Modelling the potential spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) (red imported fire ant) in Australia

Quantifying the potential spread and density of an invading organism enables decision-makers to determine the most appropriate response to incursions. We present two linked models that estimate the spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (red imported fire ant) in Australia based on limited data gathered after its discovery in Brisbane in 2001. A stochastic cellular automaton determines spread within a location (100 km by 100 km) and this is coupled with a model that simulates human-mediated movement of S. invicta to new locations. In the absence of any control measures, the models predict that S. invicta could cover 763 000–4 066 000 km2 by the year 2035 and be found at 200 separate locations around Australia by 2017–2027, depending on the rate of spread. These estimated rates of expansion (assuming no control efforts were in place) are higher than those experienced in the USA in the 1940s during the early invasion phases in that country. Active control efforts and quarantine controls in the USA (including a concerted eradication attempt in the 1960s) may have slowed spread. Further, milder winters, the presence of the polygynous social form, increased trade and human mobility in Australia in 2000s compared with the USA in 1940s could contribute to faster range expansion.

Tactical Pasture Management: Enhancing Profits from Poplar Box Country

The project assembled basic information to allow effective management and manipulation of native pastures in the southern Maranoa region of Queensland. This involved a range of plant studies, including a grazing trial, to quantify the costs of poor pasture composition. While the results focus on perennial grasses, we recognise the important dietary role played by broad-leaved herbs. The plant manipulation studies focussed on ways to change the proportions of plants in a grazed pasture, eg. by recruitment or accelerated morbidity of existing plants. As most perennial grasses have a wide range of potential flowering times outside of mid-winter, rainfall exerts the major influence on flowering and seedset; exceptions are black speargrass, rough speargrass and golden beardgrass that flower only for a restricted period each year. This simplifies potential control options through reducing seedset. Data from field growth studies of four pasture grasses have been used to refine the State's pasture production model GRASP. We also provide detailed data on the forage value of many native species at different growth stages. Wiregrass dominance in pastures on a sandy red earth reduced wool value by only 5-10% at Roma in 1994/95 when winters were very dry and grass seed problems were minimal.

Ion irradiation as a tool for modifying the surface and optical properties of plasma polymerised thin films

Radio frequency (R.F.) glow discharge polyterpenol thin films were prepared on silicon wafers and irradiated with I10+ ions to fluences of 1 × 1010 and 1 × 1012 ions/cm2. Post-irradiation characterisation of these films indicated the development of well-defined nano-scale ion entry tracks, highlighting prospective applications for ion irradiated polyterpenol thin films in a variety of membrane and nanotube-fabrication functions. Optical characterisation showed the films to be optically transparent within the visible spectrum and revealed an ability to selectively control the thin film refractive index as a function of fluence. This indicates that ion irradiation processing may be employed to produce plasma-polymer waveguides to accommodate a variety of wavelengths. XRR probing of the substrate-thin film interface revealed interfacial roughness values comparable to those obtained for the uncoated substrate's surface (i.e., both on the order of 5 Å), indicating minimal substrate etching during the plasma deposition process.

Antibody Responses to Sarcoptes scabiei Apolipoprotein in a Porcine Model: Relevance to Immunodiagnosis of Recent Infection

No commercial immunodiagnostic tests for human scabies are currently available, and existing animal tests are not sufficiently sensitive. The recombinant Sarcoptes scabiei apolipoprotein antigen Sar s 14.3 is a promising immunodiagnostic, eliciting high levels of IgE and IgG in infected people. Limited data are available regarding the temporal development of antibodies to Sar s 14.3, an issue of relevance in terms of immunodiagnosis. We utilised a porcine model to prospectively compare specific antibody responses to a primary infestation by ELISA, to Sar s 14.3 and to S. scabiei whole mite antigen extract (WMA). Differences in the antibody profile between antigens were apparent, with Sar s 14.3 responses detected earlier, and declining significantly after peak infestation compared to WMA. Both antigens resulted in >90% diagnostic sensitivity from weeks 8–16 post infestation. These data provide important information on the temporal development of humoral immune responses in scabies and further supports the development of recombinant antigen based immunodiagnostic tests for recent scabies infestations.

