Testing Wisconsin asphalt mixtures for the 2002 AASHTO mechanistic design procedure

There has been a continuous evolutionary process in asphalt pavement design. In the beginning it was crude and based on past experience. Through research, empirical methods were developed based on materials response to specific loading at the AASHO Road Test. Today, pavement design has progressed to a mechanistic-empirical method. This methodology takes into account the mechanical properties of the individual layers and uses empirical relationships to relate them to performance. The mechanical tests that are used as part of this methodology include dynamic modulus and flow number, which have been shown to correlate with field pavement performance. This thesis was based on a portion of a research project being conducted at Michigan Technological University (MTU) for the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). The global scope of this project dealt with the development of a library of values as they pertain to the mechanical properties of the asphalt pavement mixtures paved in Wisconsin. Additionally, a comparison with the current associated pavement design to that of the new AASHTO Design Guide was conducted. This thesis describes the development of the current pavement design methodology as well as the associated tests as part of a literature review. This report also details the materials that were sampled from field operations around the state of Wisconsin and their testing preparation and procedures. Testing was conducted on available round robin and three Wisconsin mixtures and the main results of the research were: The test history of the Superpave SPT (fatigue and permanent deformation dynamic modulus) does not affect the mean response for both dynamic modulus and flow number, but does increase the variability in the test results of the flow number. The method of specimen preparation, compacting to test geometry versus sawing/coring to test geometry, does not statistically appear to affect the intermediate and high temperature dynamic modulus and flow number test results. The 2002 AASHTO Design Guide simulations support the findings of the statistical analyses that the method of specimen preparation did not impact the performance of the HMA as a structural layer as predicted by the Design Guide software. The methodologies for determining the temperature-viscosity relationship as stipulated by Witczak are sensitive to the viscosity test temperatures employed. The increase in asphalt binder content by 0.3% was found to actually increase the dynamic modulus at the intermediate and high test temperature as well as flow number. This result was based the testing that was conducted and was contradictory to previous research and the hypothesis that was put forth for this thesis. This result should be used with caution and requires further review. Based on the limited results presented herein, the asphalt binder grade appears to have a greater impact on performance in the Superpave SPT than aggregate angularity. Dynamic modulus and flow number was shown to increase with traffic level (requiring an increase in aggregate angularity) and with a decrease in air voids and confirm the hypotheses regarding these two factors. Accumulated micro-strain at flow number as opposed to the use of flow number appeared to be a promising measure for comparing the quality of specimens within a specific mixture. At the current time the Design Guide and its associate software needs to be further improved prior to implementation by owner/agencies.

Potential clinical utility of polymerase chain reaction in microbiological testing for sepsis

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential improvement of antimicrobial treatment by utilizing a new multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay that identifies sepsis-relevant microorganisms in blood. DESIGN: Prospective, observational international multicentered trial. SETTING: University hospitals in Germany (n = 2), Spain (n = 1), and the United States (n = 1), and one Italian tertiary general hospital. PATIENTS: 436 sepsis patients with 467 episodes of antimicrobial treatment. METHODS: Whole blood for PCR and blood culture (BC) analysis was sampled independently for each episode. The potential impact of reporting microorganisms by PCR on adequacy and timeliness of antimicrobial therapy was analyzed. The number of gainable days on early adequate antimicrobial treatment attributable to PCR findings was assessed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Sepsis criteria, days on antimicrobial therapy, antimicrobial substances administered, and microorganisms identified by PCR and BC susceptibility tests. RESULTS: BC diagnosed 117 clinically relevant microorganisms; PCR identified 154. Ninety-nine episodes were BC positive (BC+); 131 episodes were PCR positive (PCR+). Overall, 127.8 days of clinically inadequate empirical antibiotic treatment in the 99 BC+ episodes were observed. Utilization of PCR-aided diagnostics calculates to a potential reduction of 106.5 clinically inadequate treatment days. The ratio of gainable early adequate treatment days to number of PCR tests done is 22.8 days/100 tests overall (confidence interval 15-31) and 36.4 days/100 tests in the intensive care and surgical ward populations (confidence interval 22-51). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid PCR identification of microorganisms may contribute to a reduction of early inadequate antibiotic treatment in sepsis.

