Hazard assessment of storm events for the battery, New York

The environmental and socio-economic importance of coastal areas is widely recognized, but at present these areas face severe weaknesses and high-risk situations. The increased demand and growing human occupation of coastal zones have greatly contributed to exacerbating such weaknesses. Today, throughout the world, in all countries with coastal regions, episodes of waves overtopping and coastal flooding are frequent. These episodes are usually responsible for property losses and often put human lives at risk. The floods are caused by coastal storms primarily due to the action of very strong winds. The propagation of these storms towards the coast induces high water levels. It is expected that climate change phenomena will contribute to the intensification of coastal storms. In this context, an estimation of coastal flooding hazards is of paramount importance for the planning and management of coastal zones. Consequently, carrying out a series of storm scenarios and analyzing their impacts through numerical modeling is of prime interest to coastal decision-makers. Firstly, throughout this work, historical storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the northeastern region of United States coast, in terms of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with high potential of occurrence are generated using a specific tool of DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate ensemble simulations to assess storms' effects on coastal water levels. For the United States’ northeastern coast, a highly refined regional domain is considered surrounding the area of The Battery, New York, situated in New York Harbor. Based on statistical data of numerical modeling results, a review of the impact of coastal storms to different locations within the study area is performed.

Critical events in mechanically ventilated patients

Mechanical Ventilation is an artificial way to help a Patient to breathe. This procedure is used to support patients with respiratory diseases however in many cases it can provoke lung damages, Acute Respiratory Diseases or organ failure. With the goal to early detect possible patient breath problems a set of limit values was defined to some variables monitored by the ventilator (Average Ventilation Pressure, Compliance Dynamic, Flow, Peak, Plateau and Support Pressure, Positive end-expiratory pressure, Respiratory Rate) in order to create critical events. A critical event is verified when a patient has a value higher or lower than the normal range defined for a certain period of time. The values were defined after elaborate a literature review and meeting with physicians specialized in the area. This work uses data streaming and intelligent agents to process the values collected in real-time and classify them as critical or not. Real data provided by an Intensive Care Unit were used to design and test the solution. In this study it was possible to understand the importance of introduce critical events for Mechanically Ventilated Patients. In some cases a value is considered critical (can trigger an alarm) however it is a single event (instantaneous) and it has not a clinical significance for the patient. The introduction of critical events which crosses a range of values and a pre-defined duration contributes to improve the decision-making process by decreasing the number of false positives and having a better comprehension of the patient condition.

Real-Time decision support using data mining to predict blood pressure critical events in intensive medicine patients

Patient blood pressure is an important vital signal to the physicians take a decision and to better understand the patient condition. In Intensive Care Units is possible monitoring the blood pressure due the fact of the patient being in continuous monitoring through bedside monitors and the use of sensors. The intensivist only have access to vital signs values when they look to the monitor or consult the values hourly collected. Most important is the sequence of the values collected, i.e., a set of highest or lowest values can signify a critical event and bring future complications to a patient as is Hypotension or Hypertension. This complications can leverage a set of dangerous diseases and side-effects. The main goal of this work is to predict the probability of a patient has a blood pressure critical event in the next hours by combining a set of patient data collected in real-time and using Data Mining classification techniques. As output the models indicate the probability (%) of a patient has a Blood Pressure Critical Event in the next hour. The achieved results showed to be very promising, presenting sensitivity around of 95%.

Primary coronary angioplasty in 9,434 patients during acute myocardial infarction: predictors of major in- hospital adverse events from 1996 to 2000 in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To verify the results after the performance of primary coronary angioplasty in Brazil in the last 4 years. METHODS: During the first 24 hours of acute myocardial infarction onset, 9,434 (12.2%) patients underwent primary PTCA. We analyzed the success and occurrence of major in-hospital events, comparing them over the 4-year period. RESULTS: Primary PTCA use increased compared with that of all percutaneous interventions (1996=10.6% vs. 2000=13.1%; p<0.001). Coronary stent implantation increased (1996=20% vs. 2000=71.9%; p<0.001). Success was greater (1998=89.5% vs. 1999=92.5%; p<0.001). Reinfarction decreased (1998=3.9% vs. 99=2.4% vs. 2000=1.5%; p<0.001) as did emergency bypass surgery (1996=0.5% vs. 2000=0.2%; p=0.01). In-hospital deaths remained unchanged (1996=5.7% vs. 2000=5.1%, p=0.53). Balloon PTCA was one of the independent predictors of a higher rate of unsuccessful procedures (odds ratio 12.01 [CI=95%] 1.58-22.94), and stent implantation of lower mortality rates (odds ratio 4.62 [CI=95%] 3.19-6.08). CONCLUSION: The success rate has become progressively higher with a significant reduction in reinfarction and urgent bypass surgery, but in-hospital death remains nearly unchanged. Coronary stenting was a predictor of a lower death rate, and balloon PTCA was associated with greater procedural failure.

