Customer expectation study in product development process and its role in strategy formulation

Tämä työ on tehty kansainväliselle metsäteollisuusyritykselle. Työn lähtökohtana oli tarve tutkia yrityksen mahdollisuuksia laajentaa toimintaansa uudelle markkinasegmentille, eläinruokapakkausmarkkinoille. Johtuen maailmanlaajuisesta eläinruoankulutuksen kasvusta, eläinruokapakkaukset ovat yritykselle mielenkiintoinen uusi markkina-alue. Onnistunut markkinoilletulo vaatii asiakastarpeiden ja -odotusten huomioimista tuotekehitys- ja markkinastrategian muodostamisessa. Tämän työn tavoitteena oli selvittää asiakkaiden odotuksia eläinruokapakkauksille, sekä mallintaa alalla vallitsevia ostoprosesseja. Asiakastarvetutkimus suunniteltiin perustuen kirjallisuuteen ja alustaviin markkina- ja asiakasanalyyseihin. Alustavat analyysit ovat tarpeellisia lähtötilanteen ja trendien selvittämiseksi. Itse tutkimus toteutettiin semi-konstruktoituna teemahaastatteluna. Haastateltavat edustivat USA:n ja Euroopan johtavia eläinruokavalmistajia ja pakkausten jatkojalostajia. Työn tuloksena saatiin yksityiskohtaista tietoa asiakkaiden odotuksista eläinruokapakkauksille, paperin ominaisuuksille ja paperitoimittajille. Lisäksi mallinnettiin ostoprosesseja paperitoimittajien, pakkausten jalostajien ja eläinruokavalmistajien välillä. Tulosten perusteella on analysoitu yrityksen mahdollisuuksia menestyä uudella markkinasegmentillä. Lisäksi työssä annettiin ehdotuksia tuotekehitys- ja markkinastrategian muodostamiseen.

Reputational Risk Management as a key element for business continuity and value maximization

This thesis reveals the topic of reputational risk management as a key element for business continuity and value maximization. The purpose of the work is to investigate reputational risk from the side of its definition, management (including legal requirements on this risk category) and measurement and to analyse reputational risk’s impact on business continuity and value maximization. To be able to do this, different respective articles, reports of financial institutions are gathered and constructive summaries and analysis are made. In order to deeply investigate the impact of reputational risk on business continuity and value maximization, it was chosen to study it from three aspects: 1) check the impact of stock valuation of 7 companies that experienced reputational catastrophe / risk, 2) analyse a case study on disagreements in management of reputational risk among case companies and impact on their respective performance, and 3) conduct a survey of financial sector companies in Liechtenstein to see how reputational risk management works in practice. The findings of the research showed a significant impact of reputation decadence on company’s value and trading volume, and showed crucial importance of post-crisis management for the company’s financial performance. The results of the qualitative research based on survey proved that companies consider reputational risk management as a one of the key elements for their business continuity and value maximization.

“This wasn’t supposed to happen” : making sense of emotions in the face of expectation breach

Des recherches antérieures sur les émotions en contexte organisationnel, notamment autour des notions de travail émotionnel, de contrat psychologique et d'équité, ont souvent soulevé la question de la rationalité et du caractère approprié ou non des manifestations émotionnelles, ainsi que sur les mécanismes utilisés pour contrôler et modérer celles-ci. Cependant, peu de recherche empirique a été effectuée sur la façon dont les employés eux-mêmes font sens de leurs émotions au travail et le processus par lequel ils parviennent à rendre celle-ci compréhensibles et légitimes, à la fois pour eux-mêmes et pour autrui. Au cours des dernières années, un courant de recherche émergent tend toutefois à mettre de côté la perspective normative / rationaliste pour soulever ce type de questions. Ainsi, au lieu d'être considérées comme des expériences strictement subjectives, privées, voire inaccessibles, les émotions y sont envisagées à travers les discours et les mises en récits dont elles font l’objet. Les émotions apparaissent ainsi non seulement exprimées dans le langage et la communication, mais construites et négociées à travers eux. La recherche présente développe empiriquement cette perspective émergente, notamment en faisant appel aux théories du sensemaking et de la narration, à travers l’analyse détaillée des récits de quatre employés chargés du soutien à la vente pour un revendeur de produits informatiques. En demandant à mes sujets de parler de leurs expériences émotionnelles et en analysant leurs réponses selon une méthodologie d’analyse narrative, cette recherche explore ainsi la façon dont les employés parviennent à construire le sens et la légitimité de leurs expériences émotionnelles. Les résultats suggèrent entre autres que ces processus de construction de sens sont très étroitement liés aux enjeux d’identité et de rôle.