Cerebellar mechanisms for motor learning: Testing predictions from a large-scale computer simulation

The cerebellum is the major brain structure that contributes to our ability to improve movements through learning and experience. We have combined computer simulations with behavioral and lesion studies to investigate how modification of synaptic strength at two different sites within the cerebellum contributes to a simple form of motor learning—Pavlovian conditioning of the eyelid response. These studies are based on the wealth of knowledge about the intrinsic circuitry and physiology of the cerebellum and the straightforward manner in which this circuitry is engaged during eyelid conditioning. Thus, our simulations are constrained by the well-characterized synaptic organization of the cerebellum and further, the activity of cerebellar inputs during simulated eyelid conditioning is based on existing recording data. These simulations have allowed us to make two important predictions regarding the mechanisms underlying cerebellar function, which we have tested and confirmed with behavioral studies. The first prediction describes the mechanisms by which one of the sites of synaptic modification, the granule to Purkinje cell synapses (gr → Pkj) of the cerebellar cortex, could generate two time-dependent properties of eyelid conditioning—response timing and the ISI function. An empirical test of this prediction using small, electrolytic lesions of the cerebellar cortex revealed the pattern of results predicted by the simulations. The second prediction made by the simulations is that modification of synaptic strength at the other site of plasticity, the mossy fiber to deep nuclei synapses (mf → nuc), is under the control of Purkinje cell activity. The analysis predicts that this property should confer mf → nuc synapses with resistance to extinction. Thus, while extinction processes erase plasticity at the first site, residual plasticity at mf → nuc synapses remains. The residual plasticity at the mf → nuc site confers the cerebellum with the capability for rapid relearning long after the learned behavior has been extinguished. We confirmed this prediction using a lesion technique that reversibly disconnected the cerebellar cortex at various stages during extinction and reacquisition of eyelid responses. The results of these studies represent significant progress toward a complete understanding of how the cerebellum contributes to motor learning. ^

What Is Known about Testing for Discrimination: Lessons Learned by Comparing across Different Markets

The paper provides a fairly comprehensive examination of recent empirical work on discrimination within economics. The three major analytical approaches considered are traditional regression analysis of outcomes, paired testing or audits, and finally analysis of performance where higher group performance suggests that a group has been treated disfavorably. The review covers research in the labor, credit, and consumption markets, as well as recent studies of discrimination within the legal system. The review suggests that the validity of interpreting observed racial differences as discrimination depends heavily on whether the analysis is based on a sample that is representative of a population of individuals or households or based on a sample of market transactions, as well as the analyst?s ability to control for heterogeneity within that sample. Heterogeneous firm behavior and differentiated products, such as those found in labor and housing markets, also can confound empirical analyses of discrimination by confusing the allocation of individuals across firms or products with disparate treatment or by ignoring disparate impacts that might arise based on that allocation.

Comparing the effectiveness of equivalence partitioning, branch testing and code reading by stepwise abstraction applied by subjects

Some verification and validation techniques have been evaluated both theoretically and empirically. Most empirical studies have been conducted without subjects, passing over any effect testers have when they apply the techniques. We have run an experiment with students to evaluate the effectiveness of three verification and validation techniques (equivalence partitioning, branch testing and code reading by stepwise abstraction). We have studied how well able the techniques are to reveal defects in three programs. We have replicated the experiment eight times at different sites. Our results show that equivalence partitioning and branch testing are equally effective and better than code reading by stepwise abstraction. The effectiveness of code reading by stepwise abstraction varies significantly from program to program. Finally, we have identified project contextual variables that should be considered when applying any verification and validation technique or to choose one particular technique.

