Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) that includes earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols considering aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects, has been used to investigate the impacts of local and non-local emissions of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The study focuses on the fast responses (including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature feedbacks) to sudden changes in emissions from Asia and Europe. The initial responses, over days 1–40, to Asian and European emissions show large differences. The response to Asian emissions involves a direct impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, with immediate consequences for the shortwave energy budget through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These changes lead to cooling of East Asia and a weakening of the EASM. In contrast, European emissions have no significant impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, but they induce mid-tropospheric cooling and drying over the European sector. Subsequently, however, this cold and dry anomaly is advected into Asia, where it induces atmospheric and surface feedbacks over Asia and the Western North Pacific (WNP), which also weaken the EASM. In spite of very different perturbations to the local aerosol burden in response to Asian and European sulphur dioxide emissions, the large scale pattern of changes in land–sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation and local precipitation over East Asia from days 40 onward exhibits similar structures, indicating a preferred response, and suggesting that emissions from both regions likely contributed to the observed weakening of the EASM. Cooling and drying of the troposphere over Asia, together with warming and moistening over the WNP, reduces the land–sea thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans. This leads to high sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Asia and low SLP anomalies over the WNP, associated with a weakened EASM. In response to emissions from both regions warming and moistening over the WNP plays an important role and determines the time scale of the response.

Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models

Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds.

The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter(PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000–116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US$232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr−1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as having an unintended impact on the regional radiative balance and climate.

Simulação numérica da camada limite planetária na região de Iperó, SP-Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Energy balance optimization of sugarcane crop residual biomass

This work presents a mathematical model for helping mills choose sugarcane varieties for planting. It maximizes crop residual biomass energy balance by considering the difference between generated and consumed energy in the process of transferring this biomass from the field to the processing center; it takes into account enterprise demand restrictions and cane planting area. For this full zero-one linear programming techniques were proposed. The model is viable for choosing sugarcane varieties that would benefit sugarcane production and industrial systems, by reducing crop residue and increasing final energy production. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Reduction of erythroid progenitors in protein-energy malnutrition

Protein-energy malnutrition is a syndrome in which anaemia together with multivitamin and mineral deficiency may be present. The pathophysiological mechanisms involved have not, however, yet been completely elucidated. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the pathophysiological processes that occur in this anaemia in animals that were submitted to protein-energy malnutrition, in particular with respect to Fe concentration and the proliferative activity of haemopoietic cells. For this, histological, histochemical, cell culture and immunophenotyping techniques were used. Two-month-old male Swiss mice were submitted to protein-energy malnutrition with a low-protein diet (20g/kg) compared with control diet (400 g/kg). When the experimental group had attained a 20% loss of their original body weight, the animals from both groups received, intravenously, 20IU erythropoietin every other day for 14 d. Malnourished animals showed a decrease in red blood cells, Hb concentration and reticulocytopenia, as well as severe bone marrow and splenic atrophy. The results for serum Fe, total Fe-binding capacity, transferrin and erythropoietin in malnourished animals were no different from those of the control animals. Fe reserves in the spleen, liver and bone marrow were found to be greater in the malnourished animals. The mixed colony-forming unit assays revealed a smaller production of granulocyte-macrophage colony-forming units, erythroid burst-forming units, erythroid colony-forming units and CD45, CD117, CD119 and CD71 expression in the bone marrow and spleen cells of malnourished animals. These findings suggest that, in this protein-energy malnutrition model, anaemia is not caused by Fe deficiency or erythropoietin deficiency, but is a result of ineffective erythropoiesis.

