Efficiency, costs and trade-offs in marine reserve system design

With marine biodiversity conservation the primary goal for reserve planning initiatives, a site's conservation potential is typically evaluated on the basis of the biological and physical features it contains. By comparison, socio-economic information is seldom a formal consideration of the reserve system design problem and generally limited to an assessment of threats, vulnerability or compatibility with surrounding uses. This is perhaps surprising given broad recognition that the success of reserve establishment is highly dependent on widespread stakeholder and community support. Using information on the spatial distribution and intensity of commercial rock lobster catch in South Australia, we demonstrate the capacity of mathematical reserve selection procedures to integrate socio-economic and biophysical information for marine reserve system design. Analyses of trade-offs highlight the opportunities to design representative, efficient and practical marine reserve systems that minimise potential loss to commercial users. We found that the objective of minimising the areal extent of the reserve system was barely compromised by incorporating economic design constraints. With a small increase in area (< 3%) and boundary length (< 10%), the economic impact of marine reserves on the commercial rock lobster fishery was reduced by more than a third. We considered also how a reserve planner might prioritise conservation areas using information on a planning units selection frequency. We found that selection frequencies alone were not a reliable guide for the selection of marine reserve systems, but could be used with approaches such as summed irreplaceability to direct conservation effort for efficient marine reserve design.

Maternal alcohol use disorder and offspring ADHD: disentangling genetic and environmental effects using a children-of-twins design

Background. Children of alcoholics are significantly more likely to experience high-risk environmental exposures, including prenatal substance exposure, and are more likely to exhibit externalizing problems [e.g. attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)]. While there is evidence that genetic influences and prenatal nicotine and/or alcohol exposure play separate roles in determining risk of ADHD, little has been done on determining the joint roles that genetic risk associated with maternal alcohol use disorder (AUD) and prenatal risk factors play in determining risk of ADHD. Method. Using a children-of-twins design, diagnostic telephone interview data from high-risk families (female monozygotic and dizygotic twins concordant or discordant for AUD as parents) and control families targeted from a large Australian twin cohort were analyzed using logistic regression models. Results. Offspring of twins with a history of AUD, as well as offspring of non-AUD monozygotic twins whose co-twin had AUD, were significantly more likely to exhibit ADHD than offspring of controls. This pattern is consistent with a genetic explanation for the association between maternal AUD and increased offspring risk of ADHD. Adjustment for prenatal smoking, which remained significantly predictive, did not remove the significant genetic association between maternal AUD and offspring ADHD. Conclusions. While maternal smoking during pregnancy probably contributes to the association between maternal AUD and offspring ADHD risk, the evidence for a significant genetic correlation suggests: (i) pleiotropic genetic effects, with some genes that influence risk of AUD also influencing vulnerability to ADHD; or (ii) ADHD is a direct risk-factor for AUD.

Practice report: the role of environmental factors in industrial site selection activities: a case of limestone quarry expansion in Barbados, West Indies

Site selection is a key activity for quarry expansion to support cement production, and is governed by factors such as resource availability, logistics, costs, and socio-environmental factors. Adequate consideration of all factors facilitates both industrial productivity and sustainable economic growth. This study illustrates the site selection process that was undertaken for the expansion of limestone quarry operations to support cement production in Barbados. First, alternate sites with adequate resources to support a 25-year development horizon were identified. Second, socio-environmental conditions were described and potential impacts identified. Third, a comparative matrix was constructed to evaluate relative site characteristics with respect to physical, ecological, socio-cultural and economic factors. The study shows that environmental factors were essential to the final site recommendation.

Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

The design of environmental test rigs

Product reliability and its environmental performance have become critical elements within a product's specification and design. To obtain a high level of confidence in the reliability of the design it is customary to test the design under realistic conditions in a laboratory. The objective of the work is to examine the feasibility of designing mechanical test rigs which exhibit prescribed dynamical characteristics. The design is then attached to the rig and excitation is applied to the rig, which then transmits representative vibration levels into the product. The philosophical considerations made at the outset of the project are discussed as they form the basis for the resulting design methodologies. It is attempted to directly identify the parameters of a test rig from the spatial model derived during the system identification process. It is shown to be impossible to identify a feasible test rig design using this technique. A finite dimensional optimal design methodology is developed which identifies the parameters of a discrete spring/mass system which is dynamically similar to a point coordinate on a continuous structure. This design methodology is incorporated within another procedure which derives a structure comprising a continuous element and a discrete system. This methodology is used to obtain point coordinate similarity for two planes of motion, which is validated by experimental tests. A limitation of this approach is that it is impossible to achieve multi-coordinate similarity due to an interaction of the discrete system and the continuous element at points away from the coordinate of interest. During the work the importance of the continuous element is highlighted and a design methodology is developed for continuous structures. The design methodology is based upon distributed parameter optimal design techniques and allows an initial poor design estimate to be moved in a feasible direction towards an acceptable design solution. Cumulative damage theory is used to provide a quantitative method of assessing the quality of dynamic similarity. It is shown that the combination of modal analysis techniques and cumulative damage theory provides a feasible design synthesis methodology for representative test rigs.

