Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the gulf region.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.

Advanced MRI unravels the nature of tissue alterations in early multiple sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: In patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides only limited insights into the nature of brain damage with modest clinic-radiological correlation. In this study, we applied recent advances in MRI techniques to study brain microstructural alterations in early relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with minor deficits. Further, we investigated the potential use of advanced MRI to predict functional performances in these patients. METHODS: Brain relaxometry (T1, T2, T2*) and magnetization transfer MRI were performed at 3T in 36 RRMS patients and 18 healthy controls (HC). Multicontrast analysis was used to assess for microstructural alterations in normal-appearing (NA) tissue and lesions. A generalized linear model was computed to predict clinical performance in patients using multicontrast MRI data, conventional MRI measures as well as demographic and behavioral data as covariates. RESULTS: Quantitative T2 and T2* relaxometry were significantly increased in temporal normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) of patients compared to HC, indicating subtle microedema (P = 0.03 and 0.004). Furthermore, significant T1 and magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) variations in lesions (mean T1 z-score: 4.42 and mean MTR z-score: -4.09) suggested substantial tissue loss. Combinations of multicontrast and conventional MRI data significantly predicted cognitive fatigue (P = 0.01, Adj-R (2) = 0.4), attention (P = 0.0005, Adj-R (2) = 0.6), and disability (P = 0.03, Adj-R (2) = 0.4). CONCLUSION: Advanced MRI techniques at 3T, unraveled the nature of brain tissue damage in early MS and substantially improved clinical-radiological correlations in patients with minor deficits, as compared to conventional measures of disease.

Good genes and good luck: Ammonoid diversity and the end-Permian mass extinction

The end-Permian mass extinction removed more than 80% of marine genera. Ammonoid cephalopods were among the organisms most affected by this crisis. The analysis of a global diversity data set of ammonoid genera covering about 106 million years centered on the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) shows that Triassic ammonoids actually reached levels of diversity higher than in the Permian less than 2 million years after the PTB. The data favor a hierarchical rather than logistic model of diversification coupled with a niche incumbency hypothesis. This explosive and nondelayed diversification contrasts with the slow and delayed character of the Triassic biotic recovery as currently illustrated for other, mainly benthic groups such as bivalves and gastropods.

An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

Cluster glasses of ultrasoft particles

We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations results for dense fluids of ultrasoft, fully penetrable particles. These are a binary mixture and a polydisperse system of particles interacting via the generalized exponential model, which is known to yield cluster crystal phases for the corresponding monodisperse systems. Because of the dispersity in the particle size, the systems investigated in this work do not crystallize and form disordered cluster phases. The clusteringtransition appears as a smooth crossover to a regime in which particles are mostly located in clusters, isolated particles being infrequent. The analysis of the internal cluster structure reveals microsegregation of the big and small particles, with a strong homo-coordination in the binary mixture. Upon further lowering the temperature below the clusteringtransition, the motion of the clusters" centers-of-mass slows down dramatically, giving way to a cluster glass transition. In the cluster glass, the diffusivities remain finite and display an activated temperature dependence, indicating that relaxation in the cluster glass occurs via particle hopping in a nearly arrested matrix of clusters. Finally we discuss the influence of the microscopic dynamics on the transport properties by comparing the MD results with Monte Carlo simulations.

Improvement in gross motor performance between 3 and 5 years of age.

This study examined gross motor performance of 101 typically developing children between 3 and 5 years of age (48 boys, 53 girls, M age = 3.9 yr., SD = 0.5). All children performed 7 different gross motor tasks which were rated on a 5-point scale. Age and sex were assessed by an ordinal-logistic model, and odds ratios were calculated for each task using age and sex as covariates. For standing on one leg, walking on a beam, hopping on one leg, running, and taking stairs, statistically significant age differences were found, while for rising and jumping down, none were apparent. Mean motor performance did not differ between boys and girls on the tasks. The older the children were, the better they performed on the tasks.

