Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Bioengineered 3D platform to explore cell-ECM interactions and drug resistance of epithelial ovarian cancer cells

The behaviour of cells cultured within three-dimensional (3D) structures rather than onto two-dimensional (2D) culture plastic more closely reflects their in vivo responses. Consequently, 3D culture systems are becoming crucial scientific tools in cancer cell research. We used a novel 3D culture concept to assess cell-matrix interactions implicated in carcinogenesis: a synthetic hydrogel matrix equipped with key biomimetic features, namely incorporated cell integrin-binding motifs (e.g. RGD peptides) and the ability of being degraded by cell-secreted proteases (e.g. matrix metalloproteases). As a cell model, we chose epithelial ovarian cancer, an aggressive disease typically diagnosed at an advanced stage when chemoresistance occurs. Both cell lines used (OV-MZ-6, SKOV-3) proliferated similarly in 2D, but not in 3D. Spheroid formation was observed exclusively in 3D when cells were embedded within hydrogels. By exploiting the design flexibility of the hydrogel characteristics, we showed that proliferation in 3D was dependent on cell-integrin engagement and the ability of cells to proteolytically remodel their extracellular microenvironment. Higher survival rates after exposure to the anti-cancer drug paclitaxel were observed in cell spheroids grown in hydrogels (40-60%) compared to cell monolayers in 2D (20%). Thus, 2D evaluation of chemosensitivity may not reflect pathophysiological events seen in patients. Because of the design flexibility of their characteristics and their stability in long-term cultures (28 days), these biomimetic hydrogels represent alternative culture systems for the increasing demand in cancer research for more versatile, physiologically relevant and reproducible 3D matrices.

Assessing wet crashes for the skid resistance management of road assets

Australia, road crash trauma costs the nation A$15 billion annually whilst the US estimates an economic impact of around US$ 230 billion on its network. Worldwide economic cost of road crashes is estimated to be around US$ 518 billion each year. Road accidents occur due to a number of factors including driver behaviour, geometric alignment, vehicle characteristics, environmental impacts, and the type and condition of the road surfacing. Skid resistance is considered one of the most important road surface characteristics because it has a direct effect on traffic safety. In 2005, Austroads (the Association of Australian and New Zealand Road Transport and Traffic Authorities) published a guideline for the management of skid resistance and Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) developed a skid resistance management plan (SRMP). The current QDMR strategy is based on rationale analytical methodology supported by field inspection with related asset management decision tools. The Austroads’s guideline and QDMR's skid resistance management plan have prompted QDMR to review its skid resistance management practice. As a result, a joint research project involving QDMR, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and the Corporative Research Centre for Integrated Engineering Asset Management (CRC CIEAM) was formed. The research project aims at investigating whether there is significant relationship between road crashes and skid resistance on Queensland’s road networks. If there is, the current skid resistance management practice of QDMR will be reviewed and appropriate skid resistance investigatory levels will be recommended. This paper presents analysis results in assessing the relationship between wet crashes and skid resistance on Queensland roads. Attributes considered in the analysis include surface types, annual average daily traffic (AADT), speed and seal age.

Directional earth fault relay operation in mutually coupled multiple circuit distribution lines

Many of the power utilities around the world experienced spurious tripping of directional earth fault relays in their mesh distribution networks due to induced circulating currents. This circulating current is zero sequence and induced in the healthy circuit due to the zero sequence current flow resulting from a ground fault of a parallel circuit. This paper quantitatively discusses the effects of mutual coupling on earth fault protection of distribution systems. An actual spurious tripping event is analyzed to support the theory and to present options for improved resilience to spurious tripping.

Evaluating Two Mass Screening Methods for Tungro Disease Resistance

Tungro is one of the most destructive viral diseases of rice in South and Southeast Asia. It is associated with two viruses---rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV) ,and rice tungro spherical virus (RTSV) (Hibino et al 1978). Both viruses are transmitted by the green leafhopper (GLH) Nephotettix virescens (Ling 1979), However, prior acquisition of RTSV is required for Ihe transmission of RTBV alone (Hibino 1983). Plants infected with both viruses show severe stunting and yellowing. Those infected with RTBV alone show mild stunting but no leaf discoloration whereas those infected with RTSV alone do not show any apparent symptoms (Hibino el al 1978). Since the late 1960s, tungro has been mainly managed through varietal resistance (Khush 1989). The instability of resistant varieties in the field (Dahal et .a1 1990) led to a reexamination of the nature of the incorporated sources of resistance and to the adoption of more precise and more accurate screening methods.

Mechanism of Resistance to Rice Tungro Spherical Virus (RTSV)

RTSV is one of two viruses that cause tungro disease. RTSV is independently transmitted, whereas the other virus, rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV), is dependent on RTSV for its transmission by the green leafhopper (GLH), Nephotettix virescens. The occurrence and spread of tungro disease therefore depend on the presence of RTSV in the field. Resistance to RTSV infection would slow down the spread of the disease.

