UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Spatial Interactions in Hedonic Pricing Models: The Urban Housing Market of Aveiro, Portugal

Spatial heterogeneity, spatial dependence and spatial scale constitute key features of spatial analysis of housing markets. However, the common practice of modelling spatial dependence as being generated by spatial interactions through a known spatial weights matrix is often not satisfactory. While existing estimators of spatial weights matrices are based on repeat sales or panel data, this paper takes this approach to a cross-section setting. Specifically, based on an a priori definition of housing submarkets and the assumption of a multifactor model, we develop maximum likelihood methodology to estimate hedonic models that facilitate understanding of both spatial heterogeneity and spatial interactions. The methodology, based on statistical orthogonal factor analysis, is applied to the urban housing market of Aveiro, Portugal at two different spatial scales.

Genetic- or transforming growth factor-beta 1-induced changes in epidermal peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta/delta expression dictate wound repair kinetics.

Advances in wound care are of great importance in clinical injury management. In this respect, the nuclear receptor peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)beta/delta occupies a unique position at the intersection of diverse inflammatory or anti-inflammatory signals that influence wound repair. This study shows how changes in PPARbeta/delta expression have a profound effect on wound healing. Using two different in vivo models based on topical application of recombinant transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta1 and ablation of the Smad3 gene, we show that prolonged expression and activity of PPARbeta/delta accelerate wound closure. The results reveal a dual role of TGF-beta1 as a chemoattractant of inflammatory cells and repressor of inflammation-induced PPARbeta/delta expression. Also, they provide insight into the so far reported paradoxical effects of the application of exogenous TGF-beta1 at wound sites.

Which subgroup of patients with rheumatoid arthritis benefits from switching to rituximab versus alternative anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents after previous failure of an anti-TNF agent?

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with an inadequate response to TNF antagonists (aTNFs) may switch to an alternative aTNF or start treatment from a different class of drugs, such as rituximab (RTX). It remains unclear in which clinical settings these therapeutic strategies offer most benefit. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the effectiveness of RTX versus alternative aTNFs on RA disease activity in different subgroups of patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of patients with RA who discontinued at least one aTNF and subsequently received either RTX or an alternative aTNF, nested within the Swiss RA registry (SCQM-RA) was carried out. The primary outcome, longitudinal improvement in 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28), was analysed using multivariate regression models for longitudinal data and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 318 patients with RA included; 155 received RTX and 163 received an alternative aTNF. The relative benefit of RTX varied with the type of prior aTNF failure: when the motive for switching was ineffectiveness to previous aTNFs, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was significantly better with RTX than with an alternative aTNF (p = 0.03; at 6 months, -1.34 (95% CI -1.54 to -1.15) vs -0.93 (95% CI -1.28 to -0.59), respectively). When the motive for switching was other causes, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was similar for RTX and alternative aTNFs (p = 0.40). These results were not significantly modified by the number of previous aTNF failures, the type of aTNF switches, or the presence of co-treatment with a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. CONCLUSION: This observational study suggests that in patients with RA who have stopped a previous aTNF treatment because of ineffectiveness changing to RTX is more effective than switching to an alternative aTNF.

Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models

This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selecting (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact approach to DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an in ation forecasting application. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and investigate whether they lead to similar results.

Nuclear Factor I genomic binding associates with chromatin boundaries.

BACKGROUND: The Nuclear Factor I (NFI) family of DNA binding proteins (also called CCAAT box transcription factors or CTF) is involved in both DNA replication and gene expression regulation. Using chromatin immuno-precipitation and high throughput sequencing (ChIP-Seq), we performed a genome-wide mapping of NFI DNA binding sites in primary mouse embryonic fibroblasts. RESULTS: We found that in vivo and in vitro NFI DNA binding specificities are indistinguishable, as in vivo ChIP-Seq NFI binding sites matched predictions based on previously established position weight matrix models of its in vitro binding specificity. Combining ChIP-Seq with mRNA profiling data, we found that NFI preferentially associates with highly expressed genes that it up-regulates, while binding sites were under-represented at expressed but unregulated genes. Genomic binding also correlated with markers of transcribed genes such as histone modifications H3K4me3 and H3K36me3, even outside of annotated transcribed loci, implying NFI in the control of the deposition of these modifications. Positional correlation between + and - strand ChIP-Seq tags revealed that, in contrast to other transcription factors, NFI associates with a nucleosomal length of cleavage-resistant DNA, suggesting an interaction with positioned nucleosomes. In addition, NFI binding prominently occurred at boundaries displaying discontinuities in histone modifications specific of expressed and silent chromatin, such as loci submitted to parental allele-specific imprinted expression. CONCLUSIONS: Our data thus suggest that NFI nucleosomal interaction may contribute to the partitioning of distinct chromatin domains and to epigenetic gene expression regulation.NFI ChIP-Seq and input control DNA data were deposited at Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) repository under accession number GSE15844. Gene expression microarray data for mouse embryonic fibroblasts are on GEO accession number GSE15871.

Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Participation of interleukin-5, interleukin-8 and leukotriene B4 in eosinophil accumulation in two different experimental models

There are several experimental models describing in vivo eosinophil (EO) migration, including ip injection of a large volume of saline (SAL) or Sephadex beads (SEP). The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanisms involved in the EO migration in these two models. Two consecutive injections of SAL given 48 hr apart, induced a selective recruitment of EO into peritoneal cavity of rats, which peaked 48 hr after the last injection. SEP, when injected ip, promoted EO accumulation in rats. The phenomenom was dose-related and peaked 48 hr after SEP injection. To investigate the mediators involved in this process we showed that BW A4C, MK 886 and dexamethasone (DXA) inhibited the EO migration induced by SAL and SEP. To investigate the source of the EO chemotactic factor we showed that mast cells, macrophages (MO), but not lymphocytes, incubated in vitro in presence of SAL released a factor which induced EO migration. With SEP, only mast cells release a factor that induced EO migration, which was inhibited by BW A4C, MK 886 and DXA. Furthermore, the chemotactic activity of SAL-stimulated mast cells was inhibited by antisera against IL-5 and IL-8 (interleukin). SAL-stimulated MO were only inhibited by anti-IL-8 antibodies as well SEP-stimulated mast cells. These results suggest that the EO migration induced by SAL may be dependent on resident mast cells and MO and mediated by LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8. SEP-induced EO migration was dependent on mast cells and may be mediated by LTB4 and IL-8. Furthermore, IL-5 and IL-8 induced EO migration, which was also dependent on resident cells and mediated by LTB4 . In conclusion, EO migration induced by SAL is dependent on mast cells and MO, whereas that induced by SEP is dependent on mast cells alone. Stimulated mast cells release LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8 while MO release LTB4 and IL-8. The IL-5 and IL-8 release by the SAL or SEP-stimulated resident cells may act in an autocrine fashion, thus potentiating LTB4 release.

Role of eosinophilic airway inflammation in models of asthma

Eosinophils play a central role in the establishment and outcome of bronchial inflammation in asthma. Animal models of allergy are useful to answer questions related to mechanisms of allergic inflammation. We have used models of sensitized and boosted guinea pigs to investigate the nature of bronchial inflammation in allergic conditions. These animals develop marked bronchial infiltration composed mainly of CD4+ T-lymphocytes and eosinophils. Further provocation with antigen leads to degranulation of eosinophils and ulceration of the bronchial mucosa. Eosinophils are the first cells to increase in numbers in the mucosa after antigen challenge and depend on the expression of alpha 4 integrin to adhere to the vascular endothelium and transmigrate to the mucosa. Blockage of alpha4 integrin expression with specific antibody prevents not only the transmigration of eosinophils but also the development of bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to agonists in sensitized and challenged animals, clearly suggesting a role for this cell type in this altered functional state. Moreover, introduction of antibody against Major Basic Protein into the airways also prevents the development of BHR in similar model. BHR can also be suppressed by the use of FK506, an immunosuppressor that reduces in almost 100% the infiltration of eosinophils into the bronchi of allergic animals. These data support the concept that eosinophil is the most important pro-inflammatory factor in bronchial inflammation associated with allergy.

Lufaxin, a novel factor Xa inhibitor from the salivary gland of the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis blocks protease-activated receptor 2 activation and inhibits inflammation and thrombosis in vivo.

OBJECTIVE: Blood-sucking arthropods' salivary glands contain a remarkable diversity of antihemostatics. The aim of the present study was to identify the unique salivary anticoagulant of the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis, which remained elusive for decades. METHODS AND RESULTS: Several L. longipalpis salivary proteins were expressed in human embryonic kidney 293 cells and screened for inhibition of blood coagulation. A novel 32.4-kDa molecule, named Lufaxin, was identified as a slow, tight, noncompetitive, and reversible inhibitor of factor Xa (FXa). Notably, Lufaxin's primary sequence does not share similarity to any physiological or salivary inhibitors of coagulation reported to date. Lufaxin is specific for FXa and does not interact with FX, Dansyl-Glu-Gly-Arg-FXa, or 15 other enzymes. In addition, Lufaxin blocks prothrombinase and increases both prothrombin time and activated partial thromboplastin time. Surface plasmon resonance experiments revealed that FXa binds Lufaxin with an equilibrium constant ≈3 nM, and isothermal titration calorimetry determined a stoichiometry of 1:1. Lufaxin also prevents protease-activated receptor 2 activation by FXa in the MDA-MB-231 cell line and abrogates edema formation triggered by injection of FXa in the paw of mice. Moreover, Lufaxin prevents FeCl(3)-induced carotid artery thrombus formation and prolongs activated partial thromboplastin time ex vivo, implying that it works as an anticoagulant in vivo. Finally, salivary gland of sand flies was found to inhibit FXa and to interact with the enzyme. CONCLUSIONS: Lufaxin belongs to a novel family of slow-tight FXa inhibitors, which display antithrombotic and anti-inflammatory activities. It is a useful tool to understand FXa structural features and its role in prohemostatic and proinflammatory events.

