A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.

Devising a scenographic approach in Jonzi D's Hip Hop theatre

Jonzi D, one of the leading Hip Hop voices in the UK, creates contemporary theatrical works that merge dance, street art, original scored music and contemporary rap poetry, to create theatrical events that expand a thriving sense of a Hip Hop nation with citizens in the UK, throughout southern Africa and the rest of the world. In recent years Hip Hop has evolved as a performance genre in and of itself that not only borrows from other forms but vitally now contributes back to the body of contemporary practice in the performing arts. As part of this work Jonzi’s company Jonzi D Productions is committed to creating and touring original Hip Hop theatre that promotes the continuing development and awareness of a nation with its own language, culture and currency that exists without borders. Through the deployment of a universal voice from the local streets of Johannesburg and the East End of London, Jonzi D creates a form of highly energized performance that elevates Hip Hop as great democratiser between the highly developed global and under resourced local in the world. It is the staging of this democratised and technologised future (and present), that poses the greatest challenge for the scenographer working with Jonzi and his company, and the associated deprogramming and translation of the artists particular filmic vision to the stage, that this discussion will explore. This paper interrogates not only how a scenographic strategy can support the existence of this work but also how the scenographer as outsider can enter and influence this nation.

Teaching the economic way of thinking : a new approach to teaching introductory economics in a business degree

In teaching introductory economics there has been a tendency to put a lot of emphasis on imparting abstract models and technical skills to students (Stilwell, 2005; Voss, Blais, Greens, & Ahwesh, 1986). This model building approach has the merit of preparing the grounding for students 10 pursue further studies in economics. However, in a business degree with only a small proportion of students majoring in economics, such an approach tend to alienate the majority of students transiting from high school in to university. Surveys in Europe and Australia found that students complained about the lack of relevance of economics courses to the real world and the over-reliance of abstract mathematical modelling (Kirman, 2001; Lewis and Norris, 1997; Siegfried & Round, 2000). BSB112 Economics 1 is one of the eight faculty core units in the Faculty of Business at QUT, with over 1000 students in each semester. In semester I 2008, a new approach to teaching this unit was designed aiming to achieve three inter-related objectives: (1) to provide business students with a first insight into economic thinking and language, (2) to integrate economic analysis with current Australian social, environmental and political issues, and (3) to cater for students with a wide range of academic needs. Strategies used to achieve these objectives included writing up a new text which departs from traditional economics textbooks in important ways, integrating students' cultures in teaching and learning activities, and devising a new assessment format to encourage development of research skills and applications rather than reproduction of factual knowledge. This paper will document the strategies used in this teaching innovation, present quantitative and qualitative evidence to evaluate this new approach and suggest ways of further improvement.

Experimental evaluation of position control methods for hydraulic systems

Presents a unified and systematic assessment of ten position control strategies for a hydraulic servo system with single-ended cylinder driven by a proportional directional control valve. We aim at identifying those methods that achieve better tracking, have a low sensitivity to system uncertainties, and offer a good balance between development effort and end results. A formal approach for solving this problem relies on several practical metrics, which is introduced herein. Their choice is important, as the comparison results between controllers can vary significantly, depending on the selected criterion. Apart from the quantitative assessment, we also raise aspects which are difficult to quantify, but which must stay in attention when considering the position control problem for this class of hydraulic servo systems.

An adaptive local meshfree updated Lagrangian approach for large deformation analysis of metal forming

The large deformation analysis is one of major challenges in numerical modelling and simulation of metal forming. Because no mesh is used, the meshfree methods show good potential for the large deformation analysis. In this paper, a local meshfree formulation, based on the local weak-forms and the updated Lagrangian (UL) approach, is developed for the large deformation analysis. To fully employ the advantages of meshfree methods, a simple and effective adaptive technique is proposed, and this procedure is much easier than the re-meshing in FEM. Numerical examples of large deformation analysis are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the newly developed nonlinear meshfree approach. It has been found that the developed meshfree technique provides a superior performance to the conventional FEM in dealing with large deformation problems for metal forming.

