Microcracking and fracture process in cement mortar and concrete: a comparative study using acoustic emission technique

This article reports the acoustic emission (AE) study of precursory micro-cracking activity and fracture behaviour of quasi-brittle materials such as concrete and cement mortar. In the present study, notched three-point bend specimens (TPB) were tested under crack mouth opening displacement (CMOD) control at a rate of 0.0004 mm/sec and the accompanying AE were recorded using a 8 channel AE monitoring system. The various AE statistical parameters including AE event rate , AE energy release rate , amplitude distribution for computing the AE based b-value, cumulative energy (I E) pound and ring down count (RDC) were used for the analysis. The results show that the micro-cracks initiated and grew at an early stage in mortar in the pre peak regime. While in the case of concrete, the micro-crack growth occurred during the peak load regime. However, both concrete and mortar showed three distinct stages of micro-cracking activity, namely initiation, stable growth and nucleation prior to the final failure. The AE statistical behavior of each individual stage is dependent on the number and size distribution of micro-cracks. The results obtained in the laboratory are useful to understand the various stages of micro-cracking activity during the fracture process in quasi-brittle materials such as concrete & mortar and extend them for field applications.

Regioselective Deiodination of Iodothyronamines, Endogenous Thyroid Hormone Derivatives, by Deiodinase Mimics

Iodothyronine deiodinases (IDs) are mammalian selenoenzymes that play an important role in the activation and inactivation pound of thyroid hormones. It is known that iodothyronamines (TnAMs), produced by the decarboxylation of thyroid hormones, act as substrates for deiodinases. To understand whether decarboxylation alters the rate and/or regioselectivity of deiodination by using synthetic deiodinase mimics, we studied the deiodination of different iodothyronamines. The triiodo derivative 3,3',5-triiodothyronamine (T3AM) is deiodinated at the inner ring by naphthyl-based deiodinase mimics, which is similar to the deiodination of 3,3',5-triiodothyronine (T3). However, T3AM under-goes much slower deiodination than T3. Detailed experimental and theoretical investigations suggest that T3AM forms a weaker halogen bond with selenium donors than T3. Kinetic studies and single-crystal X-ray structures of T3 and T3AM reveal that intermolecular I center dot center dot center dot I interactions may play an important role in deiodination. The formation of hydrogen- and halogen-bonding assemblies, which leads to the formation of a dimeric species of T3 in solution, facilitates the interactions between the selenium and iodine atoms. In contrast, T3AM, which does not have I center dot center dot I interactions, undergoes much slower deiodination.

NMR relaxation studies in doped poly-3-methylthiophene

NMR relaxation rates (1/T-1), magnetic susceptibility, and electrical conductivity studies in doped poly-3-methylthiophene are reported in this paper. The magnetic susceptibility data show the contributions from both Pauli and Curie spins, with the size of the Pauli term depending strongly on the doping level. Proton and fluorine NMR relaxation rates have been studied as a function of temperature (3-300 K) and field (for protons at 0.9, 9.0, 16.4, and 23.4 T, and for fluorine at 9.0 T). The temperature dependence of T-1 is classified into three regimes: (a) For T < (g mu(B) B/2k(B)), the relaxation mechanism follows a modified Korringa relation due to electron-electron interactions and disorder. H-1-T-1 is due to the electron-nuclear dipolar interaction in addition to the contact term. (b) For the intermediate temperature range (g mu(B) B/2k(B)) < T < T-BPP (the temperature where the contribution from the reorientation motion to the T-1 is insignificant) the relaxation mechanism is via spin diffusion to the paramagnetic centers. (c) In the high-temperature regime and at low Larmor frequency the relaxation follows the modified Bloembergen, Purcell, and Pound model. T-1 data analysis has been carried out in light of these models depending upon the temperature and frequency range of study. Fluorine relaxation data have been analyzed and attributed to the PF6 reorientation. The cross relaxation among the H-1 and F-19 nuclei has been observed in the entire temperature range suggesting the role of magnetic dipolar interaction modulated by the reorientation of the symmetric molecular subgroups. The data analysis shows that the enhancement in the Korringa ratio is greater in a less conducting sample. Intra-and interchain hopping of charge carriers is found to be a dominant relaxation mechanism at low temperature. Frequency dependence of T-1(-1) on temperature shows that at low temperature T < (g mu(B) B/2k(B))] the system shows three dimensions and changes to quasi one dimension at high temperature. Moreover, a good correlation between electrical conductivity, magnetic susceptibility, and NMR T-1 data has been observed.

The Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders: Report on the Design, Implementation, and Descriptive Results for 2006

This technical memorandum documents the design, implementation, data preparation, and descriptive results for the 2006 Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders. The data collection was designed by the NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center Social Science Research Group to track the financial and economic status and performance by vessels holding a federal moratorium permit for harvesting shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico. A two page, self-administered mail survey collected total annual costs broken out into seven categories and auxiliary economic data. In May 2007, 580 vessels were randomly selected, stratified by state, from a preliminary population of 1,709 vessels with federal permits to shrimp in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The survey was implemented during the rest of 2007. After many reminder and verification phone calls, 509 surveys were deemed complete, for an ineligibility-adjusted response rate of 90.7%. The linking of each individual vessel’s cost data to its revenue data from a different data collection was imperfect, and hence the final number of observations used in the analyses is 484. Based on various measures and tests of validity throughout the technical memorandum, the quality of the data is high. The results are presented in a standardized table format, linking vessel characteristics and operations to simple balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements. In the text, results are discussed for the total fleet, the Gulf shrimp fleet, the active Gulf shrimp fleet, and the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet. Additional results for shrimp vessels grouped by state, by vessel characteristics, by landings volume, and by ownership structure are available in the appendices. The general conclusion of this report is that the financial and economic situation is bleak for the average vessels in most of the categories that were evaluated. With few exceptions, cash flow for the average vessel is positive while the net revenue from operations and the “profit” are negative. With negative net revenue from operations, the economic return for average shrimp vessels is less than zero. Only with the help of government payments does the average owner just about break even. In the short-term, this will discourage any new investments in the industry. The financial situation in 2006, especially if it endures over multiple years, also is economically unsustainable for the average established business. Vessels in the active and inactive Gulf shrimp fleet are, on average, 69 feet long, weigh 105 gross tons, are powered by 505 hp motor(s), and are 23 years old. Three-quarters of the vessels have steel hulls and 59% use a freezer for refrigeration. The average market value of these vessels was $175,149 in 2006, about a hundred-thousand dollars less than the average original purchase price. The outstanding loans averaged $91,955, leading to an average owner equity of $83,194. Based on the sample, 85% of the federally permitted Gulf shrimp fleet was actively shrimping in 2006. Of these 386 active Gulf shrimp vessels, just under half (46%) were owner-operated. On average, these vessels burned 52,931 gallons of fuel, landed 101,268 pounds of shrimp, and received $2.47 per pound of shrimp. Non-shrimp landings added less than 1% to cash flow, indicating that the federal Gulf shrimp fishery is very specialized. The average total cash outflow was $243,415 of which $108,775 was due to fuel expenses alone. The expenses for hired crew and captains were on average $54,866 which indicates the importance of the industry as a source of wage income. The resulting average net cash flow is $16,225 but has a large standard deviation. For the population of active Gulf shrimp vessels we can state with 95% certainty that the average net cash flow was between $9,500 and $23,000 in 2006. The median net cash flow was $11,843. Based on the income statement for active Gulf shrimp vessels, the average fixed costs accounted for just under a quarter of operating expenses (23.1%), labor costs for just over a quarter (25.3%), and the non-labor variable costs for just over half (51.6%). The fuel costs alone accounted for 42.9% of total operating expenses in 2006. It should be noted that the labor cost category in the income statement includes both the actual cash payments to hired labor and an estimate of the opportunity cost of owner-operators’ time spent as captain. The average labor contribution (as captain) of an owner-operator is estimated at about $19,800. The average net revenue from operations is negative $7,429, and is statistically different and less than zero in spite of a large standard deviation. The economic return to Gulf shrimping is negative 4%. Including non-operating activities, foremost an average government payment of $13,662, leads to an average loss before taxes of $907 for the vessel owners. The confidence interval of this value straddles zero, so we cannot reject, with 95% certainty, that the population average is zero. The average inactive Gulf shrimp vessel is generally of a smaller scale than the average active vessel. Inactive vessels are physically smaller, are valued much lower, and are less dependent on loans. Fixed costs account for nearly three quarters of the total operating expenses of $11,926, and only 6% of these vessels have hull insurance. With an average net cash flow of negative $7,537, the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet has a major liquidity problem. On average, net revenue from operations is negative $11,396, which amounts to a negative 15% economic return, and owners lose $9,381 on their vessels before taxes. To sustain such losses and especially to survive the negative cash flow, many of the owners must be subsidizing their shrimp vessels with the help of other income or wealth sources or are drawing down their equity. Active Gulf shrimp vessels in all states but Texas exhibited negative returns. The Alabama and Mississippi fleets have the highest assets (vessel values), on average, yet they generate zero cash flow and negative $32,224 net revenue from operations. Due to their high (loan) leverage ratio the negative 11% economic return is amplified into a negative 21% return on equity. In contrast, for Texas vessels, which actually have the highest leverage ratio among the states, a 1% economic return is amplified into a 13% return on equity. From a financial perspective, the average Florida and Louisiana vessels conform roughly to the overall average of the active Gulf shrimp fleet. It should be noted that these results are averages and hence hide the variation that clearly exists within all fleets and all categories. Although the financial situation for the average vessel is bleak, some vessels are profitable. (PDF contains 101 pages)