The water relations and irrigation requirements of lychee (litchi chinensis sonn.): a review

The results of research into the water relations and irrigation requirements of lychee are collated and reviewed. The stages of plant development are summarised, with an emphasis on factors influencing the flowering process. This is followed by reviews of plant water relations, water requirements, water productivity and, finally, irrigation systems. The lychee tree is native to the rainforests of southern China and northern Vietnam, and the main centres of production remain close to this area. In contrast, much of the research on the water relations of this crop has been conducted in South Africa, Australia and Israel where the tree is relatively new. Vegetative growth occurs in a series of flushes. Terminal inflorescences are borne on current shoot growth under cool (<15 °C), dry conditions. Trees generally do not produce fruit in the tropics at altitudes below 300 m. Poor and erratic flowering results in low and irregular fruit yields. Drought can enhance flowering in locations with dry winters. Roots can extract water from depths greater than 2 m. Diurnal trends in stomatal conductance closely match those of leaf water status. Both variables mirror changes in the saturation deficit of the air. Very little research on crop water requirements has been reported. Crop responses to irrigation are complex. In areas with low rainfall after harvest, a moderate water deficit before floral initiation can increase flowering and yield. In contrast, fruit set and yield can be reduced by a severe water deficit after flowering, and the risk of fruit splitting increased. Water productivity has not been quantified. Supplementary irrigation in South-east Asia is limited by topography and competition for water from the summer rice crop, but irrigation is practised in Israel, South Africa, Australia and some other places. Research is needed to determine the benefits of irrigation in different growing areas. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013.

Crusted scabies is associated with increased IL-17 secretion by skin T cells

Scabies is an ectoparasitic infestation by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei. Although commonly self-limiting, a fraction of patients develop severely debilitating crusted scabies. The immune mechanisms underlying the development of crusted scabies are unclear, and undertaking longitudinal infection studies in humans is difficult. We utilized a porcine model to compare cellular immune responses in peripheral blood and skin of pigs with different clinical manifestations of scabies (n = 12), and in uninfected controls (n = 6). Although clinical symptoms were not evident until at least 4 weeks post-infestation, the numbers of peripheral IFNγ-secreting CD4+ T cells and γδ T cells increased in infected pigs from week 1 post-infestation. γδ T cells remained increased in the blood at week 15 post-infestation. At week 15, skin cell infiltrates from pigs with crusted scabies had significantly higher CD8+ T cell, γδ T cell and IL-17+ cell numbers than those with ordinary scabies. Peripheral IL-17 levels were not increased, suggesting that localized skin IL-17-secreting T cells may play a critical role in the pathogenesis of crusted scabies development. Given the potential of anti-IL-17 immunotherapy demonstrated for other inflammatory skin diseases, this study may provide a novel therapeutic avenue for patients with recurrent crusted scabies.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Reconstructions of past climates from documentary and natural sources in Finland since the 18th century