Alternative analytical methods for the identification of cancer-related symptom clusters

Advances in symptom management strategies through a better understanding of cancer symptom clusters depend on the identification of symptom clusters that are valid and reliable. The purpose of this exploratory research was to investigate alternative analytical approaches to identify symptom clusters for patients with cancer, using readily accessible statistical methods, and to justify which methods of identification may be appropriate for this context. Three studies were undertaken: (1) a systematic review of the literature, to identify analytical methods commonly used for symptom cluster identification for cancer patients; (2) a secondary data analysis to identify symptom clusters and compare alternative methods, as a guide to best practice approaches in cross-sectional studies; and (3) a secondary data analysis to investigate the stability of symptom clusters over time. The systematic literature review identified, in 10 years prior to March 2007, 13 cross-sectional studies implementing multivariate methods to identify cancer related symptom clusters. The methods commonly used to group symptoms were exploratory factor analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and principal components analysis. Common factor analysis methods were recommended as the best practice cross-sectional methods for cancer symptom cluster identification. A comparison of alternative common factor analysis methods was conducted, in a secondary analysis of a sample of 219 ambulatory cancer patients with mixed diagnoses, assessed within one month of commencing chemotherapy treatment. Principal axis factoring, unweighted least squares and image factor analysis identified five consistent symptom clusters, based on patient self-reported distress ratings of 42 physical symptoms. Extraction of an additional cluster was necessary when using alpha factor analysis to determine clinically relevant symptom clusters. The recommended approaches for symptom cluster identification using nonmultivariate normal data were: principal axis factoring or unweighted least squares for factor extraction, followed by oblique rotation; and use of the scree plot and Minimum Average Partial procedure to determine the number of factors. In contrast to other studies which typically interpret pattern coefficients alone, in these studies symptom clusters were determined on the basis of structure coefficients. This approach was adopted for the stability of the results as structure coefficients are correlations between factors and symptoms unaffected by the correlations between factors. Symptoms could be associated with multiple clusters as a foundation for investigating potential interventions. The stability of these five symptom clusters was investigated in separate common factor analyses, 6 and 12 months after chemotherapy commenced. Five qualitatively consistent symptom clusters were identified over time (Musculoskeletal-discomforts/lethargy, Oral-discomforts, Gastrointestinaldiscomforts, Vasomotor-symptoms, Gastrointestinal-toxicities), but at 12 months two additional clusters were determined (Lethargy and Gastrointestinal/digestive symptoms). Future studies should include physical, psychological, and cognitive symptoms. Further investigation of the identified symptom clusters is required for validation, to examine causality, and potentially to suggest interventions for symptom management. Future studies should use longitudinal analyses to investigate change in symptom clusters, the influence of patient related factors, and the impact on outcomes (e.g., daily functioning) over time.

Spectral coding methods for speech compression and speaker identification

This thesis investigates aspects of encoding the speech spectrum at low bit rates, with extensions to the effect of such coding on automatic speaker identification. Vector quantization (VQ) is a technique for jointly quantizing a block of samples at once, in order to reduce the bit rate of a coding system. The major drawback in using VQ is the complexity of the encoder. Recent research has indicated the potential applicability of the VQ method to speech when product code vector quantization (PCVQ) techniques are utilized. The focus of this research is the efficient representation, calculation and utilization of the speech model as stored in the PCVQ codebook. In this thesis, several VQ approaches are evaluated, and the efficacy of two training algorithms is compared experimentally. It is then shown that these productcode vector quantization algorithms may be augmented with lossless compression algorithms, thus yielding an improved overall compression rate. An approach using a statistical model for the vector codebook indices for subsequent lossless compression is introduced. This coupling of lossy compression and lossless compression enables further compression gain. It is demonstrated that this approach is able to reduce the bit rate requirement from the current 24 bits per 20 millisecond frame to below 20, using a standard spectral distortion metric for comparison. Several fast-search VQ methods for use in speech spectrum coding have been evaluated. The usefulness of fast-search algorithms is highly dependent upon the source characteristics and, although previous research has been undertaken for coding of images using VQ codebooks trained with the source samples directly, the product-code structured codebooks for speech spectrum quantization place new constraints on the search methodology. The second major focus of the research is an investigation of the effect of lowrate spectral compression methods on the task of automatic speaker identification. The motivation for this aspect of the research arose from a need to simultaneously preserve the speech quality and intelligibility and to provide for machine-based automatic speaker recognition using the compressed speech. This is important because there are several emerging applications of speaker identification where compressed speech is involved. Examples include mobile communications where the speech has been highly compressed, or where a database of speech material has been assembled and stored in compressed form. Although these two application areas have the same objective - that of maximizing the identification rate - the starting points are quite different. On the one hand, the speech material used for training the identification algorithm may or may not be available in compressed form. On the other hand, the new test material on which identification is to be based may only be available in compressed form. Using the spectral parameters which have been stored in compressed form, two main classes of speaker identification algorithm are examined. Some studies have been conducted in the past on bandwidth-limited speaker identification, but the use of short-term spectral compression deserves separate investigation. Combining the major aspects of the research, some important design guidelines for the construction of an identification model when based on the use of compressed speech are put forward.

