Fuel consumption study. Urban traffic control system (UTCS) software support project. Final report.

Federal Energy Administration, Office of Transportation Policy and Research, Washington, D.C.

Highway fuel consumption computer model (version I). Final report.

Transportation Department, Washington, D.C.

Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Modelling knowledge production performance of research centres with a focus on triple bottom line benchmarking

We demonstrate a portable process for developing a triple bottom line model to measure the knowledge production performance of individual research centres. For the first time, this study also empirically illustrates how a fully units-invariant model of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) can be used to measure the relative efficiency of research centres by capturing the interaction amongst a common set of multiple inputs and outputs. This study is particularly timely given the increasing transparency required by governments and industries that fund research activities. The process highlights the links between organisational objectives, desired outcomes and outputs while the emerging performance model represents an executive managerial view. This study brings consistency to current measures that often rely on ratios and univariate analyses that are not otherwise conducive to relative performance analysis.

Estimating variable returns to scale production frontiers with alternative stochastic assumptions

Two stochastic production frontier models are formulated within the generalized production function framework popularized by Zellner and Revankar (Rev. Econ. Stud. 36 (1969) 241) and Zellner and Ryu (J. Appl. Econometrics 13 (1998) 101). This framework is convenient for parsimonious modeling of a production function with returns to scale specified as a function of output. Two alternatives for introducing the stochastic inefficiency term and the stochastic error are considered. In the first the errors are added to an equation of the form h(log y, theta) = log f (x, beta) where y denotes output, x is a vector of inputs and (theta, beta) are parameters. In the second the equation h(log y,theta) = log f(x, beta) is solved for log y to yield a solution of the form log y = g[theta, log f(x, beta)] and the errors are added to this equation. The latter alternative is novel, but it is needed to preserve the usual definition of firm efficiency. The two alternative stochastic assumptions are considered in conjunction with two returns to scale functions, making a total of four models that are considered. A Bayesian framework for estimating all four models is described. The techniques are applied to USDA state-level data on agricultural output and four inputs. Posterior distributions for all parameters, for firm efficiencies and for the efficiency rankings of firms are obtained. The sensitivity of the results to the returns to scale specification and to the stochastic specification is examined. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A machine learning approach to intraday trading on foreign exchange markets

Foreign Exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. In this paper we try to create such a system using Machine learning approach to emulate trader behaviour on the Foreign Exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.

Inscribing the organization:representations in dispute between accounting and production

This paper assumes that a primary function of management accounting is the representation of "accounting facts" for purposes such as organizational control. Accountants are able to offer conventional techniques of control, such as standard costing, as a consequence of their ability to deploy accounting representations within managerial and economic models of organizational processes. Accounting competes, at times, with other 'professional' groups, such as production planning or quality management people, in this role of representing the organization to management. The paper develops its arguments around a case illustration of cost accounting set in a low technology manufacturing environment. The research relates to a case organization in which accountants are attempting to establish the reliability of accounting inscriptions of a simple manufacturing process. The case research focuses on the documents, the inscriptions that vie for managements' attention. It is these sometimes messy and inaccurate representations which enable control of complex and heterogeneous activities at a distance. At the end of our site visits we observe quality management systems in the ascendancy over the accountants' standard costing systems. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The design, evaluation and costing of biomass gasifiers

The objective of this study has been to enable a greater understanding of the biomass gasification process through the development and use of process and economic models. A new theoretical equilibrium model of gasification is described using the operating condition called the adiabatic carbon boundary. This represents an ideal gasifier working at the point where the carbon in the feedstock is completely gasified. The model can be used as a `target' against which the results of real gasifiers can be compared, but it does not simulate the results of real gasifiers. A second model has been developed which uses a stagewise approach in order to model fluid bed gasification, and its results have indicated that pyrolysis and the reactions of pyrolysis products play an important part in fluid bed gasifiers. Both models have been used in sensitivity analyses: the biomass moisture content and gasifying agent composition were found to have the largest effects on performance, whilst pressure and heat loss had lesser effects. Correlations have been produced to estimate the total installed capital cost of gasification systems and have been used in an economic model of gasification. This has been used in a sensitivity analysis to determine the factors which most affect the profitability of gasification. The most important influences on gasifier profitability have been found to be feedstock cost, product selling price and throughput. Given the economic conditions of late 1985, refuse gasification for the production of producer gas was found to be viable at throughputs of about 2.5 tonnes/h dry basis and above, in the metropolitan counties of the United Kingdom. At this throughput and above, the largest element of product gas cost is the feedstock cost, the cost element which is most variable.