Fischereitechnische Forschung für eine selektive, umweltverträgliche und energiesparende Fischerei

On 1st March 1995, the name of the former "Institut für Fangtechnik" ("Institute for Fishing Techniques") at the Federal Research Centre for Fisheries in Hamburg has been changed into "Institut für Fischereitechnik" ("Institute for Fishery Techniques"). The new conception and structure of this institute are described. Aims and possibilities of research in fishing techniques as a contribution for a selective, environment friendly and energy saving fishery are illustrated by examples in Baltic cod and eel fishery and also sea-bird bycatches, crangon fishery in the North Sea, and possible substitutions for technologies with high fuel consumption by energy saving technologies as longlining, gillnetting and anchored pound nets.

Procedures to prevent the occurrence of potentially dangerous situations during the operation of the Mackereth 1-metre mini or short sediment corer

During the 1950s and 1960s, F.J.H. Mackereth developed and published plans for a series of pneumatic samplers for lake sediments. Unfortunately, as the equipment was continually evolving during ensuing research, no user manuals, beyond the original publication, had been produced. Over the last few years there have been a few potentially very serious accidents with the 1-metre corer, which has prompted the authors to carry out a risk assessment. This highlighted two weaknesses in the design and its later developments. They can be corrected simply by checking for screw threads that may have been added to the exhaust port on the mini-corer, and by changing the operating procedure. An A4 nine-page user manual is now available from the authors. A small charge ( pound sterling 10 in 1998) will be made to cover handling costs and postage.

The needle in the hundred square degree haystack: The hunt for binary neutron star mergers with LIGO and Palomar Transient Factory

The Advanced LIGO and Virgo experiments are poised to detect gravitational waves (GWs) directly for the first time this decade. The ultimate prize will be joint observation of a compact binary merger in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels. However, GW sky locations that are uncertain by hundreds of square degrees will pose a challenge. I describe a real-time detection pipeline and a rapid Bayesian parameter estimation code that will make it possible to search promptly for optical counterparts in Advanced LIGO. Having analyzed a comprehensive population of simulated GW sources, we describe the sky localization accuracy that the GW detector network will achieve as each detector comes online and progresses toward design sensitivity. Next, in preparation for the optical search with the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF), we have developed a unique capability to detect optical afterglows of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM). Its comparable error regions offer a close parallel to the Advanced LIGO problem, but Fermi's unique access to MeV-GeV photons and its near all-sky coverage may allow us to look at optical afterglows in a relatively unexplored part of the GRB parameter space. We present the discovery and broadband follow-up observations (X-ray, UV, optical, millimeter, and radio) of eight GBM-IPTF afterglows. Two of the bursts (GRB 130702A / iPTF13bxl and GRB 140606B / iPTF14bfu) are at low redshift (z=0.145 and z = 0.384, respectively), are sub-luminous with respect to "standard" cosmological bursts, and have spectroscopically confirmed broad-line type Ic supernovae. These two bursts are possibly consistent with mildly relativistic shocks breaking out from the progenitor envelopes rather than the standard mechanism of internal shocks within an ultra-relativistic jet. On a technical level, the GBM--IPTF effort is a prototype for locating and observing optical counterparts of GW events in Advanced LIGO with the Zwicky Transient Facility.

