Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Prediction of near field overpressure from quarry blasting

This paper investigates the propagation of airblast or pressure waves in air produced by bench blasting (i.e. detonation of the explosive in a row of blastholes, breaking the burden of rock towards the free vertical face of the block). Peak overpressure is calculated as a function of blasting parameters (explosive mass per delay and velocity at which the detonation sequence proceeds along the bench) and the polar coordinates of the position of interest (distance to the source and azimuth with respect to the free face). The model has been fitted to empirical data using linear least squares. The data set is composed of 122 airblast records monitored at distances less than 400 m in 41 production blasts carried out in two quarries. The model is statistically significant and has a determination coefficient of 0.87. The formula is validated from 12 airblast measurements gathered in five additional blasts.

Scour prediction and scour protections in offshore wind farms

This paper is the result of research whose main objective is to analyse different methods used for the prediction of maximum scour depth and scour extension, and for the design of scour protections in offshore wind farms located in shallow water, using medium and large diameter monopile foundations. Physical agents such as waves, currents and wind play a major role in the design of structures like offshore farms. As a result, the study has highlighted the need for introducing experience backed climate monomials such as the dimensionless wave height parameter (H0) and proposes the use of formulations that can express the extent of scour protections as a function of waves in transitional waters.

A unified framework for linear function approximation of value functions in stochastic control

This paper contributes with a unified formulation that merges previ- ous analysis on the prediction of the performance ( value function ) of certain sequence of actions ( policy ) when an agent operates a Markov decision process with large state-space. When the states are represented by features and the value function is linearly approxi- mated, our analysis reveals a new relationship between two common cost functions used to obtain the optimal approximation. In addition, this analysis allows us to propose an efficient adaptive algorithm that provides an unbiased linear estimate. The performance of the pro- posed algorithm is illustrated by simulation, showing competitive results when compared with the state-of-the-art solutions.

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

Merit function for the evaluation of color uniformity in the far field of LED spot lights

The scope of the present paper is the derivation of a merit function which predicts the visual perception of LED spot lights. The color uniformity level Usl is described by a linear regression function of the spatial color distribution in the far field. Hereby, the function is derived from four basic functions. They describe the color uniformity of spot lights through different features. The result is a reliable prediction for the perceived color uniformity in spot lights. A human factor experiment was performed to evaluate the visual preferences for colors and patterns. A perceived rank order was derived from the subjects’ answers and compared with the four basic functions. The correlation between the perceived rank order and the basic functions was calculated resulting in the definition of the merit function Usl. The application of this function is shown by a comparison of visual evaluations and measurements of LED retrofit spot lamps. The results enable a prediction of color uniformity levels of simulations and measurements concerning the visual perception. The function provides a possibility to evaluate the far field of spot lights without individual subjective judgment. © (2014) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.

Prediction of hidden multiferroic order in graphene zigzag ribbons

An electronic phase with coexisting magnetic and ferroelectric order is predicted for graphene ribbons with zigzag edges. The electronic structure of the system is described with a mean-field Hubbard model that yields results very similar to those of density functional calculations. Without further approximations, the mean-field theory is recasted in terms of a BCS wave function for electron-hole pairs in the edge bands. The BCS coherence present in each spin channel is related to spin-resolved electric polarization. Although the total electric polarization vanishes, due to an internal phase locking of the BCS state, strong magnetoelectric effects are expected in this system. The formulation naturally accounts for the two gaps in the quasiparticle spectrun, Δ0 and Δ1, and relates them to the intraband and interband self-energies.

Chloride Penetration Prediction in Concrete through an Empirical Model Based on Constant Flux Diffusion

An empirical model based on constant flux is presented for chloride transport through concrete in atmospherical exposure conditions. A continuous supply of chlorides is assumed as a constant mass flux at the exposed concrete surface. The model is applied to experimental chloride profiles obtained from a real marine structure, and results are compared with the classical error-function model. The proposed model shows some advantages. It yields a better predictive capacity than the classical error-function model. The previously observed chloride surface concentration increases are compatible with the proposed model. Nevertheless, the predictive capacity of the model can fail if the concrete microstructure changes with time. The model seems to be appropriate for well-maturated concretes exposed to a marine environment in atmospherical conditions.

Toward better outcomes with tacrolimus therapy: Population pharmacokinetics and individualized dosage prediction in adult liver transplantation

