Global oceanic emission of ammonia: Constraints from seawater and atmospheric observations

Current global inventories of ammonia emissions identify the ocean as the largest natural source. This source depends on seawater pH, temperature, and the concentration of total seawater ammonia (NHx(sw)), which reflects a balance between remineralization of organic matter, uptake by plankton, and nitrification. Here we compare [NHx(sw)] from two global ocean biogeochemical models (BEC and COBALT) against extensive ocean observations. Simulated [NHx(sw)] are generally biased high. Improved simulation can be achieved in COBALT by increasing the plankton affinity for NHx within observed ranges. The resulting global ocean emissions is 2.5 TgN a−1, much lower than current literature values (7–23 TgN a−1), including the widely used Global Emissions InitiAtive (GEIA) inventory (8 TgN a−1). Such a weak ocean source implies that continental sources contribute more than half of atmospheric NHx over most of the ocean in the Northern Hemisphere. Ammonia emitted from oceanic sources is insufficient to neutralize sulfate aerosol acidity, consistent with observations. There is evidence over the Equatorial Pacific for a missing source of atmospheric ammonia that could be due to photolysis of marine organic nitrogen at the ocean surface or in the atmosphere. Accommodating this possible missing source yields a global ocean emission of ammonia in the range 2–5 TgN a−1, comparable in magnitude to other natural sources from open fires and soils.

Mercury presence and speciation in the South Atlantic Ocean along the 40°S transect

Mercury (Hg) natural biogeochemical cycle is complex and a significant portion of biological and chemical transformation occurs in the marine environment. To better understand the presence and abundance of Hg species in the remote ocean regions, waters of South Atlantic Ocean along 40°S parallel were investigated during UK-GEOTRACES cruise GA10. Total mercury (THg), methylated mercury (MeHg), and dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) concentrations were determined. The concentrations were very low in the range of pg/L (femtomolar). All Hg species had higher concentration in western than in eastern basin. THg did not appear to be a useful geotracer. Elevated methylated Hg species were commonly associated with low-oxygen water masses and occasionally with peaks of chlorophyll a, both involved with carbon (re)cycling. The overall highest MeHg concentrations were observed in themixed layer (500m) and in the vicinity of the Gough Island. Conversely, DGM concentrations showed distinct layering and differed between the water masses in a nutrient-like manner. DGM was lowest at surface, indicating degassing to the atmosphere, and was highest in the Upper Circumpolar Deep Water, where the oxygen concentration was lowest. DGM increased also in Antarctic Bottom Water. At one station, dimethylmercury was determined and showed increase in region with lowest oxygen saturation. Altogether, our data indicate that the South Atlantic Ocean could be a source of Hg to the atmosphere and that its biogeochemical transformations depend primarily upon carbon cycling and are thereby additionally prone to global ocean change.

The effects of global climate change on the cycling and processes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and gamma-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models
(HAMSOM and FANTOM, respectively). To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10-year periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in
situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. This slice mode under a moderate scenario (A1B) is sufficient to provide a basis for further analysis. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilized, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model.
Dry gas deposition and volatilization of gamma-HCH increase in the future relative to the present by up to 20% (in the spring and summer months for deposition and in summer for volatilization). In the water column, total mass of
gamma-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment,
gamma-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, due to the increased number of storms, increased duration of gale wind conditions and increased water and air temperatures, all of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.
Overall, the model results indicate that the climate change scenarios considered here generally have a negligible influence on the simulated fate and transport of the two POPs in the North Sea, although the increased number and magnitude of storms in the 21st century will result in POP resuspension and ensuing revolatilization events. Trends in emissions from primary and secondary sources will remain the key driver of levels of these contaminants over time.