The mathematical modelling of the environmental performance of buildings as an aid in the design process

This thesis is a theoretical study of the accuracy and usability of models that attempt to represent the environmental control system of buildings in order to improve environmental design. These models have evolved from crude representations of a building and its environment through to an accurate representation of the dynamic characteristics of the environmental stimuli on buildings. Each generation of models has had its own particular influence on built form. This thesis analyses the theory, structure and data of such models in terms of their accuracy of simulation and therefore their validity in influencing built form. The models are also analysed in terms of their compatability with the design process and hence their ability to aid designers. The conclusions are that such models are unlikely to improve environmental performance since: a the models can only be applied to a limited number of building types, b they can only be applied to a restricted number of the characteristics of a design, c they can only be employed after many major environmental decisions have been made, d the data used in models is inadequate and unrepresentative, e models do not account for occupant interaction in environmental control. It is argued that further improvements in the accuracy of simulation of environmental control will not significantly improve environmental design. This is based on the premise that strategic environmental decisions are made at the conceptual stages of design whereas models influence the detailed stages of design. It is hypothesised that if models are to improve environmental design it must be through the analysis of building typologies which provides a method of feedback between models and the conceptual stages of design. Field studies are presented to describe a method by which typologies can be analysed and a theoretical framework is described which provides a basis for further research into the implications of the morphology of buildings on environmental design.

The role of environmental factors in industrial site selection activities:a case of limestone quarry expansion in Barbados, West Indies

Site selection is a key activity for quarry expansion to support cement production, and is governed by factors such as resource availability, logistics, costs, and socio-environmental factors. Adequate consideration of all factors facilitates both industrial productivity and sustainable economic growth. This study illustrates the site selection process that was undertaken for the expansion of limestone quarry operations to support cement production in Barbados. First, alternate sites with adequate resources to support a 25-year development horizon were identified. Second, socio-environmental conditions were described and potential impacts identified. Third, a comparative matrix was constructed to evaluate relative site characteristics with respect to physical, ecological, socio-cultural and economic factors. The study shows that environmental factors were essential to the final site recommendation.

Characterization of design and economic sensitivity of vapor phase carbon adsorption systems to environmental uncertainties

Vapor phase carbon adsorption systems are used to remove aromatics, aliphatics, and halogenated hydrocarbons. The adsorption capacity of granular activated carbon is reduced when environmental parameters (temperature, pressure, and humidity) interfere with homogeneous surface diffusion and pore distribution dynamics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of parametric uncertainties in adsorption efficiency. ^ Modified versions of the Langmuir isotherm in conjunction with thermodynamic equations described gaseous adsorption of single component influent onto microporous media. Experimental test results derived from Wang et al. (1999) simulated adsorption kinetics while the Myer and monsoon Langmuir constant accounted for isothermal gas compression and energetic heterogeneity under thermodynamic equilibrium conditions. Responsiveness of adsorption capacity to environmental uncertainties was analyzed by statistical sensitivity and modeled by breakthrough curves. Results indicated that extensive fluctuations in adsorption capacity significantly reduced carbon consumption while isothermal variations had a pronounced effect on saturation capacity. ^

System-on-a-Chip (SOC) based environmental monitoring platform for the detection of hazardous materials

The purpose of this research is design considerations for environmental monitoring platforms for the detection of hazardous materials using System-on-a-Chip (SoC) design. Design considerations focus on improving key areas such as: (1) sampling methodology; (2) context awareness; and (3) sensor placement. These design considerations for environmental monitoring platforms using wireless sensor networks (WSN) is applied to the detection of methylmercury (MeHg) and environmental parameters affecting its formation (methylation) and deformation (demethylation). ^ The sampling methodology investigates a proof-of-concept for the monitoring of MeHg using three primary components: (1) chemical derivatization; (2) preconcentration using the purge-and-trap (P&T) method; and (3) sensing using Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCM) sensors. This study focuses on the measurement of inorganic mercury (Hg) (e.g., Hg2+) and applies lessons learned to organic Hg (e.g., MeHg) detection. ^ Context awareness of a WSN and sampling strategies is enhanced by using spatial analysis techniques, namely geostatistical analysis (i.e., classical variography and ordinary point kriging), to help predict the phenomena of interest in unmonitored locations (i.e., locations without sensors). This aids in making more informed decisions on control of the WSN (e.g., communications strategy, power management, resource allocation, sampling rate and strategy, etc.). This methodology improves the precision of controllability by adding potentially significant information of unmonitored locations.^ There are two types of sensors that are investigated in this study for near-optimal placement in a WSN: (1) environmental (e.g., humidity, moisture, temperature, etc.) and (2) visual (e.g., camera) sensors. The near-optimal placement of environmental sensors is found utilizing a strategy which minimizes the variance of spatial analysis based on randomly chosen points representing the sensor locations. Spatial analysis is employed using geostatistical analysis and optimization occurs with Monte Carlo analysis. Visual sensor placement is accomplished for omnidirectional cameras operating in a WSN using an optimal placement metric (OPM) which is calculated for each grid point based on line-of-site (LOS) in a defined number of directions where known obstacles are taken into consideration. Optimal areas of camera placement are determined based on areas generating the largest OPMs. Statistical analysis is examined by using Monte Carlo analysis with varying number of obstacles and cameras in a defined space. ^