Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS.¦METHODS: Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization.¦RESULTS: During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS.¦CONCLUSIONS: The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

Präoperative Azidose und Entwicklung von Säuglingen nach Operation angeborener Herzfehler Preoperative acidosis and infant development following surgery for congenital heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: Prenatal diagnosis has been shown to decrease pre-operative acidosis and might prevent the occurrence of disturbed developmental outcome. The aim of this study is to evaluate parameters for acidosis and their predictive value on developmental outcome in newborns with congenital heart disease. METHODS: A total of 117 patients requiring surgery for structural heart disease in the first 31 days of life were included. Diagnosis was established either pre- or postnatally. Preoperative values of lactate, pH and base excess levels were compared to the occurrence of disturbed developmental outcome, i.e. an underperformance of more than 10% on the P90 of a standardized Dutch developmental scale. Patients were divided into groups according to blood levels of acidosis parameters, using receiver operating characteristics curves to determine cut-off values for pH, base excess and lactate. RESULTS: No significant difference in developmental outcome was found using values for pH or base excess as a cut-off level. Preoperative lactate values exceeding 6.1 mmol/l resulted in a significant increase in impaired development compared to infants with a pre-operative lactate lower than 6.1 mmol/l: 40.9% vs 15.1% in (p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-operative lactate values might have a prognostic value on developmental outcome in newborns with congenital heart disease. The limited prognostic value of pH can be explained by the fact that pH can be easily corrected, while lactate better reflects the total oxygen debt experienced by these patients.

Genetic Loci Associated with C-reactive Protein Levels and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease.

CONTEXT: Plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) are independently associated with risk of coronary heart disease, but whether CRP is causally associated with coronary heart disease or merely a marker of underlying atherosclerosis is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To investigate association of genetic loci with CRP levels and risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We first carried out a genome-wide association (n = 17,967) and replication study (n = 13,615) to identify genetic loci associated with plasma CRP concentrations. Data collection took place between 1989 and 2008 and genotyping between 2003 and 2008. We carried out a mendelian randomization study of the most closely associated single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the CRP locus and published data on other CRP variants involving a total of 28,112 cases and 100,823 controls, to investigate the association of CRP variants with coronary heart disease. We compared our finding with that predicted from meta-analysis of observational studies of CRP levels and risk of coronary heart disease. For the other loci associated with CRP levels, we selected the most closely associated SNP for testing against coronary heart disease among 14,365 cases and 32,069 controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Polymorphisms in 5 genetic loci were strongly associated with CRP levels (% difference per minor allele): SNP rs6700896 in LEPR (-14.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -17.6% to -12.0%; P = 6.2 x 10(-22)), rs4537545 in IL6R (-11.5%; 95% CI, -14.4% to -8.5%; P = 1.3 x 10(-12)), rs7553007 in the CRP locus (-20.7%; 95% CI, -23.4% to -17.9%; P = 1.3 x 10(-38)), rs1183910 in HNF1A (-13.8%; 95% CI, -16.6% to -10.9%; P = 1.9 x 10(-18)), and rs4420638 in APOE-CI-CII (-21.8%; 95% CI, -25.3% to -18.1%; P = 8.1 x 10(-26)). Association of SNP rs7553007 in the CRP locus with coronary heart disease gave an odds ratio (OR) of 0.98 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.01) per 20% lower CRP level. Our mendelian randomization study of variants in the CRP locus showed no association with coronary heart disease: OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.02; per 20% lower CRP level, compared with OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.94 to 0.95; predicted from meta-analysis of the observational studies of CRP levels and coronary heart disease (z score, -3.45; P < .001). SNPs rs6700896 in LEPR (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.09; per minor allele), rs4537545 in IL6R (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91 to 0.97), and rs4420638 in the APOE-CI-CII cluster (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.21) were all associated with risk of coronary heart disease. CONCLUSION: The lack of concordance between the effect on coronary heart disease risk of CRP genotypes and CRP levels argues against a causal association of CRP with coronary heart disease.

Regional cortical volumes and congenital heart disease: a MRI study in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.

Children with congenital heart disease (CHD) who survive surgery often present impaired neurodevelopment and qualitative brain anomalies. However, the impact of CHD on total or regional brain volumes only received little attention. We address this question in a sample of patients with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS), a neurogenetic condition frequently associated with CHD. Sixty-one children, adolescents, and young adults with confirmed 22q11.2 deletion were included, as well as 80 healthy participants matched for age and gender. Subsequent subdivision of the patients group according to CHD yielded a subgroup of 27 patients with normal cardiac status and a subgroup of 26 patients who underwent cardiac surgery during their first years of life (eight patients with unclear status were excluded). Regional cortical volumes were extracted using an automated method and the association between regional cortical volumes, and CHD was examined within a three-condition fixed factor. Robust protection against type I error used Bonferroni correction. Smaller total cerebral volumes were observed in patients with CHD compared to both patients without CHD and controls. The pattern of bilateral regional reductions associated with CHD encompassed the superior parietal region, the precuneus, the fusiform gyrus, and the anterior cingulate cortex. Within patients, a significant reduction in the left parahippocampal, the right middle temporal, and the left superior frontal gyri was associated with CHD. The present results of global and regional volumetric reductions suggest a role for disturbed hemodynamic in the pathophysiology of brain alterations in patients with neurodevelopmental disease and cardiac malformations.

Markers of atherosclerosis and inflammation for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults.