Factors associated with 56-day non-return rate in dairy cattle

The objective of this work was to identify factors associated with the 56-day non-return rate (56-NRR) in dairy herds in the Galician region, Spain, and to estimate it for individual Holstein bulls. The experiment was carried out in herds originated from North-West Spain, from September 2008 to August 2009. Data of the 76,440 first inseminations performed during this period were gathered. Candidate factors were tested for their association with the 56-NRR by using a logistic model (binomial). Afterwards, 37 sires with a minimum of 150 first performed inseminations were individually evaluated. Logistic models were also estimated for each bull, and predicted individual 56-NRR rate values were calculated as a solution for the model parameters. Logistic regression found four major factors associated with 56-NRR in lactating cows: age at insemination, days from calving to insemination, milk production level at the time of insemination, and herd size. First-service conception rate, when a particular sire was used, was higher for heifers (0.71) than for lactating cows (0.52). Non-return rates were highly variable among bulls. Asignificant part of the herd-level variation of 56-NRR of Holstein cattle seems attributable to the service sire. High correlation level between observed and predicted 56-NRR was found.

Optical evidence for the proximity to a spin-density-wave metallic state in Na0.7CoO2

We present the optical properties of Na0.7CoO2 single crystals, measured over a broad spectral range as a function of temperature (T). The capability to cover the energy range from the far-infrared up to the ultraviolet allows us to perform reliable Kramers-Kronig transformation, in order to obtain the absorption spectrum (i.e., the complex optical conductivity). To the complex optical conductivity we apply the generalized Drude model, extracting the frequency dependence of the scattering rate (Gamma) and effective mass (m*) of the itinerant charge carriers. We find that Gamma(omega) at low temperatures and for similar to omega. This suggests that Na0.7CoO2 is at the verge of a spin-density-wave metallic phase.

Mobile Communications within the European Union: The Role of Location in the Evolution and Forecasting of the Diffusion Process

In the European Union, the importance of mobile communications was realized early on. The process of mobile communications becoming ubiquitous has taken time, as the innovation of mobile communications diffused into the society. The aim of this study is to find out how the evolution and spatial patterns of the diffusion of mobile communications within the European Union could be taken into account in forecasting the diffusion process. There is relatively lot of research of innovation diffusion on the individual (micro) andthe country (macro) level, if compared to the territorial level. Territorial orspatial diffusion refers either to the intra-country or inter-country diffusionof an innovation. In both settings, the dif- fusion of a technological innovation has gained scarce attention. This study adds knowledge of the diffusion between countries, focusing especially on the role of location in this process. The main findings of the study are the following: The penetration rates of the European Union member countries have become more even in the period of observation, from the year 1981 to 2000. The common digital GSM system seems to have hastened this process. As to the role of location in the diffusion process, neighboring countries have had similar diffusion processes. They can be grouped into three, the Nordic countries, the central and southern European countries, and the remote southern European countries. The neighborhood effect is also domi- nating in thegravity model which is used for modeling the adoption timing of the countries. The subsequent diffusion within a country, measured by the logistic model in Finland, is af- fected positively by its economic situation, and it seems to level off at some 92 %. Considering the launch of future mobile communications systemsusing a common standard should implicate an equal development between the countries. The launching time should be carefully selected as the diffusion is probably delayed in economic downturns. The location of a country, measured by distance, can be used in forecasting the adoption and diffusion. Fi- nally, the result of penetration rates becoming more even implies that in a relatively homoge- nous set of countries, such as the European Union member countries, the estimated final pene- tration of a single country can be used for approximating the penetration of the others. The estimated eventual penetration of Finland, some 92 %, should thus also be the eventual level for all the European Union countries and for the European Union as a whole.

A systematic review of the surgical treatment of large incisional hernia.

PURPOSE: Incisional hernia (IH) is one of the most frequent postoperative complications. Of all patients undergoing IH repair, a vast amount have a hernia which can be defined as a large incisional hernia (LIH). The aim of this study is to identify the preferred technique for LIH repair. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed and studies describing patients with IH with a diameter of 10 cm or a surface of 100 cm2 or more were included. Recurrence hazards per year were calculated for all techniques using a generalized linear model. RESULTS: Fifty-five articles were included, containing 3,945 LIH repairs. Mesh reinforced techniques displayed better recurrence rates and hazards than techniques without mesh reinforcement. Of all the mesh techniques, sublay repair, sandwich technique with sublay mesh and aponeuroplasty with intraperitoneal mesh displayed the best results (recurrence rates of <3.6%, recurrence hazard <0.5% per year). Wound complications were frequent and most often seen after complex LIH repair. CONCLUSIONS: The use of mesh during LIH repair displayed the best recurrence rates and hazards. If possible mesh in sublay position should be used in cases of LIH repair.

