Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Ocean acidification decreases the light-use efficiency in an Antarctic diatom under dynamic but not constant light, link to supplementary data

There is increasing evidence that different light intensities strongly modulate the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on marine phytoplankton. The aim of the present study was to investigate interactive effects of OA and dynamic light, mimicking natural mixing regimes. The Antarctic diatom Chaetoceros debilis was grown under two pCO2 (390 and 1000 latm) and light conditions (constant and dynamic), the latter yielding the same integrated irradiance over the day. To characterize interactive effects between treatments, growth, elemental composition, primary production and photophysiology were investigated. Dynamic light reduced growth and strongly altered the effects of OA on primary production, being unaffected by elevated pCO2 under constant light, yet significantly reduced under dynamic light. Interactive effects between OA and light were also observed for Chl production and particulate organic carbon (POC) quotas. Response patterns can be explained by changes in the cellular energetic balance. While the energy transfer efficiency from photochemistry to biomass production (Phi_e,C) was not affected by OA under constant light, it was drastically reduced under dynamic light. Contrasting responses under different light conditions need to be considered when making predictions regarding a more stratified and acidified future ocean.

Mesopelagic fish abundance and particle size spectrum analysis from Maria S. Merian cruise MSM26, spring 2013

One of the goals of EU BASIN is to understand variability in production across the Atlantic and the impact of this variability on higher trophic levels. One aspect of these investigations is to examine the biomes defined by Longhurst (2007). These biomes are largely based on productivity measured with remote sensing. During MSM 26, mesopelagic fish and size-spectrum data were collected to test the biome classifications of the north Atlantic. In most marine systems, the size-spectrum is a decay function with more, smaller organisms and fewer larger organisms. The intercept of the size-spectrum has been linked to overall productivity while the slope represents the "rate of decay" of this productivity (Zhou 2006, doi:10.1093/plankt/fbi119). A Laser In-Situ Scattering Transmissometer was used to collect size-spectrum data and net collections were made to capture mesopelagic fish. The relationship among the mesopelagic fish size and abundance distributions will be compared to the estimates of production from the size-spectrum data to evaluate the biomes of the stations occupied during MSM 26.

In-situ geotechnical measurements with the dynamic penetrometer Nimrod on the continental shelf off the Coromandel Peninsula, New Zealand

We tested the ability of a small dynamic penetrometer, Nimrod, to infer geotechnical properties of sediment mixtures in the inner shelf. The penetrometer is light and easy to operate, and its operation by scuba divers ensures a greater degree of precision than ship-based penetrometer deployments. We have studied selected positions along a sorted bedform (~ 100 m wide) on the continental shelf off the Coromandel Peninsula close to Tairua, North Island of New Zealand, and additionally took sediment samples at the exact positions of penetrometer impact, also by scuba divers. The derived dynamic penetrometer signatures (i) measured deceleration of the probe and estimated quasi-static bearing capacity as a measure of sediment strength, (ii) reflected changes in grain-size distribution ranging from very fine to very coarse sands, and (iii) revealed the uppermost seafloor stratification (top layer 2-6 cm) potentially being an indicator for sediment dynamics. In this manner, the device proved to be suitable for spatially fine-scaled surveys using divers' support and might deliver complementary information about sediment dynamics, in this case sorted-bedform maintenance.

Nimrod (dynamic penetrometer) measurements of a sandbar at Raglan, New Zealand in 2009

Dynamic penetrometer data obtained with the Nimrod penetrometer (MARUM). Data is presented as (i) penetration depth (including for different layers if present), (ii) measured deceleration and (iv) estimated quasi-static bearing capacity including range of uncertainty due to the processing method. Lat/Long coordinates are given.