A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Soil CO2 emission estimated by different interpolation techniques

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Image registration and image interpolation in volume rendering of cross sections

We outline a method for registration of images of cross sections using the concepts of The Generalized Hough Transform (GHT). The approach may be useful in situations where automation should be a concern. To overcome known problems of noise of traditional GHT we have implemented a slight modified version of the basic algorithm. The modification consists of eliminating points of no interest in the process before the application of the accumulation step of the algorithm. This procedure minimizes the amount of accumulation points while reducing the probability of appearing of spurious peaks. Also, we apply image warping techniques to interpolate images among cross sections. This is needed where the distance of samples between sections is too large. Then it is suggested that the step of registration with GHT can help the interpolation automation by simplifying the correspondence between points of images. Some results are shown.

GDP 4.0 transfer to SGP 3.0 for SCIAMACHY no2 column processing: Verification with SDOAS / GDOAS prototype algorithms and delta-validation with NDACC / UV-visible network data

Until mid 2006, SCIAMACHY data processors for the operational retrieval of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) column data were based on the historical version 2 of the GOME Data Processor (GDP). On top of known problems inherent to GDP 2, ground-based validations of SCIAMACHY NO2 data revealed issues specific to SCIAMACHY, like a large cloud-dependent offset occurring at Northern latitudes. In 2006, the GDOAS prototype algorithm of the improved GDP version 4 was transferred to the off-line SCIAMACHY Ground Processor (SGP) version 3.0. In parallel, the calibration of SCIAMACHY radiometric data was upgraded. Before operational switch-on of SGP 3.0 and public release of upgraded SCIAMACHY NO2 data, we have investigated the accuracy of the algorithm transfer: (a) by checking the consistency of SGP 3.0 with prototype algorithms; and (b) by comparing SGP 3.0 NO2 data with ground-based observations reported by the WMO/GAW NDACC network of UV-visible DOAS/SAOZ spectrometers. This delta-validation study concludes that SGP 3.0 is a significant improvement with respect to the previous processor IPF 5.04. For three particular SCIAMACHY states, the study reveals unexplained features in the slant columns and air mass factors, although the quantitative impact on SGP 3.0 vertical columns is not significant.

An automatic methodology for obtaining optimum shape factors for the radial point interpolation method

In this letter, a methodology is proposed for automatically (and locally) obtaining the shape factor c for the Gaussian basis functions, for each support domain, in order to increase numerical precision and mainly to avoid matrix inversion impossibilities. The concept of calibration function is introduced, which is used for obtaining c. The methodology developed was applied for a 2-D numerical experiment, which results are compared to analytical solution. This comparison revels that the results associated to the developed methodology are very close to the analytical solution for the entire bandwidth of the excitation pulse. The proposed methodology is called in this work Local Shape Factor Calibration Method (LSFCM).

Pesquisa em Educação Ambiental no contexto escolar: considerações a partir do GDP

O artigo apresenta os resultados das atividades desenvolvidas no Grupo de Discussão de Pesquisa “Educação Ambiental no Contexto Escolar” durante o VI Encontro de Pesquisa em Educação Ambiental (EPEA). As atividades foram propostas a partir de reflexões oriundas de pesquisadores que abordam a EA como campo de conhecimento. Seis textos apresentados no evento foram discutidos pelos participantes do GDP com base em questões norteadoras. Os resultados dão indícios da importância de se constituir um grupo de pesquisa que acompanhe esse GDP nas futuras edições do EPEA e que fomente políticas e diretrizes curriculares de EA.

Electromagnetic gauge field interpolation between the instant form and the front form of the Hamiltonian dynamics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Interpolation estimate for a finite-element space with embedded discontinuities

We consider a recently proposed finite-element space that consists of piecewise affine functions with discontinuities across a smooth given interface Γ (a curve in two dimensions, a surface in three dimensions). Contrary to existing extended finite element methodologies, the space is a variant of the standard conforming Formula space that can be implemented element by element. Further, it neither introduces new unknowns nor deteriorates the sparsity structure. It is proved that, for u arbitrary in Formula, the interpolant Formula defined by this new space satisfies Graphic where h is the mesh size, Formula is the domain, Formula, Formula, Formula and standard notation has been adopted for the function spaces. This result proves the good approximation properties of the finite-element space as compared to any space consisting of functions that are continuous across Γ, which would yield an error in the Formula-norm of order Graphic. These properties make this space especially attractive for approximating the pressure in problems with surface tension or other immersed interfaces that lead to discontinuities in the pressure field. Furthermore, the result still holds for interfaces that end within the domain, as happens for example in cracked domains.