Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Final Report: University of Technology, Sydney Student Feedback Survey Review

This evaluation was commissioned by Martin Hanlon, Director of the Planning and Quality Unit of the University of Technology, Sydney (UTS) to investigate the Student Feedback Survey (SFS) system, engagement in stakeholder feedback and provide recommendations against the Terms of Reference.

What is the available evidence concerning relative performance of different designs of mixed-species plantings for smallholder and community forestry in the tropics? A systematic map protocol

Background There has been growing interest in mixed species plantation systems because of their potential to provide a range of socio-economic and bio-physical benefits which can be matched to the diverse needs of smallholders and communities. Potential benefits include the production of a range of forest products for home and commercial use; improved soil fertility especially when nitrogen fixing species are included; improved survival rates and greater productivity of species; a reduction in the amount of damage from pests or disease; and improved biodiversity and wildlife habitats. Despite these documented services and growing interest in mixed species plantation systems, the actual planting areas in the tropics are low, and monocultures are still preferred for industrial plantings and many reforestation programs because of perceived higher economic returns and readily available information about the species and their silviculture. In contrast, there are few guidelines for the design and management of mixed-species systems, including the social and ecological factors of successful mixed species plantings. Methods This protocol explains the methodology used to investigate the following question: What is the available evidence for the relative performance of different designs of mixed-species plantings for smallholder and community forestry in the tropics? This study will systematically search, identify and describe studies related to mixed species plantings across tropical and temperate zones to identify the social and ecological factors that affect polyculture systems. The objectives of this study are first to identify the evidence of biophysical or socio-economic factors that have been considered when designing mixed species systems for community and smallholder forestry in the tropics; and second, to identify gaps in research of mixed species plantations. Results of the study will help create guidelines that can assist practitioners, scientists and farmers to better design mixed species plantation systems for smallholders in the tropics.

Pt/WO3 nanoplatelet/SiC Schottky diode based hydrogen gas sensor

This paper presents the fabrication and study of a Schottky diode based on Pt/WO3 nanoplatelet/SiC for H2 gas sensing applications. The nanostructured WO3 films were synthesized from tungsten (sputtered on SiC) via an acidetching method using a 1.5 M HNO3 solution. Scanning electron microscopy of the developed films revealed platelet crystals with thicknesses in the order of 20-60 nm and lengths between 100-700 nm. The current-voltage characteristic and dynamic response of the diodes were measured in the presence of air and 1% H2 gas balanced in air from 25 to 300°C. Upon exposure to 1% H2, voltage shifts of 0.64, 0.93 and 1.14 V were recorded at temperatures of 120, 200 and 300°C, respectively at a constant forward bias current of 500 μA.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Quantitative Trait Loci for CD4:CD8 Lymphocyte Ratio Are Associated with Risk of Type 1 Diabetes and HIV-1 Immune Control

Abnormal expansion or depletion of particular lymphocyte subsets is associated with clinical manifestations such as HIV progression to AIDS and autoimmune disease. We sought to identify genetic predictors of lymphocyte levels and reasoned that these may play a role in immune-related diseases. We tested 2.3 million variants for association with five lymphocyte subsets, measured in 2538 individuals from the general population, including CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells, CD56+ natural killer (NK) cells, and the derived measure CD4:CD8 ratio. We identified two regions of strong association. The first was located in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with multiple SNPs strongly associated with CD4:CD8 ratio (rs2524054, p = 2.1 × 10−28). The second region was centered within a cluster of genes from the Schlafen family and was associated with NK cell levels (rs1838149, p = 6.1 × 10−14). The MHC association with CD4:CD8 replicated convincingly (p = 1.4 × 10−9) in an independent panel of 988 individuals. Conditional analyses indicate that there are two major independent quantitative trait loci (QTL) in the MHC region that regulate CD4:CD8 ratio: one is located in the class I cluster and influences CD8 levels, whereas the second is located in the class II cluster and regulates CD4 levels. Jointly, both QTL explained 8% of the variance in CD4:CD8 ratio. The class I variants are also strongly associated with durable host control of HIV, and class II variants are associated with type-1 diabetes, suggesting that genetic variation at the MHC may predispose one to immune-related diseases partly through disregulation of T cell homeostasis.

