The determinants of economic growth versus genuine progress in South Korea

This paper examines whether the drivers of economic growth are the same as those for genuine progress in the case of South Korea. Using data covering the period 1970–2005, the paper first constructs a Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). An empirical model is then specified and estimated using growth in GDP per capita and growth in the GPI per capita as dependent variables. Results indicate that while physical capital, research and development, exports, and inflation are all important in determining growth in GDP per capita, only physical capital is a driver of genuine progress. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to identify and target other determinants of genuine progress to improve the well-being of South Koreans, rather than focus attention on traditional sources of economic growth.

Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence

In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence of predictability for developed countries.

Remittances and economic growth: larger impacts in smaller countries?

This paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Results from variants of an empirical model suggest that while, on average, there is at best no association between remittances and growth in developing countries, there is a positive association between these variables in SIDS. This finding holds for SIDS in sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacific but not for those in Latin America and the Caribbean. Relationships between remittances, economic volatility, and household labour supply are offered as reasons for these findings.

Foreign aid, leisure-effort choice, and economic growth

Using an endogenous growth model, this paper examines the growth and welfare effects of foreign aid in the recipient economy. The emphasis is on the incentive factor of the effort-leisure choice. Besides financing public services, part of the aid is transferred to the public. This increases individual wealth, thereby providing less incentives to individuals for human capital acquisition, but with more leisure. Thus, foreign aid may not always help the growth and welfare of the economy. Taking this incentive factor into account, we further study the issue on aid allocation in achieving the highest levels of growth and welfare. Along the balanced growth path, aid allocation for welfare maximization is different from that under growth maximization.

Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: prospects for fuel substitution

We examine the relationship between Chinese aggregate production and consumption of three main energy commodities: coal, oil and renewable energy. Both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction modeling (VECM) show that Chinese growth is led by all three energy sources. Economic growth also causes coal, oil and renewables consumption, but with negative own-price effects for coal and oil and a strong possibility of fuel substitution through positive cross-price effects. The results further show coal consumption causing pollution, while renewable energy consumption reduces emissions. No significant causation on emissions is found for oil. Hence, making coal both absolutely and relatively expensive compared to oil and renewable energy encourages shifting from coal to oil and renewable energy, thereby improving economic and environmental sustainability.

The role of technology on the dynamics of coal consumption-economic growth: new evidence from China

Coal comprises 70% of primary energy sources and 80% of electricity generation in China. This paper investigates the coal consumption-economic growth nexus in an integrated demand-supply framework over the period from 1978 to 2010. We incorporate the role of coal technology to explain the growth process. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in the coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator, a proxy for coal technology, causing almost a 35% increase in real GDP in the long run. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth, feedback effects both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and coal demand and openness to coal consumption. For a robustness check, we forecast the validity of the causal relationships beyond the sample horizon using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method. Our analysis suggests that improving overall efficiency in coal sector will continue to play a significant role in maintaining sustainable growth in China in the long run.

Pollution, health and economic growth

This paper examines the growth impacts of aid allocation on healthcare and pollution abatement in an endogenous growth model, and finds that the aid tied to them contributes positively to the equilibrium growth rate. Nonetheless, the growth rate can be reduced or even impaired if the ratio of aid on pollution abatement is lowered.

Human capital formation and US economic growth: A causality analysis

In this paper, Granger causality tests are applied to a new data set on human capital formation and US private sector GDP. The study is the first to test for causality between human capital formation and economic growth. It employs an error correction mechanism and is estimated through canonical cointegration regression. The results show strong evidence of casuality from human capital formation to private sector GDP and vice versa.

Coal - the black gold of economic growth in China: empirical evidence and the role of cleaner coal technologies in recent time

Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electricity generation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between coal consumption-economic growth nexus considering both supply and demand side models in a multivariate framework over the period of 1978 and 2010. Our innovation in this paper is to include a coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator into the economic growth model ; and trade exposure in coal demand. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in coal-to-efficiency indicator causes almost 35 per cent increase in real GDP in the long-run. The Toda-Yamamoto approach of causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth; feedback effect both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and openness to coal consumption. For robustness check, using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method we forecast the validity of causal relationships beyond the sample horizon. The paper suggests the role of advanced coal technologies will play a significant role along with other environmental and energy policies in maintaining sustainable economic growth in China .

Foreign direct investment and economic growth: A real relationship or wishful thinking?

Several theories have been advanced on the beneficial effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth. However, mixed empirical findings have resulted in a long-standing debate. This study explores the global FDI-growth relationship through an 'informed' econometric analysis predicated on substantial guidance obtained from a detailed investigation of 880 estimates reported in 108 published studies. With model uncertainties alleviated and the core specification benchmarked against the aforementioned assessment, our econometric analysis, utilising a global sample of 140 countries in the period 1970 to 2009, conclusively documents that FDI positively affects economic growth. Moreover, we find that this association holds globally as strongly as in the developing world. Further, it is regional variation rather than within-country variation, and contemporaneous FDI rather than past FDI, which matters for growth. Finally, appropriate absorptive capacity indicators for positive growth are identified to be trade openness and financial development rather than schooling.