Effectiveness for Ddtecting faults within and outside the scope of testing techniques: an independent replication

The verification and validation activity plays a fundamental role in improving software quality. Determining which the most effective techniques for carrying out this activity are has been an aspiration of experimental software engineering researchers for years. This paper reports a controlled experiment evaluating the effectiveness of two unit testing techniques (the functional testing technique known as equivalence partitioning (EP) and the control-flow structural testing technique known as branch testing (BT)). This experiment is a literal replication of Juristo et al. (2013).Both experiments serve the purpose of determining whether the effectiveness of BT and EP varies depending on whether or not the faults are visible for the technique (InScope or OutScope, respectively). We have used the materials, design and procedures of the original experiment, but in order to adapt the experiment to the context we have: (1) reduced the number of studied techniques from 3 to 2; (2) assigned subjects to experimental groups by means of stratified randomization to balance the influence of programming experience; (3) localized the experimental materials and (4) adapted the training duration. We ran the replication at the Escuela Politécnica del Ejército Sede Latacunga (ESPEL) as part of a software verification & validation course. The experimental subjects were 23 master?s degree students. EP is more effective than BT at detecting InScope faults. The session/program andgroup variables are found to have significant effects. BT is more effective than EP at detecting OutScope faults. The session/program and group variables have no effect in this case. The results of the replication and the original experiment are similar with respect to testing techniques. There are some inconsistencies with respect to the group factor. They can be explained by small sample effects. The results for the session/program factor are inconsistent for InScope faults.We believe that these differences are due to a combination of the fatigue effect and a technique x program interaction. Although we were able to reproduce the main effects, the changes to the design of the original experiment make it impossible to identify the causes of the discrepancies for sure. We believe that further replications closely resembling the original experiment should be conducted to improve our understanding of the phenomena under study.

Effectiveness for detecting faults within and outside the scope of testing techniques: an independent replication

The verification and validation activity plays a fundamental role in improving software quality. Determining which the most effective techniques for carrying out this activity are has been an aspiration of experimental software engineering researchers for years. This paper reports a controlled experiment evaluating the effectiveness of two unit testing techniques (the functional testing technique known as equivalence partitioning (EP) and the control-flow structural testing technique known as branch testing (BT)). This experiment is a literal replication of Juristo et al. (2013). Both experiments serve the purpose of determining whether the effectiveness of BT and EP varies depending on whether or not the faults are visible for the technique (InScope or OutScope, respectively). We have used the materials, design and procedures of the original experiment, but in order to adapt the experiment to the context we have: (1) reduced the number of studied techniques from 3 to 2; (2) assigned subjects to experimental groups by means of stratified randomization to balance the influence of programming experience; (3) localized the experimental materials and (4) adapted the training duration. We ran the replication at the Escuela Polite?cnica del Eje?rcito Sede Latacunga (ESPEL) as part of a software verification & validation course. The experimental subjects were 23 master?s degree students. EP is more effective than BT at detecting InScope faults. The session/program and group variables are found to have significant effects. BT is more effective than EP at detecting OutScope faults. The session/program and group variables have no effect in this case. The results of the replication and the original experiment are similar with respect to testing techniques. There are some inconsistencies with respect to the group factor. They can be explained by small sample effects. The results for the session/program factor are inconsistent for InScope faults. We believe that these differences are due to a combination of the fatigue effect and a technique x program interaction. Although we were able to reproduce the main effects, the changes to the design of the original experiment make it impossible to identify the causes of the discrepancies for sure. We believe that further replications closely resembling the original experiment should be conducted to improve our understanding of the phenomena under study.

A systematic mapping study on testing technique experiments: has the situation changed since 2000?

Context: Empirical Software Engineering (ESE) replication researchers need to store and manipulate experimental data for several purposes, in particular analysis and reporting. Current research needs call for sharing and preservation of experimental data as well. In a previous work, we analyzed Replication Data Management (RDM) needs. A novel concept, called Experimental Ecosystem, was proposed to solve current deficiencies in RDM approaches. The empirical ecosystem provides replication researchers with a common framework that integrates transparently local heterogeneous data sources. A typical situation where the Empirical Ecosystem is applicable, is when several members of a research group, or several research groups collaborating together, need to share and access each other experimental results. However, to be able to apply the Empirical Ecosystem concept and deliver all promised benefits, it is necessary to analyze the software architectures and tools that can properly support it.

