Growth and Survival Determinants of Chinese Private Firms: Fieldwork evidence and econometric estimates

This paper reports on one of the first empirical attempts to investigate small firm growth and survival, and their determinants, in the Peoples’ Republic of China. The work is based on field work evidence gathered from a sample of 83 Chinese private firms (mainly SMEs) collected initially by face-to-face interviews, and subsequently by follow-up telephone interviews a year later. We extend the models of Gibrat (1931) and Jovanovic (1982), which traditionally focus on size and age alone (e.g. Brock and Evans, 1986), to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model with two types of additional explanatory variables: firm-specific (e.g. business planning); and environmental (e.g. choice of location). We estimate two econometric models: a ‘basic’ age-size-growth model; and a ‘comprehensive’ growth model, using Heckman’s two-step regression procedure. Estimation is by log-linear regression on cross-section data, with corrections for sample selection bias and heteroskedasticity. Our results refute a pure Gibrat model (but support a more general variant) and support the learning model, as regards the consequences of size and age for growth; and our extension to a comprehensive model highlights the importance of location choice and customer orientation for the growth of Chinese private firms. In the latter model, growth is explained by variables like planning, R&D orientation, market competition, elasticity of demand etc. as well as by control variables. Our work on small firm growth achieves two things. First, it upholds the validity of ‘basic’ size-age-growth models, and successfully applies them to the Chinese economy. Second, it extends the compass of such models to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model incorporating firm-specific and environmental variables.

A Framework for Analyzing Language and Welfare

The paper proposes a general model that will encompass trade and social benefits of a common language, a preference for a variety of languages, the fundamental role of translators, an emotional attachment to maternal language, and the threat that globalization poses to the vast majority of languages. With respect to people’s emotional attachment, the model considers minorities to suffer losses from the subordinate status of their language. In addition, the model treats the threat to minority language as coming from the failure of the parents in the minority to transmit their maternal language (durably) to their children. Some familiar results occur. In particular, we encounter the usual social inefficiencies of decentralized solutions to language learning when the sole benefits of the learning are communicative benefits (though translation intervenes). However, these social inefficiencies assume a totally different air when the con-sumer gains of variety are brought in. One fundamental aim of the paper is to bring together contributions to the economics of language from labor economics, network externalities and international trade that are typically treated separately.

A Framework for Analyzing Language and Welfare

The paper proposes a general model that will encompass trade and social benefits of a common language, a preference for a variety of languages, the fundamental role of translators, an emo-tional attachment to maternal language, and the threat that globalization poses to the vast ma-jority of languages. With respect to people’s emotional attachment, the model considers minor-ities to suffer losses from the subordinate status of their language. In addition, the model treats the threat to minority language as coming from the failure of the parents in the minority to transmit their maternal language (durably) to their children. Some familiar results occur. In particular, we encounter the usual social inefficiencies of decentralized solutions to language learning when the sole benefits of the learning are communicative benefits (though translation intervenes). However, these social inefficiencies assume a totally different air when the con-sumer gains of variety are brought in. One fundamental aim of the paper is to bring together contributions to the economics of language from labor economics, network externalities and international trade that are typically treated separately.

Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation

We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labour supply, which makes agents. decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behaviour that can be interpreted as self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism emerging from systematic forecast errors. Moreover, we demonstrate that these waves can have important implications for the welfare consequences of .scal reforms. (JEL: E32, E62, D84)

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Evolution of decision-making and learning under fluctuating social environments

