No Good Deals - No Bad Models

Faced with the problem of pricing complex contingent claims, an investor seeks to make his valuations robust to model uncertainty. We construct a notion of a model- uncertainty-induced utility function and show that model uncertainty increases the investor's eff ective risk aversion. Using the model-uncertainty-induced utility function, we extend the \No Good Deals" methodology of Cochrane and Sa a-Requejo [2000] to compute lower and upper good deal bounds in the presence of model uncertainty. We illustrate the methodology using some numerical examples.

Coordination in Public Good Provision: How Individual Volunteering is Impacted by the Volunteering of Others

In this analysis, we examine the relationship between an individual's decision to volunteer and the average level of volunteering in the community where the individual resides. Our theoretical model is based on a coordination game , in which volunteering by others is informative regarding the benefit from volunteering. We demonstrate that the interaction between this information and one's private information makes it more likely that he or she will volunteer, given a higher level of contributions by his or her peers. We complement this theoretical work with an empirical analysis using Census 2000 Summary File 3 and Current Population Survey (CPS) 2004-2007 September supplement file data. We control for various individual and community characteristics, and employ robustness checks to verify the results of the baseline analysis. We additionally use an innovative instrumental variables strategy to account for reflection bias and endogeneity caused by selective sorting by individuals into neighborhoods, which allows us to argue for a causal interpretation. The empirical results in the baseline, as well as all robustness analyses, verify the main result of our theoretical model, and we employ a more general structure to further strengthen our results.

Effects of Experience, Knowledge and Signals on Willingness to Pay for a Public Good

This paper compares how increases in experience versus increases in knowledge about a public good affect willingness to pay (WTP) for its provision. This is challenging because while consumers are often certain about their previous experiences with a good, they may be uncertain about the accuracy of their knowledge. We therefore design and conduct a field experiment in which treated subjects receive a precise and objective signal regarding their knowledge about a public good before estimating their WTP for it. Using data for two different public goods, we show qualitative equivalence of the effect of knowledge and experience on valuation for a public good. Surprisingly, though, we find that the causal effect of objective signals about the accuracy of a subject’s knowledge for a public good can dramatically affect their valuation for it: treatment causes an increase of $150-$200 in WTP for well-informed individuals. We find no such effect for less informed subjects. Our results imply that WTP estimates for public goods are not only a function of true information states of the respondents but beliefs about those information states.

What is the Causal Effect of Information and Learning about a Public Good on Willingness to Pay?

In this study we elicit agents’ prior information set regarding a public good, exogenously give information treatments to survey respondents and subsequently elicit willingness to pay for the good and posterior information sets. The design of this field experiment allows us to perform theoretically motivated hypothesis testing between different updating rules: non-informative updating, Bayesian updating, and incomplete updating. We find causal evidence that agents imperfectly update their information sets. We also field causal evidence that the amount of additional information provided to subjects relative to their pre-existing information levels can affect stated WTP in ways consistent overload from too much learning. This result raises important (though familiar) issues for the use of stated preference methods in policy analysis.

Coordination in Public Good Provision: How Individual Volunteering is Impacted by the Volunteering of Others

In this analysis, we examine the relationship between an individual’s decision to volunteer and the average level of volunteering in the community where the individual resides. Our theoretical model is based on a coordination game , in which volunteering by others is informative regarding the benefit from volunteering. We demonstrate that the interaction between this information and one’s private information makes it more likely that he or she will volunteer, given a higher level of contributions by his or her peers. We complement this theoretical work with an empirical analysis using Census 2000 Summary File 3 and Current Population Survey (CPS) 2004-2007 September supplement file data. We control for various individual and community characteristics, and employ robustness checks to verify the results of the baseline analysis. We additionally use an innovative instrumental variables strategy to account for reflection bias and endogeneity caused by selective sorting by individuals into neighbourhoods, which allows us to argue for a causal interpretation. The empirical results in the baseline, as well as all robustness analyses, verify the main result of our theoretical model, and we employ a more general structure to further strengthen our results.

Male dominance linked to size and age, but not to 'good genes' in brown trout (Salmo trutta).

