Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models.

Mobility and Aging in Denver, Colorado: Travel Behavior, Mobility Barriers, and Perceptions of Transit

The number of seniors in the U.S. today is growing rapidly because of longer life expectancies and the aging Baby Boomer generation. This age groups' travel behavior will have substantial impacts on transportation, economics, safety, and the environment. This research used a mixed-methods approach to address issues of mobility and aging in Denver, Colorado. A quantitative approach was used to answer broad questions about travel behavior and the effects of age, gender, work status, disability, residential location and socio-economic status on mobility. Qualitative interviews with seniors in the Denver metro area were conducted to identify barriers to mobility, decision-making processes and travel decisions, and seniors' perceptions of public transit. The results of the quantitative and qualitative analyses show that residential location is an important variable for determining seniors' travel behaviors and transportation options. Perceptions of public transit were positive, but accessibility and information barriers exist that prevent older adult from using transit. The findings of this study will help to provide transportation and service recommendations to policymakers and planners in the Denver area as well as to inform studies of other North American cities with large aging populations.

Eastern Africa showing expedition route of Speke and Grant, 1863 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Map of the route explored by Captns. Speke & Grant from Zanzibar to Egypt : showing the outfall of the Nile from the Victoria Nyanza (Lake) and the various Negro territories discovered by them. It was published by Edward Stanford in 1863. Scale [ca. 1:5,800,000]. Covers portions of north and eastern Africa including parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and projected to the 'World Mercator' projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, expedition routes of John Speke and James Grant, cities and other human settlements, tribe and territorial boundaries, and more. Relief is shown by hachures. Includes location map and text. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection and the Harvard University Library as part of the Open Collections Program at Harvard University project: Organizing Our World: Sponsored Exploration and Scientific Discovery in the Modern Age. Maps selected for the project correspond to various expeditions and represent a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Environmental assessment : Gunnison travel interim restrictions : portions of Gunnison, Hinsdale, Delta, Montrose, and Saguache counties, Colorado.

"August, 2000."

Managing the threat of terrorism in British travel and leisure organizations

Purpose - To study how the threats of terrorism are being handled by a variety of UK companies in the travel and leisure sector in the UK in the post 9/11 era. Design/methodology/approach - A review of the literature of risk management in a world that is perceived to be more risky as a result of the terrorist attacks on the US on 11 September 2001 (9/11) is presented. Describes the application of theories of organizational resilience and institutions to frame an understanding of how managers make sense of terrorism risk and comprehend uncertainty. Reports a qualitative analysis of themes in interviews conducted with 25 managers from 6 unnamed organizations in the aviation industry (3 organizations) and the UK travel and leisure industry (3 organizations), representing a catering supplier, an airport, an airline, a tour company, a convention centre, and an arts and entertainment centre. Findings - The results indicated that the three organizations in the aviation industry prioritize threats from terrorism, whilst the three organizations in the leisure and travel sector do not, suggesting that the managers in the travel and leisure industry apply a probabilistic type of thinking and believe the likelihood of terrorism to be low. Reports that they give precedence to economic concerns and numerous other threats to the industry. Concludes that managers fall prey to the 'ludic fallacy', which conceives all odds as being calculable and hence managers conceive the terrorism risk as low while also expecting institutional factors to pre-empt and control terrorism threats, a reaction which the authors believe to be rather complacent and dangerous. Originality/value - Contributes to the research literature on risk management by revealing the gap in the ability of existing management tools and methodologies to deal with current and uncertain threats facing organizations due to terrorism.

A New Vision: U.S Travel and Tourism Industry

Greg Farmer, U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for Travel and Tourism, envisions a new proactive role for travel and tourism in the U.S. He has written this article especially for the FIU Hospitality Review.