The capacity to learn to associate sensory perceptions with appropriate motor actions underlies the success of many animal species, from insects to humans. The evolutionary significance of learning has long been a subject of interest for evolutionary biologists who emphasize the bene¬fit yielded by learning under changing environmental conditions, where it is required to flexibly switch from one behavior to another. However, two unsolved questions are particularly impor¬tant for improving our knowledge of the evolutionary advantages provided by learning, and are addressed in the present work. First, because it is possible to learn the wrong behavior when a task is too complex, the learning rules and their underlying psychological characteristics that generate truly adaptive behavior must be identified with greater precision, and must be linked to the specific ecological problems faced by each species. A framework for predicting behavior from the definition of a learning rule is developed here. Learning rules capture cognitive features such as the tendency to explore, or the ability to infer rewards associated to unchosen actions. It is shown that these features interact in a non-intuitive way to generate adaptive behavior in social interactions where individuals affect each other's fitness. Such behavioral predictions are used in an evolutionary model to demonstrate that, surprisingly, simple trial-and-error learn¬ing is not always outcompeted by more computationally demanding inference-based learning, when population members interact in pairwise social interactions. A second question in the evolution of learning is its link with and relative advantage compared to other simpler forms of phenotypic plasticity. After providing a conceptual clarification on the distinction between genetically determined vs. learned responses to environmental stimuli, a new factor in the evo¬lution of learning is proposed: environmental complexity. A simple mathematical model shows that a measure of environmental complexity, the number of possible stimuli in one's environ¬ment, is critical for the evolution of learning. In conclusion, this work opens roads for modeling interactions between evolving species and their environment in order to predict how natural se¬lection shapes animals' cognitive abilities. - La capacité d'apprendre à associer des sensations perceptives à des actions motrices appropriées est sous-jacente au succès évolutif de nombreuses espèces, depuis les insectes jusqu'aux êtres hu¬mains. L'importance évolutive de l'apprentissage est depuis longtemps un sujet d'intérêt pour les biologistes de l'évolution, et ces derniers mettent l'accent sur le bénéfice de l'apprentissage lorsque les conditions environnementales sont changeantes, car dans ce cas il est nécessaire de passer de manière flexible d'un comportement à l'autre. Cependant, deux questions non résolues sont importantes afin d'améliorer notre savoir quant aux avantages évolutifs procurés par l'apprentissage. Premièrement, puisqu'il est possible d'apprendre un comportement incorrect quand une tâche est trop complexe, les règles d'apprentissage qui permettent d'atteindre un com¬portement réellement adaptatif doivent être identifiées avec une plus grande précision, et doivent être mises en relation avec les problèmes écologiques spécifiques rencontrés par chaque espèce. Un cadre théorique ayant pour but de prédire le comportement à partir de la définition d'une règle d'apprentissage est développé ici. Il est démontré que les caractéristiques cognitives, telles que la tendance à explorer ou la capacité d'inférer les récompenses liées à des actions non ex¬périmentées, interagissent de manière non-intuitive dans les interactions sociales pour produire des comportements adaptatifs. Ces prédictions comportementales sont utilisées dans un modèle évolutif afin de démontrer que, de manière surprenante, l'apprentissage simple par essai-et-erreur n'est pas toujours battu par l'apprentissage basé sur l'inférence qui est pourtant plus exigeant en puissance de calcul, lorsque les membres d'une population interagissent socialement par pair. Une deuxième question quant à l'évolution de l'apprentissage concerne son lien et son avantage relatif vis-à-vis d'autres formes plus simples de plasticité phénotypique. Après avoir clarifié la distinction entre réponses aux stimuli génétiquement déterminées ou apprises, un nouveau fac¬teur favorisant l'évolution de l'apprentissage est proposé : la complexité environnementale. Un modèle mathématique permet de montrer qu'une mesure de la complexité environnementale - le nombre de stimuli rencontrés dans l'environnement - a un rôle fondamental pour l'évolution de l'apprentissage. En conclusion, ce travail ouvre de nombreuses perspectives quant à la mo¬délisation des interactions entre les espèces en évolution et leur environnement, dans le but de comprendre comment la sélection naturelle façonne les capacités cognitives des animaux.

A Fitter Future for All - Framework launched

Obesity is a modern lifestyle epidemic that is threatening our health and well-being.This was the key message delivered by Health Minister Edwin Poots at the launch of The Framework for Preventing and Addressing Overweight and Obesity in Northern Ireland 2012-2022: 'A Fitter Future for All'.This ten year strategy will seek to improve the health and wellbeing of people throughout their entire life, from newborns to seniors.Minister Poots said: "We need to face the issue of obesity head on. It's an issue that will require commitment and action from across all sectors, including other government departments and agencies. It is therefore my intention to invest more than £7 million towards tackling the problem of obesity over the next three years."The negative impact on health caused by obesity cannot be over stated. Being obese increases the risk of developing serious illnesses such as heart disease, stroke, some cancers and type 2 diabetes."It is a significant challenge facing modern society and if we don't tackle it now we are storing up a multitude of problems for ourselves in the future."The Minister continued: "More and more of our children and young people are becoming overweight or obese and are putting themselves at risk of developing a range of health problems in their later years."Evidence shows that it is more likely that an obese child will become an obese adult. This in turn will lead to a greater strain on our health and social care services, with more people requiring treatment for obesity related illnesses and specialist care."The proposed framework looks to address a number of key issues, including:-increasing levels of breastfeeding;increasing knowledge and skills about food and its preparationencouraging participation in physical activity;promoting walking and cycling; making sure how we live and where we live encourages and supports healthy eating and physical activity;encouraging and supporting more community involvement with these issues; and;continuation of reformulation of processed foods.The Minister added: "In Northern Ireland 59% of adults are either overweight (36%) or obese (23%). Another worrying statistic is that 8% of children aged 2-15 years were assessed as being obese. These figures demonstrate the scale of the problem and the enormous challenge we are facing."The new framework sets challenging targets. To date we have focussed on simply trying to stop the rise in the levels of obesity, however under A Fitter Future For All we are seeking to actually reduce the level of obesity by 4% and overweight and obesity by 3% among adults. In addition, we are seeking a 3% reduction of obesity and 2% reduction of overweight and obesity among our children and young people." "Meeting these targets will require changes in our lifestyles and behaviours. Most importantly, individuals need to be given the opportunity to make decisions that will benefit their own health and wellbeing".Referring to the 'Give It A Go!' initiative, to increase awareness of the range of nutritional and physical activity initiatives in the southern area, the Minister said: "The Give It A Go! Initiative is a great example of how collaborative work can make such a positive contribution to peoples' lives by providing opportunities for learning, participation in physical activity and for social interaction."Tackling obesity and seeing positive results throughout the life course of the entire population will take time but I strongly believe that the actions set out in this framework will inspire and enable people to improve their diets and be more active."Encouraging people to consider the framework and adopt a healthier lifestyle, the Minister concluded: "Government cannot tackle obesity on its own. We can encourage and promote healthy eating and physical activity but as a society, we must take more individual responsibility for our own health outcomes."Dr Tracy Owen, Consultant in Public Health Medicine with the PHA, said: "The PHA is already working with partner organisations across many of the areas included in the framework 'A Fitter Future for All' and is addressing issues such as developing people's skills and knowledge about healthier eating along with encouraging participation in physical activity. The framework gives us the opportunity to raise awareness of this important area and strengthen action."As the Minister has mentioned, a good example of this coordinated action is the PHA supported initiative Give it a Go! which is providing people in the Southern area with the opportunity to learn about food through supermarket tours and Cook it! classes and to get active through walks, spinning classes and many other activities, all of which are free. These taster sessions are aimed at raising awareness of healthier lifestyles which will ultimately make changes in behaviour more likely."These changes, no matter how small, can help people to lose weight, maintain a healthy weight and bring big benefits to their general health. Importantly, we have developed this joint programme by working closely with our partners, particularly local councils."

