Reliability evaluation of distribution systems considering automatic reclosers

This paper presents a new methodology to evaluate in a predictive way the reliability of distribution systems, considering the impact of automatic recloser switches. The developed algorithm is based on state enumeration techniques with Markovian models and on the minimal cut set theory. Some computational aspects related with the implementation of the proposed algorithm in typical distribution networks are also discussed. The description of the proposed approach is carried out using a sample test system. The results obtained with a typical configuration of a Brazilian system (EDP Bandeirante Energia S.A.) are presented and discussed.

Network reconfiguration and loss allocation in a deregulated environment of distribution systems

Low flexibility and reliability in the operation of radial distribution networks make those systems be constructed with extra equipment as sectionalising switches in order to reconfigure the network, so the operation quality of the network can be improved. Thus, sectionalising switches are used for fault isolation and for configuration management (reconfiguration). Moreover, distribution systems are being impacted by the increasing insertion of distributed generators. Hence, distributed generation became one of the relevant parameters in the evaluation of systems reconfiguration. Distributed generation may affect distribution networks operation in various ways, causing noticeable impacts depending on its location. Thus, the loss allocation problem becomes more important considering the possibility of open access to the distribution networks. In this work, a graphic simulator for distribution networks with reconfiguration and loss allocation functions, is presented. Reconfiguration problem is solved through a heuristic methodology, using a robust power flow algorithm based on the current summation backward-forward technique, considering distributed generation. Four different loss allocation methods (Zbus, Direct Loss Coefficient, Substitution and Marginal Loss Coefficient) are implemented and compared. Results for a 32-bus medium voltage distribution network, are presented and discussed.

Estimation of electrical machine speed using sensorless technology and neural networks

The use of sensorless technologies is an increasing tendency on industrial drivers for electrical machines. The estimation of electrical and mechanical parameters involved with the electrical machine control is used very frequently in order to avoid measurement of all variables related to this process. The cost reduction may also be considered in industrial drivers, besides the increasing robustness of the system, as an advantage of the use of sensorless technologies. This work proposes the use of a recurrent artificial neural network to estimate the speed of induction motor for sensorless control schemes using one single current sensor. Simulation and experimental results are presented to validate the proposed approach. ©2008 IEEE.

An efficient implementation of tabu search in feeder reconfiguration of distribution systems

This paper presents an efficient tabu search algorithm (TSA) to solve the problem of feeder reconfiguration of distribution systems. The main characteristics that make the proposed TSA particularly efficient are a) the way in which the neighborhood of the current solution was defined; b) the way in which the objective function value was estimated; and c) the reduction of the neighborhood using heuristic criteria. Four electrical systems, described in detail in the specialized literature, were used to test the proposed TSA. The result demonstrate that it is computationally very fast and finds the best solutions known in the specialized literature. © 2012 IEEE.

Estimation of croplands using indicator kriging and fuzzy classification

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Analysis of the Dielectric Behavior of Distribution Insulators Under Non-Standard Lightning Impulses Voltages

Overhead distribution lines are often exposed to lightning overvoltages, whose waveforms vary widely and can differ substantially from the standard impulse voltage waveform (1,2 - 50). Different models have been proposed for predicting the strength of insulation subjected to impulses of non-standard waveforms. One of the most commonly used is the disruptive effect model, for which there are different methods for the estimation of the parameters required for its application. This paper aims at evaluating the dielectric behavior of medium voltage insulators subjected to impulses of non-standard waveforms, as well as at evaluating two methods for predicting their dielectric strength against such impulses. The test results relative to the critical lightning impulse flashover voltage (U50) and the volt-time characteristics obtained for the positive and negative polarities of different voltage waveforms are presented and discussed.

Nonlinear estimation of neural processing time from BOLD signal with application to decision-making

The extraction of information about neural activity timing from BOLD signal is a challenging task as the shape of the BOLD curve does not directly reflect the temporal characteristics of electrical activity of neurons. In this work, we introduce the concept of neural processing time (NPT) as a parameter of the biophysical model of the hemodynamic response function (HRF). Through this new concept we aim to infer more accurately the duration of neuronal response from the highly nonlinear BOLD effect. The face validity and applicability of the concept of NPT are evaluated through simulations and analysis of experimental time series. The results of both simulation and application were compared with summary measures of HRF shape. The experiment that was analyzed consisted of a decision-making paradigm with simultaneous emotional distracters. We hypothesize that the NPT in primary sensory areas, like the fusiform gyrus, is approximately the stimulus presentation duration. On the other hand, in areas related to processing of an emotional distracter, the NPT should depend on the experimental condition. As predicted, the NPT in fusiform gyrus is close to the stimulus duration and the NPT in dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus depends on the presence of an emotional distracter. Interestingly, the NPT in right but not left dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex depends on the stimulus emotional content. The summary measures of HRF obtained by a standard approach did not detect the variations observed in the NPT. Hum Brain Mapp, 2012. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimation of lung vital capacity before and after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery: a comparison of incentive spirometer and ventilometry