Inheritance of Resistance to Rice Tungro Spherical Virus in a Near-Isogenic Line Derived from Utri Merah and in Rice Cultivar TKM6

Resistance to rice virus diseases is an important requirement in many Southeast Asian rice breeding programs. Inheritance of resistance to rice tungro spherical virus (RTSV) in TW5, a near-isogenic line derived from Indonesian rice cultivar Utri Merah, was compared to that in TKM6, an Indian rice cultivar. Both TKM6 and Utri Merah are cultivars resistant to RTSV infections. Crosses were made between TKM6 and TN1, a susceptible cultivar, and between TW5 and TN1, and F3 lines were evaluated for their resistance to RTSV using two RTSV inoculum sources and a serological assay (ELISA). In TKM6, the resistance to the mixture of RTSV-V + RTBV inoculum source was controlled by a single recessive gene, whereas in TW5, the resistance was controlled by two recessive genes. A single recessive gene, however, controlled the resistance in TW5 when another RTSV variant, RTSV-VI, was used, suggesting that the resistance in TW5 depends on the nature of the RTSV inoculum used. RT-PCR, sequence, and phylogenetic analyses confirmed that RTSV-VI inoculum differs from RTSV-V inoculum and accurate phenotyping of the resistance to RTSV requires the use of a genetic marker.

The largest volcanic eruptions on Earth

Large igneous provinces (LIPs) are sites of the most frequently recurring, largest volume basaltic and silicic eruptions in Earth history. These large-volume (N1000 km3 dense rock equivalent) and large-magnitude (NM8) eruptions produce areally extensive (104–105 km2) basaltic lava flow fields and silicic ignimbrites that are the main building blocks of LIPs. Available information on the largest eruptive units are primarily from the Columbia River and Deccan provinces for the dimensions of flood basalt eruptions, and the Paraná–Etendeka and Afro-Arabian provinces for the silicic ignimbrite eruptions. In addition, three large-volume (675– 2000 km3) silicic lava flows have also been mapped out in the Proterozoic Gawler Range province (Australia), an interpreted LIP remnant. Magma volumes of N1000 km3 have also been emplaced as high-level basaltic and rhyolitic sills in LIPs. The data sets indicate comparable eruption magnitudes between the basaltic and silicic eruptions, but due to considerable volumes residing as co-ignimbrite ash deposits, the current volume constraints for the silicic ignimbrite eruptions may be considerably underestimated. Magma composition thus appears to be no barrier to the volume of magma emitted during an individual eruption. Despite this general similarity in magnitude, flood basaltic and silicic eruptions are very different in terms of eruption style, duration, intensity, vent configuration, and emplacement style. Flood basaltic eruptions are dominantly effusive and Hawaiian–Strombolian in style, with magma discharge rates of ~106–108 kg s−1 and eruption durations estimated at years to tens of years that emplace dominantly compound pahoehoe lava flow fields. Effusive and fissural eruptions have also emplaced some large-volume silicic lavas, but discharge rates are unknown, and may be up to an order of magnitude greater than those of flood basalt lava eruptions for emplacement to be on realistic time scales (b10 years). Most silicic eruptions, however, are moderately to highly explosive, producing co-current pyroclastic fountains (rarely Plinian) with discharge rates of 109– 1011 kg s−1 that emplace welded to rheomorphic ignimbrites. At present, durations for the large-magnitude silicic eruptions are unconstrained; at discharge rates of 109 kg s−1, equivalent to the peak of the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption, the largest silicic eruptions would take many months to evacuate N5000 km3 of magma. The generally simple deposit structure is more suggestive of short-duration (hours to days) and high intensity (~1011 kg s−1) eruptions, perhaps with hiatuses in some cases. These extreme discharge rates would be facilitated by multiple point, fissure and/or ring fracture venting of magma. Eruption frequencies are much elevated for large-magnitude eruptions of both magma types during LIP-forming episodes. However, in basaltdominated provinces (continental and ocean basin flood basalt provinces, oceanic plateaus, volcanic rifted margins), large magnitude (NM8) basaltic eruptions have much shorter recurrence intervals of 103–104 years, whereas similar magnitude silicic eruptions may have recurrence intervals of up to 105 years. The Paraná– Etendeka province was the site of at least nine NM8 silicic eruptions over an ~1 Myr period at ~132 Ma; a similar eruption frequency, although with a fewer number of silicic eruptions is also observed for the Afro- Arabian Province. The huge volumes of basaltic and silicic magma erupted in quick succession during LIP events raises several unresolved issues in terms of locus of magma generation and storage (if any) in the crust prior to eruption, and paths and rates of ascent from magma reservoirs to the surface.

