Long-term hydrological dynamics and fire history over the last 2000 years in CE Europe reconstructed from a high-resolution peat archive

Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland are currently influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors that lead to peat desiccation and susceptibility to fire. Little is known about the response of Sphagnum peatland testate amoebae (TA) to the combined effects of drought and fire. To understand the relationships between hydrology and fire dynamics, we used high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoecological data to reconstruct 2000 years of mire history in northern Poland. We employed a new approach for Polish peatlands – joint TA-based water table depth and charcoal-inferred fire activity reconstructions. In addition, the response of most abundant TA hydrological indicators to charcoal-inferred fire activity was assessed. The results show four hydrological stages of peatland development: moderately wet (from ∼35 BC to 800 AD), wet (from ∼800 to 1390 AD), dry (from ∼1390 to 1700 AD) and with an instable water table (from ∼1700 to 2012 AD). Fire activity has increased in the last millennium after constant human presence in the mire surroundings. Higher fire activity caused a rise in the water table, but later an abrupt drought appeared at the onset of the Little Ice Age. This dry phase is characterized by high ash contents and high charcoal-inferred fire activity. Fires preceded hydrological change and the response of TA to fire was indirect. Peatland drying and hydrological instability was connected with TA community changes from wet (dominance of Archerella flavum, Hyalosphenia papilio, Amphitrema wrightianum) to dry (dominance of Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda); however, no clear fire indicator species was found. Anthropogenic activities can increase peat fires and cause substantial hydrology changes. Our data suggest that increased human fire activity was one of the main factors that influenced peatland hydrology, though the mire response through hydrological changes towards drier conditions was delayed in relation to the surrounding vegetation changes.

Geological and hydrological histories of the Argyre province, Mars

The geologic history of the multi-ringed Argyre impact basin and surroundings has been reconstructed on the basis of geologic mapping and relative-age dating of rock materials and structures. The impact formed a primary basin, rim materials, and a complex basement structural fabric including faults and valleys that are radial and concentric about the primary basin, as well as structurally-controlled local basins. Since its formation, the basin has been a regional catchment for volatiles and sedimentary materials as well as a dominant influence on the flow of surface ice, debris flows, and groundwater through and over its basement structures. The basin is interpreted to have been occupied by lakes, including a possible Mediterranean-sized sea that formed in the aftermath of the Argyre impact event The hypothesized lakes froze and diminished through time, though liquid water may have remained beneath the ice cover and sedimentation may have continued for some time. At its deepest, the main Argyre lake may have taken more than a hundred thousand years to freeze to the bottom even absent any heat source besides the Sun, but with impact-induced hydrothermal heat, geothermal heat flow due to long-lived radioactivities in early martian history, and concentration of solutes in sub-ice brine, liquid water may have persisted beneath thick ice for many millions of years. Existence of an ice-covered sea perhaps was long enough for life to originate and evolve with gradually colder and more hypersaline conditions. The Argyre rock materials, diverse in origin and emplacement mechanisms, have been modified by impact, magmatic, eolian, fluvial, lacustrine, glacial, periglacial, alluvial, colluvial, and tectonic processes. Post-impact adjustment of part of the impact-generated basement structural fabric such as concentric faults is apparent. Distinct basin-stratigraphic units are interpreted to be linked to large-scale geologic activity far from the basin, including growth of the Tharsis magmatic-tectonic complex and the growth into southern middle latitudes of south polar ice sheets. Along with the migration of surface and sub-surface volatiles towards the central part of the primaiy basin, the substantial difference in elevation with respect to the surrounding highlands and Tharsis and the Thaumasia highlands result in the trapping of atmospheric volatiles within the basin in the form of fog and regional or local precipitation, even today. In addition, the impact event caused long-term (millions of years) hydrothermal activity, as well as deep-seated basement structures that have tapped the internal heat of Mars, as conduits, for far greater time, possibly even today. This possibility is raised by the observation of putative open-system pingos and nearby gullies that occur in linear depressions with accompanying systems of faults and fractures. Long-term water and heat energy enrichment, complemented by the interaction of the nutrient-enriched primordial crustal and mantle materials favorable to life excavated to the surface and near-surface environs through the Argyre impact event, has not only resulted in distinct geomorphology, but also makes the Argyre basin a potential site of exceptional astrobiological significance. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

(Table 1) Conditions of vertical near-bottom profiling and the main parameters of the benthic boundary layer in several regions of the Black Sea shelf

Measurements of 14 vertical profiles of currents and hydrological parameters in the near-bottom layer with depth resolution of 0.1 m were carried out in several regions of the Black Sea shelf, at five points over the continental slope, and in three deep water regions. The upper boundary of the benthic boundary layer (BBL) was reliably determined at a point at distance from 5-7 to 35-40 m from the bottom where the gradients of density and current velocity changed. Experimental data obtained were used to determine the coefficient of bottom friction, friction velocity, coefficients of vertical diffusion of momentum and density, and vertical fluxes of temperature and salinity in the BBL.