Urban wind energy: empirical optimization of high-rise building roof shape for the wind energy exploitation

El programa Europeo HORIZON2020 en Futuras Ciudades Inteligentes establece como objetivo que el 20% de la energía eléctrica sea generada a partir de fuentes renovables. Este objetivo implica la necesidad de potenciar la generación de energía eólica en todos los ámbitos. La energía eólica reduce drásticamente las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y evita los riesgos geo-políticos asociados al suministro e infraestructuras energéticas, así como la dependencia energética de otras regiones. Además, la generación de energía distribuida (generación en el punto de consumo) presenta significativas ventajas en términos de elevada eficiencia energética y estimulación de la economía. El sector de la edificación representa el 40% del consumo energético total de la Unión Europea. La reducción del consumo energético en este área es, por tanto, una prioridad de acuerdo con los objetivos "20-20-20" en eficiencia energética. La Directiva 2010/31/EU del Parlamento Europeo y del Consejo de 19 de mayo de 2010 sobre el comportamiento energético de edificaciones contempla la instalación de sistemas de suministro energético a partir de fuentes renovables en las edificaciones de nuevo diseño. Actualmente existe una escasez de conocimiento científico y tecnológico acerca de la geometría óptima de las edificaciones para la explotación de la energía eólica en entornos urbanos. El campo tecnológico de estudio de la presente Tesis Doctoral es la generación de energía eólica en entornos urbanos. Específicamente, la optimization de la geometría de las cubiertas de edificaciones desde el punto de vista de la explotación del recurso energético eólico. Debido a que el flujo del viento alrededor de las edificaciones es exhaustivamente investigado en esta Tesis empleando herramientas de simulación numérica, la mecánica de fluidos computacional (CFD en inglés) y la aerodinámica de edificaciones son los campos científicos de estudio. El objetivo central de esta Tesis Doctoral es obtener una geometría de altas prestaciones (u óptima) para la explotación de la energía eólica en cubiertas de edificaciones de gran altura. Este objetivo es alcanzado mediante un análisis exhaustivo de la influencia de la forma de la cubierta del edificio en el flujo del viento desde el punto de vista de la explotación energética del recurso eólico empleando herramientas de simulación numérica (CFD). Adicionalmente, la geometría de la edificación convencional (edificio prismático) es estudiada, y el posicionamiento adecuado para los diferentes tipos de aerogeneradores es propuesto. La compatibilidad entre el aprovechamiento de las energías solar fotovoltaica y eólica también es analizado en este tipo de edificaciones. La investigación prosigue con la optimización de la geometría de la cubierta. La metodología con la que se obtiene la geometría óptima consta de las siguientes etapas: - Verificación de los resultados de las geometrías previamente estudiadas en la literatura. Las geometrías básicas que se someten a examen son: cubierta plana, a dos aguas, inclinada, abovedada y esférica. - Análisis de la influencia de la forma de las aristas de la cubierta sobre el flujo del viento. Esta tarea se lleva a cabo mediante la comparación de los resultados obtenidos para la arista convencional (esquina sencilla) con un parapeto, un voladizo y una esquina curva. - Análisis del acoplamiento entre la cubierta y los cerramientos verticales (paredes) mediante la comparación entre diferentes variaciones de una cubierta esférica en una edificación de gran altura: cubierta esférica estudiada en la literatura, cubierta esférica integrada geométricamente con las paredes (planta cuadrada en el suelo) y una cubierta esférica acoplada a una pared cilindrica. El comportamiento del flujo sobre la cubierta es estudiado también considerando la posibilidad de la variación en la dirección del viento incidente. - Análisis del efecto de las proporciones geométricas del edificio sobre el flujo en la cubierta. - Análisis del efecto de la presencia de edificaciones circundantes sobre el flujo del viento en la cubierta del edificio objetivo. Las contribuciones de la presente Tesis Doctoral pueden resumirse en: - Se demuestra que los modelos de turbulencia RANS obtienen mejores resultados para la simulación del viento alrededor de edificaciones