Abstract Background Measurement of vital capacity (VC) by spirometry is the most widely used technique for lung function evaluation, however, this form of assessment is costly and further investigation of other reliable methods at lower cost is necessary. Objective: To analyze the correlation between direct vital capacity measured with ventilometer and with incentive inspirometer in patients in pre and post cardiac surgery. Methodology Cross-sectional comparative study with patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Respiratory parameters were evaluated through the measurement of VC performed by ventilometer and inspirometer. To analyze data normality the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied, for correlation the Pearson correlation coefficient was used and for comparison of variables in pre and post operative period Student's t test was adopted. We established a level of ignificance of 5%. Data was presented as an average, standard deviation and relative frequency when needed. The significance level was set at 5%. Results We studied 52 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, 20 patients in preoperative with VC-ventilometer: 32.95 ± 11.4 ml/kg and VC-inspirometer: 28.9 ± 11 ml/Kg, r = 0.7 p < 0.001. In the post operatory, 32 patients were evaluated with VC-ventilometer: 28.27 ± 12.48 ml/kg and VC-inspirometer: 26.98 ± 11 ml/Kg, r = 0.95 p < 0.001. Presenting a very high correlation between the evaluation forms studied. Conclusion There was a high correlation between DVC measures with ventilometer and incentive spirometer in pre and post CABG surgery. Despite this, arises the necessity of further studies to evaluate the repercussion of this method in lowering costs at hospitals.

Direct estimation of the backward flow

[EN] The aim of this work is to propose a new method for estimating the backward flow directly from the optical flow. We assume that the optical flow has already been computed and we need to estimate the inverse mapping. This mapping is not bijective due to the presence of occlusions and disocclusions, therefore it is not possible to estimate the inverse function in the whole domain. Values in these regions has to be guessed from the available information. We propose an accurate algorithm to calculate the backward flow uniquely from the optical flow, using a simple relation. Occlusions are filled by selecting the maximum motion and disocclusions are filled with two different strategies: a min-fill strategy, which fills each disoccluded region with the minimum value around the region; and a restricted min-fill approach that selects the minimum value in a close neighborhood. In the experimental results, we show the accuracy of the method and compare the results using these two strategies.

Non-parametric estimation of the diffusion coefficient of a branching diffusion with immigration

Wir betrachten Systeme von endlich vielen Partikeln, wobei die Partikel sich unabhängig voneinander gemäß eindimensionaler Diffusionen [dX_t = b(X_t),dt + sigma(X_t),dW_t] bewegen. Die Partikel sterben mit positionsabhängigen Raten und hinterlassen eine zufällige Anzahl an Nachkommen, die sich gemäß eines Übergangskerns im Raum verteilen. Zudem immigrieren neue Partikel mit einer konstanten Rate. Ein Prozess mit diesen Eigenschaften wird Verzweigungsprozess mit Immigration genannt. Beobachten wir einen solchen Prozess zu diskreten Zeitpunkten, so ist zunächst nicht offensichtlich, welche diskret beobachteten Punkte zu welchem Pfad gehören. Daher entwickeln wir einen Algorithmus, um den zugrundeliegenden Pfad zu rekonstruieren. Mit Hilfe dieses Algorithmus konstruieren wir einen nichtparametrischen Schätzer für den quadrierten Diffusionskoeffizienten $sigma^2(cdot),$ wobei die Konstruktion im Wesentlichen auf dem Auffüllen eines klassischen Regressionsschemas beruht. Wir beweisen Konsistenz und einen zentralen Grenzwertsatz.

The Estimation of the Ecological Condition of the City Environment by Methods of Phytoindication (as Applied to the Vasileostrovsky District of St. Petersburg)

