Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Gender differences in bone geometry during the adolescent growth spurt

To investigate whether there are gender differences in the bone geometry of the proximal femur during the adolescent years we used an interactive computer program ?Hip Strength Analysis? developed by Beck and associates (Beck et al., Invest Radiol. 1990,25:6-18.) to derive femoral neck geometry parameters from DXA bone scans (Hologic 2000, array mode). We analyzed a longitudinal data-set collected on 70 boys and 68 girls over a seven year period. Distance and velocity curves for height were fitted for each child utilizing a cubic spline procedure and the age of peak height velocity (PHV) was determined. To control for maturational differences between children of the same chronological age and between boys and girls, section modulus (Z) an index of bending strength, cross sectional area of bone (CSA), sub-periosteal width (SPW), and BMD values at the neck and shaft of the proximal femur were determined for points on each individual?s curve at the age of PHV and one and two years on either side of peak. To control for size differences, height and weight were introduced as co-variates in the two-way analyses of variance looking at gender over time measured at the maturational age points (-2, -1, age of PHV, +1, +2). The following figure presents the results of the analyses on two variables, BMD and Z at neck and shaft regions:After the age of peak linear growth (PHV), independent of body size, there was a gender difference in BMD at the shaft but not at the neck. Section modulus at both sites indicated that male bones became significantly stronger after PHV. Underlying these maturational changes, male bones became wider (SPW) after PHV in both the neck and shaft and enclosed more material (CSA) at all maturational age points at both regions. These results call into question the emphasis on using BMD as a measure of skeletal integrity in growing children

The Internationalization Process as Generator Element of Dynamic Capacities: the case of WEG in Argentina and China

The objective of he article is to research the dynamic capacities developed and used by WEG in its internationalization process and to explain how these capacities help the company defends and supports competitive advantage. The article presents an exploratory study of the internationalization process of WEG in Argentina and China. This article has as analysis approach the dynamic capacities, contributes to the literature of international management in two aspects. First, it adds the analytical look of the internationalization based on dynamic capacities that are still well restricted. Second, when working the dynamic capacities as central element of the analysis of the internationalization process, it Proposes one framework of integrative analysis of the economic and behavioral theories that are used to explain the process of companies`-internationalization, although they are dealt independently and sometimes antagonistic way. The result shows as the dynamic capacities are articulated in the base of WEG in its process of internationalization for Argentina and the subsequent movement for China. The developed dynamic capacities in Argentina were acquired for the Brazilian headquarter and could have been applied in the process of internationalization for China. However, a more complex organizational structure cannot be identified where the inter-subsidiary relationships could share dynamic capacities as proposed in framework.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal dynamic of the relationship between the parasitic isopod Aporobopyrus curtatus (Crustacea: Isopoda: Bopyridae) and the anomuran crab Petrolisthes armatus (Crustacea: Decapoda: Porcellanidae) in southern Brazil

The prevalence of the parasite Aporobopyrus curtatus in Petrolisthes armatus from southern Brazil was determined, and the effect the parasite had on host reproduction was evaluated. Of all 775 crabs sampled in Araca region from March 2005 to July 2006, 3.2% presented bopyrid parasites. All the parasitized individuals had one branchial chamber occupied by two mature parasites, with no preference for the right or left chamber. Male and female hosts were infested in equal proportions. Parasitized juveniles, large individuals and ovigerous females were not found in our study. The absence of parasitized ovigerous females seems to be insufficient evidence to support the hypothesis of parasitic castration and would require a histological study to confirm their reproductive death. The percentage of infestation observed in our study (3.1%) is lower than the one found in other studies and it could indicate the existence of factor(s) regulating the density of A. curtatus in the Araca region. At least in this population, the low but constant presence of the bopyrid A. curtatus population did not appear to have a negative effect on the porcellanid population, and parasitized individuals did not play a significant role in the natural history of P. armatus.

Dynamic susceptibility investigation of maghemite nanoparticles incorporated in bovine serum albumin template

Room-temperature measurements of the magnetic susceptibility of Bovine Serum Albumin-based nanocapsules (50 to 300 nm in size) loaded with different amounts of maghemite nanoparticles (7.6 nm average diameter) have been carried out in this study The field (H) dependence of the imaginary peak susceptibility (f(P)) of the nanocomposite samples was investigated in the range of 0 to 4 kOe. From the analysis of the f(P) x H curves the concentration (N) dependence of the effective maghemite magnetocrystalline energy barrier (E) was obtained. Analysis of the E x N data was performed using a modified Morup-Tronc [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 3278 (1994)] model, from which a huge contribution from the magnetocrystalline surface anisotropy was observed.

Credit assignment: The memory representation of dynamic task events

The experiment examined the influence of memory for prior instances on aircraft conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of similar aircraft repeatedly conflict with each other. Performance improvements suggest that participants credited the conflict status of familiar aircraft pairs to repeated static features such as speed, and dynamic features such as aircraft relative position. Participants missed conflicts when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. Participants either did not attend to, or interpret, the bearing of aircraft correctly as a result of false memory-based expectations. Implications for instance models and situational awareness in dynamic systems are discussed.