Patient outcomes in transplantation would improve if dosing of immunosuppressive agents was individualized. The aim of this study is to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of tacrolimus in adult liver transplant recipients and test this model in individualizing therapy. Population analysis was performed on data from 68 patients. Estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F) using the nonlinear mixed effects model program (NONMEM). Factors screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, sex, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, postoperative day, days of therapy, liver function test results, creatinine clearance, hematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and interacting drugs. The predictive performance of the developed model was evaluated through Bayesian forecasting in an independent cohort of 36 patients. No linear correlation existed between tacrolimus dosage and trough concentration (r(2) = 0.005). Mean individual Bayesian estimates for CL/F and V/F were 26.5 8.2 (SD) L/hr and 399 +/- 185 L, respectively. CL/F was greater in patients with normal liver function. V/F increased with patient weight. CL/F decreased with increasing hematocrit. Based on the derived model, a 70-kg patient with an aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level less than 70 U/L would require a tacrolimus dose of 4.7 mg twice daily to achieve a steady-state trough concentration of 10 ng/mL. A 50-kg patient with an AST level greater than 70 U/L would require a dose of 2.6 mg. Marked interindividual variability (43% to 93%) and residual random error (3.3 ng/mL) were observed. Predictions made using the final model were reasonably nonbiased (0.56 ng/mL), but imprecise (4.8 ng/mL). Pharmacokinetic information obtained will assist in tacrolimus dosing; however, further investigation into reasons for the pharmacokinetic variability of tacrolimus is required.

Improved slope adjustment functions for soil erosion prediction

Numerous studies in the last 60 years have investigated the relationship between land slope and soil erosion rates. However, relatively few of these have investigated slope gradient responses: ( a) for steep slopes, (b) for specific erosion processes, and ( c) as a function of soil properties. Simulated rainfall was applied in the laboratory on 16 soils and 16 overburdens at 100 mm/h to 3 replicates of unconsolidated flume plots 3 m long by 0.8 m wide and 0.15 m deep at slopes of 20, 5, 10, 15, and 30% slope in that order. Sediment delivery at each slope was measured to determine the relationship between slope steepness and erosion rate. Data from this study were evaluated alongside data and existing slope adjustment functions from more than 55 other studies from the literature. Data and the literature strongly support a logistic slope adjustment function of the form S = A + B/[1 + exp (C - D sin theta)] where S is the slope adjustment factor and A, B, C, and D are coefficients that depend on the dominant detachment and transport processes. Average coefficient values when interill-only processes are active are A - 1.50, B 6.51, C 0.94, and D 5.30 (r(2) = 0.99). When rill erosion is also potentially active, the average slope response is greater and coefficient values are A - 1.12, B 16.05, C 2.61, and D 8.32 (r(2) = 0.93). The interill-only function predicts increases in sediment delivery rates from 5 to 30% slope that are approximately double the predictions based on existing published interill functions. The rill + interill function is similar to a previously reported value. The above relationships represent a mean slope response for all soils, yet the response of individual soils varied substantially from a 2.5-fold to a 50-fold increase over the range of slopes studied. The magnitude of the slope response was found to be inversely related ( log - log linear) to the dispersed silt and clay content of the soil, and 3 slope adjustment equations are proposed that provide a better estimate of slope response when this soil property is known. Evaluation of the slope adjustment equations proposed in this paper using independent datasets showed that the new equations can improve soil erosion predictions.

Quantitative myocardial contrast echocardiography for prediction of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction flow in acute myocardial infarction

Clinical evaluation of arterial potency in acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is unreliable. We sought to identify infarction and predict infarct-related artery potency measured by the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score with qualitative and quantitative intravenous myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE). Thirty-four patients with suspected STEMI underwent MCE before emergency angiography and planned angioplasty. MCE was performed with harmonic imaging and variable triggering intervals during intravenous administration of Optison. Myocardial perfusion was quantified offline, fitting an exponential function to contrast intensity at various pulsing intervals. Plateau myocardial contrast intensity (A), rate of rise (beta), and myocardial flow (Q = A x beta) were assessed in 6 segments. Qualitative assessment of perfusion defects was sensitive for the diagnosis of infarction (sensitivity 93%) and did not differ between anterior and inferior infarctions. However, qualitative assessment had only moderate specificity (50%), and perfusion defects were unrelated to TIMI flow. In patients with STEMI, quantitatively derived myocardial blood flow Q (A x beta) was significantly lower in territories subtended by an artery with impaired (TIMI 0 to 2) flow than those territories supplied by a reperfused artery with TIMI 3 flow (10.2 +/- 9.1 vs 44.3 +/- 50.4, p = 0.03). Quantitative flow was also lower in segments with impaired flow in the subtending artery compared with normal patients with TIMI 3 flow (42.8 +/- 36.6, p = 0.006) and all segments with TIMI 3 flow (35.3 +/- 32.9, p = 0.018). An receiver-operator characteristic curve derived cut-off Q value of

Wurst: a protein threading server with a structural scoring function, sequence profiles and optimized substitution matrices

Wurst is a protein threading program with an emphasis on high quality sequence to structure alignments (http://www.zbh.uni-hamburg.de/wurst). Submitted sequences are aligned to each of about 3000 templates with a conventional dynamic programming algorithm, but using a score function with sophisticated structure and sequence terms. The structure terms are a log-odds probability of sequence to structure fragment compatibility, obtained from a Bayesian classification procedure. A simplex optimization was used to optimize the sequence-based terms for the goal of alignment and model quality and to balance the sequence and structural contributions against each other. Both sequence and structural terms operate with sequence profiles.

Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.