A Hydrological Budget (2002–2008) for a Large Subtropical Wetland Ecosystem Indicates Marine Groundwater Discharge Accompanies Diminished Freshwater Flow

Water budget parameters are estimated for Shark River Slough (SRS), the main drainage within Everglades National Park (ENP) from 2002 to 2008. Inputs to the water budget include surface water inflows and precipitation while outputs consist of evapotranspiration, discharge to the Gulf of Mexico and seepage losses due to municipal wellfield extraction. The daily change in volume of SRS is equated to the difference between input and outputs yielding a residual term consisting of component errors and net groundwater exchange. Results predict significant net groundwater discharge to the SRS peaking in June and positively correlated with surface water salinity at the mangrove ecotone, lagging by 1 month. Precipitation, the largest input to the SRS, is offset by ET (the largest output); thereby highlighting the importance of increasing fresh water inflows into ENP for maintaining conditions in terrestrial, estuarine, and marine ecosystems of South Florida.

Survival and growth responses of eight Everglades tree species along an experimental hydrological gradient on two tree island types

Questions: How are the early survival and growth of seedlings of Everglades tree species planted in an experimental setting on artificial tree islands affected by hydrology and substrate type? What are the implications of these responses for broader tree island restoration efforts? Location: Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA), Boynton Beach, Florida, USA. Methods: An experiment was designed to test hydrological and substrate effects on seedling growth and survivorship. Two islands – a peat and a limestone-core island representing two major types found in the Everglades – were constructed in four macrocosms. A mixture of eight tree species was planted on each island in March of 2006 and 2007. Survival and height growth of seedlings planted in 2006 were assessed periodically during the next two and a half years. Results: Survival and growth improved with increasing elevation on both tree island substrate types. Seedlings' survival and growth responses along a moisture gradient matched species distributions along natural hydrological gradients in the Everglades. The effect of substrate on seedling performance showed higher survival of most species on the limestone tree islands, and faster growth on their peat-based counterparts. Conclusions: The present results could have profound implications for restoration of forests on existing landforms and artificial creation of tree islands. Knowledge of species tolerance to flooding and responses to different edaphic conditions present in wetlands is important in selecting suitable species to plant on restored tree islands

Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Hydrological and economic effects of oil palm cultivation in Indonesian peatlands

Oil palm has increasingly been established on peatlands throughout Indonesia. One of the concerns is that the drainage required for cultivating oil palm in peatlands leads to soil subsidence, potentially increasing future flood risks. This study analyzes the hydrological and economic effects of oil palm production in a peat landscape in Central Kalimantan. We examine two land use scenarios, one involving conversion of the complete landscape including a large peat area to oil palm plantations, and another involving mixed land use including oil palm plantations, jelutung (jungle rubber; (Dyera spp.) plantations, and natural forest. The hydrological effect was analyzed through flood risk modeling using a high-resolution digital elevation model. For the economic analysis, we analyzed four ecosystem services: oil palm production, jelutung production, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat. This study shows that after 100 years, in the oil palm scenario, about 67% of peat in the study area will be subject to regular flooding. The flood-prone area will be unsuitable for oil palm and other crops requiring drained soils. The oil palm scenario is the most profitable only in the short term and when the externalities of oil palm production, i.e., the costs of CO2 emissions, are not considered. In the examined scenarios, the social costs of carbon emissions exceed the private benefits from oil palm plantations in peat. Depending upon the local hydrology, income from jelutung, which can sustainably be grown in undrained conditions and does not lead to soil subsidence, outweighs that from oil palm after several decades. These findings illustrate the trade-offs faced at present in Indonesian peatland management and point to economic advantages of an approach that involves expansion of oil palm on mineral lands while conserving natural peat forests and using degraded peat for crops that do not require drainage.

An experiment on the parameter uncertainty of hydrological models with different levels of complexity in a climate change context

La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.