用于多普勒测风雷达的单频全固态激光器稳频

采用Pound-Drever-Hall技术，对用于多普勒测风雷达的种子注入激光器的主动激光器进行稳频，将其频率锁定在一个特殊设计的法珀腔上。该法珀腔总体采用零膨胀微晶玻璃材料制成，具有极高的温度稳定性。使用计算机采集鉴频信号并且进行处理。锁定后，1秒内激光器的相对频率漂移为±25kHz，一小时内的相对频率漂移为±55kHz，满足多普勒测风雷达的要求。

注入锁定激光器的边带锁频技术稳频系统优化分析

介绍了边带锁频技术稳频方法，推导出鉴频曲线，对稳频控制过程进行了分析．建立了注入锁定激光器的边带锁频技术稳频系统理论模型，讨论了相关参量对稳频效果的影响并且进行了优化．结果表明，增加入射光强，采用窄线宽的法布里一珀罗以及对法布里一珀罗进行高准确度温控都可以增强稳频效果．提出适用于注入锁定激光器的两种稳频方案并进行比较．

Simulation of Tail Weight Distributions in Biological Year 1986–2006 Landings of Brown Shrimp, Farfantepenaeus aztecus, from the Northern Gulf of Mexico Fishery

Size distribution within re- ported landings is an important aspect of northern Gulf of Mexico penaeid shrimp stock assessments. It reflects shrimp population characteristics such as numerical abundance of various sizes, age structure, and vital rates (e.g. recruitment, growth, and mortality), as well as effects of fishing, fishing power, fishing practices, sampling, size-grading, etc. The usual measure of shrimp size in archived landings data is count (C) the number of shrimp tails (abdomen or edible portion) per pound (0.4536 kg). Shrimp are marketed and landings reported in pounds within tail count categories. Statistically, these count categories are count class intervals or bins with upper and lower limits expressed in C. Count categories vary in width, overlap, and frequency of occurrence within the landings. The upper and lower limits of most count class intervals can be transformed to lower and upper limits (respectively) of class intervals expressed in pounds per shrimp tail, w, the reciprocal of C (i.e. w = 1/C). Age based stock assessments have relied on various algorithms to estimate numbers of shrimp from pounds landed within count categories. These algorithms required un- derlying explicit or implicit assumptions about the distribution of C or w. However, no attempts were made to assess the actual distribution of C or w. Therefore, validity of the algorithms and assumptions could not be determined. When different algorithms were applied to landings within the same size categories, they produced different estimates of numbers of shrimp. This paper demonstrates a method of simulating the distribution of w in reported biological year landings of shrimp. We used, as examples, landings of brown shrimp, Farfantepenaeus aztecus, from the northern Gulf of Mexico fishery in biological years 1986–2006. Brown shrimp biological year, Ti, is defined as beginning on 1 May of the same calendar year as Ti and ending on 30 April of the next calendar year, where subscript i is the place marker for biological year. Biological year landings encompass most if not all of the brown shrimp life cycle and life span. Simulated distributions of w reflect all factors influencing sizes of brown shrimp in the landings within a given biological year. Our method does not require a priori assumptions about the parent distributions of w or C, and it takes into account the variability in width, overlap, and frequency of occurrence of count categories within the landings. Simulated biological year distributions of w can be transformed to equivalent distributions of C. Our method may be useful in future testing of previously applied algorithms and development of new estimators based on statistical estimation theory and the underlying distribution of w or C. We also examine some applications of biological year distributions of w, and additional variables derived from them.