Cluster glasses of ultrasoft particles

We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations results for dense fluids of ultrasoft, fully penetrable particles. These are a binary mixture and a polydisperse system of particles interacting via the generalized exponential model, which is known to yield cluster crystal phases for the corresponding monodisperse systems. Because of the dispersity in the particle size, the systems investigated in this work do not crystallize and form disordered cluster phases. The clusteringtransition appears as a smooth crossover to a regime in which particles are mostly located in clusters, isolated particles being infrequent. The analysis of the internal cluster structure reveals microsegregation of the big and small particles, with a strong homo-coordination in the binary mixture. Upon further lowering the temperature below the clusteringtransition, the motion of the clusters" centers-of-mass slows down dramatically, giving way to a cluster glass transition. In the cluster glass, the diffusivities remain finite and display an activated temperature dependence, indicating that relaxation in the cluster glass occurs via particle hopping in a nearly arrested matrix of clusters. Finally we discuss the influence of the microscopic dynamics on the transport properties by comparing the MD results with Monte Carlo simulations.

A multi-contrast MRI study of microstructural brain damage in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate pathological mechanisms underlying brain tissue alterations in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) using multi-contrast 3 T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: Forty-two MCI patients and 77 healthy controls (HC) underwent T1/T2* relaxometry as well as Magnetization Transfer (MT) MRI. Between-groups comparisons in MRI metrics were performed using permutation-based tests. Using MRI data, a generalized linear model (GLM) was computed to predict clinical performance and a support-vector machine (SVM) classification was used to classify MCI and HC subjects. RESULTS: Multi-parametric MRI data showed microstructural brain alterations in MCI patients vs HC that might be interpreted as: (i) a broad loss of myelin/cellular proteins and tissue microstructure in the hippocampus (p ≤ 0.01) and global white matter (p < 0.05); and (ii) iron accumulation in the pallidus nucleus (p ≤ 0.05). MRI metrics accurately predicted memory and executive performances in patients (p ≤ 0.005). SVM classification reached an accuracy of 75% to separate MCI and HC, and performed best using both volumes and T1/T2*/MT metrics. CONCLUSION: Multi-contrast MRI appears to be a promising approach to infer pathophysiological mechanisms leading to brain tissue alterations in MCI. Likewise, parametric MRI data provide powerful correlates of cognitive deficits and improve automatic disease classification based on morphometric features.

Factors Affecting the Forecasting Accuracy of Diffusion Models

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tarkastella innovaatioiden leviämismallien ennustetarkkuuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkielmassa ennustettiin logistisella mallilla matkapuhelinliittymien leviämistä kolmessa Euroopan maassa: Suomessa, Ranskassa ja Kreikassa. Teoriaosa keskittyi innovaatioiden leviämisen ennustamiseen leviämismallien avulla. Erityisesti painotettiin mallien ennustuskykyä ja niiden käytettävyyttä eri tilanteissa. Empiirisessä osassa keskityttiin ennustamiseen logistisella leviämismallilla, joka kalibroitiin eri tavoin koostetuilla aikasarjoilla. Näin tehtyjä ennusteita tarkasteltiin tiedon kokoamistasojen vaikutusten selvittämiseksi. Tutkimusasetelma oli empiirinen, mikä sisälsi logistisen leviämismallin ennustetarkkuuden tutkimista otosdatan kokoamistasoa muunnellen. Leviämismalliin syötettävä data voidaan kerätä kuukausittain ja operaattorikohtaisesti vaikuttamatta ennustetarkkuuteen. Dataan on sisällytettävä leviämiskäyrän käännöskohta, eli pitkän aikavälin huippukysyntäpiste.