Conditional distribution modeling for estimating and exploiting uncertainty in control systems

This paper presents a general methodology for estimating and incorporating uncertainty in the controller and forward models for noisy nonlinear control problems. Conditional distribution modeling in a neural network context is used to estimate uncertainty around the prediction of neural network outputs. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localize the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multivariable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis.

Development of real-time process control systems using formal techniques

A major application of computers has been to control physical processes in which the computer is embedded within some large physical process and is required to control concurrent physical processes. The main difficulty with these systems is their event-driven characteristics, which complicate their modelling and analysis. Although a number of researchers in the process system community have approached the problems of modelling and analysis of such systems, there is still a lack of standardised software development formalisms for the system (controller) development, particular at early stage of the system design cycle. This research forms part of a larger research programme which is concerned with the development of real-time process-control systems in which software is used to control concurrent physical processes. The general objective of the research in this thesis is to investigate the use of formal techniques in the analysis of such systems at their early stages of development, with a particular bias towards an application to high speed machinery. Specifically, the research aims to generate a standardised software development formalism for real-time process-control systems, particularly for software controller synthesis. In this research, a graphical modelling formalism called Sequential Function Chart (SFC), a variant of Grafcet, is examined. SFC, which is defined in the international standard IEC1131 as a graphical description language, has been used widely in industry and has achieved an acceptable level of maturity and acceptance. A comparative study between SFC and Petri nets is presented in this thesis. To overcome identified inaccuracies in the SFC, a formal definition of the firing rules for SFC is given. To provide a framework in which SFC models can be analysed formally, an extended time-related Petri net model for SFC is proposed and the transformation method is defined. The SFC notation lacks a systematic way of synthesising system models from the real world systems. Thus a standardised approach to the development of real-time process control systems is required such that the system (software) functional requirements can be identified, captured, analysed. A rule-based approach and a method called system behaviour driven method (SBDM) are proposed as a development formalism for real-time process-control systems.

An exploratory study of management accounting and control systems in a developing country

This thesis reports on the results of case studies in four commercial banks in Nigeria. The study focuses how management accounting and control systems (MCS) operate in the four banks. The study is motivated by the dearth of literature on management accounting practices in the developing world in general and in Nigeria in specific. The case study approach adopted in conducting the research was useful in exploring the dynamics of the MCS in the organisations. Data was gathered from two sources. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with managers at the head office, regional office and branches of each bank. The participants were selected from different backgrounds and managerial levels to provide broader understanding of the operations of the MCS. Second, various internal and external documents were reviewed to provide supporting evidence for the interview results. New institutional sociology (NIS) provided the theoretical framework to understand the results. NIS provided explanations for how the MCS in the four banks were shaped by diverse external and internal factors. The key factors identified as shaping the operations of the MCS were the need to comply with the regulatory environment (coercive isomorphism), the need to maintain social and cultural support (normative isomorphism) and the need to imitate successful organisations in order to appear legitimate (mimetic isomorphism). The study also examines the interplay between the institutional forces, market forces and infra-organisational power relations. This analysis is necessary to overcome the criticism of NIS that it downplays the role of market forces, agency and intra-organisational relations. The findings of the study have implications for understanding the operations of MCS in the developing world.

Strategy and control systems:a framework for analysis

This research explores the links between the strategies adopted by companies and the mechanisms used to control the organisation. This is not seen as a one way process with the control system following from the strategy but rather as an interactive process between the control systems, the environment and the business strategy. The main proposition of the research, derived from a review of the relevant literature, is that the dimensions of Business Pro-Activity and Environmental Change provide a plausible explanation of the reasons why companies need to adopt different strategies in order to be successful in different markets. A model is proposed which links these dimensions with the business strategy, organisational structure, strategic planning system and management control systems. The model is used as a framework for analysing four companies in order to further our understanding of these interactions and the mechanisms which act to both promote and resist change. Whilst it is not suggested that the model in its present form is a perfect instrument it has, during the course of this research, proved to be an appropriate framework for analysing the various mechanisms used by four companies to formulate and implement their strategies. The research reveals that these should not be viewed independently but as a balanced system.

Cost effectiveness of production control systems

This thesis deals with the problems associated with the planning and control of production, with particular reference to a small aluminium die casting company. The main problem areas were identified as: (a) A need to be able to forecast the customers demands upon the company's facilities. (b) A need to produce a manufacturing programme in which the output of the foundry (or die casting section) was balanced with the available capacity in the machine shop. (c) The need to ensure that the resultant system enabled the company's operating budget to have a reasonable chance of being achieved. At the commencement of the research work the major customers were members of the automobile industry and had their own system of forecasting, from which they issued manufacturing schedules to their component suppliers, The errors in the forecast were analysed and the distributions noted. Using these distributions the customer's forecast was capable of being modified to enable his final demand to be met with a known degree of confidence. Before a manufacturing programme could be developed the actual manufacturing system had to be reviewed and it was found that as with many small companies there was a remarkable lack of formal control and written data. Relevant data with regards to the component and the manufacturing process had therefore to be collected and analysed. The foundry process was fixed but the secondary machining operations were analysed by a technique similar to Component Flow Analysis and as a result the machines were arranged in a series of flow lines. A system of manual production control was proposed and for comparison, a local computer bureau was approached and a system proposed incorporating the production of additional management information. These systems are compared and the relative merits discussed and a proposal made for implementation.

Modelling manufacturing planning and control systems:the application of object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation

Manufacturing planning and control systems are fundamental to the successful operations of a manufacturing organisation. 10 order to improve their business performance, significant investment is made by companies into planning and control systems; however, not all companies realise the benefits sought Many companies continue to suffer from high levels of inventory, shortages, obsolete parts, poor resource utilisation and poor delivery performance. This thesis argues that the fit between the planning and control system and the manufacturing organisation is a crucial element of success. The design of appropriate control systems is, therefore, important. The different approaches to the design of manufacturing planning and control systems are investigated. It is concluded that there is no provision within these design methodologies to properly assess the impact of a proposed design on the manufacturing facility. Consequently, an understanding of how a new (or modified) planning and control system will perform in the context of the complete manufacturing system is unlikely to be gained until after the system has been implemented and is running. There are many modelling techniques available, however discrete-event simulation is unique in its ability to model the complex dynamics inherent in manufacturing systems, of which the planning and control system is an integral component. The existing application of simulation to manufacturing control system issues is limited: although operational issues are addressed, application to the more fundamental design of control systems is rarely, if at all, considered. The lack of a suitable simulation-based modelling tool does not help matters. The requirements of a simulation tool capable of modelling a host of different planning and control systems is presented. It is argued that only through the application of object-oriented principles can these extensive requirements be achieved. This thesis reports on the development of an extensible class library called WBS/Control, which is based on object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation. The functionality, both current and future, offered by WBS/Control means that different planning and control systems can be modelled: not only the more standard implementations but also hybrid systems and new designs. The flexibility implicit in the development of WBS/Control supports its application to design and operational issues. WBS/Control wholly integrates with an existing manufacturing simulator to provide a more complete modelling environment.