Rethinking the Russian Revolution as historical divide

This monograph is the product of a series of workshops held in the UK and the USA, the premise of which was to suggest that 1917 is the wrong departure point for a full analysis of the social and cultural particularities of the Soviet Union. Breaking away from the binary of ‘change and continuity’, however, we asked how the new and the old (tradition and modernity) came together to make the Soviet experience ‘across 1917’. Building on these workshops, we have gathered 15 scholars from America, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East to contribute to this edition. This volume examines, among other things, the social and cultural frameworks that helped determine Soviet perceptions of social duty, justice, and governance.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Evolution and historical biogeography of the Eastern Atlantic skates

In my thesis, I tested the hypothesis that the diversification of the Eastern Atlantic skate faunas arose through vicariance rather than dispersal, using combined approach of molecular phylogeny reconstruction and zoogeography (namely historical biogeography). This analyses have been carried out independently on four Rajidae genera belonging to two different tribes: Rajini (Raja and Dipturus) and Amblyrajini (Rajella and Leucoraja). These taxa were selected because they displayed high species diversity and richness of endemic species in the Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean. The verification of this hypothesis was carried out by reconstructing the best phylogenetic relationships among four genera and 26 species (including several endemism) based on mtDNA and nuDNA gene variation and several statistical approaches. Divergence times of taxa have been estimated based on molecular clock and fossil calibration to explain evolutionary patterns in the context of geological framework. Main issues are (i) the evidence that Eastern Atlantic skate evolution and displacement of species diversity occurred from pulsed geographical speciation (i.e. repeated series of parallel and independent speciation events) started in the Late Eocene-Early Miocene and they have occurred prevalently during Miocene; (ii) such relatively ancient origin of diversification has been allowed the sympatric displacement and evolution of several congeneric taxa likely because they have accumulated huge differences in the genomic and physiological/behavioural phenotypic traits; (iii) recently diverged sister species and taxa showed allopatric or parapatric evolution by the presence of oceanographic or hydrogeographical barriers which likely prevent large mixing between parapatric sister species.

Molecular phylogeny and historical zoogeography of four genera of Eastern Atlantic skates (Rajiformes, Rajidae)

The aim of this study was to reconstruct a solid phylogeny of four genera of the Rajidae family (Chondrichthyans: Batoidea) using a concatenated alignment of mtDNA genes. Then use the resultant tree to estimate divergence time between taxa based on molecular clock and fossil calibration and conduct biogeographic analysis. The intent was to prove that the actual distribution of species of Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean skates is due to a series of vicariant events. The species considered belongs to two different tribe: Rajini (Raja and Dipturus) and Amblyrajini (Leucoraja and Rajella). The choice of this genera is due to their high presence in the area of interest and to the richness of endemic species. The results show that despite the ancient origin of Rajidae (97 MYA), the Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean faunas originated more recently, during Middle Miocene-Late Pliocene, after the closure of connection between these areas and the Indo-Pacific ocean (15 MYA). The endemic species of the Mediterranean (Raja asterias, R. radula, R. polystigma and Leucoraja melitensis) originated after the Messinian salinity crisis (7-5 MYA), when the recolonization of the basin occurred, and are still maintained in allopatric distribution by the presence of biogeographic barriers. Moreover from 4 to 2.6 MYA we can observe the formation of sister species for Raja, Leucoraja and Rajella, one of which has a Northern distribution, and the other has a Southern distribution (R. clavata vs R. straeleni, L. wallacei vs L. naevus, R. fyllae vs R. caudaspinosa and R. kukujevi vs R. leopardus + R. barnardi). The Quaternary and present oceanographic discontinuities that occur along the western African continental shelf (e.g., Cape Blanc and the Angola–Benguela Front) might contribute to the maintenance of low or null levels of gene flow between these closely related siblings species. Also sympatric speciation must be invoked to explain the evolution of skates, for example for the division between R. leopardus and R. barnardi. The speciation processes followed a south-to-north pathways for Dipturus and a north-to-south pathways for Raja, Leucoraja and Rajella underling that the evolution of the genera occurred independently. In the end, it is conceivable that the evolutionary pathways of the tribes followed the costal line during the gondwana fragmentation. The results demonstrate that the evolution of this family is characterized by a series of parallel and independent speciation events, strictly correlated to the tectonic movement of continental masses and paleogeographic and paleoclimatic events and so can be explained by a panbiogeographical (vicariance) model.