Demographic, Behavioral and Perceptual Comparisons of U.S Visitor Experience with Group Package Tours and Free Independent Travel to China

U.S. visitor demand for the China travel experience is anticipated to rise significantly through 2105, causing the Chinese government to employ 100 million service providers over the next six years and raising concern about service delivery and perceptions of the on-site China experience. In an effort to better understand these issues concerning U.S. visitors, this study investigated two specific types of U.S. travelers to China: Group Package Tour (GPT) visitors and Free Independent Travel (FIT) visitors. Results indicated that GPT visitors were more likely to be older and have higher household income than FIT visitors. Four trip-related characteristics of GPT and FIT visitors were found to be significantly different, with GPT visitors showing higher levels of satisfaction with the overall China on-site travel experience.

Tequila at Sunrise: Spring Break Travel Motivations and Risk Behaviors of American Students in Acapulco, Mexico

Little research has been completed regarding spring break motivations and behaviors of American students in foreign destinations, specifically in Mexico. This paper looks at push and pull motivations in relation to drug and alcohol consumption and findings indicate greater drug and alcohol use among those who selected “party reputation” and “to go wild” as travel motivations. Binge drinking, sexual activity, and drug use among students on spring break in Acapulco, Mexico were also analyzed and compared to past findings within the United States. Results suggest that students are involved in heavy alcohol consumption and significant drug use. Additionally, high rates of sexual activity occur on spring break and results suggest low condom use, placing students at higher risks for the contraction of sexually transmitted infections.

Place, policy and practitioners: on rehabilitation, independence and the therapeutic landscape in the changing geography of care provision to older people in the United Kingdom

A growing body of literature in geography and other social sciences considers the role of place in the provision of healthcare. Authors have focused on various aspects of place and care, with particular interests emerging around the role of the psychological, social and cultural aspects of place in care provision. As healthcare stretches increasingly beyond the traditional four walls of the hospital, so questions of the role of place in practices of care become ever more pertinent. In this paper, we examine the relationship between place and practice in the care and rehabilitation of older people across a range of settings, using qualitative material obtained from interviews and focus groups with nursing, care and rehabilitation staff working in hospitals, clients’ homes and other sites. By analysing their testimony on the characteristics of different settings, the aspects of place which facilitate or inhibit rehabilitation and the ways in which place mediates and is mediated by social interaction, we consider how various dimensions of place relate to the power-inscribed relationships between service users, informal carers and professionals as they negotiate the goals of the rehabilitation process. We seek to demonstrate how the physical, psychological and social meanings of place and the social processes engendered by the rehabilitation encounter interact to produce landscapes that are more or less therapeutic, considering in particular the structuring role of state policy and formal healthcare provision in this dynamic.

Biodiversity: bridging the gap between condition and conservation

The aim of this study is to create a two-tiered assessment combining restoration and conservation, both needed for biodiversity management. The first tier of this approach assesses the condition of a site using a standard bioassessment method, AUSRIVAS, to determine whether significant loss of biodiversity has occurred because of human activity. The second tier assesses the conservation value of sites that were determined to be unimpacted in the first step against a reference database. This ensures maximum complementarity without having to set a priori target areas. Using the reference database, we assign site-specific and comparable coefficients for both restoration (Observed/Expected taxa with > 50% probability of occurrence) and conservation values (O/E taxa with < 50%, rare taxa). In a trial on 75 sites on rivers around Sydney, NSW, Australia we were able to identify three regions: (1) an area that may need restoration; (2) an area that had a high conservation value and; (3) a region that was identified as having significant biodiversity loss but with high potential to respond to rehabilitation and become a biodiversity hotspot. These examples highlight the use of the new framework as a comprehensive system for biodiversity assessment.

Australia, the United States and a 'China growing strong': managing conflict avoidance

How to deal with a rising China constitutes one of the most seminal challenges facing the ANZUS alliance since its inception a half a century ago. Australia must reconcile its geography and economic interests in Asia with its post-war strategic and historic cultural orientation towards the United States. It must succeed in this policy task without alienating either Beijing or Washington in the process. The extent to which this is achieved will shape Australia's national security posture for decades to come. Three specific components of the 'Sino-American-Australian' triangle are assessed here: the future of Taiwan, the American development of a National Missile Defence (NMD), and the interplay between Sino-American power balancing and multilateral security politics. The policy stakes for Australia and for the continued viability of ANZUS are high in all three policy areas as a new US Administration takes office in early 2001. The article concludes that Australia's best interest is served by applying deliberate modes of decisionmaking in its own relations with both China and the US and by facilitating consistent and systematic dialogue and consultations with both of those great powers on key strategic issues.

