Support Vector Machine Approach to Downscale Precipitation in Climate Change Scenarios

Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long‐term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid‐latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio‐temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub‐division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub‐division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub‐divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

Effect of Grain Size on Structural and Magnetic Properties of CuFe2O4 Nanograins Synthesized by Chemical Co-Precipitation

CuFe2O4 nanograins have been prepared by the chemical co-precipitation technique and calcined in the temperature range of 200-1200 degrees C for 3 h. A wide range of grain sizes has been observed in this sintering temperature range, which has been determined to be 4 to 56 nm. Formation of ferrite has also been confirmed by FTIR measurement through the presence of wide band near 600 and 430 cm(-1) for the samples in the as-dried condition. Systematic variation of wave number has been observed with the variation of the calcination temperature. B-H loops exhibit transition from superparamagnetic to ferrimagnetic state above the calcination temperature of 900 degrees C. Coercivity of the samples at lower calcination temperature of 900 degrees C reduces significantly and tends towards zero coercivity, which is suggestive of superparamagnetic transition for the samples sintered below this temperature. Frequency spectrum of the real and imaginary part of complex initial permeability have been measured for the samples calcined at different temperature, which shows wide range of frequency stability. Curie temperature, T-c has been measured from temperature dependence initial permeability at a fixed frequency of 100 kHz. Although there is small variation of T-c with sintering temperature, the reduction of permeability with temperature drastically reduce for lower sintering temperature, which is in conformity with the change of B-H loops with the variation of sintering temperatures.

Synthesis of BiFeO by carbonate precipitation

Magnetoelectric multiferroic BiFeO3 (BFO) was synthesized by a simple carbonate precipitation technique of metal nitrate solutions. X-ray powder diffraction and thermo-gravimetric analysis (TGA) revealed that the precipitate consists of an intimate mixture of crystalline bismuth carbonate and an amorphous hydroxide of iron. The precipitate yielded BiFeO3 at an optimal calcination temperature of similar to 560A degrees C. Energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) analysis showed 1:1 ratio between Bi and Fe in the oxide. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) studies confirmed that Fe to be in +3 oxidation states both in the precipitated powder and BiFeO3. The synthesized BFO exhibits a very weak ferromagnetic correlation at room temperature and the degree of which increases slightly on cooling down to 10 K suggesting alteration in the long range spatial modulation of the spins arrangement as compared to the bulk BiFeO3.

State Dependent Attempt Rate modeling of single cell IEEE 802.11 WLANs with homogeneous nodes and Poisson packet arrivals

We study a State Dependent Attempt Rate (SDAR) approximation to model M queues (one queue per node) served by the Carrier Sense Multiple Access with Collision Avoidance (CSMA/CA) protocol as standardized in the IEEE 802.11 Distributed Coordination Function (DCF). The approximation is that, when n of the M queues are non-empty, the (transmission) attempt probability of each of the n non-empty nodes is given by the long-term (transmission) attempt probability of n saturated nodes. With the arrival of packets into the M queues according to independent Poisson processes, the SDAR approximation reduces a single cell with non-saturated nodes to a Markovian coupled queueing system. We provide a sufficient condition under which the joint queue length Markov chain is positive recurrent. For the symmetric case of equal arrival rates and finite and equal buffers, we develop an iterative method which leads to accurate predictions for important performance measures such as collision probability, throughput and mean packet delay. We replace the MAC layer with the SDAR model of contention by modifying the NS-2 source code pertaining to the MAC layer, keeping all other layers unchanged. By this model-based simulation technique at the MAC layer, we achieve speed-ups (w.r.t. MAC layer operations) up to 5.4. Through extensive model-based simulations and numerical results, we show that the SDAR model is an accurate model for the DCF MAC protocol in single cells. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Physically Based, Hydrologic Model Results Based on Three Precipitation Products

