An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Environmental Awareness in Game Agents

Agents make up an important part of game worlds, ranging from the characters and monsters that live in the world to the armies the player controls. Despite their importance, agents in current games rarely display an awareness of their environment or react appropriately, which severely detracts from the believability of the game. Most games use agents that have a basic awareness of the player and other agents, but are still unaware of important game events or environmental conditions. This article describes an agent design that combines cellular automata for environmental modeling with influence maps for agent decision-making. The result is simple, flexible game agents that are able to respond to dynamic changes to the environment (e.g., rain or fire) while pursuing a goal.

Corporate social and environmental responsibility in relation to the agricultural sector and the food supply chain : a Case Study of Waitrose

Waitrose has a strong commitment to organic farming but also uses products from 'conventional' farms. At the production stage, Waitrose own-label products are fully traceable, GM-free and all suppliers undergo a detailed assessment programme based on current best practice. Crop suppliers to Waitrose operate an authenticity programme to certify that each assignment is GM-free and produce is screened for pesticide residues. Waitrose sources conventional crops grown from 'Integrated Crop Management Systems' (ICMS) using best horticultural practices. The 'Assured Product' scheme regulates all UK produce to ICMS standards and these audits are being extended worldwide. Business is withdrawn from suppliers who fail the audit. In relation to this, Waitrose has increased its Fairtrade range as in its view 'Buying these products provides direct additional benefit to workers in the developing countries where they are produced and assists marginal producers by giving them access to markets they would not otherwise have'. Currently, Waitrose is developing its own sustainable timber assessment criteria. For livestock, protocols are in place to ensure that animals are reared under the 'most natural conditions possible' and free range produce is offered where animals have access to open space although some produce is not from free-range animals. Waitrose also use a 'Hazards Analysis Critical Points' system to identify food safety hazards that occur at any stage from production to point of sale and to ensure that full measures are in place to control them. In addition, mechanisms have been implemented to reduce fuel use and hence reduce CO2 emissions in the transport of products and staff, and to increase the energy use efficiency of refrigeration systems which account for approximately 60% of Waitrose energy use.

Environmental reporting in the Australian mining industry : complying with regulation or meeting international best practice?

It is nearly 10 years since the introduction of s 299(1)(f) Corporations Act , which requires the disclosure of information regarding a company's environmental performance within its annual report. This provision has generated considerable debate in the years since its introduction, fundamentally between proponents of either a voluntary or mandatory environmental reporting framework. This study examines the adequacy of the current regulatory framework. The environmental reporting practices of 24 listed companies in the resources industries are assessed relative to a standard set by the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) Sustainability Reporting Guidelines. These Guidelines are argued to represent "international best practice" in environmental reporting and a "scorecard" approach is used to score the quality of disclosure according to this voluntary benchmark. Larger companies in the sample tend to report environmental information over and above the level required by legislation. Some, but not all companies present a stand-alone environmental/sustainability report. However, smaller companies provide minimal information in compliance with s 299(1)(f) . The findings indicate that "international best practice" environmental reporting is unlikely to be achieved by Australian companies under the current regulatory framework. In the current regulatory environment that scrutinises s 299(1)(f) , this article provides some preliminary evidence of the quality of disclosures generated in the Australian market.

Managing intensified urban development and industrial uses in Qld : affected area notations

The Queensland government planning policies actively encourage increased dwelling density, sustainable infill development and transit oriented development to maximise land use and minimise urban sprawl. One of the detriments of such a policy is the potential for intensified residential development to create conflict between lawfully operating existing industrial uses and residences. In particular the government is concerned that intensified urban development will increase the risk of litigation from landowners and tenants detrimentally affected by the emission of aerosols, fumes, light, noise, odour, particles or smoke from existing industrial premises.

Detaining the usual suspects : charting the use of segregated settings in New South Wales government schools, Australia

In this paper, we examine the increase in segregated placements in the New South Wales government school sector. Using disaggregated enrolment data, we point to the growing over-representation of boys in special schools and classes; particularly those of a certain age in certain support categories. In the discussion that follows, we question the role of special education in the development of new and additional forms of being “at risk.” In effect, we invert the traditional concept by asking: Who is at risk of what? In focusing on the containment of risk, are modern practices of diagnosis and segregation perpetuating risks that already disproportionately affect certain groups of individuals? Do these perceptions of and responses to risk in local schools now place these students at greater personal risk of school failure and a future marked by social exclusion? And, finally, is that risk worth the cost?