Sediment yield and impacts from river catchments to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon

Land use intensification is estimated to result in an overall increase in sediment delivery to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon by a factor of approximately four. Modelling suggests that, following land use intensification, croplands cause the greatest increase of sediment yield and sediment concentration, whereas erosion of grazing land is the main contemporary source of sediments, primarily owing to the large spatial extent of this land use. The spatial pattern of sediment yield to the coast after land use intensification is strongly correlated with the pattern under natural conditions, although the greatest increase is estimated to have occurred in the wet-dry catchments. Sediment transport and resuspension processes have led to the development of a strongly sediment-partitioned shelf, with modern mud-rich sediments almost exclusively restricted to the inner and inner-middle shelf, northward-facing embayments and in the lee of headlands. Elevated sediment concentrations increase the potential transport rates of nutrients and other pollutants. Whether increased sediment supply to the coastal zone has impacted on reefs remains a point of contention. More sediment load data need to be collected and analysed in order to make detailed estimates of catchment yields and establish the possible sediment impact on the Great Barrier Reef.

Transport safety for older people: A study of their experiences, perceptions and management needs

With evidence of increasing accident risk due to age-related declines in health and cognition affecting driver performance, there is a need for research promoting safe mobility of older people. The present study aimed to identify transport options and licensing issues for a group of older people in an Australian community. Ninety-five participants aged 75 and over were interviewed about their driving status and accident record and tested for cognitive ability. After stratification on cognitive level and driver status (current, ex-driver or non-driver), 30 were selected for further in-depth interviews concerning demographics, licence status and impact of change, travel options available and used, and travel characteristics. Considerable reliance on the motor vehicle as the mode of transport and the decision to cease driving were major quality-of-life issues. There was little evidence of planning and support in making the decision to stop driving. Some differences in transport decisions on the basis of cognitive level were evident; however, people with severely compromised cognitive ability (and, therefore, unable to give informed consent) had been excluded. The study suggested the need for resources to assist older people/carers/health professionals to plan for the transition from driver to non-driver and to manage alternative transport options more effectively

Oceanic interchange and nonequilibrium population structure in the estuarine dependent Indo-Pacific tasselfish, Polynemus sheridani

We assayed mtDNA haplotype [300 base pairs (bp) control region] geography and genealogy in the Indo-Pacific tasselfish, Polynemus sheridani from its contiguous estuarine distribution across northern Australia (n = 169). Eight estuaries were sampled from three oceanographic regions (Timor Sea, Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea) to assess the impact of Pleistocene sea level changes on the historical connectivity among P. sheridani populations. Specifically, we investigated the genetic consequences of disruption to Indian-Pacific Ocean connectivity brought about by the closure of the Torres Strait. Overall there was significant population subdivision among estuaries (F-ST = 0.161, (Phi(ST) = 0.187). Despite a linear distribution, P. sheridani did not show isolation by distance over the entire sampled range because of genetic similarity of estuaries greater than 3000 km apart. However, significant isolation by distance was detected between estuaries separated by less than 3000 km of coastline. Unlike many genetic studies of Indo-Pacific marine species, there was no evidence for an historical division between eastern and western populations. Instead, phylogeographical patterns were dominated by a starlike intraspecific phylogeny coupled with evidence for population expansion in both the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea but not the Timor Sea. This was interpreted as evidence for recent west to east recolonization across of northern Australia following the last postglacial marine advance. We argue that although sufficient time has elapsed postcolonization for populations to approach gene flow-drift equilibrium over smaller spatial scales (< 3000 km), the signal of historical colonization persists to obscure the expected equilibrium pattern of isolation by distance over large spatial scales (> 3000 km).