Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

Estimating Lorenz's reference state in an ocean with a nonlinear equation of state for seawater

The study of the mechanical energy budget of the oceans using Lorenz available potential energy (APE) theory is based on knowledge of the adiabatically re-arranged Lorenz reference state of minimum potential energy. The compressible and nonlinear character of the equation of state for seawater has been thought to cause the reference state to be ill-defined, casting doubt on the usefulness of APE theory for investigating ocean energetics under realistic conditions. Using a method based on the volume frequency distribution of parcels as a function of temperature and salinity in the context of the seawater Boussinesq approximation, which we illustrate using climatological data, we show that compressibility effects are in fact minor. The reference state can be regarded as a well defined one-dimensional function of depth, which forms a surface in temperature, salinity and density space between the surface and the bottom of the ocean. For a very small proportion of water masses, this surface can be multivalued and water parcels can have up to two statically stable levels in the reference density profile, of which the shallowest is energetically more accessible. Classifying parcels from the surface to the bottom gives a different reference density profile than classifying in the opposite direction. However, this difference is negligible. We show that the reference state obtained by standard sorting methods is equivalent, though computationally more expensive, to the volume frequency distribution approach. The approach we present can be applied systematically and in a computationally efficient manner to investigate the APE budget of the ocean circulation using models or climatological data.

Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) that includes earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols considering aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects, has been used to investigate the impacts of local and non-local emissions of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The study focuses on the fast responses (including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature feedbacks) to sudden changes in emissions from Asia and Europe. The initial responses, over days 1–40, to Asian and European emissions show large differences. The response to Asian emissions involves a direct impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, with immediate consequences for the shortwave energy budget through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These changes lead to cooling of East Asia and a weakening of the EASM. In contrast, European emissions have no significant impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, but they induce mid-tropospheric cooling and drying over the European sector. Subsequently, however, this cold and dry anomaly is advected into Asia, where it induces atmospheric and surface feedbacks over Asia and the Western North Pacific (WNP), which also weaken the EASM. In spite of very different perturbations to the local aerosol burden in response to Asian and European sulphur dioxide emissions, the large scale pattern of changes in land–sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation and local precipitation over East Asia from days 40 onward exhibits similar structures, indicating a preferred response, and suggesting that emissions from both regions likely contributed to the observed weakening of the EASM. Cooling and drying of the troposphere over Asia, together with warming and moistening over the WNP, reduces the land–sea thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans. This leads to high sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Asia and low SLP anomalies over the WNP, associated with a weakened EASM. In response to emissions from both regions warming and moistening over the WNP plays an important role and determines the time scale of the response.

Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models

Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter(PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000–116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US$232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr−1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as having an unintended impact on the regional radiative balance and climate.

Downward longwave radiation estimates for clear and all-sky conditions in the Sertozinho region of So Paulo, Brazil

The accurate estimate of the surface longwave fluxes contribution is important for the calculation of the surface radiation budget, which in turn controls all the components of the surface energy budget, such as evaporation and the sensible heat fluxes. This study evaluates the performance of the various downward longwave radiation parameterizations for clear and all-sky days applied to the Sertozinho region in So Paulo, Brazil. Equations have been adjusted to the observations of longwave radiation. The adjusted equations were evaluated for every hour throughout the day and the results showed good fits for most of the day, except near dawn and sunset, followed by nighttime. The seasonal variation was studied by comparing the dry period against the rainy period in the dataset. The least square linear regressions resulted in coefficients equal to the coefficients found for the complete period, both in the dry period and in the rainy period. It is expected that the best fit equation to the observed data for this site be used to produce estimates in other regions of the State of So Paulo, where such information is not available.

System size dependence of associated yields in hadron-triggered jets STAR Collaboration

We present results on the system size dependence of high transverse momentum di-hadron correlations at root s(NN) = 200 GeV as measured by STAR at RHIC. Measurements in d + Au, Cu + Cu and Au + Au collisions reveal similar jet-like near-side correlation yields (correlations at small angular separation Delta phi similar to 0, Delta eta similar to 0) for all systems and centralities. Previous measurements have shown Chat the away-side (Delta phi similar to pi) yield is suppressed in heavy-ion collisions. We present measurements of the away-side Suppression as a function of transverse momentum and centrality in Cu + Cu and Au + Au collisions. The suppression is found to be similar in Cu + Cu and An + An collisions at a similar number of participants. The results are compared to theoretical calculations based on the patron quenching model and the modified fragmentation model. The observed differences between data and theory indicate that the correlated yields presented here will further constrain dynamic energy loss models and provide information about the dynamic density profile in heavy-ion collisions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aspectos da biologia reprodutiva de Eretmochelys imbricata (testudines, cheloniidae) no litoral sul do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Female hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting along the southeastcoastline of Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil (6º13'40"S, 35º03'05"W) were captured and weighed during the four months from January to April 2007, in the course of the annual egglaying season, which extended from 06 rd November 2006 to 30 rd May 2007. In all, 99 weight measurements were performed. On first contact the females exhibited an average post-oviposition weight of 79.1 kg (range 56.2-98.9 kg, SD = 10.9 kg, n = 44 females). Those individuals which were subsequently recaptured showed a mean weight loss of 1.7 kg (range 0.7-4.5 kg, SD = 1.0 kg, n = 39 sets of measurements on 20 females) in the interval between two consecutive post-ovipositions, separated by a maximum time interval of 17 days. In the cases where the female aborted the nesting process, the pre-oviposition weight was measured. The clutch weight, that is to say, the weight loss between consecutive pre-oviposition and post-oviposition measurements (separated by a maximum time interval of 3 days), was found to be 5.2 kg (range 4.3-6.0 kg, SD = 0.9 kg, n = 6 sets of measurements). This value is significantly higher (t-test, p<0.001) than the loss between two consecutive post-oviposition measurements with the same female. The mean recovery in body weight, that is to say, the average gain in weight between successive post-oviposition and pre-oviposition captures of the same individual (separated by a time interval of 12 to 17 days), was found to be 3.0 kg (range 1.9-4.3 kg, SD = 1.0 kg, n = 4 sets of measurements) Although the small sample size makes it unwise to generalise, the recovery in body weight was found to be always significantly lower (t-test, p<0.005) than the clutch weight. This fact is in agreement with the observed weight loss tendency throughout the breeding season for this species. Considering the clutch weight and the internidal recovery in body weight we found that the total weight loss of the adult hawksbill females after three to five nesting events varied from 10.4% (range 8.7-11.9%, SD = 1.6%, n = 3) to 14.1% (range 11.8-15.4%, SD = 1.3%, n = 6) in relation to their initial pre-oviposition weight. If there were no body weight recovery during the internesting interval we estimate that a female that nests three to five times in the course of the season would lose from 19% to 31% of its initial weight. We emphasise that our clutch weight estimate was performed by weighing the females and not by multiplying the number of eggs in the nest by their average unit weight. In this way, our measurements take into account the loss of liquid during the oviposition. Despite the unequivocal evidence of body weight recovery during the internidal interval, it is not clear if the cause of this process is rehydration or feeding