Dynamic strain measurement using piezoelectric polymer film

Piezoelectric polymers have been used to form the basis of dynamic strain gauges for the detection of stress waves. The linearity of response was tested using a split Hopkinson pressure bar arrangement. The results obtained illustrate the effectiveness of piezoelectric film strain gauges in the measurement of axial stress waves.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Solution structure of the sodium channel antagonist conotoxin GS: A new molecular caliper for probing sodium channel geometry

Background: The venoms of Conus snails contain small, disulfide-rich inhibitors of voltage-dependent sodium channels. Conotoxin GS is a 34-residue polypeptide isolated from Conus geographus that interacts with the extracellular entrance of skeletal muscle sodium channels to prevent sodium ion conduction. Although conotoxin GS binds competitively with mu conotoxin GIIIA to the sodium channel surface, the two toxin types have little sequence identity with one another, and conotoxin GS has a four-loop structural framework rather than the characteristic three-loop mu-conotoxin framework. The structural study of conotoxin GS will form the basis for establishing a structure-activity relationship and understanding its interaction with the pore region of sodium channels. Results: The three-dimensional structure of conotoxin GS was determined using two-dimensional NMR spectroscopy. The protein exhibits a compact fold incorporating a beta hairpin and several turns. An unusual feature of conotoxin GS is the exceptionally high proportion (100%) of cis-imide bond geometry for the three proline or hydroxyproline residues. The structure of conotoxin GS bears little resemblance to the three-loop mu conotoxins, consistent with the low sequence identity between the two toxin types and their different structural framework. However, the tertiary structure and cystine-knot motif formed by the three disulfide bonds is similar to that present in several other polypeptide ion channel inhibitors. Conclusions: This is the first three-dimensional structure of a 'four-loop' sodium channel inhibitor, and it represents a valuable new structural probe for the pore region of voltage-dependent sodium channels. The distribution of amino acid sidechains in the structure creates several polar and charged patches, and comparison with the mu conotoxins provides a basis for determining the binding surface of the conotoxin GS polypeptide.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

Implications of prevalent and incident diabetes mellitus on left ventricular geometry and function in the ageing heart: The MONICA/KORA Augsburg cohort study

Background and Aim: It is unclear to what extent diabetes modulates the ageing-related adaptations of cardiac geometry and function. Methods and Results: We examined 1005 adults, aged 25-74 years, from a population-based survey at baseline in 1994/5 and at follow-up in 2004/5. We compared persistently non-diabetic individuals (ND; no diabetes at baseline and at follow-up, n = 833) with incident (ID; non-diabetic at baseline and diabetic at follow-up, n = 36) and with prevalent diabetics (PD; diabetes at baseline and follow-up examination, n = 21). Left ventricular (LV) geometry and function were evaluated by echocardiography. Statistical analyses were performed with multivariate linear regression models. Over ten years the PD group displayed a significantly stronger relative increase of LV mass (+9.34% vs. +23.7%) that was mediated by a more pronounced increase of LV end-diastolic diameter (+0% vs. +6.95%) compared to the ND group. In parallel, LA diameter increased (+4.50% vs. +12.7%), whereas ejection fraction decreased (+3.02% vs. -4.92%) more significantly in the PD group. Moreover, at the follow-up examination the PD and ID groups showed a significantly worse diastolic function, indicated by a higher E/EM ratio compared with the ND group (11.6 and 11.8 vs. 9.79, respectively). Conclusions: Long-standing diabetes was associated with an acceleration of age-related changes of left ventricular geometry accumulating in an eccentric remodelling of the left ventricle. Likewise, echocardiographic measures of systolic and diastolic ventricular function deteriorated more rapidly in individuals with diabetes. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systemic lupus erythematosus exhibits a dynamic and continuum spectrum of effector/regulatory T cells

Objective: The identification of regulatory T cells (Treg cells) as CD4(+)CD25(high) cells may be upset by the increased frequency of activated effector T cells (Teff cells) in inflammatory diseases such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed to evaluate the frequency of T-cell subsets according to the expression of CD25 and CD127 in active (A-SLE) and inactive SLE (I-SLE). Methods: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 26 A-SLE patients (SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) = 10.17 +/- 3.7), 31 I-SLE patients (SLEDAI = 0), and 26 healthy controls (HC) were analysed by multicolour flow. cytometry. Results: CD25(high) cell frequency was increased in A-SLE (5.2 +/- 5.7%) compared to I-SLE (3.4 +/- 3.4%) and HC (1.73 +/- 0.8%) (p < 0.01). However, the percentage of FoxP3(+) cells in the CD25(high) subset was decreased in A-SLE (24.6 +/- 16.4%) compared to I-SLE (33.7 +/- 16) and HC (45 +/- 25.1%) (p < 0.01). This was partly due to the increased frequency of Teff cells (CD25(high)CD127(+)FoxP3(empty set)) in A-SLE (10.7 +/- 7.3%) compared to I-SLE (8.5 +/- 6.5) and HC (6.1 +/- 1.8%) (p = 0.02). Hence the frequency of Treg cells (CD25(+/high)CD127(low/empty set)FoxP3(+)) was equivalent in A-SLE (1.4 +/- 0.8%), I-SLE (1.37 +/- 1.0%), and HC (1.13 +/- 0.59%) (p = 0.42). A-SLE presented an increased frequency of CD25(+)CD127(+)FoxP3(+) and CD25(empty set)FoxP3(+)CD127(low/empty set) T cells, which may represent intermediate phenotypes between Treg and Teff cells. Conclusions: The present study has provided data supporting normal Treg cell frequency in A-SLE and I-SLE as well as increased frequency of Teff cells in A-SLE. This scenario reflects a Treg/Teff ratio imbalance that may favour the inflammatory phenotype of the disease. In addition, the increased frequency of T cells with putative intermediate phenotypes may be compatible with a highly dynamic immune system in SLE.