Solar energy budgets in central Amazonian ecosystems: a comparison between natural forest and bare soil areas

In order to estimate the deforestation consequences on the actual solar energy budget of the Central Amazon Region, two ecosystems of different characteristics were compared. The present conditions of the region were represented by a typical 'terra firme' forest cover located at INPA's Ducke Forest Reserve, where the measurements necessary to evaluate its solar energy balance were carried out. The second ecosystem, simulating a deforested area, was represented by an area about 1.0 ha without natural vegetation and situated in the same Reserve. In this area lysimeters were placed, two of them filled with yellow latosol and two others with quartzose sand soil. Both soils are representative soils in the region. Their water balances were taken into account as well as the other parameters necessary to compute the solar energy balances. The results showed that water loss by evaporation was about 41.8% of the total precipitation in the yellow latosol lysimeters and about 26.4% for the quartzose sand ones. For the forest cover it was estimated an evapotranspiration of 67.9% of the rainfall amount. In relation to solar energy balance calculated for the forest cover, it was found that 83.1% of the total energy incoming to this ecosystem was used by the evapotranspiration process, while the remaining of 16.9% can be taken as sensible heat. For bare soils, 55.1% and 31.8% of the total energy were used as latent heat by yellow latosol and quartzose sand soils, respectively. So, the remaining amounts of 44.9% and 68.2% were related to sensible heat and available to atmospheric air heating of these ecosystems. Such results suggest that a large deforestation of the Amazon Region would have direct consequences on their water and solar radiation balances, with an expected change on the actual climatic conditions of the region. © 1993.

Running behavior and its energy cost in mice selectively bred for high voluntary locomotor activity

Locomotion is central to behavior and intrinsic to many fitnesscritical activities (e.g., migration, foraging), and it competes with other life-history components for energy. However, detailed analyses of how changes in locomotor activity and running behavior affect energy budgets are scarce. We quantified these effects in four replicate lines of house mice that have been selectively bred for high voluntary wheel running (S lines) and in their four nonselected control lines (C lines). We monitored wheel speeds and oxygen consumption for 24-48 h to determine daily energy expenditure (DEE), resting metabolic rate (RMR), locomotor costs, and running behavior (bout characteristics). Daily running distances increased roughly 50%-90% in S lines in response to selection. After we controlled for body mass effects, selection resulted in a 23% increase in DEE in males and a 6% increase in females. Total activity costs (DEE - RMR) accounted for 50%-60% of DEE in both S and C lines and were 29% higher in S males and 5% higher in S females compared with their C counterparts. Energetic costs of increased daily running distances differed between sexes because S females evolved higher running distances by running faster with little change in time spent running, while S males also spent 40% more time running than C males. This increase in time spent running impinged on high energy costs because the majority of running costs stemmed from postural costs (the difference between RMR and the zero-speed intercept of the speed vs. metabolic rate relationship). No statistical differences in these traits were detected between S and C females, suggesting that large changes in locomotor behavior do not necessarily effect overall energy budgets. Running behavior also differed between sexes: within S lines, males ran with more but shorter bouts than females. Our results indicate that selection effects on energy budgets can differ dramatically between sexes and that energetic constraints in S males might partly explain the apparent selection limit for wheel running observed for over 15 generations. © 2009 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

Search for supersymmetry in final states with a single lepton, b-quark jets, and missing transverse energy in proton-proton collisions at √s=7 TeV

A search motivated by supersymmetric models with light top squarks is presented using proton-proton collision data recorded with the CMS detector at a center-of-mass energy of √s=7 TeV during 2011, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.98 fb-1. The analysis is based on final states with a single lepton, b-quark jets, and missing transverse energy. Standard model yields are predicted from data using two different approaches. The observed event numbers are found to be compatible with these predictions. Results are interpreted in the context of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model and of a simplified model with four top quarks in the final state. © 2013 CERN.