The main objective of the study is to examine the accuracy of and differences among simulated streamflows driven by rainfall estimates from a network of 22 rain gauges spread over a 2,170 km2 watershed, NEXRAD Stage III radar data, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 satellite data. The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), a physically based, distributed parameter, grid-structured, hydrologic model, was used to simulate the June-2002 flooding event in the Upper Guadalupe River watershed in south central Texas. There were significant differences between the rainfall fields estimated by the three types of measurement technologies. These differences resulted in even larger differences in the simulated hydrologic response of the watershed. In general, simulations driven by radar rainfall yielded better results than those driven by satellite or rain-gauge estimates. This study also presents an overview of effects of land cover changes on runoff and stream discharge. The results demonstrate that, for major rainfall events similar to the 2002 event, the effect of urbanization on the watershed in the past two decades would not have made any significant effect on the hydrologic response. The effect of urbanization on the hydrologic response increases as the size of the rainfall event decreases.

SOI strip waveguide microring resonator for homogeneous biosensing

We report the simulation and analytical results obtained for homogenous or bulk sensing of protein on Siliconon- insulator strip waveguide based microring resonator. The radii of the rings considered are 5 μm and 20 μm; the waveguide dimensions are 300 × 300 nm. A gap of (i) 200 nm and (ii) 300 nm exists between the ring and the bus waveguide. The biomaterial is uniformly distributed over a thickness which exceeds the evanescent field penetration depth of 150 nm. The sensitivities of the resonators are 32.5 nm/RIU and 17.5 nm/RIU (RIU - Refractive index unit) respectively.

Organophotocatalysis in nanostructured soft gel materials as tunable reaction vessels: comparison with homogeneous and micellar solutions

Riboflavin tetraacetate-catalyzed aerobic photooxidation of 1-(4-methoxyphenyl)ethanol was investigated as a model reaction under blue visible light in different soft gel materials, aiming to establish their potential as reaction vessels for photochemical transformations. Three strategies involving different degrees of organization of the catalyst within the gel network were explored, and the results compared to those obtained in homogeneous and micellar solutions. In general, physical entrapment of both the catalyst and the substrate under optimized concentrations into several hydrogel matrices (including low-molecular-weight and biopolymer-based gels) allowed the photooxidation with conversions between 55 and 100% within 120 min (TOF similar to 0.045-0.08 min(-1); k(obs) similar to 0.011-0.028 min(-1)), albeit with first-order rates ca. 1-3-fold lower than in solution under comparable non-stirred conditions. Remarkably, the organogel made of a cyclohexane-based bisamide gelator in CH3CN not only prevented the photodegradation of the catalyst but also afforded full conversion in less than 60 min (TOF similar to 0.167 min(-1); k(obs) similar to 0.073 min(-1)) without the need of additional proton transfer mediators (e. g., thiourea) as it occurs in CH3CN solutions. In general, the gelators could be recycled without detriment to their gelation ability and reaction rates. Moreover, kinetics could be fine-tuned according to the characteristics of the gel media. For instance, entangled fibrillar networks with relatively high mechanical strength were usually associated with lower reaction rates, whereas wrinkled laminated morphologies seemed to favor the reaction. In addition, the kinetics results showed in most cases a good correlation with the aeration efficiency of the gel media.

Synthesis, microstructure and thermal expansion studies on Ca0 center dot 5+x/2Sr0 center dot 5+x/2Zr4P6-2x Si-2x O-24 system prepared by co-precipitation method

We report on the synthesis, microstructure and thermal expansion studies on Ca0 center dot 5 + x/2Sr0 center dot 5 + x/2Zr4P6 -aEuro parts per thousand 2x Si-2x O-24 (x = 0 center dot 00 to 1 center dot 00) system which belongs to NZP family of low thermal expansion ceramics. The ceramics synthesized by co-precipitation method at lower calcination and the sintering temperatures were in pure NZP phase up to x = 0 center dot 37. For x a parts per thousand yen 0 center dot 5, in addition to NZP phase, ZrSiO4 and Ca2P2O7 form as secondary phases after sintering. The bulk thermal expansion behaviour of the members of this system was studied from 30 to 850 A degrees C. The thermal expansion coefficient increases from a negative value to a positive value with the silicon substitution in place of phosphorous and a near zero thermal expansion was observed at x = 0 center dot 75. The amount of hysteresis between heating and cooling curves increases progressively from x = 0 center dot 00 to 0 center dot 37 and then decreases for x > 0 center dot 37. The results were analysed on the basis of formation of the silicon based glassy phase and increase in thermal expansion anisotropy with silicon substitution.

