An implementation of genetic algorithms as a basis for a trading system on the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process is very helpful. In this paper, we try to create such a system with a genetic algorithm engine to emulate trader behaviour on the foreign exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.

Optimal dispatch of spinning reserve in a competitive electricity market using genetic algorithms

Ancillary service plays a key role in maintaining operation security of the power system in a competitive electricity market. The spinning reserve is one of the most important ancillary services that should be provided effectively. This paper presents the design of an integrated market for energy and spinning reserve service with particular emphasis on coordinated dispatch of bulk power and spinning reserve services. A new market dispatching mechanism has been developed to minimize the cost of service while maintaining system security. Genetic algorithms (GA) are used for finding the global optimal solutions for this dispatch problem. Case studies and corresponding analyses have been carried out to demonstrate and discuss the efficiency and usefulness of the proposed method.

Optimal design of a regenerative dynamic dynamometer using genetic algorithms

This paper presents an approach for optimal design of a fully regenerative dynamic dynamometer using genetic algorithms. The proposed dynamometer system includes an energy storage mechanism to adaptively absorb the energy variations following the dynamometer transients. This allows the minimum power electronics requirement at the mains power supply grid to compensate for the losses. The overall dynamometer system is a dynamic complex system and design of the system is a multi-objective problem, which requires advanced optimisation techniques such as genetic algorithms. The case study of designing and simulation of the dynamometer system indicates that the genetic algorithm based approach is able to locate a best available solution in view of system performance and computational costs.

Modelling the dynamics of genetic algorithms using statistical mechanics

A formalism for modelling the dynamics of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) using methods from statistical mechanics, originally due to Prugel-Bennett and Shapiro, is reviewed, generalized and improved upon. This formalism can be used to predict the averaged trajectory of macroscopic statistics describing the GA's population. These macroscopics are chosen to average well between runs, so that fluctuations from mean behaviour can often be neglected. Where necessary, non-trivial terms are determined by assuming maximum entropy with constraints on known macroscopics. Problems of realistic size are described in compact form and finite population effects are included, often proving to be of fundamental importance. The macroscopics used here are cumulants of an appropriate quantity within the population and the mean correlation (Hamming distance) within the population. Including the correlation as an explicit macroscopic provides a significant improvement over the original formulation. The formalism is applied to a number of simple optimization problems in order to determine its predictive power and to gain insight into GA dynamics. Problems which are most amenable to analysis come from the class where alleles within the genotype contribute additively to the phenotype. This class can be treated with some generality, including problems with inhomogeneous contributions from each site, non-linear or noisy fitness measures, simple diploid representations and temporally varying fitness. The results can also be applied to a simple learning problem, generalization in a binary perceptron, and a limit is identified for which the optimal training batch size can be determined for this problem. The theory is compared to averaged results from a real GA in each case, showing excellent agreement if the maximum entropy principle holds. Some situations where this approximation brakes down are identified. In order to fully test the formalism, an attempt is made on the strong sc np-hard problem of storing random patterns in a binary perceptron. Here, the relationship between the genotype and phenotype (training error) is strongly non-linear. Mutation is modelled under the assumption that perceptron configurations are typical of perceptrons with a given training error. Unfortunately, this assumption does not provide a good approximation in general. It is conjectured that perceptron configurations would have to be constrained by other statistics in order to accurately model mutation for this problem. Issues arising from this study are discussed in conclusion and some possible areas of further research are outlined.

Noisy fitness evaluation in genetic algorithms and the dynamics of learning

A theoretical model is presented which describes selection in a genetic algorithm (GA) under a stochastic fitness measure and correctly accounts for finite population effects. Although this model describes a number of selection schemes, we only consider Boltzmann selection in detail here as results for this form of selection are particularly transparent when fitness is corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. Finite population effects are shown to be of fundamental importance in this case, as the noise has no effect in the infinite population limit. In the limit of weak selection we show how the effects of any Gaussian noise can be removed by increasing the population size appropriately. The theory is tested on two closely related problems: the one-max problem corrupted by Gaussian noise and generalization in a perceptron with binary weights. The averaged dynamics can be accurately modelled for both problems using a formalism which describes the dynamics of the GA using methods from statistical mechanics. The second problem is a simple example of a learning problem and by considering this problem we show how the accurate characterization of noise in the fitness evaluation may be relevant in machine learning. The training error (negative fitness) is the number of misclassified training examples in a batch and can be considered as a noisy version of the generalization error if an independent batch is used for each evaluation. The noise is due to the finite batch size and in the limit of large problem size and weak selection we show how the effect of this noise can be removed by increasing the population size. This allows the optimal batch size to be determined, which minimizes computation time as well as the total number of training examples required.

Genetic algorithms for discovery of matrix multiplication methods

We present a parallel genetic algorithm for nding matrix multiplication algo-rithms. For 3 x 3 matrices our genetic algorithm successfully discovered algo-rithms requiring 23 multiplications, which are equivalent to the currently best known human-developed algorithms. We also studied the cases with less mul-tiplications and evaluated the suitability of the methods discovered. Although our evolutionary method did not reach the theoretical lower bound it led to an approximate solution for 22 multiplications.

Using genetic algorithms for improved discrete sequence prediction

A statistics-based method using genetic algorithms for predicting discrete sequences is presented. The prediction of the next value is based upon a fixed number of previous values and the statistics offered by the training data. According to the statistics, in similar past cases different values occurred next. If these values are considered with the appropriate weights, the forecast is successful. Weights are generated by genetic algorithms.