The Evolution of Media Coverage of Historical Sports Controversies

This thesis will cover sports controversies throughout the 20th Century in the context of the media’s newspaper coverage of the events. The 1919 Black Sox Scandal, the debate over American participation in the 1936 Olympics, and Muhammad Ali’s conversion to the Nation of Islam, standing as a notorious public figure, and conscientious objection to the Vietnam War will represent the three sports controversies. The media’s adherence to cultural norms is clear in all three cases. The consistent devotion to the cultural and racial atmosphere of their respective eras was constant and helped to perpetuate accepted, mainstream cultural attitudes. Cultural and racial norms were followed in the coverage of the three discussed controversies. The anti-Semitism and racially intolerant sentiments in America during great waves of immigration in the early 1900s allowed for journalists to freely vilify Jews as corrupters of baseball and the ballplayers who were rumored to have thrown the 1919 World Series. The white ballplayers were supported in the press, who protected their own and blamed outsiders. Jim Crow and the Americanization movement forced African American and Jewish newspapers to limit their journalistic bias on both sides of the debate over American participation in the 1936 Berlin Olympics. The white, mainstream press was void of bias as the spirit of isolationism in America triumphed over journalist’s leanings in the Olympic debate. The racial tension created by the Civil Rights movement of the 1960s created an atmosphere that allowed mainstream journalists to heap endless criticism on Muhammad Ali as he gained fame. By portraying him as a villain of society as both a religious radical and traitor to America, journalists created a common enemy in the minds of white America. In all three cases, a pattern of journalists expressing the state of cultural and racial norms of the era is present and significant.

A physics-based correction model for homogenizing sub-daily temperature series

A new physics-based technique for correcting inhomogeneities present in sub-daily temperature records is proposed. The approach accounts for changes in the sensor-shield characteristics that affect the energy balance dependent on ambient weather conditions (radiation, wind). An empirical model is formulated that reflects the main atmospheric processes and can be used in the correction step of a homogenization procedure. The model accounts for short- and long-wave radiation fluxes (including a snow cover component for albedo calculation) of a measurement system, such as a radiation shield. One part of the flux is further modulated by ventilation. The model requires only cloud cover and wind speed for each day, but detailed site-specific information is necessary. The final model has three free parameters, one of which is a constant offset. The three parameters can be determined, e.g., using the mean offsets for three observation times. The model is developed using the example of the change from the Wild screen to the Stevenson screen in the temperature record of Basel, Switzerland, in 1966. It is evaluated based on parallel measurements of both systems during a sub-period at this location, which were discovered during the writing of this paper. The model can be used in the correction step of homogenization to distribute a known mean step-size to every single measurement, thus providing a reasonable alternative correction procedure for high-resolution historical climate series. It also constitutes an error model, which may be applied, e.g., in data assimilation approaches.

Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

Historical weather extremes in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Meteorological or climatological extremes are rare and hence studying them requires long meteorological data sets. Moreover, for addressing the underlying atmospheric processes, detailed three-dimensional data are desired. Until recently the two requirements were incompatible as long meteorological series were only available for a few locations, whereas detailed 3-dimensional data sets such as reanalyses were limited to the past few decades. In 2011, the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR) was released, a 6-hourly global atmospheric data set covering the past 140 years, thus combining the two properties. The collection of short papers in this volume contains case studies of individual extreme events in the 20CR data set. In this overview paper we introduce the first six cases and summarise some common findings. All of the events are represented in 20CR in a physically consistent way, allowing further meteorological interpretations and process studies. Also, for most of the events, the magnitudes are underestimated in the ensemble mean. Possible causes are addressed. For interpreting extrema it may be necessary to address individual ensemble members. Also, the density of observations underlying 20CR should be considered. Finally, we point to problems in wind speeds over the Arctic and the northern North Pacific in 20CR prior to the 1950s.