Size-composition of Annual Landings in the White Shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, Fishery of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, 1960–2006: Its Trend and Relationships with Other Fishery-dependent Variable

The potential for growth overfishing in the white shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, fishery of the northern Gulf of Mexico appears to have been of limited concern to Federal or state shrimp management entities, following the cataclysmic drop in white shrimp abundance in the 1940’s. As expected from surplus production theory, a decrease in size of shrimp in the annual landings accompanies increasing fishing effort, and can eventually reduce the value of the landings. Growth overfishing can exacerbate such decline in value of the annual landings. We characterize trends in size-composition of annual landings and other annual fishery-dependent variables in this fishery to determine relationships between selected pairs of these variables and to determine whether growth overfishing occurred during 1960–2006. Signs of growth overfishing were equivocal. For example, as nominal fishing effort increased, the initially upward, decelerating trend in annual yield approached a local maximum in the 1980’s. However, an accelerating upward trend in yield followed as effort continued to increase. Yield then reached its highest point in the time series in 2006, as nominal fishing effort declined due to exogenous factors outside the control of shrimp fishery managers. The quadratic relationship between annual yield and nominal fishing effort exhibited a local maximum of 5.24(107) pounds (≈ MSY) at a nominal fishing effort level of 1.38(105) days fished. However, annual yield showed a continuous increase with decrease in size of shrimp in the landings. Annual inflation-adjusted ex-vessel value of the landings peaked in 1989, preceded by a peak in annual inflation-adjusted ex-vessel value per pound (i.e. price) in 1983. Changes in size composition of shrimp landings and their economic effects should be included among guidelines for future management of this white shrimp

The Ancillary Harvest of Atlantic Menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, Roe on the North Carolina Coast

Gravid Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, are available along the central coast of North Carolina during the fall and are harvested by the purse-seine fleet from the port of Beaufort. Virtually all of the catch, sexually immature fish included, is reduces to fish meal, fish oil, and fish solubles; however, minor quantities of roe from ripening female menhaden are extracted for local consupmtion. Routine and selective port sampling information was used to characterize the seasonal and biostatistical nautre of the roe menhaden catches at Beaufort. Fishermen recognize two size classes of roe Atlantic menhaden: "forerunners," which are usually the smallest and earliest adult menhaden encountered in the Fall Fishery, and "mammy shad," which are the largest menhaden harvested and produce the greatest roe yields. Roe is extracted from femal fish at various points along the reduction process stream and by several techniques. Vessel cremen and factory personnel extract menhaden roe for personal and local consumption. Undetermined quantities of menhaden roe are channeled into local retail seafood markets. Wholesale prices are about $20 per gallon of roe, while retail prices are about $5 per pound. Carteret County, North Carolina, is probably the only area on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts where menhaden roe is sold in retail seafood markets. The potential of extracting menhaden roe for foreign markets is discussed

U. S. Trade in Tuna for Canning, 1987

U.S. tuna fleet activity, canned tuna processing, ex-vessel, wholesale and retail prices and imports in 1987 are described and compared to their counterparts in previous years. Industry statistics gathered from government agencies and industry contacts are presented in 14 figures and 8 tables. In 1987, U.S. tuna fisheries delivered 253,136 short tons (tons) of tuna to U.S. canneries. Domestic deliveries of albacore (white-meat) tuna were 2,836 tons, down 20 percent from 1986 levels. Domestic deliveries of tropical (light-meat) tuna (bigeye, blackfin, bluefin, skipjack, and yellowfin) were 251,000 tons, up 12 percent. Contract prices for tuna delivered by U. S. vessels to U. S. canneries increased dramatically in 1987. Depending on the size of fish in the delivery, ex-vessel prices of white-meat tuna increased as much as 27 percent, and prices of light-meat tuna increased as much as 47 percent. U. S. cannery receipts of imported and domestically caught raw frozen tuna for canning totaled 532,704 tons in 1987, up 2 percent from 1986 levels. U.S. cannery receipts of white-meat tuna were 104,197 tons, down 10 percent from 1986. Imports made up 97 percent of the total cannery supply. Total 1987 U. S. cannery receipts of raw, frozen light meat tuna were 428,507 tons, up 5 percent from 1986 levels. Imports made up 41 percent of the total cannery supply. The 1987 U.S. pack of canned tuna was 33.6 million standard cases, up 3 percent from 1986. The pack of white-meat tuna was 7.2 million standard cases, down 11 percent from 1986; the pack of light-meat tuna was 26.4 million standard cases, up 7 percent. U. S. imports of canned tuna in 1987 were 10.8 million standard cases, down 11 percent from 1986 levels, the first time in recent years that imports have declined. Per capita consumption of canned tuna in the United States was 3.5 pounds in 1987, down slightly from 1986. The retail composite price was $2.26 per pound, unchanged from 1986.