Orthogonal higher order structure and confirmatory factor analysis of the French Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-III).

According to the most widely accepted Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement, each subtest score of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Adults (3rd ed.; WAIS-III) should reflect both 1st- and 2nd-order factors (i.e., 4 or 5 broad abilities and 1 general factor). To disentangle the contribution of each factor, we applied a Schmid-Leiman orthogonalization transformation (SLT) to the standardization data published in the French technical manual for the WAIS-III. Results showed that the general factor accounted for 63% of the common variance and that the specific contributions of the 1st-order factors were weak (4.7%-15.9%). We also addressed this issue by using confirmatory factor analysis. Results indicated that the bifactor model (with 1st-order group and general factors) better fit the data than did the traditional higher order structure. Models based on the CHC framework were also tested. Results indicated that a higher order CHC model showed a better fit than did the classical 4-factor model; however, the WAIS bifactor structure was the most adequate. We recommend that users do not discount the Full Scale IQ when interpreting the index scores of the WAIS-III because the general factor accounts for the bulk of the common variance in the French WAIS-III. The 4 index scores cannot be considered to reflect only broad ability because they include a strong contribution of the general factor.

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

¿Es el sexo femenino un factor de riesgo quirúrgico en la cirugía de valvular?

RESULTADOS: Se intervino un 60,7% de los pacientes de SV aórtica, un 25,7% de SV mitral , un 13,6% de doble SV. Además, en el 22,5% se realizó revascularización coronaria. Las mujeres presentaban más edad, SV mitral, reintervención, fibrilación auricular, anemia y peor clase funcional. Los varones presentaron más tabaquismo, SV aórtica, enfermedad coronaria, cirugía de revascularización coronaria, función sistólica deprimida y tiempo de clampaje aórtico. En el análisis bivariado relacionado con mortalidad hospitalaria (8,35%) fueron significativos la edad, el sexo, la clase funcional, la posición de la prótesis, la superficie corporal, la anemia, el número de concentrados de hematíes y el tiempo de clampaje aórtico. Se constató como factores de riesgo independientes el sexo (OR 2,92; 95% intervalo confianza 1,05-8,14) y la anemia (OR 4,23; 95% intervalo confianza 1,66-10,8) tras ajustarlos con los factores de riesgo, factores confusores y el año de intervención. CONCLUSIONES: El sexo femenino es un factor de riesgo independiente para la mortalidad hospitalaria en la cirugía de sustitución valvular.

Atrial fibrillation and minimally invasive coronary artery bypass grafting: risk factor analysis.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a frequent arrhythmia after conventional coronary artery bypass grafting. With the advent of minimally invasive technique for left internal mammary artery-left anterior descending coronary artery (LIMA-LAD) grafting, we analyzed the incidence and the risk factors of postoperative AF in this patient population. This prospective study involves all patients undergoing isolated LIMA-LAD grafting with minimally invasive technique between January 1994 and June 2000. Twenty-four possible risk factors for postoperative AF were entered into univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Postoperative AF occurred in 21 of the 90 patients (23.3%) analyzed. Double- or triple-vessel disease was present in 12/90 patients (13.3%). On univariate analysis, right coronary artery disease (p <0.01), age (p = 0.01), and diabetes (p = 0.04) were found to be risk factors for AF. On multivariate analysis, right coronary artery disease was identified as the sole significant risk factor (p = 0.02). In this patient population, the incidence of AF after minimally invasive coronary artery bypass is in the range of that reported for conventional coronary artery bypass grafting. Right coronary artery disease was found to be an independent predictor, and this may be related to the fact that in this patient population the diseased right coronary artery was not revascularized at the time of the surgical procedure. For the same reason, this risk factor may find a broader application to noncardiac thoracic surgery.