Research project for managing skid resistance is on the road

In December 2006, the Engineering and Technology Group of Queensland’s Department of Main Roads entered into a three-year skid resistance management research project with QUT Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering researchers and the QUT-based CRC for Integrated Engineering Asset Management (CIEAM). CIEAM undertakes a broad range of asset management research in the areas of defence, utilities, transportation and industrial processes. “The research project is an important activity of Main Roads’ Skid Resistance Management Plan published in June 2006.” said Main Roads project leader Mr Justin Weligamage. “The intended project output is a decision-support model for use by Road Asset Managers throughout a road network. The research objective is to enable road asset managers to better manage the surfacing condition of the road asset with specific focus on skid resistance,” said QUT project leader Professor Arun Kumar. The research project will review existing skid resistance investigatory levels, develop a risk-based method to establish skid resistance investigatory levels and improve the decision support methodology in order to minimise crashes. The new risk-based approach will be used to identify locations on the Queensland state-controlled road network that may have inadequate skid resistance. Once a high risk site is identified, the appropriate remedial action will be decided on. This approach will allow road asset managers to target optimal remedial actions, reducing the incidence and severity of crashes where inadequate skid resistance is a contributing cause.

Agroinoculation Allows the Screening of Rice for Resistance to Rice Tungro Bacilliform Virus

A system for agroinoculating rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV), one of the two viruses of the rice tungro disease complex, has been optimised. A nontumour-inducing strain of Agrobacterium (pGV3850) was used in order to conform with biosafety regulations. Fourteen-day-old seedlings survived the mechanical damage of the technique and were still young enough to support virus replication. The level of the bacterial inoculum was important to obtain maximum infection, with a high inoculum level (0.5 × 1012 cells/ml) resulting in up to 100% infection of a susceptible variety that was comparable with infection by insect transmission. Agroinoculation with RTBV was successful for all three rice cultivarss tested; TN1 (tungro susceptible), Balimau Putih (tungro tolerant), and IR26 (RTSV and vector resistant). Agroinoculation enables resistance to RTBV to be distinguished from resistance to the leafhopper vector of the virus, and should prove useful in screening rice germplasm, breeding materials, and transgenic rice lines.

Identifying relationship between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes using probability-based risk approach

Road accidents are of great concerns for road and transport departments around world, which cause tremendous loss and dangers for public. Reducing accident rates and crash severity are imperative goals that governments, road and transport authorities, and researchers are aimed to achieve. In Australia, road crash trauma costs the nation A$ 15 billion annually. Five people are killed, and 550 are injured every day. Each fatality costs the taxpayer A$1.7 million. Serious injury cases can cost the taxpayer many times the cost of a fatality. Crashes are in general uncontrolled events and are dependent on a number of interrelated factors such as driver behaviour, traffic conditions, travel speed, road geometry and condition, and vehicle characteristics (e.g. tyre type pressure and condition, and suspension type and condition). Skid resistance is considered one of the most important surface characteristics as it has a direct impact on traffic safety. Attempts have been made worldwide to study the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Most of these studies used the statistical regression and correlation methods in analysing the relationships between skid resistance and road crashes. The outcomes from these studies provided mix results and not conclusive. The objective of this paper is to present a probability-based method of an ongoing study in identifying the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Historical skid resistance and crash data of a road network located in the tropical east coast of Queensland were analysed using the probability-based method. Analysis methodology and results of the relationships between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes are presented.

Using data mining to predict road crash count with a focus on skid resistance values

Road crashes cost world and Australian society a significant proportion of GDP, affecting productivity and causing significant suffering for communities and individuals. This paper presents a case study that generates data mining models that contribute to understanding of road crashes by allowing examination of the role of skid resistance (F60) and other road attributes in road crashes. Predictive data mining algorithms, primarily regression trees, were used to produce road segment crash count models from the road and traffic attributes of crash scenarios. The rules derived from the regression trees provide evidence of the significance of road attributes in contributing to crash, with a focus on the evaluation of skid resistance.

Resistance is hopeless : assimilating queer theory

This paper seeks to assimilate Queer Theory: that is, to bring it within the gambit of a ‘mainstream’ or ‘dominant’ space: the academy. It does so by historicising Queer Theory, and investigating, if not what it is, then at least what it has been. This makes it possible to engage critically with Queer Theory. Suggesting that Queer Theory has often employed tropes of assimilation, the paper turns to another cultural site at which such language is popular - science fiction - in order to investigate the assumption of these metaphors. It goes on to suggest some of the assumptions about cultures which underlie these metaphors. Finally, it points to other sites in Queer Theory which undermines these assumptions, and provide other ways - quite uninterested in assimilation - in which to think Queer.