In this paper both documentary and natural proxy data have been used to improve the accuracy of palaeoclimatic knowledge in Finland since the 18th century. Early meteorological observations from Turku (1748-1800) were analyzed first as a potential source of climate variability. The reliability of the calculated mean temperatures was evaluated by comparing them with those of contemporary temperature records from Stockholm, St. Petersburg and Uppsala. The resulting monthly, seasonal and yearly mean temperatures from 1748 to 1800 were compared with the present day mean values (1961-1990): the comparison suggests that the winters of the period 1749-1800 were 0.8 ºC colder than today, while the summers were 0.4 ºC warmer. Over the same period, springs were 0.9 ºC and autumns 0.1 ºC colder than today. Despite their uncertainties when compared with modern meteorological data, early temperature measurements offer direct and daily information about the weather for all months of the year, in contrast with other proxies. Secondly, early meteorological observations from Tornio (1737-1749) and Ylitornio (1792-1838) were used to study the temporal behaviour of the climate-tree growth relationship during the past three centuries in northern Finland. Analyses showed that the correlations between ring widths and mid-summer (July) temperatures did not vary significantly as a function of time. Early (June) and late summer (August) mean temperatures were secondary to mid-summer temperatures in controlling the radial growth. According the dataset used, there was no clear signature of temporally reduced sensitivity of Scots pine ring widths to mid-summer temperatures over the periods of early and modern meteorological observations. Thirdly, plant phenological data with tree-rings from south-west Finland since 1750 were examined as a palaeoclimate indicator. The information from the fragmentary, partly overlapping, partly nonsystematically biased plant phenological records of 14 different phenomena were combined into one continuous time series of phenological indices. The indices were found to be reliable indicators of the February to June temperature variations. In contrast, there was no correlation between the phenological indices and the precipitation data. Moreover, the correlations between the studied tree-rings and spring temperatures varied as a function of time and hence, their use in palaeoclimate reconstruction is questionable. The use of present tree-ring datasets for palaeoclimate purposes may become possible after the application of more sophisticated calibration methods. Climate variability since the 18th century is perhaps best seen in the fourth paper study of the multiproxy spring temperature reconstruction of south-west Finland. With the help of transfer functions, an attempt has been made to utilize both documentary and natural proxies. The reconstruction was verified with statistics showing a high degree of validity between the reconstructed and observed temperatures. According to the proxies and modern meteorological observations from Turku, springs have become warmer and have featured a warming trend since around the 1850s. Over the period of 1750 to around 1850, springs featured larger multidecadal low-frequency variability, as well as a smaller range of annual temperature variations. The coldest springtimes occurred around the 1840s and 1850s and the first decade of the 19th century. Particularly warm periods occurred in the 1760s, 1790s, 1820s, 1930s, 1970s and from 1987 onwards, although in this period cold springs occurred, such as the springs of 1994 and 1996. On the basis of the available material, long-term temperature changes have been related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (February-June).

The Electronic Structure of Graphite from Compton Profile Measurements

Compton profile data are used to investigate the ground state wavefunction of graphite. The results of two new $\gamma$-ray measurements are reported and compared with the results of earlier $\gamma$-ray and electron scattering measurements. A tight-binding calculation has been carried out and the results of earlier calculations based on a molecular model and a pseudo-potential wavefunction are considered. The analysis, in terms of the reciprocal form factor, shows that none of the calculations gives an adequate description of the data in the basal plane although the pseudo-potential calculation describes the anisotropy in the plane reasonably well. In the basal plane the zero-crossing theorem appears to be violated and this problem must be resolved before more accurate models can be derived. In the c-axis direction the molecular model and the tight binding calculation give better agreement with the experimental data than does the pseudopotential calculation.

Climate forcing on avian life history

In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.

Havupuiden erikoismuotojen lisäysmenetelmät

Havupuiden erikoismuotoja on käytetty koristekasveina jo vuosisatoja ympäri maailmaa. Niitä on lisätty pääsääntöisesti pistokkaista ja varttamalla. Suomessa kotimaisten metsäpuidemme erikois-muotoja on kartoitettu ja kerätty kokoelmiin järjestelmällisemmin 1960-luvulta alkaen. Taimisto-viljelijät, puutarhasuunnittelijat ja kotipuutarhurit ovat olleet enenevässä määrin kiinnostuneita näistä kotimaisista kestävistä havukasveista. Yli 90 prosenttia markkinoillamme olevista havukas-veista tuodaan ulkomailta, joten on selvää, että niiden talvenkestävyydessä on ongelmia. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää kotimaisille erikoismuodoille sopivia lisäysmene-telmiä ja siten edistää kotimaisen havukasvituotannon mahdollisuuksia. Aineistona kokeissa oli kotimaisia erikoismuotoja metsäkuusesta (Picea abies (L.) Karsten) ja kotikatajasta (Juniperus communis L.), tavallisia metsäkuusia sekä kahdeksan ulkomaista havupuutaksonia. Lisäysmene-telmistä tutkittiin varttamista ja pistokaslisäystä ja kokeet suoritettiin Metsäntutkimuslaitoksen toimipaikoissa Lopen Haapastensyrjässä sekä Punkaharjulla. Varttamiskokeessa vertailtiin koti-maisen kuusen erikoismuotokloonien varttamisen onnistumista. Pistokaskokeissa tutkittiin geno-tyypin, emopuun iän, pistokasoksan sijainnin sekä hormonikäsittelyn vaikutusta havukasvien pis-tokkaiden juurtumiseen. Tavalliset metsäkuuset toimivat kontrolleina. Tutkimus osoitti, että varttaminen onnistui erinomaisesti kaikilla erikoismuotoklooneilla. Ovat-ko vartteet esteettisesti katsottuna koristekäyttöön sopivia, jää vielä seurattavaksi. Pistokaskokeis-sa havaittiin, että juveniilisuus vaikutti pistokkaiden juurtumiseen, mutta iäkkäistäkin puista lisää-minen onnistuu, kunhan genotyyppi on sopiva. Keskimäärin alaoksat juurtuivat paremmin kuin latvuksen yläosista otetut pistokasoksat, mutta vain yhdellä kloonilla ero oli tilastollisesti merkit-sevä. Hormonikäsittely heikensi selvästi kotimaisen kuusen ja katajan pistokkaiden juurtumista, mutta ulkomaisiin havupuulajeihin käsittelyllä ei ollut vaikutusta. Kotimaisen havukasvituotannon pohjaksi pitäisi tehdä kloonivalintaa, jossa koristearvon lisäksi otettaisiin huomioon myös kloonin lisättävyys. Taimien tuottaminen pistokkaista on selvästi edul-lisempaa kuin vartteiden tuottaminen, joskin varte kasvaa myyntikuntoon nopeammin kuin pisto-kastaimi. Pistokastaimi on kuitenkin omajuurinen ja stabiilimpi kasvutavaltaan kuin varte. Tämä korostuu etenkin kääpiömuotoja tuotettaessa.