Embedding environmental sustainability in the undergraduate chemistry curriculum : a case study

In spite of increasing attention devoted to the importance of embedding sustainability in university curricula, few Australian universities include specific green chemistry units, and there is no mention of green or sustainable chemistry concepts in the majority of units. In this paper, an argument is posited that all universities should embed sustainable chemistry within all Chemistry courses because it is the morally correct stance to minimise the harm of climate change. Attitudes of chemistry lecturers towards integrating sustainability into their teaching have been probed and it was found, using an established model, that personal environmental perspectives are critical to their attitude. Importantly, academic staff whose research has an environmental component were more likely to incorporate sustainability into their teaching while others struggled to find ways to do so even when they believed it to be important. This paper will recommend that resources are required to assist academic staff without a green chemistry research program to incorporate sustainability into their teaching and several suggestions are provided.

Environmental incidents in a developing country and corporate environmental disclosures : a study of a multinational gas company

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the environmental disclosure initiatives of Niko Resources Ltd – a Canada-based multinational oil and gas company – following the two major environmental blowouts at a gas field in Bangladesh in 2005. As part of the examination, the authors particularly focus on whether Niko's disclosure strategy was associated with public concern pertaining to the blowouts. Design/methodology/approach – The authors reviewed news articles about Niko's environmental incidents in Bangladesh and Niko's communication media, including annual reports, press releases and stand-alone social responsibility report over the period 2004-2007, to understand whether news media attention as proxy for public concern has an impact on Niko's disclosure practices in relation to the affected local community in Bangladesh. Findings – The findings show that Niko did not provide any non-financial environmental information within its annual reports and press releases as a part of its responsibility to the local community which was affected by the blowouts, but it did produce a stand-alone report to address the issue. However, financial environmental disclosures, such as the environmental contingent liability disclosure, were adequately provided through annual reports to meet the regulatory requirements concerning environmental persecutions. The findings also suggest that Niko's non-financial disclosure within a stand-alone report was associated with the public pressures as measured by negative media coverage towards the Niko blowouts. Research limitations/implications – This paper concludes that the motive for Niko's non-financial environmental disclosure, via a stand-alone report, reflected survival considerations: the company's reaction did not suggest any real attempt to hold broader accountability for its activities in a developing country.

Measurement of environmental constructs in disability assessment instruments

The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) assumes a biopsychosocial basis for disability and provides a framework for understanding how environmental factors contribute to the experience of disability. To determine the utility of prevalent disability assessment instruments, the authors examined the extent to which a range of such instruments addressed the impact of environmental factors on the individual and whether the instruments designed for different disability groups focused differentially on the environment. Items from 20 widely used disability assessment instruments were linked to the five chapters of the ICF environment component using standardized classification rules. Nineteen of the 20 instruments reviewed measured the environment to varying degrees. It was determined that environmental factors from the Natural Environment and Attitudes chapters were not well accommodated by the majority of instruments. Instruments developed for people with intellectual disabilities had the greatest environmental coverage. Only one instrument provided a relatively comprehensive and economical account of environmental barriers. The authors conclude that ICF classification of environmental factors provides a valuable resource for evaluating the environmental content of existing disability-related instruments, and that it may also provide a useful framework for revising instruments in use and for developing future disability assessment instruments.

Cost-effectiveness of a telephone-delivered education programme to prevent early childhood caries in a disadvantaged area : a cohort study

Objectives Early childhood caries is a highly destructive dental disease which is compounded by the need for young children to be treated under general anaesthesia. In Australia, there are long waiting periods for treatment at public hospitals. In this paper, we examined the costs and patient outcomes of a prevention programme for early childhood caries to assess its value for government services. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. Setting Public dental patients in a low socioeconomic, socially disadvantaged area in the State of Queensland, Australia. Participants Children aged 6 months to 6 years received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Primary and secondary outcome measures A mathematical model was used to assess caries incidence and public dental treatment costs for a cohort of children. Healthcare costs, treatment probabilities and caries incidence were modelled from 6 months to 6 years of age based on trial data from mothers and their children who received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the findings to uncertainty in the model estimates. Results By age 6 years, the telephone intervention programme had prevented an estimated 43 carious teeth and saved £69 984 in healthcare costs per 100 children. The results were sensitive to the cost of general anaesthesia (cost-savings range £36 043–£97 298) and the incidence of caries in the prevention group (cost-savings range £59 496–£83 368) and usual care (cost-savings range £46 833–£93 328), but there were cost savings in all scenarios. Conclusions A telephone intervention that aims to prevent early childhood caries is likely to generate considerable and immediate patient benefits and cost savings to the public dental health service in disadvantaged communities.