Implementation of active surveillance cultures and associated infection control practices for the reduction of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the healthcare setting: An interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVE. To determine the effectiveness of active surveillance cultures and associated infection control practices on the incidence of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in the acute care setting. DESIGN. A historical analysis of existing clinical data utilizing an interrupted time series design. ^ SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS. Patients admitted to a 260-bed tertiary care facility in Houston, TX between January 2005 through December 2010. ^ INTERVENTION. Infection control practices, including enhanced barrier precautions, compulsive hand hygiene, disinfection and environmental cleaning, and executive ownership and education, were simultaneously introduced during a 5-month intervention implementation period culminating with the implementation of active surveillance screening. Beginning June 2007, all high risk patients were cultured for MRSA nasal carriage within 48 hours of admission. Segmented Poisson regression was used to test the significance of the difference in incidence of healthcare-associated MRSA during the 29-month pre-intervention period compared to the 43-month post-intervention period. ^ RESULTS. A total of 9,957 of 11,095 high-risk patients (89.7%) were screened for MRSA carriage during the intervention period. Active surveillance cultures identified 1,330 MRSA-positive patients (13.4%) contributing to an admission prevalence of 17.5% in high-risk patients. The mean rate of healthcare-associated MRSA infection and colonization decreased from 1.1 per 1,000 patient-days in the pre-intervention period to 0.36 per 1,000 patient-days in the post-intervention period (P<0.001). The effect of the intervention in association with the percentage of S. aureus isolates susceptible to oxicillin were shown to be statistically significantly associated with the incidence of MRSA infection and colonization (IRR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.31-0.80 and IRR = 0.004, 95% CI = 0.00003-0.40, respectively). ^ CONCLUSIONS. It can be concluded that aggressively targeting patients at high risk for colonization of MRSA with active surveillance cultures and associated infection control practices as part of a multifaceted, hospital-wide intervention is effective in reducing the incidence of healthcare-associated MRSA.^

Event-based time series data preprocessing: application to traffic flow time series

Traffic flow time series data are usually high dimensional and very complex. Also they are sometimes imprecise and distorted due to data collection sensor malfunction. Additionally, events like congestion caused by traffic accidents add more uncertainty to real-time traffic conditions, making traffic flow forecasting a complicated task. This article presents a new data preprocessing method targeting multidimensional time series with a very high number of dimensions and shows its application to real traffic flow time series from the California Department of Transportation (PEMS web site). The proposed method consists of three main steps. First, based on a language for defining events in multidimensional time series, mTESL, we identify a number of types of events in time series that corresponding to either incorrect data or data with interference. Second, each event type is restored utilizing an original method that combines real observations, local forecasted values and historical data. Third, an exponential smoothing procedure is applied globally to eliminate noise interference and other random errors so as to provide good quality source data for future work.

Nostalgic representation of reality in television fiction: an empirical study based on the analysis of the Spanish television series Cuéntame cómo pasó

The Spanish transition from dictatorship to democracy is often described as an example of negotiation or agreement between the elites (Sánchez Cuenca and Aguilar, 2009: 433). Journalistic and political elites, aware of their important historical role, agreed a consensus on certain issues (democracy, constitution, amnesty) or characters (King Juan Carlos I), in order to ensure the stability of the democratic process (Zugasti, 2007, 2008). Television, which articulates the discourse of the masses, has been one of the basic means used to illustrate the development. Among the highlights of recent major audiovisual content, Cuéntame cómo pasó (2001-present) -a TV-series designed to explain changes with a nostalgic tone in Spanish society since 1968 until today- stands out. By choosing a random sample of episodes for this research we propose to verify the validity of the representation of the political process which contextualizes the series. By analyzing many elements, such as the opinions of the main characters, their personal, political and geographical situations, we try to show the construction of a focal point that sanctifies the official version. We also stress the pacifying and nostalgic tone, which constructs stereotypes and taboos about the process and which characterizes this series as a symbolic culmination of the democratization undertaken by the elites.