Influence of environmental conditions on the age, hatch dates, and growth of juvenile Atlantic menhaden in the Choptank River, MD

Since 1993 Atlantic menhaden has experienced sustained low juvenile production (recruitment) in the Chesapeake Bay. Factors controlling growth, abundance, and mortality of larval and juvenile menhaden change throughout ontogeny such that larval growth rates could carry over to juvenile growth and survival. The effects of winter thermal conditions on the hatch dates and growth of larval and juvenile Atlantic menhaden in Atlantic shelf and Chesapeake Bay habitats were examined using otolith (ear-stone) increment analyses and growth models. For 2010-2013, truncated hatch-date distributions provided evidence for a winter recruitment bottleneck in Atlantic menhaden caused by cold temperatures. Hatch-dates of surviving juveniles were skewed towards warmer months for years characterized by colder temperatures. Reduced larval growth rates, influenced by reduced temperature and food availability, carried over to juvenile growth rates. A growing degree-day model performed well in simulating observed juvenile growth rates in the Choptank River tributary of Chesapeake Bay.

Fueling growth when oil peaks: directed technological change and the limits to efficiency

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining.

Decisions on investment allocation in the post-keynesian growth model

Neste artigo os modelos de crescimento e alocação de investimento a la Feldman-Mahalanobis são estendidos para considerar a análise de decisões de alocação de investimento no contexto do modelo de crescimento pós-Keynesiano. Ao adotar essa abordagem é possível introduzir características distributivas no modelo de Feldman-Mahalanobis que nos permitem determinar a taxa de alocação de investimentos de acordo com as decisões de equilíbrio entre investimento e poupança. Finalmente, uma condição adicional é adicionada ao modelo de crescimento pós-keynesiano, a fim de caracterizar plenamente o caminho de equilíbrio em uma versão estendida deste, onde bens de capital também são necessários para produzir bens de capital. _________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT

Age and growth of the smooth hammerhead shark, Sphyrna zygaena, in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic Ocean, using vertebral sections

The smooth hammerhead shark Sphyrna zygaena (Sphyrnidae) is regularly caught as bycatch in pelagic longline fisheries, but is one of the least studied of all pelagic sharks. Recently, ICCAT (International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas) issued recommendations underlining the need for more studies on the life history parameters of this and other pelagic shark species. To this end, the age and growth of S. zygaena were studied in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic Ocean, in an area where growth parameters were not yet available for this species. Data from 139 specimens, caught between June and September 2009, ranging in size from 136 to 233 cm fork length (FL), were analysed. Preliminary trials were carried out to assess the most efficient growth band enhancement technique. These indicated that sectioning the vertebrae into 500 μm sections followed by staining with crystal violet produced the best results. Growth models were fitted using the traditional von Bertalanffy growth equation and a modification of this equation using a known size at birth. Growth models were compared using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). The von Bertalanffy growth equation seemed to be the most adequate model to describe growth in this species, with resulting growth parameters of L inf = 272 cm FL, k = 0.06 year for males and L inf = 285 cm FL, k = 0.07 year for females. In the first four years of life, S. zygaena grows 25 cm per year on average, but its growth slows down in later life. Future stock assessment models should incorporate these age and growth parameters for species management and conservation.

El efecto de la definición regulatoria de banda ancha sobre la difusión y la competencia del mercado de servicios de Internet fijo en Colombia

A partir de la dinámica evolutiva de la economía de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones y el establecimiento de estándares mínimos de velocidad en distintos contextos regulatorios a nivel mundial, en particular en Colombia, en el presente artículo se presentan diversas aproximaciones empíricas para evaluar los efectos reales que conlleva el establecimiento de definiciones de servicios de banda ancha en el mercado de Internet fijo. Con base en los datos disponibles para Colombia sobre los planes de servicios de Internet fijo ofrecidos durante el periodo 2006-2012, se estima para los segmentos residencial y corporativo el proceso de difusión logístico modificado y el modelo de interacción estratégica para identificar los impactos generados sobre la masificación del servicio a nivel municipal y sobre las decisiones estratégicas que adoptan los operadores, respectivamente. Respecto a los resultados, se encuentra, por una parte, que las dos medidas regulatorias establecidas en Colombia en 2008 y 2010 presentan efectos significativos y positivos sobre el desplazamiento y el crecimiento de los procesos de difusión a nivel municipal. Por otra parte, se observa sustituibilidad estratégica en las decisiones de oferta de velocidad de descarga por parte de los operadores corporativos mientras que, a partir del análisis de distanciamiento de la velocidad ofrecida respecto al estándar mínimo de banda ancha, se demuestra que los proveedores de servicios residenciales tienden a agrupar sus decisiones de velocidad alrededor de los niveles establecidos por regulación.

Sustainable urban and regional infrastructure development : technologies, applications and management

Sustainable Urban and Regional Infrastructure Development: Technologies, Applications and Management, bridges the gap in the current literature by addressing the overall problems present in society's major infrastructures, and the technologies that may be applied to overcome these problems. It focuses on ways in which energy intensive but 'invisible' (to the general public) facilities can become green or greener. The studies presented re lessons to be learnt from our neighbors and from our own backyard, and provide an excellent general overview of the issues facing us all.