Changes in catches and biological characteristics of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus) in Lake Wamala (Uganda) under changing climatic conditions

There have been changes in catches and biological characteristics of the Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus) in Lake Wamala (Uganda) since its introduction and establishment, but the factors which have contributed to these changes are not adequately understood. This study examined changes in catches and biological characteristics of Nile tilapia in relation to changes in temperature, rainfall and lake depth to provide an understanding of the role of changing climatic conditions. There was an increase in minimum, maximum and average temperature since 1980, but only minimum (0.021ºCyr-1) and average (0.018ºCyr-1) showed a significant trend (p < 0.05). Rainfall increased by 8.25 mmyr-1 since 1950 and accounted for 79.5% of the water input into the lake while evaporation accounted for 86.2% of the water loss from the lake. The lake depth was above 4 m during the years rainfall was above normal average of 1180 mm, except during the period 2011-2014. The contribution of Nile tilapia to total catch and CPUE changed with rainfall and lake depth up to 2000, after which they decreased despite increase in rainfall. There was a strong positive correlation between lake depth and average total length of Nile tilapia (r = 0.991, p < 0.001) and length at 50% maturity (r = 0.726, p < 0.001). The length-weight allometry between high and low lake depths was significantly different [t (6) = 3.225, p < 0.05], with Nile tilapia being heavier (for a given length) at high lake depth than at low lake depth. Fecundity of Nile tilapia was higher and egg diameter lower than what is reported in literature. Nile tilapia shifted from algal dominated diet during the wet season to include more insects during the dry season. The study showed that the catches and biological characteristics of Nile tilapia change with climate and hydrological factors and these need to be considered in management of the fisheries of Lake Wamala.

Available water modifications by topsoil treatments under mediterranean semiarid conditions: afforestation plan

During dry periods in the Mediterranean area, the lack of water entering the soil matrix reduces organic contribu- tions to the soil. These processes lead to reduced soil fertility and soil vegetation recovery which creates a positive feedback process that can lead to desertification. Restoration of native vegetation is the most effective way to regenerate soil health, and control runoff and sediment yield. In Mediterranean areas, after a forestry proposal, it is highly common to register a significant number of losses for the saplings that have been introduced due to the lack of rainfall. When no vegetation is established, organic amendments can be used to rapidly protect the soil surface against the erosive forces of rain and runoff. In this study we investigated the hydrological effects of five soil treatments in relation to the temporal vari- ability of the available water for plants. Five amendments were applied in an experimental set of plots: straw mulching; mulch with chipped branches of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis L.); TerraCotten hydroabsobent polymers; sewage sludge; sheep manure and control. Plots were afforested following the same spatial pattern, and amendments were mixed with the soil at the rate 10 Mg ha-1. In control plots, during June, July, August and September, soils were registered below the wilting point, and therefore, in the area of water unusable by plants. These months were coinciding with the summer mediter- ranean drought. This fact justifies the high mortality found on plants after the seeding plan. Similarly, soils have never exceeded the field capacity value measured for control plots. Conversely, in the straw and pinus mulch, soils were above the wilting point during a longer time than in control plots. Thus, the soil moisture only has stayed below the 4.2 pF suction in July, July and August. Regarding the amount of water available was also higher, especially in the months of December, January and February. However, the field capacity value measured has not showed any differences regarding the control. For these treatments, the survival sapling rates measured were the highest. Sludge, manure and polymers showed a moisture retention capacity slightly more limited than straw and pinus mulch. Likewise, it has been found that the area of usable water by plants was also lower, especially during the months of January and February. This situation is especially sharpened in plots amended with manure. In this treatment, the upper part of the soil profile was below the wilting point for six months a year (from April to August). For this treatment, the survival sapling rates measured were the lowest. In conclusion, from a land management standpoint, the pinus and straw mulch treatments have been shown as effective methods reducing water stress for plants. In this research, mulching has been proved as a significant method to reduce the mortality sapling rates during the mediterranean summer drought.

Phosphoglucose isomerase variability of Cerastoderma glaucum as a model for testing the influence of environmental conditions and dispersal patterns through quantitative ecology approaches

Extreme conditions of coastal lagoons could directly modify the genetic patterns of species. The aim of this work was to investigate the influence of environmental conditions and small scale dispersal patterns on the phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI*) genetic variability of Cerastoderma glaucum from the Mar Menor coastal lagoon. For this purpose, 284 cockles were collected around the perimeter of the lagoon. Vertical polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis was used to scan for PGI* polymorphisms, giving a total of seven alleles. The spatial genetic distribution of the PGI* variability, which seems to be marked by the main circulation in the lagoon, discriminates four hydrological basins. In the central basin, a gradient of allelic composition reflects the circulation forced by the dominant winds and the main channel communicated to the open sea. This result is well supported by the salinity GAM model that defines this gradient. The other three basins are defined by the distribution of fine sand in a more complex model that tries to explain the isolation of the three sites localized inside these basins. The southern, western and northern basins show the lowest degree of interconnection and are considered the most confined areas of the Mar Menor lagoon. This situation agrees with the confinement theory for benthic assemblages in the lagoon. The greater degree of differentiation seen in the Isla del Ciervo population is probably due to recent human intervention on the nearby Marchamalo channel, which has been drained in recent years thus altering the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on the southern basin.