The interface of acute and aged care : the role of the nurse in a provincial area

Objective This study was to investigate issues that arose from pre-admission to post-discharge, for people in Toowoomba, Queensland over the age of 65 admitted to an acute facility. This paper concentrates on a significant concern that emerged from the large amount of data collected during this project, that is,the role of the nurse in the continuum of health care involving elderly people. Method The study involved a multi-site, multi-agency and multi-method (qualitative and quantitative) approach. Data was collected from regional service providers, the Department of Health and Aged Care (DHAC), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Home and Community Care (HACC), the Aged Care Assessment Team (ACAT), elderly people who had been discharged from regional hospitals and their carers, residents of regional aged care facilities, area health professionals and elderly regional hospital inpatients. Results The data indicated that nurses in this provincial area currently play a limited role in preadmission planning, being mostly concerned with elective surgery, especially joint replacements. While nurses deliver the majority of care during hospitalisation, they do not appear to be cognizant of the needs of the elderly regarding post-acute discharge. Conclusion The recent introduction of the model of nurse case management in the acute sector appears to be a positive development that will streamline and optimise the health care of the elderly across the continuum in the Toowoomba area. The paper recommends some strategies, such as discharge liaison nurses based in Emergency Departments and the expansion of the nurse case management role, which would optimise care for the elderly person at the interface of care.

Estimating the burden of malignant neoplasm on village residents in a mountainous area [山区农村居民恶性肿瘤疾病负担的估计]

Objective To make a comprehensive estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasm on village residents in Linqu County by the means of DALY (Disability-adjusted life year). Methods DALYs, YLLs and YLDs were calculated following the procedures developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to ensure comparability, based on the cancer registration data of Linqu villages during 1998-2004, in order to measure the burden of various caners. Results All cancers were responsible for 20.00 DALYs for every thousand population in Linqu County (24.82 for men and 14.96 for women). 92.5% of the losses were due to premature death and 7.5% to disability. 31.5% of the DALYs happened among 45-59 age group. The top 10 cancers for DALYs were stomach cancer, lung cancer, liver cancer, oesophagus cancer, leukemia,colon/rectum cancer, brain cancer, pancreas cancer, breast cancer and bone cancer in turn. Only stomach cancer, lung cancer and liver cancer together account for 69.3% of total DALYs due to malignant neoplasm. The burden of malignant neoplasm was on rising recent years. Conclusions The burden of disease of malignant neoplasm is mainly because of premature death. Stomach cancer, lung cancer and liver cancer lead to heavier burden than the global and national levels. Abstract in Chinese 目的 应用伤残调整寿命年(DALY)对临朐县农村恶性肿瘤疾病负担进行评价. 方法 以1998～2004年临朐县农村肿瘤登记资料为基础,利用全球疾病负担研究中使用的专门公式计算恶性肿瘤的YLLs、YLDs和DALYs,以此评价各类恶性肿瘤的疾病负担. 结果 临朐农村每千人每年因恶性肿瘤造成20.0个DALYs损失(男性24.82,女性14.96),其中92.5%为早死所致,7.5%因残疾所致;恶性肿瘤主要导致45～59岁人群的DALYs损失,占31.5%;恶性肿瘤疾病负担前10位依次为胃癌、肺癌、肝癌、食道癌、白血病、肠癌、脑癌、胰腺癌、乳腺癌和骨癌,其中仅胃癌、肺癌和肝癌三大肿瘤DALYs就占全部肿瘤的69.3%;临朐县农村恶性肿瘤疾病负担有进一步上升的趋势. 结论 恶性肿瘤疾病负担主要由早死所致,胃癌、肺癌、肝癌等主要癌症疾病负担高于全球和中国区水平.

Assessing exposures to emerging environmental contaminants in children

The period of developmental vulnerability to toxicants begins at conception and extends through gestation, parturition, infanthood and childhood to adolescence. The concern is that children: (1) may experience quantitatively and qualitatively different exposures, and (2) may have different sensitivity to chemical pollutants. Traditional toxicological studies are inappropriate for assessing the results of chronic exposure at very low levels during critical periods of development. This paper will discuss (1) the health effects associated with exposure to selected emerging organic pollutants, including brominated flame retardants, perfluorinated compounds, organophosphate pesticides and bisphenol A; (2) difficulties in monitoring these substances in children, and (3) suggest techniques and strategies for overcoming these difficulties. Such biomonitoring data can be used to identify where policies should be directed in order to reduce exposure, and to document policies that have successfully reduced exposure.

How neoliberalism and ecological modernization shaped environmental policy in Australia

‘Sustainability’ provides the dominant frame within which environmental policy debate occurs, notwithstanding its divergent meanings. However, how different discourses combine to shape understanding of the environment, the causes of environmental issues, and the responses required, is less clear cut. Drawing primarily on the approach to critical discourse analysis (CDA) developed by Fairclough, this paper explores the way in which neoliberal and ecologically modern discourses combine to shape environmental policy. Environmental scholars have made relatively little use of this approach to CDA to date, despite the significant interest in the discursive aspects of environmental issues, and its wide use in other areas of policy interest. Using the case of environmental policy-making in Victoria, Australia, this paper illustrates how neoliberalism and weak ecological modernization represented sustainability in ways that seriously limited the importance of environmental issues.