Análise espacial do padrão de introdução e disseminação da dengue nos municípios do Espírito Santo

O número de municípios infestados pelo Aedes aegypti no Estado do Espírito Santo vem aumentando gradativamente, levando a altas taxas de incidência de dengue ao longo dos anos. Apesar das tentativas de combate à doença, esta se tornou uma das maiores preocupações na saúde pública do Estado. Este estudo se propõe a descrever a dinâmica da expansão da doença no Estado a partir da associação entre variáveis ambientais e populacionais, utilizando dados operacionalizados por meio de técnicas de geoprocessamento. O estudo utilizou como fonte de dados a infestação pelo mosquito vetor e o coeficiente de incidência da doença, as distâncias rodoviárias intermunicipais do Estado, a altitude dos municípios e as variáveis geoclimáticas (temperatura e suficiência de água), incorporadas a uma ferramenta operacional, as Unidades Naturais do Espírito Santo (UNES), representadas em um único mapa operacionalizado em Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), obtido a partir do Sistema Integrado de Bases Georreferenciadas do Estado do Espírito Santo. Para análise dos dados, foi realizada a Regressão de Poisson para os dados de incidência de dengue e Regressão Logística para os de infestação pelo vetor. Em seguida, os dados de infestação pelo mosquito e incidência de dengue foram georreferenciados, utilizando como ferramenta operacional o SIG ArcGIS versão 9.2. Observou-se que a pluviosidade é um fator que contribui para o surgimento de mosquito em áreas não infestadas. Altas temperaturas contribuem para um alto coeficiente de incidência de dengue nos municípios capixabas. A variável distância em relação a municípios populosos é um fator de proteção para a incidência da doença. A grande variabilidade encontrada nos dados, que não é explicada pelas variáveis utilizadas no modelo para incidência da doença, reforça a premissa de que a dengue é condicionada pela interação dinâmica entre muitas variáveis que o estudo não abordou. A espacialização dos dados de infestação pelo mosquito e incidência de dengue e as Zonas Naturais do ES permitiu a visualização da influência das variáveis estatisticamente significantes nos modelos utilizados no padrão da introdução e disseminação da doença no Estado.

Narrowing inequalities in infant mortality in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To determine the trends of infant mortality from 1995 to 1999 according to a geographic area-based measure of maternal education in Porto Alegre, Brazil. METHODS: A registry-based study was carried out and a municipal database created in 1994 was used. All live births (n=119,170) and infant deaths (n=1,934) were considered. Five different geographic areas were defined according to quintiles of the percentage of low maternal educational level (<6 years of schooling): high, medium high, medium, medium low, and low. The chi-square test for trend was used to compare rates between years. Incidence rate ratio was calculated using Poisson regression to identify excess infant mortality in poorer areas compared to higher schooling areas. RESULTS: The infant mortality rate (IMR) decreased steadily from 18.38 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1995 to 12.21 in 1999 (chi-square for trend p<0.001). Both neonatal and post-neonatal mortality rates decreased although the drop seemed to be steeper for the post-neonatal component. The higher decline was seen in poorer areas. CONCLUSION: Inequalities in IMR seem to have decreased due to a steeper reduction in both neonatal and post-neonatal components of infant mortality in lower maternal schooling area.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

3D-2D image registration by nonlinear regression

We propose a 3D-2D image registration method that relates image features of 2D projection images to the transformation parameters of the 3D image by nonlinear regression. The method is compared with a conventional registration method based on iterative optimization. For evaluation, simulated X-ray images (DRRs) were generated from coronary artery tree models derived from 3D CTA scans. Registration of nine vessel trees was performed, and the alignment quality was measured by the mean target registration error (mTRE). The regression approach was shown to be slightly less accurate, but much more robust than the method based on an iterative optimization approach.