Using a botanic garden collection to test a bioclimatic vegetation scheme

Vegetation maps and bioclimatic zone classifications communicate the vegetation of an area and are used to explain how the environment regulates the occurrence of plants on large scales. Many practises and methods for dividing the world’s vegetation into smaller entities have been presented. Climatic parameters, floristic characteristics, or edaphic features have been relied upon as decisive factors, and plant species have been used as indicators for vegetation types or zones. Systems depicting vegetation patterns that mainly reflect climatic variation are termed ‘bioclimatic’ vegetation maps. Based on these it has been judged logical to deduce that plants moved between corresponding bioclimatic areas should thrive in the target location, whereas plants moved from a different zone should languish. This principle is routinely applied in forestry and horticulture but actual tests of the validity of bioclimatic maps in this sense seem scanty. In this study I tested the Finnish bioclimatic vegetation zone system (BZS). Relying on the plant collection of Helsinki University Botanic Garden’s Kumpula collection, which according to the BZS is situated at the northern limit of the hemiboreal zone, I aimed to test how the plants’ survival depends on their provenance. My expectation was that plants from the hemiboreal or southern boreal zones should do best in Kumpula, whereas plants from more southern and more northern zones should show progressively lower survival probabilities. I estimated probability of survival using collection database information of plant accessions of known wild origin grown in Kumpula since the mid 1990s, and logistic regression models. The total number of accessions I included in the analyses was 494. Because of problems with some accessions I chose to separately analyse a subset of the complete data, which included 379 accessions. I also analysed different growth forms separately in order to identify differences in probability of survival due to different life strategies. In most analyses accessions of temperate and hemiarctic origin showed lower survival probability than those originating from any of the boreal subzones, which among them exhibited rather evenly high probabilities. Exceptionally mild and wet winters during the study period may have killed off hemiarctic plants. Some winters may have been too harsh for temperate accessions. Trees behaved differently: they showed an almost steadily increasing survival probability from temperate to northern boreal origins. Various factors that could not be controlled for may have affected the results, some of which were difficult to interpret. This was the case in particular with herbs, for which the reliability of the analysis suffered because of difficulties in managing their curatorial data. In all, the results gave some support to the BZS, and especially its hierarchical zonation. However, I question the validity of the formulation of the hypothesis I tested since it may not be entirely justified by the BZS, which was designed for intercontinental comparison of vegetation zones, but not specifically for transcontinental provenance trials. I conclude that botanic gardens should pay due attention to information management and curational practices to ensure the widest possible applicability of their plant collections.