BACKGROUND: Males that are successful in intra-sexual competition are often assumed to be of superior quality. In the mating system of most salmonid species, intensive dominance fights are common and the winners monopolise most mates and sire most offspring. We drew a random sample of mature male brown trout (Salmo trutta) from two wild populations and determined their dominance hierarchy or traits linked to dominance. The fish were then stripped and their sperm was used for in vitro fertilisations in two full-factorial breeding designs. We recorded embryo viability until hatching in both experiments, and juvenile survival during 20 months after release into a natural streamlet in the second experiment. Since offspring of brown trout get only genes from their fathers, we used offspring survival as a quality measure to test (i) whether males differ in their genetic quality, and if so, (ii) whether dominance or traits linked to dominance reveal 'good genes'. RESULTS: We found significant additive genetic variance on embryo survival, i.e. males differed in their genetic quality. Older, heavier and larger males were more successful in intra-sexual selection. However, neither dominance nor dominance indicators like body length, weight or age were significantly linked to genetic quality measured as embryo or juvenile survival. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that females can improve their offspring's genetic viability by mating with large and dominant males. If there still were advantages of mating with dominant males, they may be linked to non-genetic benefits or to genetic advantages that are context dependent and therefore possibly not revealed under our experimental conditions - even if we found significant additive genetic variation for embryo viability under such conditions.

Estudos bionômicos de Dipetalogaster maximus (Uhler, 1894) (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae): III. Dinâmica populacional

A population dynamics study of D. maximus was caried out under laboratory condictions (28-C e 65% ñ 5% U.R.) and the methodology was the same that have been used for hearing this insects. In order to evaluate the population growth rate of this species, during a 24 months period, five colonies started with a couple recently emerged were observed. Each couple (a male and a female) was mantained in a glass container measuring 20 cm of diameter and 20 cm in height with filter paper on the botton. The insects were monthly feeding with normal mice blood, and at this day the number of eggs, nymphal stages and adults was registered. All graphical representations of the populations growth rate showed the same shape. It was found that the average of nymphal stage represented 64.31% of the hole population whereas the oviposition curved showed to be inverse to this one (28.57%) a small percentage of adults was found: males 3.85% and females 3.12%. In this study observations on the biologycal cycle, longevity and fertility rates were also carried out.

Religion is good, belief is better: religion, religiosity, and substance use among young swiss men.

We examined the influence of religious denomination (RD) and religiosity/spirituality on licit and illicit substance use beyond the potential impact of parental variables. Data from a representative sample of Swiss men (n = 5,387) approximately 20 years old were collected between August 2010 and November 2011. We asked single item questions about RD and religious self-description (RSD) (including aspects of spirituality). Alcohol use, smoking, and illicit drug use was measured as outcome variables. Logistic regressions (adjusting for parenting and socioeconomic background) revealed that religiosity/spirituality was inversely associated with substance use and that it was more strongly associated than denomination. RD, particularly having no denomination, was independently associated with the use of most substances. The study's limitations, and the implications for future work are noted.

La figura di Nikola Tesla (1856-1943) in Tajna Nikole Tesle (1980)

Nikola Tesla è considerato, dai divulgatori scientifici che di lui si occupano, una figura chiave nella storia della scienza moderna e contemporanea, per l’importanza che hanno avuto le sue ricerche nello sviluppo di tecnologie del XX e XXI secolo. La sua attuale scarsa fama nel piano accademico contrasta con un’abbondante presenza di un Nikola Tesla come personaggio di finzione nelle arti popolari. Questa ricezione ambigua di Tesla potrebbe essere di fatto relazionata con il carattere utopico e visionario delle sue speranze nella scienza come mezzo di conoscenza per il miglioramento della società umana. Questo breve saggio si propone di analizzare come venga presentato il personaggio di Nikola Tesla nel lungometraggio jugoslavo Tajna Nikole Tesle, contribuendo così alla comprensione di come la narrativa di finzione possa sfruttare l’immagine di uno scienziato relativamente agli interessi politici legati a specifici contesti socio-storici.

The NLRP3 inflammasome in health and disease: the good, the bad and the ugly.

While interleukin (IL)-1β plays an important role in combating the invading pathogen as part of the innate immune response, its dysregulation is responsible for a number of autoinflammatory disorders. Large IL-1β activating platforms, known as inflammasomes, can assemble in response to the detection of endogenous host and pathogen-associated danger molecules. Formation of these protein complexes results in the autocatalysis and activation of caspase-1, which processes precursor IL-1β into its secreted biologically active form. Inflammasome and IL-1β activity is required to efficiently control viral, bacterial and fungal pathogen infections. Conversely, excess IL-1β activity contributes to human disease, and its inhibition has proved therapeutically beneficial in the treatment of a spectrum of serious, yet relatively rare, heritable inflammasomopathies. Recently, inflammasome function has been implicated in more common human conditions, such as gout, type II diabetes and cancer. This raises the possibility that anti-IL-1 therapeutics may have broader applications than anticipated previously, and may be utilized across diverse disease states that are linked insidiously through unwanted or heightened inflammasome activity.