805 resultados para Granger causality.
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Audit report on the City of Granger, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2011
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Examination report on the City of Granger, Iowa for the period July 1, 2012 through June 30, 2013
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Agreed-upon procedures report on the City of Granger, Iowa for the period July 1, 2013 through June 30, 2014
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Agreed-upon procedures report on the City of Granger, Iowa for the period July 1, 2014 through June 30, 2015
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Making correct causal claims is important for research and practice. This article explains what causality is, and how it can be established via experimental design. Because experiments are infeasible in many applied settings, researchers often use "observational" methods to estimate causal models. In these situations, it is likely that model estimates are compromised by endogeneity. The article discusses the conditions that engender endogeneity and methods that can eliminate it.
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Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union -EMU-, with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries -Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain-, covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of contagion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt -domestic and foreign- in each country.
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ABSTRACT When Hume, in the Treatise on Human Nature, began his examination of the relation of cause and effect, in particular, of the idea of necessary connection which is its essential constituent, he identified two preliminary questions that should guide his research: (1) For what reason we pronounce it necessary that every thing whose existence has a beginning should also have a cause and (2) Why we conclude that such particular causes must necessarily have such particular effects? (1.3.2, 14-15) Hume observes that our belief in these principles can result neither from an intuitive grasp of their truth nor from a reasoning that could establish them by demonstrative means. In particular, with respect to the first, Hume examines and rejects some arguments with which Locke, Hobbes and Clarke tried to demonstrate it, and suggests, by exclusion, that the belief that we place on it can only come from experience. Somewhat surprisingly, however, Hume does not proceed to show how that derivation of experience could be made, but proposes instead to move directly to an examination of the second principle, saying that, "perhaps, be found in the end, that the same answer will serve for both questions" (1.3.3, 9). Hume's answer to the second question is well known, but the first question is never answered in the rest of the Treatise, and it is even doubtful that it could be, which would explain why Hume has simply chosen to remove any mention of it when he recompiled his theses on causation in the Enquiry concerning Human Understanding. Given this situation, an interesting question that naturally arises is to investigate the relations of logical or conceptual implication between these two principles. Hume seems to have thought that an answer to (2) would also be sufficient to provide an answer to (1). Henry Allison, in his turn, argued (in Custom and Reason in Hume, p. 94-97) that the two questions are logically independent. My proposal here is to try to show that there is indeed a logical dependency between them, but the implication is, rather, from (1) to (2). If accepted, this result may be particularly interesting for an interpretation of the scope of the so-called "Kant's reply to Hume" in the Second Analogy of Experience, which is structured as a proof of the a priori character of (1), but whose implications for (2) remain controversial.
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Research Question: What are the psychosocial factors that affect causality assessment in early phase oncology clinical trials? Methods: Thirty-two qualitative interviews were explicated with the aid of “Naturalistic Decision Making”. Data explication consisted of phenomenological reduction, delineating and clustering meaning units, forming themes, and creating a composite summary. Participants were members of the National Cancer Institute of Canada’s Clinical Trial Group Investigative New Drug committee. Results: The process of assigning causality is extremely subjective and full of uncertainty. Physicians had no formal training, nor a tool to assist them with this process. Physicians were apprehensive about their decisions and felt pressure from their patients, as well as the pharmaceutical companies sponsoring the trial. Conclusions: There are many problem areas when attributing causality, all of which have serious consequences, but clinicians used a variety of methods to cope with these problem areas.
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This study examines the notion of permanent object during the first year of life, taking into account the controversy of two approaches about the nature of change: developmental change and cognitive change. Using a longitudinal/cross-sectional design, tasks adapted of the subscale of permanent object and operative causality of the Uzgiris-Hunt Scale (Uzgiris and Hunt, 1975) (Uzgiris & Hunt, 1975) were presented to 110 infants of 0, 3, 6 and 9 months-old, which reside in three cities of Colombia. The results showed three types of strategies: (a) Not resolution; (b) Exploratory and (c) Resolution, which follow different trajectories in children’s performance. This allows affirming that adaptive conquests of the cognitive development stay together with the variety of strategies. Using strategies reveals adjustments and transformations of action programs that consolidate the notion of permanent object not necessarily with age, but with self-regulatory processes. Empirical evidence contributes to the understanding of the relations between the emergence of novelty in the development and performance variability
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We consider the general response theory recently proposed by Ruelle for describing the impact of small perturbations to the non-equilibrium steady states resulting from Axiom A dynamical systems. We show that the causality of the response functions entails the possibility of writing a set of Kramers-Kronig (K-K) relations for the corresponding susceptibilities at all orders of nonlinearity. Nonetheless, only a special class of directly observable susceptibilities obey K-K relations. Specific results are provided for the case of arbitrary order harmonic response, which allows for a very comprehensive K-K analysis and the establishment of sum rules connecting the asymptotic behavior of the harmonic generation susceptibility to the short-time response of the perturbed system. These results set in a more general theoretical framework previous findings obtained for optical systems and simple mechanical models, and shed light on the very general impact of considering the principle of causality for testing self-consistency: the described dispersion relations constitute unavoidable benchmarks that any experimental and model generated dataset must obey. The theory exposed in the present paper is dual to the time-dependent theory of perturbations to equilibrium states and to non-equilibrium steady states, and has in principle similar range of applicability and limitations. In order to connect the equilibrium and the non equilibrium steady state case, we show how to rewrite the classical response theory by Kubo so that response functions formally identical to those proposed by Ruelle, apart from the measure involved in the phase space integration, are obtained. These results, taking into account the chaotic hypothesis by Gallavotti and Cohen, might be relevant in several fields, including climate research. In particular, whereas the fluctuation-dissipation theorem does not work for non-equilibrium systems, because of the non-equivalence between internal and external fluctuations, K-K relations might be robust tools for the definition of a self-consistent theory of climate change.