The project aimed to use results of contamination of city vegetation with heavy metals and sulphur compounds as the basis for analysing the integral response of trees and shrubs to contamination, through a complex method of phytoindication. The results were used to draw up recommendations on pollution reduction in the city and to develop the method of phytoindication as a means of monitoring environmental pollution in St. Petersburg and other large cities. Field investigations were carried out in August 1996, and 66 descriptions of green areas were made in order to estimate the functional state of plants in the Vasileostrovsky district. Investigations of the spectrum reflecting properties of plants showed considerable variation of albedo meanings of leaves under the influence of various internal and external factors. The results indicated that lime trees most closely reflect the condition of the environment. Practically all the green areas studied were in poor condition, the only exceptions being areas of ash trees, which are more resistant to environmental pollution, and one lime-tree alley in a comparatively unpolluted street. The study identified those types of trees which are more or less resistant to complex environmental pollution and Ms. Terekhina recommends that the species in the present green areas be changed to include a higher number of the more resistant species. The turbidimetric analysis of tree barks for sulphates gave an indication of the level and spatial distribution of each pollutant, and the results also confirmed other findings that electric conductivity is a significant feature in determining the extent of sulphate pollution. In testing for various metals, the lime tree showed the highest contents for all elements except magnesium, copper, zinc, cadmium and strontium, again confirming the species' vulnerability to pollution. Medium rates of concentration in the city and environs showed that city plants concentrate 3 times as many different elements and 10 times more chromium, copper and lead than do those in the suburbs. The second stage of the study was based on the concept of phytoindication, which presupposes that changes in the relation of chemical elements in regional biological circulation under the influence of technogenesis provide a criterion for predicting displacements in people's health. There are certain basic factors in this concept. The first is that all living beings are related ecologically as well as by their evolutionary origin, and that the lower an organism is on the evolutionary scale, the less adaptational reserve it has. The second is that smaller concentrations of chemical elements are needed for toxicological influence on plants than on people and so the former's reactions to geochemical factors are easier to characterise. Visual indicational features of urban plants are well defined and can form the basis of a complex "environment - public health" analysis. Specific plant reactions reflecting atmospheric pollution and other components of urbogeosystems make it possible to determine indication criteria for predicting possible disturbances in the general state of health of the population. Thirdly the results of phytoindication investigations must be taken together with information about public health in the area. It only proved possibly to analyse general indexes of public health based on statistical data from the late 1980s and early 1990s as the data of later years were greatly influenced by social factors. These data show that the rates of illness in St. Petersburg (especially for children) are higher than in Russia as a whole, for most classes of diseases, indicating that the population there is more sensitive to the ecological state of the urban environment. The Vasileostrovsky district had the second highest sick rate for adullts, while the rate of infant mortality in the first year of life was highest there. Ms. Terekhina recommends further studies to more precisely assess the effectiveness of the methods she tested, but has drawn up a proposed map of environmental hazard for the population, taking into account prevailing wind directions.

Smooth Estimation of a Monotone Density

We investigate the interplay of smoothness and monotonicity assumptions when estimating a density from a sample of observations. The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a decreasing density on the positive half line attains a rate of convergence at a fixed point if the density has a negative derivative. The same rate is obtained by a kernel estimator, but the limit distributions are different. If the density is both differentiable and known to be monotone, then a third estimator is obtained by isotonization of a kernel estimator. We show that this again attains the rate of convergence and compare the limit distributors of the three types of estimators. It is shown that both isotonization and smoothing lead to a more concentrated limit distribution and we study the dependence on the proportionality constant in the bandwidth. We also show that isotonization does not change the limit behavior of a kernel estimator with a larger bandwidth, in the case that the density is known to have more than one derivative.

Estimation of Transition Probabilities in Animal Carcinogenicity Experiments

This paper discusses estimation of the tumor incidence rate, the death rate given tumor is present and the death rate given tumor is absent using a discrete multistage model. The model was originally proposed by Dewanji and Kalbfleisch (1986) and the maximum likelihood estimate of the tumor incidence rate was obtained using EM algorithm. In this paper, we use a reparametrization to simplify the estimation procedure. The resulting estimates are not always the same as the maximum likelihood estimates but are asymptotically equivalent. In addition, an explicit expression for asymptotic variance and bias of the proposed estimators is also derived. These results can be used to compare efficiency of different sacrifice schemes in carcinogenicity experiments.

Gauss-Seidel Estimation of Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Poisson Modeling of Spatially Varying Disease Rates

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide an elegant framework for the analysis of correlated data. Due to the non-closed form of the likelihood, GLMMs are often fit by computational procedures like penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL). Special cases of these models are generalized linear models (GLMs), which are often fit using algorithms like iterative weighted least squares (IWLS). High computational costs and memory space constraints often make it difficult to apply these iterative procedures to data sets with very large number of cases. This paper proposes a computationally efficient strategy based on the Gauss-Seidel algorithm that iteratively fits sub-models of the GLMM to subsetted versions of the data. Additional gains in efficiency are achieved for Poisson models, commonly used in disease mapping problems, because of their special collapsibility property which allows data reduction through summaries. Convergence of the proposed iterative procedure is guaranteed for canonical link functions. The strategy is applied to investigate the relationship between ischemic heart disease, socioeconomic status and age/gender category in New South Wales, Australia, based on outcome data consisting of approximately 33 million records. A simulation study demonstrates the algorithm's reliability in analyzing a data set with 12 million records for a (non-collapsible) logistic regression model.