Preface : sustainable urban and regional infrastructure development : technologies, applications and management

The concept of ‘sustainability’ has been pushed to the forefront of policy-making and politics as the world wakes up to the impacts of climate change and the effects of the modern urban lifestyle. Climate change has emerged to be one of the biggest challenges faced by our planet today, threatening both built and natural systems with long term consequences which may be irreversible. While there is a vast literature in the market on sustainable cities and urban development, there is currently none that bring together the vital issues of urban and regional development, and the planning, management and implementation of sustainable infrastructure. Large scale infrastructure plays an important part in modern society by not only promoting economic growth, but also by acting as a key indicator for it. More importantly, it supplies municipal/local amenity and services: water, electricity, social and communication facilities, waste removal, transport of people and goods, as well as numerous other services. For the most part, infrastructure has been built by teams lead by engineers who are more concerned about functionality than the concept of sustainability. However, it has been widely stated that current practices and lifestyle cannot continue if we are to leave a healthy living planet to not only the next generation, but also to the generations beyond. Therefore, in order to be sustainable, there are drastic measures that need to be taken. Current single purpose and design infrastructures that are open looped are not sustainable; they are too resource intensive, consume too much energy and support the consumption of natural resources at a rate that will exhaust their supply. Because of this, it is vital that modern society, policy-makers, developers, engineers and planners become pioneers in introducing and incorporating sustainable features into urban and regional infrastructure.

Stages of knowledge management systems in policing financial crime

A stage model for knowledge management systems in policing financial crime is developed in this paper. Stages of growth models enable identification of organizational maturity and direction. Information technology to support knowledge work of police officers is improving. For example, new information systems supporting police investigations are evolving. Police investigation is an information-rich and knowledge-intensive practice. Its success depends on turning information into evidence. This paper presents an organizing framework for knowledge management systems in policing financial crime. Future case studies will empirically have to illustrate and validate the stage hypothesis developed in this paper.

Analysis of productive performance of crop and animal production systems : an integrated analytical framework

This article presents a two-stage analytical framework that integrates ecological crop (animal) growth and economic frontier production models to analyse the productive efficiency of crop (animal) production systems. The ecological crop (animal) growth model estimates "potential" output levels given the genetic characteristics of crops (animals) and the physical conditions of locations where the crops (animals) are grown (reared). The economic frontier production model estimates "best practice" production levels, taking into account economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. In the first stage, both ecological crop growth and economic frontier production models are estimated to calculate three measures of productive efficiency: (1) technical efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "best practice" output levels; (2) agronomic efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "potential" output levels; and (3) agro-economic efficiency, as the ratio of "best practice" to "potential" output levels. Also in the first stage, the economic frontier production model identifies factors that determine technical efficiency. In the second stage, agro-economic efficiency is analysed econometrically in relation to economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. The proposed framework has several important advantages in comparison with existing proposals. Firstly, it allows the systematic incorporation of all physical, economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity in analysing the productive performance of crop and animal production systems. Secondly, the location-specific physical factors are not modelled symmetrically as other economic inputs of production. Thirdly, climate change and technological advancements in crop and animal sciences can be modelled in a "forward-looking" manner. Fourthly, knowledge in agronomy and data from experimental studies can be utilised for socio-economic policy analysis. The proposed framework can be easily applied in empirical studies due to the current availability of ecological crop (animal) growth models, farm or secondary data, and econometric software packages. The article highlights several directions of empirical studies that researchers may pursue in the future.

Energy dependence of methyl-radical adsorption on diamond (001)-(2×1) surface

The deposition of hyperthermal CH3 on diamond (001)-(2×1) surface at room temperature has been studied by means of molecular dynamics simulation using the many-body hydrocarbon potential. The energy threshold effect has been observed. That is, with fixed collision geometry, chemisorption can occur only when the incident energy of CH3 is above a critical value (Eth). Increasing the incident energy, dissociation of hydrogen atoms from the incident molecule was observed. The chemisorption probability of CH3 as a function of its incident energy was calculated and compared with that of C2H2. We found that below 10 eV, the chemisorption probability of C2H2 is much lower than that of CH3 on the same surface. The interesting thing is that it is even lower than that of CH3 on a hydrogen covered surface at the same impact energy. It indicates that the reactive CH3 molecule is the more important species than C2H2 in diamond synthesis at low energy, which is in good agreement with the experimental observation.