Development and validation of a novel approach to work sampling : a study of nurse practitioner work patterns

Objectives: This methodological paper reports on the development and validation of a work sampling instrument and data collection processes to conduct a national study of nurse practitioners’ work patterns. ---------- Design: Published work sampling instruments provided the basis for development and validation of a tool for use in a national study of nurse practitioner work activities across diverse contextual and clinical service models. Steps taken in the approach included design of a nurse practitioner-specific data collection tool and development of an innovative web-based program to train and establish inter rater reliability of a team of data collectors who were geographically dispersed across metropolitan, rural and remote health care settings. ---------- Setting: The study is part of a large funded study into nurse practitioner service. The Australian Nurse Practitioner Study is a national study phased over three years and was designed to provide essential information for Australian health service planners, regulators and consumer groups on the profile, process and outcome of nurse practitioner service. ---------- Results: The outcome if this phase of the study is empirically tested instruments, process and training materials for use in an international context by investigators interested in conducting a national study of nurse practitioner work practices. ---------- Conclusion: Development and preparation of a new approach to describing nurse practitioner practices using work sampling methods provides the groundwork for international collaboration in evaluation of nurse practitioner service.

Coast control for mass rapid transit railways with searching methods

With daily commercial and social activity in cities, regulation of train service in mass rapid transit railways is necessary to maintain service and passenger flow. Dwell-time adjustment at stations is one commonly used approach to regulation of train service, but its control space is very limited. Coasting control is a viable means of meeting the specific run-time in an inter-station run. The current practice is to start coasting at a fixed distance from the departed station. Hence, it is only optimal with respect to a nominal operational condition of the train schedule, but not the current service demand. The advantage of coasting can only be fully secured when coasting points are determined in real-time. However, identifying the necessary starting point(s) for coasting under the constraints of current service conditions is no simple task as train movement is governed by a large number of factors. The feasibility and performance of classical and heuristic searching measures in locating coasting point(s) is studied with the aid of a single train simulator, according to specified inter-station run times.

Microphone array beamforming approach to blind speech separation

In this paper, we present a microphone array beamforming approach to blind speech separation. Unlike previous beamforming approaches, our system does not require a-priori knowledge of the microphone placement and speaker location, making the system directly comparable other blind source separation methods which require no prior knowledge of recording conditions. Microphone location is automatically estimated using an assumed noise field model, and speaker locations are estimated using cross correlation based methods. The system is evaluated on the data provided for the PASCAL Speech Separation Challenge 2 (SSC2), achieving a word error rate of 58% on the evaluation set.

Improving governance : practical methods and an analytic framework for the enhancement of democracy

Seven endemic governance problems are shown to be currently present in governments around the globe and at any level of government as well (for example municipal, federal). These problems have their roots traced back through more than two thousand years of political, specifically ‘democratic’, history. The evidence shows that accountability, transparency, corruption, representation, campaigning methods, constitutionalism and long-term goals were problematic for the ancient Athenians as well as modern international democratisation efforts encompassing every major global region. Why then, given the extended time period humans have had to deal with these problems, are they still present? At least part of the answer to this question is that philosophers, academics and NGOs as well as MNOs have only approached these endemic problems in a piecemeal manner with a skewed perspective on democracy. Their works have also been subject to the ebbs and flows of human history which essentially started and stopped periods of thinking. In order to approach the investigation of endemic problems in relation to democracy (as the overall quest of this thesis was to generate prescriptive results for the improvement of democratic government), it was necessary to delineate what exactly is being written about when using the term ‘democracy’. It is common knowledge that democracy has no one specific definition or practice, even though scholars and philosophers have been attempting to create a definition for generations. What is currently evident, is that scholars are not approaching democracy in an overly simplified manner (that is, it is government for the people, by the people) but, rather, are seeking the commonalities that democracies share, in other words, those items which are common to all things democratic. Following that specific line of investigation, the major practiced and theoretical versions of democracy were thematically analysed. After that, their themes were collapsed into larger categories, at which point the larger categories were comparatively analysed with the practiced and theoretical versions of democracy. Four democratic ‘particles’ (selecting officials, law, equality and communication) were seen to be present in all practiced and theoretical democratic styles. The democratic particles fused with a unique investigative perspective and in-depth political study created a solid conceptualisation of democracy. As such, it is argued that democracy is an ever-present element of any state government, ‘democratic’ or not, and the particles are the bodies which comprise the democratic element. Frequency- and proximity-based analyses showed that democratic particles are related to endemic problems in international democratisation discourse. The linkages between democratic particles and endemic problems were also evident during the thematic analysis as well historical review. This ultimately led to the viewpoint that if endemic problems are mitigated the act may improve democratic particles which might strengthen the element of democracy in the governing apparatus of any state. Such may actively minimise or wholly displace inefficient forms of government, leading to a government specifically tailored to the population it orders. Once the theoretical and empirical goals were attained, this thesis provided some prescriptive measures which government, civil society, academics, professionals and/or active citizens can use to mitigate endemic problems (in any country and at any level of government) so as to improve the human condition via better democratic government.