empleando los coeficientes propuestos por Crespo y los propuestos por Bechmann y Sórensen que empleando los coeficientes estándar. - Se demuestra que la estimación de la energía cinética turbulenta del flujo empleando modelos de turbulencia RANS puede ser validada manteniendo el enfoque en la cubierta de la edificación. - Se presenta una nueva modificación del modelo de turbulencia Durbin k — e que reproduce mejor la distancia de recirculación del flujo de acuerdo con los resultados experimentales. - Se demuestra una relación lineal entre la distancia de recirculación en una cubierta plana y el factor constante involucrado en el cálculo de la escala de tiempo de la velocidad turbulenta. Este resultado puede ser empleado por la comunidad científica para la mejora del modelado de la turbulencia en diversas herramientas computacionales (OpenFOAM, Fluent, CFX, etc.). - La compatibilidad entre las energías solar fotovoltaica y eólica en cubiertas de edificaciones es analizada. Se demuestra que la presencia de los módulos solares provoca un descenso en la intensidad de turbulencia. - Se demuestran conflictos en el cambio de escala entre simulaciones de edificaciones a escala real y simulaciones de modelos a escala reducida (túnel de viento). Se demuestra que para respetar las limitaciones de similitud (número de Reynolds) son necesarias mediciones en edificaciones a escala real o experimentos en túneles de viento empleando agua como fluido, especialmente cuando se trata con geometrías complejas, como es el caso de los módulos solares. - Se determina el posicionamiento más adecuado para los diferentes tipos de aerogeneradores tomando en consideración la velocidad e intensidad de turbulencia del flujo. El posicionamiento de aerogeneradores es investigado en las geometrías de cubierta más habituales (plana, a dos aguas, inclinada, abovedada y esférica). - Las formas de aristas más habituales (esquina, parapeto, voladizo y curva) son analizadas, así como su efecto sobre el flujo del viento en la cubierta de un edificio de gran altura desde el punto de vista del aprovechamiento eólico. - Se propone una geometría óptima (o de altas prestaciones) para el aprovechamiento de la energía eólica urbana. Esta optimización incluye: verificación de las geometrías estudiadas en el estado del arte, análisis de la influencia de las aristas de la cubierta en el flujo del viento, estudio del acoplamiento entre la cubierta y las paredes, análisis de sensibilidad del grosor de la cubierta, exploración de la influencia de las proporciones geométricas de la cubierta y el edificio, e investigación del efecto de las edificaciones circundantes (considerando diferentes alturas de los alrededores) sobre el flujo del viento en la cubierta del edificio objetivo. Las investigaciones comprenden el análisis de la velocidad, la energía cinética turbulenta y la intensidad de turbulencia en todos los casos. ABSTRACT The HORIZON2020 European program in Future Smart Cities aims to have 20% of electricity produced by renewable sources. This goal implies the necessity to enhance the wind energy generation, both with large and small wind turbines. Wind energy drastically reduces carbon emissions and avoids geo-political risks associated with supply and infrastructure constraints, as well as energy dependence from other regions. Additionally, distributed energy generation (generation at the consumption site) offers significant benefits in terms of high energy efficiency and stimulation of the economy. The buildings sector represents 40% of the European Union total energy consumption. Reducing energy consumption in this area is therefore a priority under the "20-20-20" objectives on energy efficiency. The Directive 2010/31/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 May 2010 on the energy performance of buildings aims to consider the installation of renewable energy supply systems in new designed buildings. Nowadays, there is a lack of knowledge about the optimum building shape for urban wind energy exploitation. The technological field of study of the present Thesis is the wind energy generation in urban environments. Specifically, the improvement of the building-roof shape with a focus on the wind energy resource exploitation. Since the wind flow around buildings is exhaustively investigated in this Thesis using numerical simulation tools, both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and building aerodynamics