Assessment of a zoomed global model for the North Sea by comparison with a conventional nested regional model

Assessment of marine downscaling of global model simulations to the regional scale is a prerequisite for understanding ocean feedback to the atmosphere in regional climate downscaling. Major difficulties arise from the coarse grid resolution of global models, which cannot provide sufficiently accurate boundary values for the regional model. In this study, we first setup a stretched global model (MPIOM) to focus on the North Sea by shifting poles. Second, a regional model (HAMSOM) was performed with higher resolution, while the open boundary values were provided by the stretched global model. In general, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the two experiments are similar. Major SST differences are found in coastal regions (root mean square difference of SST is reaching up to 2°C). The higher sea surface salinity in coastal regions in the global model indicates the general limitation of this global model and its configuration (surface layer thickness is 16 m). By comparison, the advantage of the absence of open lateral boundaries in the global model can be demonstrated, in particular for the transition region between the North Sea and Baltic Sea. On long timescales, the North Atlantic Current (NAC) inflow through the northern boundary correlates well between both model simulations (R~0.9). After downscaling with HAMSOM, the NAC inflow through the northern boundary decreases by ~10%, but the circulation in the Skagerrak is stronger in HAMSOM. The circulation patterns of both models are similar in the northern North Sea. The comparison suggests that the stretched global model system is a suitable tool for long-term free climate model simulations, and the only limitations occur in coastal regions. Regarding the regional studies focusing on the coastal zone, nested regional model can be a helpful alternative.

Wave action modifies the effects of consumer diversity and warming on algal assemblages

To understand the consequences of biodiversity loss, it is necessary to test how biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships may vary with predicted environmental change. In particular, our understanding will be advanced by studies addressing the interactive effects of multiple stressors on the role of biodiversity across trophic levels. Predicted increases in wave disturbance and ocean warming, together with climate-driven range shifts of key consumer species, are likely to have profound impacts on the dynamics of coastal marine communities. We tested whether wave action and temperature modified the effects of gastropod grazer diversity (Patella vulgata, Littorina littorea and Gibbula umbilicalis) on algal assemblages in experimental rock pools. The presence or absence of L. littorea appeared to drive changes in microalgal and macroalgal biomass and macroalgal assemblage structure. Macroalgal biomass also decreased with increasing grazer species richness, but only when wave action was enhanced. Further, independently of grazer diversity, wave action and temperature had interactive effects on macroalgal assemblage structure. Warming also led to a reversal of grazer-macroalgal interaction strengths from negative to positive, but only when there was no wave action. Our results show that hydrodynamic disturbance can exacerbate the effects of changing consumer diversity, and may also disrupt the influence of other environmental stressors on key consumer-resource interactions. These findings suggest that the combined effects of anticipated abiotic and biotic change on the functioning of coastal marine ecosystems, although difficult to predict, may be substantial.

Serving GODAE Data and Products to the Ocean Community

The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE [http:// www.godae.org]) has spanned a decade of rapid technological development. The ever-increasing volume and diversity of oceanographic data produced by in situ instruments, remote-sensing platforms, and computer simulations have driven the development of a number of innovative technologies that are essential for connecting scientists with the data that they need. This paper gives an overview of the technologies that have been developed and applied in the course of GODAE, which now provide users of oceanographic data with the capability to discover, evaluate, visualize, download, and analyze data from all over the world. The key to this capability is the ability to reduce the inherent complexity of oceanographic data by providing a consistent, harmonized view of the various data products. The challenges of data serving have been addressed over the last 10 years through the cooperative skills and energies of many individuals.

Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: Observations and model results

Observations show the oceans have warmed over the past 40 yr. with appreciable regional variation and more warming at the surface than at depth. Comparing the observations with results from two coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models [the Parallel Climate Model version 1 (PCM) and the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3)] that include anthropogenic forcing shows remarkable agreement between the observed and model-estimated warming. In this comparison the models were sampled at the same locations as gridded yearly observed data. In the top 100 m of the water column the warming is well separated from natural variability, including both variability arising from internal instabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system and that arising from volcanism and solar fluctuations. Between 125 and 200 m the agreement is not significant, but then increases again below this level, and remains significant down to 600 m. Analysis of PCM's heat budget indicates that the warming is driven by an increase in net surface heat flux that reaches 0.7 W m(-2) by the 1990s; the downward longwave flux increases bv 3.7 W m(-2). which is not fully compensated by an increase in the upward longwave flux of 2.2 W m(-2). Latent and net solar heat fluxes each decrease by about 0.6 W m(-2). The changes in the individual longwave components are distinguishable from the preindustrial mean by the 1920s, but due to cancellation of components. changes in the net surface heat flux do not become well separated from zero until the 1960s. Changes in advection can also play an important role in local ocean warming due to anthropogenic forcing, depending, on the location. The observed sampling of ocean temperature is highly variable in space and time. but sufficient to detect the anthropogenic warming signal in all basins, at least in the surface layers, bv the 1980s.

Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion

A suite of climate model experiments indicates that 20th Century increases in ocean heat content and sea-level ( via thermal expansion) were substantially reduced by the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The volcanically-induced cooling of the ocean surface is subducted into deeper ocean layers, where it persists for decades. Temporary reductions in ocean heat content associated with the comparable eruptions of El Chichon ( 1982) and Pinatubo ( 1991) were much shorter lived because they occurred relative to a non-stationary background of large, anthropogenically-forced ocean warming. Our results suggest that inclusion of the effects of Krakatoa ( and perhaps even earlier eruptions) is important for reliable simulation of 20th century ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. Inter-model differences in the oceanic thermal response to Krakatoa are large and arise from differences in external forcing, model physics, and experimental design. Systematic experimentation is required to quantify the relative importance of these factors. The next generation of historical forcing experiments may require more careful treatment of pre-industrial volcanic aerosol loadings.

Recent trends in sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean region

During the second half of the twentieth century the Indian Ocean exhibited a rapid rise in sea surface temperatures (SST). It has been argued - largely on the basis of experiments with atmospheric GCMs - that this rapid warming was an important cause of remote changes in climate, in particular an increasing trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and decreases in African rainfall. Here however we present evidence that the Indian Ocean warming was associated with local increases in sea level pressure (SLP). These increases are inconsistent with results from experiments in which an atmospheric GCM is forced by historical SST, which show robust decreases in SLP. The clear discrepancy between the observed and simulated trends in SLP suggests that the response of some atmospheric GCMs to the Indian Ocean warming may not provide a reliable guide to the behaviour of the real world.

Sustained monitoring of the Southern Ocean at Drake Passage: past achievements and future priorities

Drake Passage is the narrowest constriction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in the Southern Ocean, with implications for global ocean circulation and climate. We review the long-term sustained monitoring programmes that have been conducted at Drake Passage, dating back to the early part of the twentieth century. Attention is drawn to numerous breakthroughs that have been made from these programmes, including (a) the first determinations of the complex ACC structure and early quantifications of its transport; (b) realization that the ACC transport is remarkably steady over interannual and longer periods, and a growing understanding of the processes responsible for this; (c) recognition of the role of coupled climate modes in dictating the horizontal transport, and the role of anthropogenic processes in this; (d) understanding of mechanisms driving changes in both the upper and lower limbs of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, and their impacts. It is argued that monitoring of this passage remains a high priority for oceanographic and climate research, but that strategic improvements could be made concerning how this is conducted. In particular, long-term programmes should concentrate on delivering quantifications of key variables of direct relevance to large-scale environmental issues: in this context, the time-varying overturning circulation is, if anything, even more compelling a target than the ACC flow. Further, there is a need for better international resource-sharing, and improved spatio-temporal coordination of the measurements. If achieved, the improvements in understanding of important climatic issues deriving from Drake Passage monitoring can be sustained into the future.

Atlantic Heat Conveyor (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is part of a global ocean circulation that redistributes heat from Equatorial to Polar regions. In the Atlantic the MOC carries heat northward (the Atlantic Heat Conveyor) which is released to the atmosphere and maintains UK temperatures between 3 to 5°C higher than elsewhere at similar latitudes. However, the present strength and structure of the MOC may not continue. The 2007 IPCC assessment report (IPCC, 2007) suggests that there is less than 10% chance of abrupt changes during the 21st Century, but that there is greater than 90% chance that MOC will slow by an average of 25% compared to pre-industrial levels, offsetting some of the warming over the European sector of the North Atlantic, and contributing to the rate of sea-level-rise. Daily observations using the RAPID MOC mooring array at 26.5°N are providing a continuous and growing time-series of the MOC strength and structure, but the five year record is at present too short to establish trends in the annual mean MOC. Other observations do not at present provide a coherent Atlantic wide picture of MOC variability, and there is little evidence of any long-term slowing. Ocean assimilation models suggest a slowing over the past decade of around 10%. However, models still have many problems in representing ocean circulation and conclusions of change are very uncertain.