Recruiting/hiring of older workers

This chapter reviews five key components of the recruitment process with regard to an aging workforce. First, targeted recruitment entails that organizations understand the needs, preferences, and strengths of older workers. Second, the recruitment message should communicate job and organizational characteristics that are attractive to older jobseekers. Third, the recruitment source should be consistent with the mediayse and job-search behaviors of older jobseekers. Fourth, the characteristics and behaviors of recruiters play an essential role in the recruitment of older applicants. Finally, organizations need to convey an attractive image of themselves as employers for older workers. Throughout the chapter, best practices are contrasted with available research evidence, and directions for future research are outlined.

The global burden of injury: Incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

Multivariate Techniques for Identifying Diffractive Interactions at the LHC

Close to one half of the LHC events are expected to be due to elastic or inelastic diffractive scattering. Still, predictions based on extrapolations of experimental data at lower energies differ by large factors in estimating the relative rate of diffractive event categories at the LHC energies. By identifying diffractive events, detailed studies on proton structure can be carried out. The combined forward physics objects: rapidity gaps, forward multiplicity and transverse energy flows can be used to efficiently classify proton-proton collisions. Data samples recorded by the forward detectors, with a simple extension, will allow first estimates of the single diffractive (SD), double diffractive (DD), central diffractive (CD), and non-diffractive (ND) cross sections. The approach, which uses the measurement of inelastic activity in forward and central detector systems, is complementary to the detection and measurement of leading beam-like protons. In this investigation, three different multivariate analysis approaches are assessed in classifying forward physics processes at the LHC. It is shown that with gene expression programming, neural networks and support vector machines, diffraction can be efficiently identified within a large sample of simulated proton-proton scattering events. The event characteristics are visualized by using the self-organizing map algorithm.

Central Diffraction at ALICE

The ALICE experiment is shown to be well suited for studies of exclusive final states from central diffractive reactions. The gluon-rich environment ofthe central system allows detailed QCD studies and searches for exotic mesonstates, such as glueballs, hybrids and new charmonium-like states. It wouldalso provide a good testing ground for detailed studies of heavy quarkonia. Dueto its central barrel performance, ALICE can accurately measure the low-masscentral systems with good purity. The efficiency of the Forward MultiplicityDetector (FMD) and the Forward Shower Counter (FSC) system for detectingrapidity gaps is shown to be adequate for the proposed studies. With thisdetector arrangement, valuable new data can be obtained by tagging centraldiffractive processes.

Synthesis, characterization and phosphotriesterase mimetic activity of some Zn(II) and Cu(II) complexes

We report here the synthesis and characterization of a few phenolate-based ligands bearing tert- amino substituent and their Zn(II) and Cu(II) metal complexes. Three mono/binuclear Zn(II) and Cu(II) complexes Zn(L1)(H2O)].CH3OH.H2O (1) (H (2) L1 = 6,6(')-(((2-dimethylamino)ethylazanediyl)bis(methylene))bis(2, 4-dimethylphenol), Zn-2(L2)(2)] (2) (H (2) L2 = 2,2(')-(((2-dimethylamino)ethyl)azanediyl)bis(methylene)bis(4- methylphenol) and Cu-2(L3)(2).CH2 Cl-2] (3) (H (2) L3 = (6,6(')-(((2-(diethylamino)ethyl)azanediyl)bis(methylene)) bis(methylene))bis(2,4-dimethylphenol) were synthesized by using three symmetrical tetradendate ligands containing N2O2 donor sites. These complexes are characterized by a variety of techniques including; elemental analysis, mass spectrometry, H-1, C-13 NMR spectroscopic and single crystal X-ray analysis. The new complexes have been tested for the phosphotriesterase (PTE) activity with the help of P-31 NMR spectroscopy. The P-31 NMR studies show that mononuclear complex Zn(L1)(H2O)].CH3OH.H2O (1) can hydrolyse the phosphotriester i.e., p-nitrophenyl diphenylphosphate (PNPDPP), more efficiently than the binuclear complexes Zn-2(L2)(2)] (2) and Cu-2(L3)(2).CH2Cl2] (3). The mononuclear Zn(II) complex (1) having one coordinated water molecule exhibits significant PTE activity which may be due to the generation of a Zn(II)-bound hydroxide ion during the hydrolysis reactions in CHES buffer at pH 9.0.