Errores en sistemas de procesamiento de datos debido a eventos transitorios en interfaces analógicas: aportes a la mitigación de los mismos. Errors in data processing systems due to single transient events affecting analog interfaces: contributions to their mitigation.

Los eventos transitorios únicos analógicos (ASET, Analog Single Event Transient) se producen debido a la interacción de un ión pesado o un protón de alta energía con un dispositivo sensible de un circuito analógico. La interacción del ión con un transistor bipolar o de efecto de campo MOS induce pares electrón-hueco que provocan picos que pueden propagarse a la salida del componente analógico provocando transitorios que pueden inducir fallas en el nivel sistema. Los problemas más graves debido a este tipo de fenómeno se dan en el medioambiente espacial, muy rico en iones pesados. Casos típicos los constituyen las computadoras de a bordo de satélites y otros artefactos espaciales. Sin embargo, y debido a la continua contracción de dimensiones de los transistores (que trae aparejado un aumento de sensibilidad), este fenómeno ha comenzado a observarse a nivel del mar, provocado fundamentalmente por el impacto de neutrones atmosféricos. Estos efectos pueden provocar severos problemas a los sistemas informáticos con interfaces analógicas desde las que obtienen datos para el procesamiento y se han convertido en uno de los problemas más graves a los que tienen que hacer frente los diseñadores de sistemas de alta escala de integración. Casos típicos son los Sistemas en Chip que incluyen módulos de procesamiento de altas prestaciones como las interfaces analógicas.El proyecto persigue como objetivo general estudiar la susceptibilidad de sistemas informáticos a ASETs en sus secciones analógicas, proponiendo estrategias para la mitigación de los errores.Como objetivos específicos se pretende: -Proponer nuevos modelos de ASETs basados en simulaciones en el nivel dispositivo y resueltas por el método de elementos finitos.-Utilizar los modelos para identificar las secciones más propensas a producir errores y consecuentemente para ser candidatos a la aplicación de técnicas de endurecimiento a radiaciones.-Utilizar estos modelos para estudiar la naturaleza de los errores producidos en sistemas de procesamiento de datos.-Proponer soluciones novedosas para la mitigación de estos efectos en los mismos circuitos analógicos evitando su propagación a las secciones digitales.-Proponer soluciones para la mitigación de los efectos en el nivel sistema.Para llevar a cabo el proyecto se plantea un procedimiento ascendente para las investigaciones a realizar, comenzando por descripciones en el nivel físico para posteriormente aumentar el nivel de abstracción en el que se encuentra modelado el circuito. Se propone el modelado físico de los dispositivos MOS y su resolución mediante el Método de Elementos Finitos. La inyección de cargas en las zonas sensibles de los modelos permitirá determinar los perfiles de los pulsos de corriente que deben inyectarse en el nivel circuito para emular estos efectos. Estos procedimientos se realizarán para los distintos bloques constructivos de las interfaces analógicas, proponiendo estrategias de mitigación de errores en diferentes niveles.Los resultados esperados del presente proyecto incluyen hardware para detección de errores y tolerancia a este tipo de eventos que permitan aumentar la confiabilidad de sistemas de tratamiento de la información, así como también nuevos datos referentes a efectos de la radiación en semiconductores, nuevos modelos de fallas transitorias que permitan una simulación de estos eventos en el nivel circuito y la determinación de zonas sensibles de interfaces analógicas típicas que deben ser endurecidas para radiación.