Free energy barriers for homogeneous crystal nucleation in a eutectic system of binary hard spheres

In this study, the free energy barriers for homogeneous crystal nucleation in a system that exhibits a eutectic point are computed using Monte Carlo simulations. The system studied is a binary hard sphere mixture with a diameter ratio of 0.85 between the smaller and larger hard spheres. The simulations of crystal nucleation are performed for the entire range of fluid compositions. The free energy barrier is found to be the highest near the eutectic point and is nearly five times that for the pure fluid, which slows down the nucleation rate by a factor of 10(-31). These free energy barriers are some of highest ever computed using simulations. For most of the conditions studied, the composition of the critical nucleus corresponds to either one of the two thermodynamically stable solid phases. However, near the eutectic point, the nucleation barrier is lowest for the formation of the metastable random hexagonal closed packed (rhcp) solid phase with composition lying in the two-phase region of the phase diagram. The fluid to solid phase transition is hypothesized to proceed via formation of a metastable rhcp phase followed by a phase separation into respective stable fcc solid phases.

Fast Eigen solution for homogeneous quadratic minimization with at most three constraints

We propose an eigenvalue based technique to solve the Homogeneous Quadratic Constrained Quadratic Programming problem (HQCQP) with at most three constraints which arise in many signal processing problems. Semi-Definite Relaxation (SDR) is the only known approach and is computationally intensive. We study the performance of the proposed fast eigen approach through simulations in the context of MIMO relays and show that the solution converges to the solution obtained using the SDR approach with significant reduction in complexity.

Elliptical tracers in two-dimensional, homogeneous, isotropic fluid turbulence: The statistics of alignment, rotation, and nematic order

We study the statistical properties of orientation and rotation dynamics of elliptical tracer particles in two-dimensional, homogeneous, and isotropic turbulence by direct numerical simulations. We consider both the cases in which the turbulent flow is generated by forcing at large and intermediate length scales. We show that the two cases are qualitatively different. For large-scale forcing, the spatial distribution of particle orientations forms large-scale structures, which are absent for intermediate-scale forcing. The alignment with the local directions of the flow is much weaker in the latter case than in the former. For intermediate-scale forcing, the statistics of rotation rates depends weakly on the Reynolds number and on the aspect ratio of particles. In contrast with what is observed in three-dimensional turbulence, in two dimensions the mean-square rotation rate increases as the aspect ratio increases.

Effect of pH on structural and magnetic properties of nanocrystalline Y3Fe5O12 by aqueous co-precipitation method

The Y3Fe5O12 (YIG) nanopowders were synthesised at different pH using co-precipitation method. The effect of pH on the phase formation of YIG is characterised using XRD, TEM, FTIR and TG/DTA. From the Scherer formula, the particle sizes of the powders were found to be 13, 19 and 28 nm for pH=10, 11 and 12 respectively. It is found that as the pH of the solution increase the particle size is also increases. It is also clear from the TG/DTA curves that as the pH is increasing the weight losses were found to be small. The nanopowders were sintered at 600, 700, 800 and 900 degrees C for 5 h using conventional sintering method. The phase formation is completed at 800 degrees C/5 h which is correlated with TG/DTA. The average grain size of the samples is found to be similar to 161 nm. The high values of M-s=23 emu g(-1) and H-c=22 Oe were recorded for the sample sintered at 900 degrees C.