Using routinely collected hospital data for child maltreatment surveillance : issues, methods and patterns

Background: International data on child maltreatment are largely derived from child protection agencies, and predominantly report only substantiated cases of child maltreatment. This approach underestimates the incidence of maltreatment and makes inter-jurisdictional comparisons difficult. There has been a growing recognition of the importance of health professionals in identifying, documenting and reporting suspected child maltreatment. This study aimed to describe the issues around case identification using coded morbidity data, outline methods for selecting and grouping relevant codes, and illustrate patterns of maltreatment identified. Methods: A comprehensive review of the ICD-10-AM classification system was undertaken, including review of index terms, a free text search of tabular volumes, and a review of coding standards pertaining to child maltreatment coding. Identified codes were further categorised into maltreatment types including physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional or psychological abuse, and neglect. Using these code groupings, one year of Australian hospitalisation data for children under 18 years of age was examined to quantify the proportion of patients identified and to explore the characteristics of cases assigned maltreatment-related codes. Results: Less than 0.5% of children hospitalised in Australia between 2005 and 2006 had a maltreatment code assigned, almost 4% of children with a principal diagnosis of a mental and behavioural disorder and over 1% of children with an injury or poisoning as the principal diagnosis had a maltreatment code assigned. The patterns of children assigned with definitive T74 codes varied by sex and age group. For males selected as having a maltreatment-related presentation, physical abuse was most commonly coded (62.6% of maltreatment cases) while for females selected as having a maltreatment-related presentation, sexual abuse was the most commonly assigned form of maltreatment (52.9% of maltreatment cases). Conclusion: This study has demonstrated that hospital data could provide valuable information for routine monitoring and surveillance of child maltreatment, even in the absence of population-based linked data sources. With national and international calls for a public health response to child maltreatment, better understanding of, investment in and utilisation of our core national routinely collected data sources will enhance the evidence-base needed to support an appropriate response to children at risk.

A coupled meshless technique/molecular dynamics approach for deformation characterization of monocrystalline metal

This paper presents a multiscale study using the coupled Meshless technique/Molecular Dynamics (M2) for exploring the deformation mechanism of mono-crystalline metal (focus on copper) under uniaxial tension. In M2, an advanced transition algorithm using transition particles is employed to ensure the compatibility of both displacements and their gradients, and an effective local quasi-continuum approach is also applied to obtain the equivalent continuum strain energy density based on the atomistic poentials and Cauchy-Born rule. The key parameters used in M2 are firstly investigated using a benchmark problem. Then M2 is applied to the multiscale simulation for a mono-crystalline copper bar. It has found that the mono-crystalline copper has very good elongation property, and the ultimate strength and Young's modulus are much higher than those obtained in macro-scale.

A geometric approach to trajectory design for an autonomous underwater vehicle : surveying the bulbous bow of a ship

In this paper, we present a control strategy design technique for an autonomous underwater vehicle based on solutions to the motion planning problem derived from differential geometric methods. The motion planning problem is motivated by the practical application of surveying the hull of a ship for implications of harbor and port security. In recent years, engineers and researchers have been collaborating on automating ship hull inspections by employing autonomous vehicles. Despite the progresses made, human intervention is still necessary at this stage. To increase the functionality of these autonomous systems, we focus on developing model-based control strategies for the survey missions around challenging regions, such as the bulbous bow region of a ship. Recent advances in differential geometry have given rise to the field of geometric control theory. This has proven to be an effective framework for control strategy design for mechanical systems, and has recently been extended to applications for underwater vehicles. Advantages of geometric control theory include the exploitation of symmetries and nonlinearities inherent to the system. Here, we examine the posed inspection problem from a path planning viewpoint, applying recently developed techniques from the field of differential geometric control theory to design the control strategies that steer the vehicle along the prescribed path. Three potential scenarios for surveying a ship?s bulbous bow region are motivated for path planning applications. For each scenario, we compute the control strategy and implement it onto a test-bed vehicle. Experimental results are analyzed and compared with theoretical predictions.