Geotecnia urbana da zona ribeirinha de Vila Nova de Gaia (Cais de Gaia, Santa Marinha – Lavadores, Canidelo): uma avaliação preliminar

Mestrado em Engenharia Geotécnica e Geoambiente

Quantification of endocrine disruptors and pesticides in water by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Method validation using weighted linear regression schemes

Amulti-residue methodology based on a solid phase extraction followed by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry was developed for trace analysis of 32 compounds in water matrices, including estrogens and several pesticides from different chemical families, some of them with endocrine disrupting properties. Matrix standard calibration solutions were prepared by adding known amounts of the analytes to a residue-free sample to compensate matrix-induced chromatographic response enhancement observed for certain pesticides. Validation was done mainly according to the International Conference on Harmonisation recommendations, as well as some European and American validation guidelines with specifications for pesticides analysis and/or GC–MS methodology. As the assumption of homoscedasticity was not met for analytical data, weighted least squares linear regression procedure was applied as a simple and effective way to counteract the greater influence of the greater concentrations on the fitted regression line, improving accuracy at the lower end of the calibration curve. The method was considered validated for 31 compounds after consistent evaluation of the key analytical parameters: specificity, linearity, limit of detection and quantification, range, precision, accuracy, extraction efficiency, stability and robustness.

Self-perceived health status in older adults: regional and sociodemographic inequalities in Spain

OBJECTIVE: To assess regional and sociodemographic differences in self-perceived health status among older adults. METHODS: A face-to-face quality of life survey was conducted in a representative sample of the Spanish population comprising 1,106 non-institutionalized elderly aged 60 or more in 2008. Logistic regression models were used to explain self-perceived health status according to the EuroQol Group Visual Analogue Scale (EQ-VAS). Independent variables included sociodemographic and health characteristics as well as the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics level 1 (NUTS1: group of autonomous regions) and level 2 (NUTS 2: autonomous regions). RESULTS: Younger and better off respondents were more likely to have a positive self-perceived health status. Having no chronic conditions, independence in performing daily living activities and lower level of depression were also associated with positive self-perceived health status. People living in the south of Spain showed a more negative self-perceived health status than those living in other regions. CONCLUSION: The study results point to health inequality among Spanish older adults of lower socioeconomic condition and living in the south of Spain. The analysis by geographic units allows for international cross-regional comparisons.