Redistribution and technology adoption under uncertainty : a political economy perspective

We examine the role of politico-economic influences on macroeconomic performance within the framework of an endogenous growth model with costly technology adoption and uncertainty. The model is aimed at understanding the diversity in growth and inequality experiences across countries. Agents adopt either of two risky technologies, one of which is only available through financial intermediaries, who are able to alleviate some of this risk. The entry cost of financial intermediation depends on the proportion of government revenue that is allocated towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure, and agents vote on this proportion. The results show that agents at the top and bottom ends of the distribution prefer alternative means of re-distribution, thereby effectively blocking the allocation of resources towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure. Thus political factors have a role in delaying financial and capital deepening and economic development. Furthermore, the model provides a political-economy perspective on the Kuznets curve; uncertainty interacts with the political economy mechanism to produce transitional inequality patterns that, depending on initial conditions, can unearth the Kuznets-curve experience. Finally, the political outcomes are inefficient relative to policies aimed at maximizing the collective welfare of agents in the economy.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Nuorten männiköiden kehitys - taimikonhoito ja ensiharvennus

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of location, site type, regeneration method and precommercial thinning on the characteristics and development of young, even-aged, pure Scots pine stands. In addition, the effects of timing and intensity of first commercial thinning on the yield and profitability during the rotation period were also studied. The stand characteristics and external quality of young Scots pine stands and stand-level growth models were based on extensive inventory data of the Finnish Forest Research Institute for young Scots pine stands (3 measurement times, 192 stands). The effect of precommercial thinning on stand development was examined on the basis of long-term experiments (13 stands, 169 plots). The effect of timing and intensity of the first commercial thinning on yield and profitability were based on measurements made in first commercial thinnings (27 stands of Metsähallitus), and the further stand development was modeled using the MOTTI simulator. The thesis was based on four articles and a summary. Stand level growth models were developed for young, even-aged Scots pine stands. The models reliably predicted the development up until the first commercial thinning stage. The stand density of young Scots pine stands in Finland was moderately low compared to the target values. In addition, the external quality of pines was low on average. The low stand density and poor external quality will result in the need for quality tree selection in thinnings, if high quality sawn timber is required. In Northern Finland, only 20% of the dominant trees were classified as normal. This will lead to the situation where external quality will remain relatively poor up until the end of rotation. Early and light precommercial thinning (Hdom 3 m, to a density of 3000 trees per hectare) increased the thinning removal by 40% compared to late and more intensive precommercial thinning (at 7 meters to a density of 2000 trees per hectare). A model for the effect of precommercial thinning on merchantable thinning removal at the first commercial thinning was developed for forest management planning purposes. When the recommended time of first commercial thinning was delayed from a dominant height of 12 m to 16 m, or by ten years, the yield of merchantable wood was doubled. Simultaneously, the current value of the stumpage revenues (with 4% interest rate) was increased on the average by 65% (330 € per hectare). Variation in stumpage prices or interest rates did not have any effect on the final results. Without exception, delaying the first commercial thinning by ten years seemed to be the most profitable method. This presupposes that precommercial thinning has been carried out at the right time and that tree quality aspects do not be specially considered. Furthermore, the wood yield and economic outcome from the entire rotation were similar regardless of whether the first thinning was performed at the time currently recommended or ten years later.

The structure of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) stems in relation to wood properties of sawn timber

An important challenge in forest industry is to get the appropriate raw material out from the forests to the wood processing industry. Growth and stem reconstruction simulators are therefore increasingly integrated in industrial conversion simulators, for linking the properties of wooden products to the three-dimensional structure of stems and their growing conditions. Static simulators predict the wood properties from stem dimensions at the end of a growth simulation period, whereas in dynamic approaches, the structural components, e.g. branches, are incremented along with the growth processes. The dynamic approach can be applied to stem reconstruction by predicting the three-dimensional stem structure from external tree variables (i.e. age, height) as a result of growth to the current state. In this study, a dynamic growth simulator, PipeQual, and a stem reconstruction simulator, RetroSTEM, are adapted to Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) to predict the three-dimensional structure of stems (tapers, branchiness, wood basic density) over time such that both simulators can be integrated in a sawing simulator. The parameterisation of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators for Norway spruce relied on the theoretically based description of tree structure developing in the growth process and following certain conservative structural regularities while allowing for plasticity in the crown development. The crown expressed both regularity and plasticity in its development, as the vertical foliage density peaked regularly at about 5 m from the stem apex, varying below that with tree age and dominance position (Study I). Conservative stem structure was characterized in terms of (1) the pipe ratios between foliage mass and branch and stem cross-sectional areas at crown base, (2) the allometric relationship between foliage mass and crown length, (3) mean branch length relative to crown length and (4) form coefficients in branches and stem (Study II). The pipe ratio between branch and stem cross-sectional area at crown base, and mean branch length relative to the crown length may differ in trees before and after canopy closure, but the variation should be further analysed in stands of different ages and densities with varying site fertilities and climates. The predictions of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators were evaluated by comparing the simulated values to measured ones (Study III, IV). Both simulators predicted stem taper and branch diameter at the individual tree level with a small bias. RetroSTEM predictions of wood density were accurate. For focusing on even more accurate predictions of stem diameters and branchiness along the stem, both simulators should be further improved by revising the following aspects in the simulators: the relationship between foliage and stem sapwood area in the upper stem, the error source in branch sizes, the crown base development and the height growth models in RetroSTEM. In Study V, the RetroSTEM simulator was integrated in the InnoSIM sawing simulator, and according to the pilot simulations, this turned out to be an efficient tool for readily producing stand scale information about stem sizes and structure when approximating the available assortments of wood products.