Baroreflex Sensitivity and its Association with Arrhythmic Events in Chagas Disease

Background:Sudden death is the leading cause of death in Chagas disease (CD), even in patients with preserved ejection fraction (EF), suggesting that destabilizing factors of the arrhythmogenic substrate (autonomic modulation) contribute to its occurrence.Objective:To determine baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) in patients with undetermined CD (GI), arrhythmogenic CD with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) (GII) and CD with spontaneous sustained ventricular tachycardia (STV) (GIII), to evaluate its association with the occurrence and complexity of arrhythmias.Method:Forty-two patients with CD underwent ECG and continuous and noninvasive BP monitoring (TASK force monitor). The following were determined: BRS (phenylephrine method); heart rate variability (HRV) on 24-h Holter; and EF (echocardiogram).Results:GIII had lower BRS (6.09 ms/mm Hg) as compared to GII (11.84) and GI (15.23). The difference was significant between GI and GIII (p = 0.01). Correlating BRS with the density of ventricular extrasystoles (VE), low VE density (<10/h) was associated with preserved BRS. Only 59% of the patients with high VE density (> 10/h) had preserved BRS (p = 0.003). Patients with depressed BRS had higher VE density (p = 0.01), regardless of the EF. The BRS was the only variable related to the occurrence of SVT (p = 0.028).Conclusion:The BRS is preserved in undetermined CD. The BRS impairment increases as disease progresses, being more severe in patients with more complex ventricular arrhythmias. The degree of autonomic dysfunction did not correlate with EF, but with the density and complexity of ventricular arrhythmias.

High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Events after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: The association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction who undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention remains controversial. Objective: To investigate the potential association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and an increased risk of MACE such as death, heart failure, reinfarction, and new revascularization in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 300 individuals aged >18 years who were diagnosed with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention at a tertiary health center. An instrument evaluating clinical variables and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores was used. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein was determined by nephelometry. The patients were followed-up during hospitalization and up to 30 days after infarction for the occurrence of MACE. Student's t, Mann-Whitney, chi-square, and logistic regression tests were used for statistical analyses. P values of ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: The mean age was 59.76 years, and 69.3% of patients were male. No statistically significant association was observed between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent MACE (p = 0.11). However, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was independently associated with 30-day mortality when adjusted for TIMI [odds ratio (OR), 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-1.51; p = 0.005] and GRACE (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06-1.49; p = 0.007) risk scores. Conclusion: Although high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was not predictive of combined major cardiovascular events within 30 days after ST-elevation myocardial infarction in patients who underwent primary angioplasty and stent implantation, it was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality.

Left Atrial Volume Index and Prediction of Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome: Solar Registry

Background: According to some international studies, patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and increased left atrial volume index (LAVI) have worse long-term prognosis. However, national Brazilian studies confirming this prediction are still lacking. Objective: To evaluate LAVI as a predictor of major cardiovascular events (MCE) in patients with ACS during a 365-day follow-up. Methods: Prospective cohort of 171 patients diagnosed with ACS whose LAVI was calculated within 48 hours after hospital admission. According to LAVI, two groups were categorized: normal LAVI (≤ 32 mL/m2) and increased LAVI (> 32 mL/m2). Both groups were compared regarding clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, in- and out-of-hospital outcomes, and occurrence of ECM in up to 365 days. Results: Increased LAVI was observed in 78 patients (45%), and was associated with older age, higher body mass index, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction and previous angioplasty, and lower creatinine clearance and ejection fraction. During hospitalization, acute pulmonary edema was more frequent in patients with increased LAVI (14.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.024). After discharge, the occurrence of combined outcome for MCE was higher (p = 0.001) in the group with increased LAVI (26%) as compared to the normal LAVI group (7%) [RR (95% CI) = 3.46 (1.54-7.73) vs. 0.80 (0.69-0.92)]. After Cox regression, increased LAVI increased the probability of MCE (HR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.28-7.40, p = 0.012). Conclusion: Increased LAVI is an important predictor of MCE in a one-year follow-up.

Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.

Cost-Effectiveness of High, Moderate and Low-Dose Statins in the Prevention of Vascular Events in the Brazilian Public Health System

Background:Statins have proven efficacy in the reduction of cardiovascular events, but the financial impact of its widespread use can be substantial.Objective:To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of three statin dosing schemes in the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) perspective.Methods:We developed a Markov model to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of low, intermediate and high intensity dose regimens in secondary and four primary scenarios (5%, 10%, 15% and 20% ten-year risk) of prevention of cardiovascular events. Regimens with expected low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction below 30% (e.g. simvastatin 10mg) were considered as low dose; between 30-40%, (atorvastatin 10mg, simvastatin 40mg), intermediate dose; and above 40% (atorvastatin 20-80mg, rosuvastatin 20mg), high-dose statins. Effectiveness data were obtained from a systematic review with 136,000 patients. National data were used to estimate utilities and costs (expressed as International Dollars - Int$). A willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold equal to the Brazilian gross domestic product per capita (circa Int$11,770) was applied.Results:Low dose was dominated by extension in the primary prevention scenarios. In the five scenarios, the ICER of intermediate dose was below Int$10,000 per QALY. The ICER of the high versus intermediate dose comparison was above Int$27,000 per QALY in all scenarios. In the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves, intermediate dose had a probability above 50% of being cost-effective with ICERs between Int$ 9,000-20,000 per QALY in all scenarios.Conclusions:Considering a reasonable WTP threshold, intermediate dose statin therapy is economically attractive, and should be a priority intervention in prevention of cardiovascular events in Brazil.