Improving young people's health and wellbeing: a framework for public health

The Framework has been developed as a resource to enable local areas in the delivery of their public health role for young people. It poses questions for councillors, health and wellbeing boards, commissioners, providers and education and learning settings to help them support young people to be healthy and to improve outcomes for young people. This is a new framework, which has been developed with support from Association of Young People’s Health and with input from those across health, education, youth services and local and national government.

Learning Difficulties and Ethnicity

This framework is to help people and organisations (e.g. Learning Disability Partnership Boards) work towards ensuring that local services are culturally competent/appropriate.

Framework for Junior Cycle - Full Report

The Framework for Junior Cycle (The Framework) was published in October 2012. It is based on the National Council for Curriculum and Assessment’s advice to the Department as set out in Towards a Framework for Junior Cycle (November 2011) and on research into education for our young people aged 12 to 15 / 16 years. The Framework document can be downloaded from www.education.ie and www.ncca. The mission of the Department of Education and Skills (DES) is “to enable learners to achieve their full potential and contribute to Ireland’s economic, social and cultural development”. By placing students at the centre of the educational experience, the DES wants to ensure that junior cycle education will improve learning experiences and outcomes. The implementation of the Framework for Junior Cycle will enable post-primary schools to provide a quality, inclusive and relevant education with improved learning outcomes for all students, including those with special educational needs

Framework for Junior Cycle 2015

This document, the Framework for Junior Cycle (2015), outlines the key educational changes that the Department of Education and Skills (DES) is putting in place for young people in the first three years of their post-primary education. It builds on and advances the vision for junior cycle reform that was outlined in the Framework for Junior Cycle (2012). The Framework for Junior Cycle (2015) incorporates a shared understanding of how teaching, learning and assessment practices should evolve to support the delivery of a quality, inclusive and relevant education that will meet the needs of junior cycle students, both now and in the future. This shared understanding is informed by engagement with stakeholders and by national and international research.

White Paper on Adult Education Learning for Life

This is Ireland’s first White Paper on Adult Education and marks the adoption of lifelong learning as the governing principle of educational policy. The Paper reflects on the role of adult education in society, builds on the consultation process following publication of the Green Paper, and sets out the Government’s policies and priorities for the future development of the sector. It does not aim to provide a policy blueprint for the training sector given that this work is being advanced through the National Employment Action Plans and previous publications, and the work of the Task Force on Lifelong Learning recently established by the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment. Rather, it seeks to ensure that there is a fit and complementarity between education and training provision, so as to ensure that learners can move progressively and incrementally within an over-arching co-ordinated and learner-centred framework.

Hacia una definición inclusiva del e-learning

El estudio tiene como objetivo la construcción de una definición actual e integradora del concepto de e-learning, que sea aceptada por la mayor parte de la comunidad científica y que sirva como referente por los estudiosos y profesionales de esta temática.

Towards and inclusive definition of e-learning

L'estudi té com a objectiu la construcció d'una definició actual i integradora del concepte d'e-learning, que sigui acceptada per la major part de la comunitat científica i que serveixi com a referent pels estudiosos i professionals d'aquesta temàtica.

Using problem-based learning for introducing producer theory and market structure in intermediate microeconomics

This paper shows how instructors can use the problem‐based learning method to introduce producer theory and market structure in intermediate microeconomics courses. The paper proposes a framework where different decision problems are presented to students, who are asked to imagine that they are the managers of a firm who need to solve a problem in a particular business setting. In this setting, the instructors’ role isto provide both guidance to facilitate student learning and content knowledge on a just‐in‐time basis