Evaluación del uso y manejo de las técnicas impulsadas por PRODES (Proyecto de Desarrollo Rural) en crianza de gallinas de patio en el municipio de Nueva Guinea, Nicaragua

El presente trabajo se realizó en el municipio de Nueva Guinea, departamento de la Región Autónoma Atlántico Sur (RAAS). Los objetivos fueron: Evaluar el nivel de adopción de las técnicas impulsadas por el Proyecto de Desarrollo Rural (PRODES), tales como; uso y manejo de las técnicas de alimentación; sanidad animal; e infraestructura, en la crianza de gallinas de patio. Determinar el aporte de la familia. Identificar los mecanismos de difusión de tecnología más utilizados en dicho proyecto. El trabajo contempló las siguientes fases: coordinación con PRODES, Definición del grupo de evaluación y tamaño de la muestra (27% de los productores, equivalente a 200 encuestas). Muestreo aleatorio con los productores beneficiarios del proyecto (fincas de referencia y miembros de grupo). La encuesta contenía los siguientes componentes: información general del productor, Inventario de aves, Alimentación, Salud, Infraestructura y, Difusión de tecnologías. Las variables se clasificaron en cualitativas, referidas al uso o no uso de las técnicas. Dichas variables fueron: uso de lombrices de tierra en la alimentación, uso de concentrados caseros, uso de minerales y, uso de pastoreo en las aves. Variables medidas mediante la cuantificación del número de productores que utilizaron las diferentes tecnologías en relación con la muestra, expresadas en porcentajes. El manejo de la tecnología de alimentación, se evaluó a través de: Frecuencias de uso de concentrado casero, y/o de minerales, tipos de ingredientes y de minerales. El componente salud consideró las variables; usos de desparasitantes, vitaminas, vacunas (Newcastle y, Viruela aviar). El manejo de tecnología en salud se evaluó mediante: Frecuencias de uso de desparasitantes, y/o vitaminas, frecuencia de vacunación (Newcastle y Viruela aviar), tipos de desparasitantes y de vitaminas. El componente de infraestructura referido al gallinero consideró: uso de gallinero, de cercas en gallinero y, de caseta. El manejo de tecnologías incluyó las variables: tipos de materiales usados en las cercas y de casetas. El componente difusión de tecnología, se evaluó mediante el número de aves prestadas, regaladas o vendidas, entre los productores, el componente participación de género cuantificó los miembro de la familia que participan en la crianza, expresadas en porcentajes. Las variables cuantitativas contemplaron el inventario del hato. El nivel de uso y manejo de las diferentes tecnologías, se analizó a través de frecuencias que permitieron medir el número de veces de ocurrencia de un suceso. Los resultados muestran que hubo un alto nivel de uso de concentrados caseros, desparasitantes, vacunas contra Newcastle y uso de infraestructura, no así, en cuanto al uso del pastoreo, minerales, vitaminas y vacuna (Viruela aviar). Con relación al manejo, se observaron deficiencias en la frecuencia de uso recomendadas por el proyecto. Las encuestas revelaron de forma significativa, la participación de la mujer. De los mecanismos de difusión de estas tecnologías el más común fue el regalo de huevo.

Comportamiento reproductivo, dinamica de produccion y calidad de la leche de genotipos lecheros bajo condiciones intensivas, en el tropico seco de Rivas, Nicaragua