Myocardial Scintigraphy in the Evaluation of Cardiac Events in Patients without Typical Symptoms

AbstractBackground:Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death in the world and in Brazil. Myocardial scintigraphy is an important noninvasive method for detecting ischemia in symptomatic patients, but its use in asymptomatic ones or those with atypical symptoms is yet to be defined.Objective:To verify the presence of major cardiac events in asymptomatic patients or those with atypical symptoms (atypical chest pain or dyspnea) that underwent myocardial scintigraphy (MS), over a period of 8 years. Secondary objectives were to identify cardiac risk factors associated with myocardial scintigraphy abnormalities and possible predictors for major cardiac events in this group.Methods:This was a retrospective, observational study using the medical records of 892 patients that underwent myocardial scintigraphy between 2005 and 2011 and who were followed until 2013 for assessment of major cardiac events and risk factors associated with myocardial scintigraphy abnormalities. Statistical analysis was performed by Fisher’s exact test, logistic regression and Kaplan-Meyer survival curves, with statistical significance being set at p ≤ 0.05.Results:Of the total sample, 52.1% were men, 86.9% were hypertensive, 72.4% had hyperlipidemia, 33.6% were diabetic, and 12.2% were smokers; 44.5% had known coronary artery disease; and 70% had high Framingham score, 21.8% had moderate and 8% had low risk. Of the myocardial scintigraphies, 58.6% were normal, 26.1% suggestive of fibrosis and 15.3% suggestive of ischemia. At evolution, 13 patients (1.5%) had non-fatal myocardial infarction and six individuals (0.7%) died. The group with normal myocardial scintigraphy showed longer period of time free of major cardiac events, non-fatal myocardial infarction (p = 0.036) and death. Fibrosis in the myocardial scintigraphy determined a 2.4-fold increased risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction and five-fold higher risk of death (odds ratio: 2.4 and 5.7, respectively; p = 0.043).Conclusion:The occurrence of major cardiac events in 8 years was small. Patients with fibrosis at MS had more major events, whereas patients with normal MS result had fewer major cardiac events, with higher survival.

Predictors of Arrhythmic Events Detected by Implantable Loop Recorders in Renal Transplant Candidates

AbstractBackground:The recording of arrhythmic events (AE) in renal transplant candidates (RTCs) undergoing dialysis is limited by conventional electrocardiography. However, continuous cardiac rhythm monitoring seems to be more appropriate due to automatic detection of arrhythmia, but this method has not been used.Objective:We aimed to investigate the incidence and predictors of AE in RTCs using an implantable loop recorder (ILR).Methods:A prospective observational study conducted from June 2009 to January 2011 included 100 consecutive ambulatory RTCs who underwent ILR and were followed-up for at least 1 year. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to define predictors of AE.Results:During a mean follow-up of 424 ± 127 days, AE could be detected in 98% of patients, and 92% had more than one type of arrhythmia, with most considered potentially not serious. Sustained atrial tachycardia and atrial fibrillation occurred in 7% and 13% of patients, respectively, and bradyarrhythmia and non-sustained or sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) occurred in 25% and 57%, respectively. There were 18 deaths, of which 7 were sudden cardiac events: 3 bradyarrhythmias, 1 ventricular fibrillation, 1 myocardial infarction, and 2 undetermined. The presence of a long QTc (odds ratio [OR] = 7.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01–26.35; p = 0.002), and the duration of the PR interval (OR = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02–1.08; p < 0.001) were independently associated with bradyarrhythmias. Left ventricular dilatation (LVD) was independently associated with non-sustained VT (OR = 2.83; 95% CI, 1.01–7.96; p = 0.041).Conclusions:In medium-term follow-up of RTCs, ILR helped detect a high incidence of AE, most of which did not have clinical relevance. The PR interval and presence of long QTc were predictive of bradyarrhythmias, whereas LVD was predictive of non-sustained VT.