Inclusive fitness maximization: an axiomatic approach

Kin selection theorists argue that evolution in social contexts will lead organisms to behave as if maximizing their inclusive, as opposed to personal, fitness. The inclusive fitness concept allows biologists to treat organisms as akin to rational agents seeking to maximize a utility function. Here we develop this idea and place it on a firm footing by employing a standard decision-theoretic methodology. We show how the principle of inclusive fitness maximization and a related principle of quasi-inclusive fitness maximization can be derived from axioms on an individual’s ‘as if preferences’ (binary choices). Our results help integrate evolutionary theory and rational choice theory, help draw out the behavioural implications of inclusive fitness maximization, and point to a possible way in which evolution could lead organisms to implement it.

Alignment by Maximization of Mutual Information

A new information-theoretic approach is presented for finding the pose of an object in an image. The technique does not require information about the surface properties of the object, besides its shape, and is robust with respect to variations of illumination. In our derivation, few assumptions are made about the nature of the imaging process. As a result the algorithms are quite general and can foreseeably be used in a wide variety of imaging situations. Experiments are presented that demonstrate the approach registering magnetic resonance (MR) images with computed tomography (CT) images, aligning a complex 3D object model to real scenes including clutter and occlusion, tracking a human head in a video sequence and aligning a view-based 2D object model to real images. The method is based on a formulation of the mutual information between the model and the image called EMMA. As applied here the technique is intensity-based, rather than feature-based. It works well in domains where edge or gradient-magnitude based methods have difficulty, yet it is more robust than traditional correlation. Additionally, it has an efficient implementation that is based on stochastic approximation. Finally, we will describe a number of additional real-world applications that can be solved efficiently and reliably using EMMA. EMMA can be used in machine learning to find maximally informative projections of high-dimensional data. EMMA can also be used to detect and correct corruption in magnetic resonance images (MRI).

The Peruvian Citizen Perception and Expectation toward the e-Government. The Electronic Tax Payment Successful e-Gov Project

En este capítulo, los autores tratan de demostrar como los gobierno latinoamericanos, específicamente el peruano, evalúan los esfuerzos que realizan en la implementación de iniciativas de gobierno electrónico, identificando las expectativas que tienen los ciudadanos frente a estas iniciativas y como las perciben, aplicando un modelo de evaluación al servicio de  pago electrónico de impuestos implementado como una iniciativa exitosa en Latinoamérica. El modelo propuesto fue desarrollado por uno de los autores como parte de su tesis doctoral y evaluado por el otro como jurado en el tribunal de la misma. Incluye cinco constructos latentes independientes, actitud, aptitud, confianza, relevancia y satisfacción que afecta a dos constructos latentes dependientes, la percepción y la expectativa frente a su relación con la administración pública vía el uso de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones – TIC, bajo el efecto de variables ilustrativas relacionadas con los ciudadanos, las instituciones y el contexto.

"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

The accuracy of valuations: expectation and reality

The relationship between valuations and the subsequent sale price continues to be a matter of both theoretical and practical interest. This paper reports the analysis of over 700 property sales made during the 1974/90 period. Initial results imply an average under-valuation of 7% and a standard error of 18% across the sample. A number of techniques are applied to the data set using other variables such as the region, the type of property and the return from the market to explain the difference between the valuation and the subsequent sale price. The analysis reduces the unexplained error; the bias is fully accounted for and the standard error is reduced to 15.3%. This model finds that about 6% of valuations over-estimated the sale price by more than 20% and about 9% of the valuations under-estimated the sale prices by more than 20%. The results suggest that valuations are marginally more accurate than might be expected, both from consideration of theoretical considerations and from comparison with the equivalent valuation in equity markets.

