Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial property performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on "softer' signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the Investment Property Databank Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. January and August have significantly less appraisal changes than other months.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial real estate performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on ‘softer’ signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the IPD Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. More November appraisals change than expected and this suggests that the increased information flows for the December end year appraisals are flowing through into earlier appraisals, especially as client/appraiser draft appraisal meetings for the December appraisals, a regular occurrence in the UK, can occur in November. January illustrates significantly less activity than other months, a seasonal effect after the exertions of the December appraisals.

Commercial real estate return distributions: a review of literature and empirical evidence

This paper review the literature on the distribution of commercial real estate returns. There is growing evidence that the assumption of normality in returns is not safe. Distributions are found to be peaked, fat-tailed and, tentatively, skewed. There is some evidence of compound distributions and non-linearity. Public traded real estate assets (such as property company or REIT shares) behave in a fashion more similar to other common stocks. However, as in equity markets, it would be unwise to assume normality uncritically. Empirical evidence for UK real estate markets is obtained by applying distribution fitting routines to IPD Monthly Index data for the aggregate index and selected sub-sectors. It is clear that normality is rejected in most cases. It is often argued that observed differences in real estate returns are a measurement issue resulting from appraiser behaviour. However, unsmoothing the series does not assist in modelling returns. A large proportion of returns are close to zero. This would be characteristic of a thinly-traded market where new information arrives infrequently. Analysis of quarterly data suggests that, over longer trading periods, return distributions may conform more closely to those found in other asset markets. These results have implications for the formulation and implementation of a multi-asset portfolio allocation strategy.

The role of transfer in language variation and change: Evidence from contact varieties of French

In this Special Issue, the focus is on contact-induced language variation and change in situations of societal bilingualism that involve long-term contact between French and another language. As is well known, when two or more languages are spoken by groups of speakers in the same geographical area, over time, features from one language can be transferred to the other language, especially when the languages in question are unequal in terms of prestige, institutional support and demographic factors. The process that leads to the adoption of such features in the contact languages is generally known as INTERFERENCE or TRANSFER, and these terms are also used to describe the features in question (i.e. the end product of the process of transfer). In this issue we prefer to use the term TRANSFER over the use of the notion INTERFERENCE, as the former has fewer negative connotations than the latter.

Online data processing consent under EU law: a theoretical framework and empirical evidence from the UK

This article analyses the results of an empirical study on the 200 most popular UK-based websites in various sectors of e-commerce services. The study provides empirical evidence on unlawful processing of personal data. It comprises a survey on the methods used to seek and obtain consent to process personal data for direct marketing and advertisement, and a test on the frequency of unsolicited commercial emails (UCE) received by customers as a consequence of their registration and submission of personal information to a website. Part One of the article presents a conceptual and normative account of data protection, with a discussion of the ethical values on which EU data protection law is grounded and an outline of the elements that must be in place to seek and obtain valid consent to process personal data. Part Two discusses the outcomes of the empirical study, which unveils a significant departure between EU legal theory and practice in data protection. Although a wide majority of the websites in the sample (69%) has in place a system to ask separate consent for engaging in marketing activities, it is only 16.2% of them that obtain a consent which is valid under the standards set by EU law. The test with UCE shows that only one out of three websites (30.5%) respects the will of the data subject not to receive commercial communications. It also shows that, when submitting personal data in online transactions, there is a high probability (50%) of incurring in a website that will ignore the refusal of consent and will send UCE. The article concludes that there is severe lack of compliance of UK online service providers with essential requirements of data protection law. In this respect, it suggests that there is inappropriate standard of implementation, information and supervision by the UK authorities, especially in light of the clarifications provided at EU level.

Phonological sensitivity and reading: evidence from precocious readers

This paper reports the results from a study investigating the level of phonological sensitivity, letter knowledge and reading ability of two groups of children between the ages of 5 and 7 years. One group of children were identifies as being fluent readers at the age of 5 years, before they had begun school. These children were paired with a group of children of the same age and vocabulary development but who were not yet reading. The performance of the two groups of children on the tasks measuring phonological sensitivity confirmed the view of Stanovich (1986, 1992) that phonological sensitivity lies on a continuum from shallow to deep. Shallow levels of phonological sensitivity, tapped by rhyming tasks, seem to be necessary for reading to progress whereas deeper levels of sensitivity develop later and have a more reciprocal relationship to the reading process.

Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree–grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure – a response to aridity – in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3/C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree–grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the "woody thickening" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.