Although both inflammatory and atherosclerosis markers have been associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, data directly comparing their predictive value are limited. The authors compared the value of 2 atherosclerosis markers (ankle-arm index (AAI) and aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV)) and 3 inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha)) in predicting CHD events. Among 2,191 adults aged 70-79 years at baseline (1997-1998) from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study cohort, the authors examined adjudicated incident myocardial infarction or CHD death ("hard" events) and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization (total CHD events). During 8 years of follow-up between 1997-1998 and June 2007, 351 participants developed total CHD events (197 "hard" events). IL-6 (highest quartile vs. lowest: hazard ratio = 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.33, 2.49; P-trend < 0.001) and AAI (AAI </= 0.9 vs. AAI 1.01-1.30: hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.14, 2.18) predicted CHD events above traditional risk factors and modestly improved global measures of predictive accuracy. CRP, TNF-alpha, and aPWV had weaker associations. IL-6 and AAI accurately reclassified 6.6% and 3.3% of participants, respectively (P's </= 0.05). Results were similar for "hard" CHD, with higher reclassification rates for AAI. IL-6 and AAI are associated with future CHD events beyond traditional risk factors and modestly improve risk prediction in older adults.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain: a clinical prediction score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Progenitor cell therapy for heart disease.

Many cell types are currently being studied as potential sources of cardiomyocytes for cell transplantation therapy to repair and regenerate damaged myocardium. The question remains as to which progenitor cell represents the best candidate. Bone marrow-derived cells and endothelial progenitor cells have been tested in clinical studies. These cells are safe, but their cardiogenic potential is controversial. The functional benefits observed are probably due to enhanced angiogenesis, reduced ventricular remodeling, or to cytokine-mediated effects that promote the survival of endogenous cells. Human embryonic stem cells represent an unlimited source of cardiomyocytes due to their great differentiation potential, but each step of differentiation must be tightly controlled due to the high risk of teratoma formation. These cells, however, confront ethical barriers and there is a risk of graft rejection. These last two problems can be avoided by using induced pluripotent stem cells (iPS), which can be autologously derived, but the high risk of teratoma formation remains. Cardiac progenitor cells have the advantage of being cardiac committed, but important questions remain unanswered, such as what is the best marker to identify and isolate these cells? To date the different markers used to identify adult cardiac progenitor cells also recognize progenitor cells that are outside the heart. Thus, it cannot be determined whether the cardiac progenitor cells identified in the adult heart represent resident cells present since fetal life or extracardiac cells that colonized the heart after cardiac injury. Developmental studies have identified markers of multipotent progenitors, but it is unknown whether these markers are specific for adult progenitors when expressed in the adult myocardium. Cardiac regeneration is dependent on the stability of the cells transplanted into the host myocardium and on the electromechanical coupling with the endogenous cells. Finally, the promotion of endogenous regenerative processes by mobilizing endogenous progenitors represents a complementary approach to cell transplantation therapy.

Validation of a clinical prediction score for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain.

Background: A patient's chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease (CHD). An easy to use clinical prediction rule has been derived from the TOPIC study in Lausanne. Our objective is to validate this clinical score for ruling out CHD in primary care patients with chest pain. Methods: This secondary analysis used data collected from a oneyear follow-up cohort study attending 76 GPs in Germany. Patients attending their GP with chest pain were questioned on their age, gender, duration of chest pain (1-60 min), sternal pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the curve (ROC), sensitivity and specificity of the Lausanne CHD score were calculated for patients with full data. Results: 1190 patients were included. Full data was available for 509 patients (42.8%). Missing data was not related to having CHD (p = 0.397) or having a cardiovascular risk factor (p = 0.275). 76 (14.9%) were diagnosed with a CHD. Prevalence of CHD were respectively of 68/344 (19.8%), 2/62 (3.2%), 6/103 (5.8%) in the high, intermediate and low risk category. ROC was of 72.9 (CI95% 66.8; 78.9). Ruling out patients with low risk has a sensitivity of 92.1% (CI95% 83.0; 96.7) and a specificity of 22.4% (CI95% 18.6%; 26.7%). Conclusion: The Lausanne CHD score shows reasonably good sensitivity and can be used to rule out coronary events in patients with chest pain. Patients at risk of CHD for other rarer reasons should nevertheless also be investigated.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care: external validation of a clinical prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: The Marburg Heart Score (MHS) aims to assist GPs in safely ruling out coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients presenting with chest pain, and to guide management decisions. AIM: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS in an independent sample and to evaluate the generalisability to new patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard in general practice in Hesse, Germany. METHOD: Fifty-six German GPs recruited 844 males and females aged ≥ 35 years, presenting between July 2009 and February 2010 with chest pain. Baseline data included the items of the MHS. Data on the subsequent course of chest pain, investigations, hospitalisations, and medication were collected over 6 months and were reviewed by an independent expert panel. CHD was the reference condition. Measures of diagnostic accuracy included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and predictive values. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80 to 0.88). For a cut-off value of 3, the MHS showed a sensitivity of 89.1% (95% CI = 81.1% to 94.0%), a specificity of 63.5% (95% CI = 60.0% to 66.9%), a positive predictive value of 23.3% (95% CI = 19.2% to 28.0%), and a negative predictive value of 97.9% (95% CI = 96.2% to 98.9%). CONCLUSION: Considering the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS, its generalisability, and ease of application, its use in clinical practice is recommended.