Structure of the Indian southwesterly pre-monsoon and monsoon boundary layers: Observations and numerical simulation

Characteristics of pre-monsoon and monsoon boundary layer structure and turbulence were studied in New Delhi and Bangalore, India during the summer of 1987. Micrometeorological towers were installed and instrumented at these locations to provide mean and turbulent surface layer measurements, while information on the vertical structure of the atmosphere was obtained using miniradiosondes. Thermal structures of the pre-monsoon and monsoon boundary layers were quite distinct. The daytime, pre-monsoon boundary layer observed over New Delhi was much deeper than that of the monsoon boundary layer observed over Bangalore and at times was characterized by multiple inversions. Surface, turbulent sensible heat fluxes at both sites were approximately the same (235 and 200 Wm−2 for New Delhi and Bangalore, respectively). Diurnal variations in the monsoon boundary layer at Bangalore were more regular compared to those under pre-monsoon conditions at New Delhi. One-dimensional numerical simulations of the pre-monsoon boundary layer using a turbulent energy closure scheme show good agreement with observations.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.

Timotein (Phleum pratense ssp. pratense L.) alkuperän vaikutus kylmänkestävyyteen, vernalisaatiovaatimukseen sekä kasvuun ja kehitykseen

Nurmiheinien merkitys maailmanlaajuisesti on merkittävä, sillä noin 69 % maapallon peltopinta-alasta on pysyvää laidunmaata tai niittyä. Suomessa nurmien osuus on noin 29 %, ja tuotanto perustuu pääosin intensiiviseen säilörehuntuotantoon. Yleisin nurmiheinälaji Suomessa on timotei (Phleum pratense ssp. pratense L.). Timotei on talvenkestävä ja soveltuu siksi pohjoisiin kasvuoloihin. Timoteilajikkeita jalostettaessa pohjoista alkuperää olevia vanhempaislinjoja käytetään hyvän talvenkestävyyden varmistamiseksi, eteläisiä tavoiteltaessa nopeaa kasvurytmiä. Ilmaston muutoksen ennustetaan lisäävän erilaisia äärioloja kuten myrskyjä ja sateita. Vuorokauden keskilämpötila nousee ja kasvukausi pidentyy. Lisäksi talvet muuttuvat sateisemmiksi. Muutokset näkyvät erityisesti pohjoisissa kasvuympäristöissä. Tutkimuksessa haluttiinkin selvittää eri alkuperää edustavien timoteilajikkeiden ja linjojen kylmänkestävyyttä, kasvu-, ja kehitysnopeutta sekä vernalisaation vaikutusta. Lisäksi tutkittiin syysviljojen vernalisaatiovasteen mittaamiseen käytettyjen menetelmien soveltuvuutta nurmille. Tutkimukseen kuului kaksivuotinen peltokoe sekä kasvatuskaappikoe. Vernalisaatio nopeutti timotein kasvua ja kehitystä. Tutkimuksen perusteella eteläistä alkuperää olevilla lajikkeilla kasvu- ja kukintavalmius oli olemassa ilman vernalisaatiota. Pohjoisilla lajikkeilla oli suurempi vernalisaatiovaste ja niiden kukkiminen ja kasvu nopeutui vernalisaation myötä. Vernalisaatiolla oli vaikutusta myös kasvuston rakenteeseen. Generatiivisten versojen määrä lisääntyi vernalisaation myötä, kun taas vegetatiivisten versojen määrä väheni. Kylmänkestävyys oli tutkimuksen perusteella riippuvainen syksyn karaistumisjakson pituudesta sekä jakson lämpösummasta (FH-COLD). Korkea keskilämpötila ja lyhyt karaistumisjakso heikensivät kylmänkestävyyttä. Vastaavasti karaistumiskauden lämpötilan ollessa välillä 0 °C:ta ja + 5 °C:ta ja jakson pituuden kasvaessa kylmänkestävyys lisääntyi. Tutkimuksen perusteella vernalisaatiolla oli selvä vaikutus timotein kasvuun ja kehitykseen. Pohjoista alkuperää olevat timoteit reagoivat vernalisaatioon eteläisiä enemmän. Osa pohjoisista linjoista vaati vernalisaation generatiivisten versojen muodostumiseen. Syysviljojen vernalisaatiovasteen mittausmenetelmät soveltuvat osin myös puhtaiden timoteilajikkeiden vernalisaation seurantaan.