Investement appraisal in a deregulated electricity market

This thesis analyses the impact of deregulation on the theory and practice of investment decision making in the electricity sector and appraises the likely effects on its long term future inefficiency. Part I describes the market and its shortcomings in promoting an optimal generation margin and plant mix and in reducing prices through competition. A full size operational model is developed to simulate hour by hour operation of the market and analyse its features. A relationship is established between the SMP and plant mix and between the LOLP and plant margin and it is shown bow a theoretical optimum can be derived when the combined LOLP payments and the capital costs of additional generation reach a minimum. A comparison of prices against an idealised bulk supply tariff is used to show how energy prices have risen some 12% in excess of what might have occurred under the CEGB regime. This part concludes with proposals to improve the marleconomic models are developed to represent different market conditions and these are tested against the actual investment decisions since deregulation to demonstrate their appropriateness. It is shown that the current market mechanisms could lead to suboptimal investment. Part 3 discusses the essential role of transmission in enabling competition and reviews worldwide practices illustrating little consensus on charging for its use. Basic costing principles are described and a new model is developed to demonstrate bow a generator may strike supply agreements either side of an interconnector to influence prices so as to maximise his income. The optimal pricing strategy for the transmitter is also derived and consumer response is simulated .The concept of transmission uplift is developed and the operational model is extended to include transmission constraints and then used to establish monthly incremental transmission constraint cost functions. It is shown how these can be used to appraise investment options and optimally plan outages. Part 4 concludes by discussing the regulatory framework and its limitations in improving efficiency or encouraging the optimum levels of investment. The principal findings of the thesis are reviewed and potential market improvement are described. This part concludes with a discussion of alternative market structures and likely future developments.

Creativity and innovation:the role of team and organizational climate

This chapter argues that creative, innovative organizations are places where there is a firm and shared belief among most members in an inspirational vision of what the organization is trying to achieve. There is a high level of interaction, discussion, constructive debate, and influence among the members of the organization as they go about their work. Trust, cooperative orientations, and a sense of interpersonal safety characterize interpersonal and intergroup relationships. Members of the organization, particularly those at the upper echelons (and there are few echelons) are consistently positive and open to members' ideas for new and improved ways of working, providing both encouragement and the resources for innovation. Creativity is heralded as key for organizational survival and success. As global economic models become the norm and competitiveness assumes an international character, leaders realize that, in order to prosper in a highly challenging environment, companies must innovate. The source of organizational innovation is unquestionably the ideas generated by individuals and teams. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Solving Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey System with Constant Effort Harvesting using Variational Iteration Method

Due to wide range of interest in use of bio-economic models to gain insight into the scientific management of renewable resources like fisheries and forestry,variational iteration method (VIM) is employed to approximate the solution of the ratio-dependent predator-prey system with constant effort prey harvesting.The results are compared with the results obtained by Adomian decomposition method and reveal that VIM is very effective and convenient for solving nonlinear differential equations.

Hospital accounting and the history of health-care rationing

Focussing on the period from 1948 to 1997, this paper examines the history of rationing in the British National Health Service (NHS), with special reference to the role of hospital accounting in this context. The paper suggests that concerns regarding rationing first emerged in the 1960s and 1970s in response to the application of economic theories to the health services, and that rationing only became an issue of wider concern when the NHS increasingly came to resemble economic models of health services in the early 1990s. The paper moreover argues that, unlike in the USA, hospital accounting did not play a significant role in allocating or withholding health resources in Britain. Rudimentary information systems as well as resistance from medical professionals are identified as significant factors in this context.