Estudo Estratigráfico e Paleontológico do Jurássico do Algarve Ocidental

Algarve Province, Southern Portugal, corresponds in part to a meso-cenozoic basin running along the coast from Cabo S. Vicente to beyond Spanish border. Structurally it is a big monocline plunging southwards much deformed mainly by two East-West longitudinal flexures. Lithostratigraphical and chronostratigraphical studies dealt specially with Jurassic formations. This and the geological mapping of the post-Hercynian sedimentary formations allow us to define the following units: Triassic-Lower Liassic Arenitos de Silves (Silves sandstones sensu P. Choffat, pro parte) - At their base the Silves sandstones (0-150m) are represented mainly by cross-bedded red sandstones. This unit is Upper Triassic (Keuper) in age, on the evidence of some Brachiopoda. Complexo margo-carbonatado de Silves (Silves marl-limestone complex=Silves sandstones sensu P. Choffat, pro parte) (80-200m) overlies the preceding, it may be reported to the Upper Triassic-Hettangian. It consists of a thick pelite-marl-dolomite-limestone series with many intercalations of greenstones. Since no fossils were found it is not possible to conclude whether it is still Hettangian or if it does correspond, in the whole or in part, already to the Sinemurian. Liassic Dolomitos e calcários dolomíticos de Espiche (Espiche dolomite-rocks and dolomitic-limestones) - The usually massive and finely crystalline or saccharoidal dolomites and dolomitic-limestones are the toughest strata of the Algarve margin giving rise to several hills. Its thickness attains in certain points 60 metres at least. Based on geometry and on lithological similarities with the carbonated complex of the northern basin of Tagus river (Peniche, São Pedro de Muel, Quiaios), this formation can be accepted as Sinemurian in age. As it happens with the carbonated complex, here also the first dolomite beds are non-isochronal throughout the region; upper time-limit of the dolomitic facies is either Lower Carixian, Lower Toarcian or even Lower Dogger. The dolomitization is secondary but not much later than sedimentation. However, between Cabo S. Vicente-Vila do Bispo there is evidence of an even later secondary dolomitization related to the regional fault complex. Calcário dolomítico com nódulos de silex da praia de Belixe (Belixe beach dolomitic-limestone with silex nodules) (50-55m) - Ascribed to Lower or Middle Carixian on the basis of Platypleuroceras sp., Metaderoceras sp. nov. and M. gr. Venarense. Calcário cristalino compacto com Protogrammoceras, Fuciniceras e ? Argutarpites de Belixe (Belixe compact crystalline limestone with Protogrammoceras, Fuciniceras and ? Argutarpites) (30m) - Ascribed to Lower Domerian. Middle and Upper Domerian are indicated but by a single specimen of ? Argutarpites. Calcários margosos e margas com Dactylioceras semicelatum e Harpoceratídeos de Armação Nova (Armação Nova marly limestones and marls with D. semicelatum and Harpoceratidae) (25m) -Ascribed to Lower Toarcian. Middle and Upper Toarcian formations are not known in the Algarve. Dogger Calcários oolíticos, c. corálicos, c. pisolíticos, c. calciclásticos, c. dolomíticos e dolomitos de Almadena (Almadena oolitic-limestones, coral-reef-limestones, pisolite-limestones, limeclastic-limestones, dolomitic-limestones and dolomite-rocks) (more than 50 metres), with lagoonal facies. Ascribed to Aalenian-Bathonian-? Callovian. Margas acinzentadas e calcários detríticos com Zoophycos da praia de Mareta (Mareta beach greyish marls and detritical limestones with Zoophycos) (40m) - Pelagic transreef facies with Upper Bajocian and Bathonian ammonites. Calcários margosos e margas da praia de Mareta (Mareta beach pelagic marly-limestones and marls) (110m) - Ascribed to the Callovian on its ammonites. Malm Near Cabo S. Vicente and Sagres the first Upper Jurassic level consists of a yellowish-brown nodular, compact, locally phosphated and ferruginous, sometimes conglomeratic, marly limestone (0,35-1,50m) containing a rich macrofauna, which includes: 1) Callovian forms unknown at Lower Oxfordian; 2) Upper Callovian forms that still survived in Lower and Middle Oxfordian; 3) Lower Oxfordian forms (Mariae and Cordatum Zones); 4) Lower and Middle Oxfordian forms (Mariae to Plicatilis Zone); 5) Middle Oxfordian forms (plicatilis Zone), and some ones appearing in Middle Oxfordian. This condensed deposit is therefore dated from Middle Oxfordian (Plicatilis Zone). The other Upper Jurassic lithostratigraphical units were also mapped but their detailed study is not presented in this work. Correlations between lithostratigraphical and chronostratigraphical scales from P. Choffat, J. Pratsch, C. Palain and from the author are stated. Further correlations are attempted between zonc scales of Carixian-Lower Toarcian and Upper Bajocian-Middle Oxfordian of France, Spain (Asturias, Iberian and Betic Chains), Argel (Orania) and Portugal (northern Tagus basin and Algarve). The study of pyritous fossil assemblages common in Upper Bathonian-Lower Callovian marly levels of the praia da Mareta seems to suggest that these sediments were deposited in a bay or in an almost closed coastal re-entrance virtually without deep water circulation. Although such conditions may occur at any depth one may suppose that these ones actually correspond to an infralittoral neritic environment. The thaphocoenosis collected there are almost entirely composed of nektonic (ammonites, Belemnites) and planktonic (Bositra) faunas. The sedentary (crinoids, brachiopods) or free (sea-urchins, gastropods) epibenthonic forms are very scarce; endobenthonic forms are not known. The palaeontological study of all Nautiloids and Ammonoids of the Liassic and Dogger is presented (except Kosmoceratidae and Perisphinctaceae). Among the thirty one taxa dealt with, one is new (Metaderoceras sp. nov.) and the great majority of the others has been identified for the first time in Algarve. Some others have never been reported before in Portuguese formations. The evolution, during Jurassic times, of the sedimentary basins of the Portuguese plate margin is described. The absence of Cephalopods in the very extensive marly and dolomitic limestones, partly marine, suggests that, during Lower Liassic, palaeogeography underwent no great changes. Dolomitic-limestone with silex nodules from Cabo S. Vicente contain the first ammonites recorded at the base of the Middle Liassic. This facies, although very common in Tethys, is unknown north of the Tagus. The faunal assemblage has a mediterranean to submediterranean character. Comparisons between faunal assemblage" from Algarve with the ones known north of the Tagus show that communications between Boreal Europe and Tethys, virtually non-existent during Lower and Middle Carixian, became very easy during Lower Domerian. In earlier Pliensbachian times two distinct seas were adjacent to the Iberian plate. One, an epicontinental sea with a tethyan fauna, extended southwards from the Meseta margin. Another, was a boreal sea; during its transgressive episodes boreal faunas attained into the basin north of the Tagus. During Middle Carixian and Lower Domerian, owing to simultaneous transgressions, these two seas joined together allowing faunal exchanges along the epicontinental areas which limited the emerging hercynian chains belts. During Liassic, the Algarve belonged undoubtedly to the tethyan submediterranean province. The area north of the Tagus, on the contrary, was a complex realm where subboreal and tethyan affinities alternatively prevailed. In the Algarve the first Middle Jurassic deposits do frequently show lateral thickness reductions as well as unconformities contemporaneous with other generalized disturbances on the sedimentation processes in other parts of Europe. By this time, near Sagres, a barrier reef developed separating lagoonal or ante-reef facies from the transreef pelagic zone. The presence of tethyan fauna, the abundance of Phylloceratidae and the absence of boreal forms allow us to consider the Algarve basin as a submediterranean province. The presence of Callovian pelagic fossiliferous formations in the Loulé area shows that during Middle Jurassic the marl-limestone transreef sedimentation was not confined to the western Algarve. They would extend eastwards where they only can be seen in the core of some anticlines. This is due to the progressive sinking of the meso-cenozoic formations as we proceed towards the South of the Sagres-Algoz-Querença flexure. In the whole of the Peninsule, and as for the Middle Callovian, an important regression can be clearly recognized on the evidence of an erosion surface which strikes obliquely the Middle and Upper Callovian strata. The geographic boundaries of the different faunal provinces are not changed by the presence of many Kosmoceratidae in the phosphate nodules since they are but a minority in comparison with the tethyan forms. An abstract model can be constructed showing that in Western Europe the Kosmoceratidae may have migrated South and westwards through a channel of the sea that linked Paris basin to Poitou and Aquitaine. By migrating between the Iberian meseta and the Armorican massif this fauna reached northern Tagus basin at the beginning of Upper Callovian (Athleta Zone); this south and southwest bound migration would have proceeded, allowing such forms to reach Algarve basin only in latest Callovian times (Lamberti Zone). This migration means that during Middle Jurassic a widely spread North Atlantic sea would exist, flooding the western part of Portugal up to the Poitou.