Atlantic meridional heat transports in two ocean reanalyes evaluated against the RAPID array

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in two versions of the NEMO ¼° global ocean model has been compared with the RAPID transport array at 26oN. Both model versions reproduce the mean MOC strength well although the Florida Straits flows differ because the pathway of the Gulf Stream is not strongly constrained at this resolution. Both models however have a mean meridional heat transport of 1.07PW, much lower than the 1.35PW from RAPID observations in Apr04-Oct07. Much of the heat transport discrepancy is due to lower transports in summer across the MidOcean (Bahamas-Africa) section, due to stronger southward geostrophic flows in the top 100m where the water is warmest. Seasonal thermocline changes increase temperature differences across the basin driving stronger geostrophic shear, but this effect is much weaker in the top 100m of the RAPID velocity data. The effect accounts for a reduction of 1.1Sv in MOC and 0.1PW in heat transports. The rest of the discrepancy comes from lower Ekman transports from using ERAInterim winds instead of QuikSCAT, a smaller zonally-varying “Eddy” heat transport component, estimated from repeat XBT sections in the observations, and the southward throughflow in the model. Other differences in depth structure of the model MOC and RAPID observations are described but have much less impact on heat transports.

The reversibility of sea level rise

During the last century, global climate has been warming, and projections indicate that such a warming is likely to continue over coming decades. Most of the extra heat is stored in the ocean, resulting in thermal expansion of seawater and global mean sea level rise. Previous studies have shown that after CO2 emissions cease or CO2 concentration is stabilized, global mean surface air temperature stabilizes or decreases slowly, but sea level continues to rise. Using idealized CO2 scenario simulations with a hierarchy of models including an AOGCM and a step-response model, the authors show how the evolution of thermal expansion can be interpreted in terms of the climate energy balance and the vertical profile of ocean warming. Whereas surface temperature depends on cumulative CO2 emissions, sea level rise due to thermal expansion depends on the time profile of emissions. Sea level rise is smaller for later emissions, implying that targets to limit sea level rise would need to refer to the rate of emissions, not only to the time integral. Thermal expansion is in principle reversible, but to halt or reverse it quickly requires the radiative forcing to be reduced substantially, which is possible on centennial time scales only by geoengineering. If it could be done, the results indicate that heat would leave the ocean more readily than it entered, but even if thermal expansion were returned to zero, the geographical pattern of sea level would be altered. Therefore, despite any aggressive CO2 mitigation, regional sea level change is inevitable.

Thermobaric control of gravitational potential energy generation by diapycnal mixing in the deep ocean

Sources and sinks of gravitational potential energy (GPE) play a rate-limiting role in the large scale ocean circulation. A key source is turbulent diapycnal mixing, whereby irre- versible mixing across isoneutral surfaces is enhanced by turbulent straining of these surfaces. This has motivated international observational efforts to map diapycnal mixing in the global ocean. However, in order to accurately relate the GPE supplied to the large scale circulation by diapycnal mixing to the mixing energy source, it is first necessary to determine the ratio, ξ , of the GPE generation rate to the available potential energy dissipation rate associated with turbulent mixing. Here, the link between GPE and hydro- static pressure is used to derive the GPE budget for a com- pressible ocean with a nonlinear equation of state. The role of diapycnal mixing is isolated and from this a global cli- matological distribution of ξ is calculated. It is shown that, for a given source of mixing energy, typically three times as much GPE is generated if the mixing takes place in bottom waters rather than in the pycnocline. This is due to GPE destruction by cabbelling in the pycnocline, as opposed to thermobaric enhancement of GPE generation by diapycnal mixing in the deep ocean.

Atlantic overturning in decline?

Global ocean circulation is an important factor in climate variability and change. In particular, changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have been implicated in ancient climate events, as well as in recent climate anomalies such as the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid-1990s. A series of moored current meters and temperature sensors deployed in the Atlantic at 26° N known as the RAPID-MOCHA array has been used to monitor the strength of meridional overturning since 2004. The data indicate a decline in this strength over the period 2004–20123. Here, using additional observations and climate model simulations we suggest that this measured decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation, but is part of a substantial reduction in meridional overturning occurring on a decadal timescale.