Intercomparison of integrated water vapor estimates from multisensors in the amazonian region

Water vapor is an atmospheric component of major interest in atmospheric science because it affects the energy budget and plays a key role in several atmospheric processes. The Amazonian region is one of the most humid on the planet, and land use change is able to affect the hydrologic cycle in several areas and consequently to generate severe modifications in the global climate. Within this context, accessing the error associated with atmospheric humidity measurement and the validation of the integrated water vapor (IWV) quantification from different techniques is very important in this region. Using data collected during the Radiation, Cloud, and Climate Interactions in Amazonia during the Dry-to-Wet Transition Season (RACCI/DRY-TO-WET), an experiment carried out in southwestern Amazonia in 2002, this paper presents quality analysis of IWV measurements from RS80 radiosondes, a suite of GPS receivers, an Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) solar radiometer, and humidity sounding from the Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB) aboard the Aqua satellite. When compared to RS80 IWV values, the root-mean-square (RMS) from the AERONET and GPS results are of the order of 2.7 and 3.8 kg m(-2), respectively. The difference generated between IWV from the GPS receiver and RS80 during the daytime was larger than that of the nighttime period because of the combination of the influence of high ionospheric activity during the RACCI experiment and a daytime drier bias from the RS80.

Analysis of relative humidity sensors at the WMO Radiosonde intercomparison experiment in Brazil

The quality of the vertical distribution measurements of humidity in the atmosphere is very important in meteorology due to the crucial role that water vapor plays in the earth's energy budget. The radiosonde is the humidity measurement device that provides the best vertical resolution. Also, radiosondes are the operational devices that are used to measure the vertical profile of atmospheric water vapor. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has carried out several intercomparison experiments at different climatic zones in order to identify the differences between the available commercial sensors. This article presents the results of an experiment that was carried out in Brazil in 2001 in which major commercial radiosonde manufacturers [e.g., Graw Radiosondes GmbH & Co., KG (Germany); MODEM (France); InterMet Systems (United States); Sippican, Inc. (United States); and Vaisala (Finland)] were involved. One of the main goals of this experiment was to evaluate the performance of the different humidity sensors in a tropical region. This evaluation was performed for different atmospheric layers and distinct periods of the day. It also considers the computation of the integrated water vapor (IWV). The results showed that the humidity measurements achieved by the different sensors were quite similar in the low troposphere (the bias median value regarding the RS80 was around 1.8%) and were quite dispersed in the superior layers (the median rms regarding the RS80 was around 14.9%).

Bioaccumulation of chlorinated pesticides and PCBs in the tropical freshwater fish Hoplias malabaricus: Histopathological, physiological, and immunological findings

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Simulação numérica da camada limite planetária na região de Iperó, SP-Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The relationship between diet quality and basal metabolic rate in endotherms: Insights from intraspecific analysis

In this article, we review intraspecific studies of basal metabolic rate (BMR) that address the correlation between diet quality and BMR. The food-habit hypothesis stands as one of the most striking and often-mentioned interspecific patterns to emerge from studies of endothermic energetics. Our main emphasis is the explicit empirical comparison of predictions derived from interspecific studies with data gathered from within-species studies in order to explore the mechanisms and functional significance of the putative adaptive responses encapsulated by the food-habit hypothesis. We suggest that, in addition to concentrating on the relationship among diet quality, internal morphology, and BMR, new studies should also attempt to unravel alternative mechanisms that shape the interaction between diet and BMR, such as enzymatic plasticity, and the use of energy-saving mechanisms, such as torpor. Another avenue for future study is the measurement of the effects of diet quality on other components of the energy budget, such as maximum thermogenic and sustainable metabolic rates. It is possible that the effects of diet quality operate on such components rather than directly on BMR, which might then push or pull along changes in these traits. Results from intraspecific studies suggest that the factors responsible for the association between diet and BMR at an ecological timescale might not be the same as those that promoted the evolution of this correlation. Further analyses should consider how much of a role the proximate and ultimate processes have played in the evolution of BMR.