Available water modifications by topsoil treatments under mediterranean semiarid conditions: afforestation plan

During dry periods in the Mediterranean area, the lack of water entering the soil matrix reduces organic contribu- tions to the soil. These processes lead to reduced soil fertility and soil vegetation recovery which creates a positive feedback process that can lead to desertification. Restoration of native vegetation is the most effective way to regenerate soil health, and control runoff and sediment yield. In Mediterranean areas, after a forestry proposal, it is highly common to register a significant number of losses for the saplings that have been introduced due to the lack of rainfall. When no vegetation is established, organic amendments can be used to rapidly protect the soil surface against the erosive forces of rain and runoff. In this study we investigated the hydrological effects of five soil treatments in relation to the temporal vari- ability of the available water for plants. Five amendments were applied in an experimental set of plots: straw mulching; mulch with chipped branches of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis L.); TerraCotten hydroabsobent polymers; sewage sludge; sheep manure and control. Plots were afforested following the same spatial pattern, and amendments were mixed with the soil at the rate 10 Mg ha-1. In control plots, during June, July, August and September, soils were registered below the wilting point, and therefore, in the area of water unusable by plants. These months were coinciding with the summer mediter- ranean drought. This fact justifies the high mortality found on plants after the seeding plan. Similarly, soils have never exceeded the field capacity value measured for control plots. Conversely, in the straw and pinus mulch, soils were above the wilting point during a longer time than in control plots. Thus, the soil moisture only has stayed below the 4.2 pF suction in July, July and August. Regarding the amount of water available was also higher, especially in the months of December, January and February. However, the field capacity value measured has not showed any differences regarding the control. For these treatments, the survival sapling rates measured were the highest. Sludge, manure and polymers showed a moisture retention capacity slightly more limited than straw and pinus mulch. Likewise, it has been found that the area of usable water by plants was also lower, especially during the months of January and February. This situation is especially sharpened in plots amended with manure. In this treatment, the upper part of the soil profile was below the wilting point for six months a year (from April to August). For this treatment, the survival sapling rates measured were the lowest. In conclusion, from a land management standpoint, the pinus and straw mulch treatments have been shown as effective methods reducing water stress for plants. In this research, mulching has been proved as a significant method to reduce the mortality sapling rates during the mediterranean summer drought.

Effect of organic amendments on the afforestation performance of plant species on degraded semiarid conditions

Vegetation plays a fundamental role in soil conservation, so it is common to consider an increase in vegetation cover as one of the techniques to mitigate the effects of desertification in Mediterranean forest environments. There are two factors limiting the establishment and growth of seedlings in dry environments: (i) an excessive radiation and, (ii) the limited availability of water during the summer drought. During an afforestation plan, soil preparation is always necessary to reduce sapling mortality. The goal of this study was to analyze the effect of various organic amendments on soil according to chemical and hydrological properties, and to assess the effects of these parameters on an afforestal proposal under Mediterranean climate conditions. Five amendments were applied in an experimental set of plots: straw mulching (SM); mulch with chipped branches of Aleppo Pine (PM); TerraCotten hydroabsobent polymers (HP); sewage sludge (RU); sheep manure (SH) and control (C). Plots were afforested following the same spatial pattern, and amendments were mixed with the soil at the rate 10 Mg ha -1 . Under bare soil conditions (C), most of mortalities occurred during the summer period of the first year. A substantial positive effect of SM, PM and HP on the survival rates have been clearly observed. Conversely, when the soil was amended with SH, the survival rate quickly decreased or remained more or less constant regarding to C. In this study, the lack of differences on chemical properties indicates that there may exist other reasons to justify the differences that were found in the pattern of vegetation. However, regarding to the hydrological properties some differences have been found. In C, soils were registered below the wilting point during 4 months a year, and therefore, in the area of water unusable by plants. These months were coinciding with the summer Mediterranean drought and can justify the high mortality found on plants. Conversely, in SM, PM and HP, soil moisture remained below the wilting point less period than C and, the plant available water was also higher. In these treatments, the survival sapling rates measured were the highest. SH showed water holding capacity slightly more limited than C. For this treatment, the survival sapling rates measured were the lowest. In conclusion, from a land management standpoint, the PM, SM and HP have been proved as a significant method to reduce sapling mortality rates during the Mediterranean summer drought.