are the scientific fields of study. The main objective of this Thesis is to obtain an improved (or optimum) shape of a high-rise building for the wind energy exploitation on the roof. To achieve this objective, an analysis of the influence of the building shape on the behaviour of the wind flow on the roof from the point of view of the wind energy exploitation is carried out using numerical simulation tools (CFD). Additionally, the conventional building shape (prismatic) is analysed, and the adequate positions for different kinds of wind turbines are proposed. The compatibility of both photovoltaic-solar and wind energies is also analysed for this kind of buildings. The investigation continues with the buildingroof optimization. The methodology for obtaining the optimum high-rise building roof shape involves the following stages: - Verification of the results of previous building-roof shapes studied in the literature. The basic shapes that are compared are: flat, pitched, shed, vaulted and spheric. - Analysis of the influence of the roof-edge shape on the wind flow. This task is carried out by comparing the results obtained for the conventional edge shape (simple corner) with a railing, a cantilever and a curved edge. - Analysis of the roof-wall coupling by testing different variations of a spherical roof on a high-rise building: spherical roof studied in the litera ture, spherical roof geometrically integrated with the walls (squared-plant) and spherical roof with a cylindrical wall. The flow behaviour on the roof according to the variation of the incident wind direction is commented. - Analysis of the effect of the building aspect ratio on the flow. - Analysis of the surrounding buildings effect on the wind flow on the target building roof. The contributions of the present Thesis can be summarized as follows: - It is demonstrated that RANS turbulence models obtain better results for the wind flow around buildings using the coefficients proposed by Crespo and those proposed by Bechmann and S0rensen than by using the standard ones. - It is demonstrated that RANS turbulence models can be validated for turbulent kinetic energy focusing on building roofs. - A new modification of the Durbin k — e turbulence model is proposed in order to obtain a better agreement of the recirculation distance between CFD simulations and experimental results. - A linear relationship between the recirculation distance on a flat roof and the constant factor involved in the calculation of the turbulence velocity time scale is demonstrated. This discovery can be used by the research community in order to improve the turbulence modeling in different solvers (OpenFOAM, Fluent, CFX, etc.). - The compatibility of both photovoltaic-solar and wind energies on building roofs is demonstrated. A decrease of turbulence intensity due to the presence of the solar panels is demonstrated. - Scaling issues are demonstrated between full-scale buildings and windtunnel reduced-scale models. The necessity of respecting the similitude constraints is demonstrated. Either full-scale measurements or wind-tunnel experiments using water as a medium are needed in order to accurately reproduce the wind flow around buildings, specially when dealing with complex shapes (as solar panels, etc.). - The most adequate position (most adequate roof region) for the different kinds of wind turbines is highlighted attending to both velocity and turbulence intensity. The wind turbine positioning was investigated for the most habitual kind of building-roof shapes (flat, pitched, shed, vaulted and spherical). - The most habitual roof-edge shapes (simple edge, railing, cantilever and curved) were investigated, and their effect on the wind flow on a highrise building roof were analysed from the point of view of the wind energy exploitation. - An optimum building-roof shape is proposed for the urban wind energy exploitation. Such optimization includes: state-of-the-art roof shapes test, analysis of the influence of the roof-edge shape on the wind flow, study of the roof-wall coupling, sensitivity analysis of the roof width, exploration of the aspect ratio of the building-roof shape and investigation of the effect of the neighbouring buildings (considering different surrounding heights) on the wind now on the target building roof. The investigations comprise analysis of velocity, turbulent kinetic energy and turbulence intensity for all the cases.

Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

The primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major regions, namely North Sea, USA, Middle East, and South-East Asia. Associated with these regions are two major financial centers, namely UK and USA. For these reasons, the data to be used are the returns on alternative crude oil markets, returns on crude oil derivatives, specifically futures, and stock index returns in UK and USA. The paper will also analyze the Chinese financial markets, where the data are more recent. The empirical analysis will be based on the diagonal BEKK model, from which the conditional covariances will be used for testing co-volatility spillovers, and policy recommendations. Based on these results, dynamic hedging strategies will be suggested to analyze market fluctuations in crude oil prices and associated financial markets.

Testing co-volatility spillovers for natural gas spot, futures and ETF spot using dynamic conditional covariances

There is substantial empirical evidence that energy and financial markets are closely connected. As one of the most widely-used energy resources worldwide, natural gas has a large daily trading volume. In order to hedge the risk of natural gas spot markets, a large number of hedging strategies can be used, especially with the rapid development of natural gas derivatives markets. These hedging instruments include natural gas futures and options, as well as Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) prices that are related to natural gas stock prices. The volatility spillover effect is the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical, biological or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility of another physical, biological or financial asset. Investigating volatility spillovers within and across energy and financial markets is a crucial aspect of constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies. The paper tests and calculates spillover effects among natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets using the multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK model. The data used include natural gas spot and futures returns data from two major international natural gas derivatives markets, namely NYMEX (USA) and ICE (UK), as well as ETF data of natural gas companies from the stock markets in the USA and UK. The empirical results show that there are significant spillover effects in natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets for both USA and UK. Such a result suggests that both natural gas futures and ETF products within and beyond the country might be considered when constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies for natural gas spot prices.

Testing prospect theory in students’ performance

This paper tests the existence of ‘reference dependence’ and ‘loss aversion’ in students’ academic performance. Accordingly, achieving a worse than expected academic performance would have a much stronger effect on students’ (dis)satisfaction than obtaining a better than expected grade. Although loss aversion is a well-established finding, some authors have demonstrated that it can be moderated – diminished, to be precise–. Within this line of research, we also examine whether the students’ emotional response (satisfaction/dissatisfaction) to their performance can be moderated by different musical stimuli. We design an experiment through which we test loss aversion in students’ performance with three conditions: ‘classical music’, ‘heavy music’ and ‘no music’. The empirical application supports the reference-dependence and loss aversion hypotheses (significant at p < 0.05), and the musical stimuli do have an influence on the students’ state of satisfaction with the grades (at p < 0.05). Analyzing students’ perceptions is vital to find the way they process information. Particularly, knowing the elements that can favour not only the academic performance of students but also their attitude towards certain results is fundamental. This study demonstrates that musical stimuli can modify the perceptions of a certain academic result: the effects of ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ surprises are higher or lower, not only in function of the size of these surprises, but also according to the musical stimulus received.

Brand extensions in emerging markets:theory development and testing in China

Brand extensions are increasingly used by multinational corporations in emerging markets such as China. However, understanding how consumers in the emerging markets evaluate brand extensions is hampered by a lack of research in the emerging markets contexts. To address the knowledge void, we built on an established brand extension evaluation framework in the West, namely Aaker and Keller (1990)1. Aaker , D. A. and Keller , K. L. 1990 . Consumer evaluations of brand extensions . Journal of Marketing , 54 ( 1 ) : 27 – 41 . [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®] View all references, and extended the model by incorporating two new factors: perceived fit based on brand image consistency and competition intensity in the brand extension category. The additions of two factors are made in recognition of the uniqueness of the considerations of consumers in the emerging markets in their brand extension evaluations. The extended model was tested by an empirical experiment using consumers in China. The results partly validated the Aaker and Keller model, and evidence that both newly added factors were significant in influencing consumers' evaluation of brand extensions was also found. More important, one new factor proposed, namely, consumer-perceived fit based on brand image consistency, was found to be more significant than all the factors in Aaker and Keller's original model, suggesting that the Aaker and Keller model may be limited in explaining how consumers in the emerging markets evaluate brand extensions. Further research implications and limitations are discussed in the paper.