New cosmic accelerating scenario without dark energy

We propose an alternative, nonsingular, cosmic scenario based on gravitationally induced particle production. The model is an attempt to evade the coincidence and cosmological constant problems of the standard model (Lambda CDM) and also to connect the early and late time accelerating stages of the Universe. Our space-time emerges from a pure initial de Sitter stage thereby providing a natural solution to the horizon problem. Subsequently, due to an instability provoked by the production of massless particles, the Universe evolves smoothly to the standard radiation dominated era thereby ending the production of radiation as required by the conformal invariance. Next, the radiation becomes subdominant with the Universe entering in the cold dark matter dominated era. Finally, the negative pressure associated with the creation of cold dark matter (CCDM model) particles accelerates the expansion and drives the Universe to a final de Sitter stage. The late time cosmic expansion history of the CCDM model is exactly like in the standard Lambda CDM model; however, there is no dark energy. The model evolves between two limiting (early and late time) de Sitter regimes. All the stages are also discussed in terms of a scalar field description. This complete scenario is fully determined by two extreme energy densities, or equivalently, the associated de Sitter Hubble scales connected by rho(I)/rho(f) = (H-I/H-f)(2) similar to 10(122), a result that has no correlation with the cosmological constant problem. We also study the linear growth of matter perturbations at the final accelerating stage. It is found that the CCDM growth index can be written as a function of the Lambda growth index, gamma(Lambda) similar or equal to 6/11. In this framework, we also compare the observed growth rate of clustering with that predicted by the current CCDM model. Performing a chi(2) statistical test we show that the CCDM model provides growth rates that match sufficiently well with the observed growth rate of structure.

Modeling of deep-convective

Deep convection by pyro-cumulonimbus clouds (pyroCb) can transport large amounts of forest fire smoke into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Here, results from numerical simulations of such deep convective smoke transport are presented. The structure, shape and injection height of the pyroCb simulated for a specific case study are in good agreement with observations. The model results confirm that substantial amounts of smoke are injected into the lower stratosphere. Small-scale mixing processes at the cloud top result in a significant enhancement of smoke injection into the stratosphere. Sensitivity studies show that the release of sensible heat by the fire plays an important role for the dynamics of the pyroCb. Furthermore, the convection is found to be very sensitive to background meteorological conditions. While the abundance of aerosol particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) has a strong influence on the microphysical structure of the pyroCb, the CCN effect on the convective dynamics is rather weak. The release of latent heat dominates the overall energy budget of the pyroCb. Since most of the cloud water originates from moisture entrained from the background atmosphere, the fire-released moisture contributes only minor to convection dynamics. Sufficient fire heating, favorable meteorological conditions, and small-scale mixing processes at the cloud top are identified as the key ingredients for troposphere-to-stratosphere transport by pyroCb convection.

Numerical coupling of thermal-electric network models and energy-transport equations including optoelectronic semiconductor devices

In this work the numerical coupling of thermal and electric network models with model equations for optoelectronic semiconductor devices is presented. Modified nodal analysis (MNA) is applied to model electric networks. Thermal effects are modeled by an accompanying thermal network. Semiconductor devices are modeled by the energy-transport model, that allows for thermal effects. The energy-transport model is expandend to a model for optoelectronic semiconductor devices. The temperature of the crystal lattice of the semiconductor devices is modeled by the heat flow eqaution. The corresponding heat source term is derived under thermodynamical and phenomenological considerations of energy fluxes. The energy-transport model is coupled directly into the network equations and the heat flow equation for the lattice temperature is coupled directly into the accompanying thermal network. The coupled thermal-electric network-device model results in a system of partial differential-algebraic equations (PDAE). Numerical examples are presented for the coupling of network- and one-dimensional semiconductor equations. Hybridized mixed finite elements are applied for the space discretization of the semiconductor equations. Backward difference formluas are applied for time discretization. Thus, positivity of charge carrier densities and continuity of the current density is guaranteed even for the coupled model.

On the accuracy of Software-based Energy Estimation Techniques

This paper examines the accuracy of software-based on-line energy estimation techniques. It evaluates today’s most widespread energy estimation model in order to investigate whether the current methodology of pure software-based energy estimation running on a sensor node itself can indeed reliably and accurately determine its energy consumption - independent of the particular node instance, the traffic load the node is exposed to, or the MAC protocol the node is running. The paper enhances today’s widely used energy estimation model by integrating radio transceiver switches into the model, and proposes a methodology to find the optimal estimation model parameters. It proves by statistical validation with experimental data that the proposed model enhancement and parameter calibration methodology significantly increases the estimation accuracy.