Online Genetic Algorithms

This paper present a technique based on genetic algorithms for generating online adaptive services. Online adaptive systems provide flexible services to a mass of clients/users for maximising some system goals, they dynamically adapt the form and the content of the issued services while the population of clients evolve over time. The idea of online genetic algorithms (online GAs) is to use the online clients response behaviour as a fitness function in order to produce the next generation of services. The principle implemented in online GAs, “the application environment is the fitness”, allow modelling highly evolutionary domains where both services providers and clients change and evolve over time. The flexibility and the adaptive behaviour of this approach seems to be very relevant and promising for applications characterised by highly dynamical features such as in the web domain (online newspapers, e- markets, websites and advertising engines). Nevertheless the proposed technique has a more general aim for application environments characterised by a massive number of anonymous clients/users which require personalised services, such as in the case of many new IT applications.

Implementation of Genetic Algorithms for Transit Points Arrangement

The problem of transit points arrangement is presented in the paper. This issue is connected with accuracy of tariff distance calculation and it is the urgent problem at present. Was showed that standard method of tariff distance discovering is not optimal. The Genetic Algorithms are used in optimization problem resolution. The UML application class diagram and class content are showed. In the end the example of transit points arrangement is represented.

Internet computing with distributed software agent

The phenomenonal growth of the Internet has connected us to a vast amount of computation and information resources around the world. However, making use of these resources is difficult due to the unparalleled massiveness, high communication latency, share-nothing architecture and unreliable connection of the Internet. In this dissertation, we present a distributed software agent approach, which brings a new distributed problem-solving paradigm to the Internet computing researches with enhanced client-server scheme, inherent scalability and heterogeneity. Our study discusses the role of a distributed software agent in Internet computing and classifies it into three major categories by the objects it interacts with: computation agent, information agent and interface agent. The discussion of the problem domain and the deployment of the computation agent and the information agent are presented with the analysis, design and implementation of the experimental systems in high performance Internet computing and in scalable Web searching. ^ In the computation agent study, high performance Internet computing can be achieved with our proposed Java massive computation agent (JAM) model. We analyzed the JAM computing scheme and built a brutal force cipher text decryption prototype. In the information agent study, we discuss the scalability problem of the existing Web search engines and designed the approach of Web searching with distributed collaborative index agent. This approach can be used for constructing a more accurate, reusable and scalable solution to deal with the growth of the Web and of the information on the Web. ^ Our research reveals that with the deployment of the distributed software agent in Internet computing, we can have a more cost effective approach to make better use of the gigantic scale network of computation and information resources on the Internet. The case studies in our research show that we are now able to solve many practically hard or previously unsolvable problems caused by the inherent difficulties of Internet computing. ^

Optimizing the radiation pattern of smart antennas using genetic algorithms

This work is directed towards optimizing the radiation pattern of smart antennas using genetic algorithms. The structure of the smart antennas based on Space Division Multiple Access (SDMA) is proposed. It is composed of adaptive antennas, each of which has adjustable weight elements for amplitudes and phases of signals. The corresponding radiation pattern formula available for the utilization of numerical optimization techniques is deduced. Genetic algorithms are applied to search the best phase-amplitude weights or phase-only weights with which the optimal radiation pattern can be achieved. ^ One highlight of this work is the proposed optimal radiation pattern concept and its implementation by genetic algorithms. The results show that genetic algorithms are effective for the true Signal-Interference-Ratio (SIR) design of smart antennas. This means that not only nulls can be put in the directions of the interfering signals but also simultaneously main lobes can be formed in the directions of the desired signals. The optimal radiation pattern of a smart antenna possessing SDMA ability has been achieved. ^ The second highlight is on the weight search by genetic algorithms for the optimal radiation pattern design of antennas having more than one interfering signal. The regular criterion for determining which chromosome should be kept for the next step iteration is modified so as to improve the performance of the genetic algorithm iteration. The results show that the modified criterion can speed up and guarantee the iteration to be convergent. ^ In addition, the comparison between phase-amplitude perturbations and phase-only perturbations for the radiation pattern design of smart antennas are carried out. The effects of parameters used by the genetic algorithm on the optimal radiation pattern design are investigated. Valuable results are obtained. ^

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal control with transit signal priority at isolated intersections using parallel genetic algorithms

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal timing is one of the most complex problems in traffic control systems. This dissertation presents a new method that applies the parallel genetic algorithm (PGA) to optimize adaptive traffic signal control in the presence of transit signal priority (TSP). The method can optimize the phase plan, cycle length, and green splits at isolated intersections with consideration for the performance of both the transit and the general vehicles. Unlike the simple genetic algorithm (GA), PGA can provide better and faster solutions needed for real-time optimization of adaptive traffic signal control. ^ An important component in the proposed method involves the development of a microscopic delay estimation model that was designed specifically to optimize adaptive traffic signal with TSP. Macroscopic delay models such as the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) delay model are unable to accurately consider the effect of phase combination and phase sequence in delay calculations. In addition, because the number of phases and the phase sequence of adaptive traffic signal may vary from cycle to cycle, the phase splits cannot be optimized when the phase sequence is also a decision variable. A "flex-phase" concept was introduced in the proposed microscopic delay estimation model to overcome these limitations. ^ The performance of PGA was first evaluated against the simple GA. The results show that PGA achieved both faster convergence and lower delay for both under- or over-saturated traffic conditions. A VISSIM simulation testbed was then developed to evaluate the performance of the proposed PGA-based adaptive traffic signal control with TSP. The simulation results show that the PGA-based optimizer for adaptive TSP outperformed the fully actuated NEMA control in all test cases. The results also show that the PGA-based optimizer was able to produce TSP timing plans that benefit the transit vehicles while minimizing the impact of TSP on the general vehicles. The VISSIM testbed developed in this research provides a powerful tool to design and evaluate different TSP strategies under both actuated and adaptive signal control. ^

Genetic algorithms and investment strategies: A global perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: (1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, (2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, (3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and (4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.