Collaborative geographic visualization

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Forest cover monitoring in the Bara district (Nepal) with remote sensing and geographic information systems

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Análise exploratória de critérios de implementação de uma rede viária em áreas de montanha

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Modelação espacial do risco de ignição em Portugal Continental

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Discovery and retrieval of Geographic data using Google

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Evaluation of temporal, seasonal and geographic stability of the molluscicidal property of Euphorbia splendens latex

Laboratory tests with aqueous solutions of Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii latex have demonstrated seasonal stability of the molluscicidal principle, with LD90 values of 1.14 ppm (spring), 1.02 ppm (fall), 1.09 ppm (winter), and 1.07 ppm (summer) that have been determined against Biomphalaria tenagophila in the field. Assays on latex collected in Belo Horizonte and Recife yielded LD90 values similar to those obtained with the reference substance collected in Rio de Janeiro (Ilha do Governador), demonstrating geographic stability of the molluscicidal effect. The molluscicidal action of aqueous dilutions of the latex in natura, centrifuged (precipitate) and lyophilized, was stable for up to 124 days at room temperature (in natura) and for up to 736 days in a common refrigerator at 10 to 12ºC (lyophilized product). A 5.0 ppm solution is 100% lethal for snails up to 13 days after preparation, the effect being gradually lost to almost total inactivity by the 30th day. This observation indicated that the active principle is instable. These properties together with the wide distribution of the plant, its resistance and adaptation to the tropical climate, its easy cultivation and the easy obtention of latex and preparation of the molluscicidal solution, make this a promising material for large-scale use in the control of schistosomiasis