Seafood consumption and supply sources in Hawaii, 2000-2009

Measures of consumption and supply sources of seafood can provide valuable input to research and policy planning of a viable food system. This article fills a gap in the existing literature by mapping the existing seafood supply flows from various sources (local, domestic U.S., and foreign) in Hawaii. The authors trace the seafood transshipment of foreign origin via the continental United States to Hawaii and update total and per capita consumption of seafood more accurately by including noncommercial catches into the analysis. Per capita seafood consumption in Hawaii from all commercial sources is estimated at an annual average of 29 edible pounds during the 10-year period from 2000 to 2009. This is significantly more than the 16 edible pounds for all U.S consumption in 2009. Including noncommercial catch, the same measure increases to 37 edible pounds. The eight-pound differential suggests that noncommercial fishing is an important source of seafood supply in Hawaii. Overall, fresh tuna (Thunnus spp.) is the single largest species group consumed, followed by Pacific and Atlantic salmon (Salmonidae). By edible weight, the majority of Hawaii’s commercial seafood supply comes from foreign sources (57%) vs. local sources (37%), and U.S. domestic sources (6%). The leading sources for Hawaii’s direct seafood imports from 2000 to 2009, were Taiwan, Japan, New Zealand, the Philippines, and the Marshall Islands. Local supply becomes the majority source once noncommercial catch is included with 51% of the total supply.

Ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia: Topic 2 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

In this report we have attempted to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Although our initial approach was to rely on published accounts, we quickly realized that the body of published literature deahng with hypoxia was limited, and we would have to conduct our own exploratory analysis of existing Gulf data, or rely on published accounts from other systems to infer possible or potential effects of hypoxia. For the economic analysis, we developed a conceptual model of how hypoxia-related impacts could affect fisheries. Our model included both supply and demand components. The supply model had two components: (1) a physical production function for fish or shrimp, and (2) the cost of fishing. If hypoxia causes the cost of a unit of fishing effort to change, then this will result in a shift in supply. The demand model considered how hypoxia might affect the quality of landed fish or shrimp. In particular, the market value per pound is lower for small shrimp than for large shrimp. Given the limitations of the ecological assessment, the shallow continental shelf area affected by hypoxia does show signs of hypoxia-related stress. While current ecological conditions are a response to a variety of stressors, the effects of hypoxia are most obvious in the benthos that experience mortality, elimination of larger long-lived species, and a shifting of productivity to nonhypoxic periods (energy pulsing). What is not known is whether hypoxia leads to higher productivity during productive periods, or simply to a reduction of productivity during oxygen-stressed periods. The economic assessment based on fisheries data, however, failed to detect effects attributable to hypoxia. Overall, fisheries landings statistics for at least the last few decades have been relatively constant. The failure to identify clear hypoxic effects in the fisheries statistics does not necessarily mean that they are absent. There are several possibilities: (1) hypoxic effects are small relative to the overall variability in the data sets evaluated; (2) the data and the power of the analyses are not adequate; and (3) currently there are no hypoxic effects on fisheries. Lack of identified hypoxic effects in available fisheries data does not imply that effects would not occur should conditions worsen. Experience with other hypoxic zones around the globe shows that both ecological and fisheries effects become progressively more severe as hypoxia increases. Several large systems around the globe have suffered serious ecological and economic consequences from seasonal summertime hypoxia; most notable are the Kattegat and Black Sea. The consequences range from localized loss of catch and recruitment failure to complete system-wide loss of fishery species. If experiences in other systems are applicable to the Gulf of Mexico, then in the face of worsening hypoxic conditions, at some point fisheries and other species will decline, perhaps precipitously.