Expectation versus provision in the management and use of urban open space

This paper discusses the implications of the shifting cultural significance of public open space in urban areas. In particular, it focuses on the increasing dysfunction between people's expectations of that space and its actual provision and management. In doing so, the paper applies Lefebvre's ideas of spatiality to the evident paradigm shift from 'public' to 'private' culture, with its associated commodification of previously public space. While developing the construct of paradigm shift, the paper recognises that the former political notions inherent in the provision of public space remain in evidence. So whereas public parks were formerly seen as spaces of confrontation between the 'rationality' of public order as the 'irrationality' of individual leisure pursuits, they are now increasingly seen, particularly 'out of hours', as the domain of the dispossessed, to be defined and policed as 'dangerous'. Where once people were welcomed into public open spaces as a means of 'educating' them in good, acceptable, leisure practices, therefore, they are now increasingly excluded, but for the same ostensible reasons. Building on survey work undertaken in Reading, Berkshire, the paper illustrates how communities can become separated from 'their' space, leaving them with the overriding impression that they have been 'short-changed' in terms of both the provision and the management of urban open space. Rather than the intimacy of local space for local people, therefore, the paper argues that parks have become externalised places, increasingly responding to commercial definitions of culture and what is 'public'. Central urban open spaces are therefore increasingly becoming sites of stratification, signification of a consumer-constructed citizenship and valorisation of public life as a legitimate element of the market surface of town and city centres.

Multi-level planning for semi-autonomous vehicles in traffic scenarios based on separation maximization

The planning of semi-autonomous vehicles in traffic scenarios is a relatively new problem that contributes towards the goal of making road travel by vehicles free of human drivers. An algorithm needs to ensure optimal real time planning of multiple vehicles (moving in either direction along a road), in the presence of a complex obstacle network. Unlike other approaches, here we assume that speed lanes are not present and that different lanes do not need to be maintained for inbound and outbound traffic. Our basic hypothesis is to carry forward the planning task to ensure that a sufficient distance is maintained by each vehicle from all other vehicles, obstacles and road boundaries. We present here a 4-layer planning algorithm that consists of road selection (for selecting the individual roads of traversal to reach the goal), pathway selection (a strategy to avoid and/or overtake obstacles, road diversions and other blockages), pathway distribution (to select the position of a vehicle at every instance of time in a pathway), and trajectory generation (for generating a curve, smooth enough, to allow for the maximum possible speed). Cooperation between vehicles is handled separately at the different levels, the aim being to maximize the separation between vehicles. Simulated results exhibit behaviours of smooth, efficient and safe driving of vehicles in multiple scenarios; along with typical vehicle behaviours including following and overtaking.

Interpretation and expectation in childhood anxiety disorders: age effects and social specificity

Theory and treatment for childhood anxiety disorders typically implicates children’s negative cognitions, yet little is known about the characteristics of thinking styles of clinically anxious children. In particular, it is unclear whether differences in thinking styles between children with anxiety disorders and non-anxious children vary as a function of child age, whether particular cognitive distortions are associated with childhood anxiety disorders at different child ages, and whether cognitive content is disorder-specific. The current study addressed these questions among 120 7 - 12 year old children (53% female) who met diagnostic criteria for social anxiety disorder, other anxiety disorder, or who were not currently anxious. Contrary to expectations, threat interpretation was not inflated amongst anxious compared to non-anxious children at any age, although older (10 - 12 year old) anxious children did differ from non-anxious children on measures of perceived coping. The notion of cognitive-content specificity was not supported across the age-range. The findings challenge current treatment models of childhood anxiety, and suggest that a focus on changing anxious children’s cognitions is not warranted in mid-childhood, and in late childhood cognitive approaches may be better focussed on promoting children’s perceptions of control rather than challenging threat interpretations.

Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change

This paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic 1 qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.

Time-series-based maximization of distributed wind power generation integration

Energy policies and technological progress in the development of wind turbines have made wind power the fastest growing renewable power source worldwide. The inherent variability of this resource requires special attention when analyzing the impacts of high penetration on the distribution network. A time-series steady-state analysis is proposed that assesses technical issues such as energy export, losses, and short-circuit levels. A multiobjective programming approach based on the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA) is applied in order to find configurations that maximize the integration of distributed wind power generation (DWPG) while satisfying voltage and thermal limits. The approach has been applied to a medium voltage distribution network considering hourly demand and wind profiles for part of the U.K. The Pareto optimal solutions obtained highlight the drawbacks of using a single demand and generation scenario, and indicate the importance of appropriate substation voltage settings for maximizing the connection of MPG.