Con el propósito de evaluar el comportamiento reproductivo, la dinámica de producción y calidad de la leche de genotipos lecheros en la Finca El Corpus del Meneo, manejado intensivamente, se utilizó información del periodo 1997 - 2004. Se analizaron 181 datos de edad de incorporación (EDADINC), 157 datos de edad a primer parto (EPP), 543 datos de número de servicios por concepción (NSC) y 341 datos de intervalo entre partos (IEP), 233 datos de dos pesajes de leche (diciembre 2004 y enero 2005) y sus respectivos análisis de calidad en porcentajes de grasa (%FAT), proteína (%PROT), lactosa (%LACT) y materia seca (%DRYM). Los modelos lineales aditivos incluyeron efectos de grupo racial (GRUPO), año de nacimiento (ANACV), año de incorporación (AINCV), época de incorporación (El), año de parto (APART), número de parto (NUMPA), época de parto (EP), periodo de lactancia (PERL) y sexo de la cría (SEXC) e interacciones importantes. Para EDINCV, se encontró diferencias relevantes entre GRUPOS (P<0.068), ANACV (P<0.0001), AINCV (P<0.0001) y EN (P<0.0001). Para EPP, diferencias importantes entre AINCV (P<0.0001), APART (P<0.0028) y la interacción APARTxEP (P<0.0361). Para NSC, diferencias estadísticas entre APART (P<0.0138) y NUMPA (P<0.0074). Para IEP, las diferencias importantes entre APART (P<0.0076), NUMPA (P<0.0004) y la interacción GRUPOxSEXC (P<0.0882). Se obtuvieron medias de mínimos cuadrados para EDADINC, EPP, NSC IEP de 25.75±0.72 meses, 35.71±0.88 meses, 1.34±0.11 unidades y !2.82±0.35 meses, respectivamente. Se encontró diferencias importantes entre GRUPOS (1'<0.0001 a P<0.026), NUMPA (P<0.0003 a P<0.0024), PERL (P<0.0000) y la interacción NUMPA*PERL (P<0.0000 a 0.0082), en las variables de producción y calidad, no así entre NUMPA para %DRYM. Se estimaron valores de 8.79±0.29 Kg., 4.14±0.09, 3.48±0.04, 4.31±0.02 y 12.56±0.11 para PLD, %FAT, %PROT, %LACT y %DRYM, respectivamente. GRUPOS no resulto significativo, pero se observo una tendencia marcada del GRUPO 5 (Pardo suizo) hacia una menor EDADINC, el GRUPO l (Holstein y cruces) mostró menores EPP, y los menores valores de NSC (mayor eficiencia técnica) e IEP para el GRUPO 3 (Jersey y cruces). El GRUPO con Holstein mostró mayores producciones de leche pero con menor calidad, mientras que los GRUPOS 2 y 4 (Jersey y cruces, Pardo suizo y cruces) mostraron menores producciones pero con mayor calidad general. La producción de leche por vaca promedio semanal (PLVD) a través de los años se comportó de acuerdo con algunos eventos climatológicos que determinan la disponibilidad y calidad del alimento. Se determinaron tres picos de producción (9.5, 10.0 y 9.7 kg.) y tres puntos críticos similares (9.0- 9.1 kg.). Los genotipos lecheros estudiados muestran que bajo condiciones de trópico seco y manejo intensivo es posible lograr parámetros de reproducción, producción y calidad de leche aceptable y mayores que los parámetros nacionales.

Evaluación de emergía del medio ambiente y la economía de Nicaragua (1995-1999)

Este estudio muestra el análisis de emergía para Nicaragua para los años 1995-99. Los objetivos del presente trabajo son 1) conocer cuáles son las principales características del sistema económico y ambiental de Nicaragua haciendo uso de índices de emergía para describir la carga ambiental y la sostenibilidad del sistema, b) determinar cuál es la posición internacional de Nicaragua en términos de su sistema ecológico-económico y e) determinar cuál es la contribución del medio ambiente de Nicaragua a la economía del país, utilizando la metodología de análisis de emergía. Emergía (con m), es la cantidad de energía que es requerida para hacer algo, es la memoria de energía la cual fue degradada en su proceso de transformación. La metodología de análisis de emergía es útil en donde el crecimiento económico está generando controversia sobre el desarrollo de la economía y la protección del medio ambiente. En este trabajo se presenta un diagrama general de sistema para Nicaragua 1995-99 y una evaluación de emergía de la Base de recursos para Nicaragua. Los resultados indican que la fuente de emergía de la base de recursos para Nicaragua es la energía potencial química en la lluvia (275.97 E+20 sej/año) y se confirma que los recursos renovables más importantes son el ganadero (91.56 E+20 sej/año) y el agrícola (62.26 E+20 sej/año). La relación de emergía exportada a importada fue de 2.14/1, ubicando a Nicaragua como un país productor de recursos. Los diferentes índices calculados para Nicaragua (Relación Emergía/USD = 15.8 E+12 sej/año; Relación de Carga Ambiental =0.39; Relación de Inversión de Emergía= 0.21; Relación de Rendimiento Neto= 5.36 e Indice de Sostenibilidad = 13.86) demuestran que Nicaragua posee una economía subdesarrollada, con niveles tecnológicos pobres y baja intensidad de desarrollo económico. Los índices también indican una baja posición de Nicaragua en la jerarquía económica de naciones. La evaluación y análisis de emergía puede ser utilizado para determinar en términos cuantitativos como realizar de forma óptima y sostenible un buen manejo de los recursos naturales, la población y la economía de una región o país, en este caso de Nicaragua.