Generic strategies and performance: evidence from manufacturing firms

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between business-level strategy and organisational performance and to test the applicability of Porter's generic strategies in explaining differences in the performance of organisations. Design/methodology/approach – The study was focussed on manufacturing firms in the UK belonging to the electrical and mechanical engineering sectors. Data were collected through a postal survey using the survey instrument from 124 organisations and the respondents were all at CEO level. Both objective and subjective measures were used to assess performance. Non-response bias was assessed statistically and it was not found to be a major problem affecting this study. Appropriate measures were taken to ensure that common method variance (CMV) does not affect the results of this study. Statistical tests indicated that CMV problem does not affect the results of this study. Findings – The results of this study indicate that firms adopting one of the strategies, namely cost-leadership or differentiation, perform better than “stuck-in-the-middle” firms which do not have a dominant strategic orientation. The integrated strategy group has lower performance compared with cost-leaders and differentiators in terms of financial performance measures. This provides support for Porter's view that combination strategies are unlikely to be effective in organisations. However, the cost-leadership and differentiation strategies were not strongly correlated with the financial performance measures indicating the limitations of Porter's generic strategies in explaining performance heterogeneity in organisations. Originality/value – This study makes an important contribution to the literature by identifying some of the gaps in the literature through a systematic literature review and addressing those gaps.

RuII(α-diimine) or RuIII(α-diimine·–)? Structural, spectroscopic, and theoretical evidence for the stabilization of a prominent metal-to-Ligand charge- transfer excited-state configuration in the ground state

The new compounds [Ru(R-DAB)(acac)2] (R-DAB = 1,4-diorganyl- 1,4-diazabuta-1,3-diene; R = tert-butyl, 4-methoxyphenyl, 2,6-dimethylphenyl; acac– = 2,4-pentanedionate) exhibit intrachelate ring bond lengths 1.297and 1.382and in the visible region and by DFT calculations. Oxidation of the compounds occurs mainly at the R-DAB·– radical ligand to produce UV/Vis/NIR and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroelectrochemically detectable RuIII species, whereas the reduction proceeds less reversibly and yields predominantly (R-DAB)-ligand-based spin for the 4-methoxyphenyl derivative, measured at low temperature. The results are discussed with respect to metal-to-ligand chargetransfer (MLCT) excited states of conventional (α-diimine)- ruthenium(II) complexes and in view of other (α-diimine)- metal complexes with ambiguous oxidation-state assignments.

The role of location in knowledge creation and diffusion: evidence of centripetal and centrifugal forces in the City of London financial services agglomeration

In this paper we report on a major empirical study of centripetal and centrifugal forces in the City of London financial services agglomeration. The study sheds light on (1) the manner and magnitude of firm interaction in the agglomeration; (2) the characteristics of the agglomeration that aid the competitiveness of incumbent firms; and (3) the problems associated with agglomeration. In addressing these issues, we use the data to (1) test emerging theory that explains the high productivity and innovation of agglomerations in terms of their ability to generate and diffuse knowledge; and (2) evaluate the ‘end of geography’ thesis.

Structural constraints on pronoun binding and coreference: evidence from eye movements during reading

A number of recent studies have investigated how syntactic and non-syntactic constraints combine to cue memory retrieval during anaphora resolution. In this paper we investigate how syntactic constraints and gender congruence interact to guide memory retrieval during the resolution of subject pronouns. Subject pronouns are always technically ambiguous, and the application of syntactic constraints on their interpretation depends on properties of the antecedent that is to be retrieved. While pronouns can freely corefer with non-quantified referential antecedents, linking a pronoun to a quantified antecedent is only possible in certain syntactic configurations via variable binding. We report the results from a judgment task and three online reading comprehension experiments investigating pronoun resolution with quantified and non-quantified antecedents. Results from both the judgment task and participants' eye movements during reading indicate that comprehenders freely allow pronouns to corefer with non-quantified antecedents, but that retrieval of quantified antecedents is restricted to specific syntactic environments. We interpret our findings as indicating that syntactic constraints constitute highly weighted cues to memory retrieval during anaphora resolution.

Common components of risk and uncertainty attitudes across contexts and domains: Evidence from 30 countries

Attitudes towards risk and uncertainty have been indicated to be highly context-dependent, and to be sensitive to the measurement technique employed. We present data collected in controlled experiments with 2,939 subjects in 30 countries measuring risk and uncertainty attitudes through incentivized measures as well as survey questions. Our data show clearly that measures correlate not only within decision contexts or measurement methods, but also across contexts and methods. This points to the existence of one underlying “risk preference”, which influences attitudes independently of the measurement method or choice domain. We furthermore find that answers to a general and a financial survey question correlate with incentivized lottery choices in most countries. Incentivized and survey measures also correlate significantly between countries. This opens the possibility to conduct cultural comparisons on risk attitudes using survey instruments.