Implication of DNA methylation and PAX5 factor in the transcriptional regulation of hTERT, the human telomerase reverse transcriptase gene

RESUME La télomérase est une enzyme dite "d'immortalité" qui permet aux cellules de maintenir la longueur de leurs télomères, ce qui confère une capacité de réplication illimitée aux cellules reproductrices et cancéreuses. A l'inverse, les cellules somatiques normales, qui n'expriment pas la télomérase, ont une capacité de réplication limitée. La sous-unité catalytique de la télomérase, hTERT, est définie comme le facteur limitant l'activité télomérasique. Entre activateurs et répresseurs, le rôle de la méthylation de l'ADN et de l'acétylation des histones, de nombreux modèles ont été suggérés. La découverte de l'implication de CTCF dans la régulation transcriptionnelle de hTERT explique en partie le mécanisme de répression de la télomérase dans la plupart des cellules somatiques et sa réactivation dans les cellules tumorales. Dans les cellules télomérase-positives, l'activité inhibitrice de CTCF est bloquée par un mécanisme dépendent ou non de la méthylation. Dans la plupart des carcinomes, une hyperméthylation de la région 5' de hTERT bloque l'effet inhibiteur de CTCF, alors qu'une petite région hypométhylée permet un faible niveau de transcription du gène. Nous avons démontré que la protéine MBD2 se lie spécifiquement sur la région 5' méthylée de hTERT dans différentes lignées cellulaires et qu'elle est impliquée dans la répression partielle de la transcription de hTERT dans les cellules tumorales méthylées. Par contre, nous avons montré que dans les lymphocytes B normaux et néoplasiques, la régulation de hTERT est indépendante de la méthylation. Dans ces cellules, le facteur PAX5 se lie sur la région 5' de hTERT en aval du site d'initiation de la traduction (ATG). L'expression exogène de PAX5 dans les cellules télomérase-négatives active la transcription de hTERT, alors que la répression de PAX5 dans les cellules lymphomateuses inhibe la transcription du gène. PAX5 est donc directement impliqué dans l'activation de l'expression de hTERT dans les lymphocytes B exprimant la télomérase. Ces résultats révèlent des différences entre les niveaux de méthylation de hTERT dans les cellules de carcinomes et les lymphocytes B exprimant la télomérase. La méthylation de hTERT en tant que biomarqueur de cancer a été évaluée, puis appliquée à la détection de métastases. Nous avons ainsi montré que la méthylation de hTERT est positivement corrélée au diagnostic cytologique dans les liquides céphalorachidiens. Nos résultats conduisent à un modèle de régulation de hTERT, qui aide à comprendre comment la transcription de ce gène est régulée par CTCF, avec un mécanisme lié ou non à la méthylation du gène hTERT. La méthylation de hTERT s'est aussi révélée être un nouveau et prometteur biomarqueur de cancer. SUMMARY Human telomerase is an "immortalizing" enzyme that enables cells to maintain telomere length, allowing unlimited replicative capacity to reproductive and cancer cells. Conversely, normal somatic cells that do not express telomerase have a finite replicative capacity. The catalytic subunit of telomerase, hTERT, is defined as the limiting factor for telomerase activity. Between activators and repressors, and the role of DNA methylation and histone acetylation, an abundance of hTERT regulatory models have been suggested. The discovery of the implication of CTCF in the transcriptional regulation of hTERT in part explained the mechanism of silencing of telomerase in most somatic cells and its reactivation in neoplastic cells. In telomerase-positive cells, the inhibitory activity of CTCF is blocked by methylation-dependent and -independent mechanisms. In most carcinoma cells, hypermethylation of the hTERT 5' region has been shown to block the inhibitory effect of CTCF, while a short hypomethylated region allows a low transcription level of the gene. We have demonstrated that MBD2 protein specifically binds the methylated 5' region of hTERT in different cell lines and is therefore involved in the partial repression of hTERT transcription in methylated tumor cells. In contrast, we have shown that in normal and neoplastic B cells, hTERT regulation is methylation-independent. The PAX5 factor has been shown to bind to the hTERT 5'region downstream of the ATG translational start site. Ectopic expression of PAX5 in telomerase-negative cells or repression of PAX5 expression in B lymphoma cells respectively activated and repressed hTERT transcription. Thus, PAX5 is strongly implicated in hTERT expression activation in telomerase-positive B cells. These results reveal differences between the hTERT methylation patterns in telomerase-positive carcinoma cells and telomerase-positive normal B cells. The potential of hTERT methylation as a cancer biomarker was evaluated and applied to the detection of metastasis. We have shown that hTERT methylation correlates with the cytological diagnosis in cerebrospinal fluids. Our results suggest a model of hTERT gene regulation, which helps us to better understand how hTERT transcription is regulated by CTCF in methylation-dependant and independent mechanisms. Our data also indicate that hTERT methylation is a promising new cancer biomarker.