Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

O Espelho do Índio: A estética da afetividade no autorretrato da criança indígena na Fotopintura

Tese de Doutoramento em Estudos da Criança - Especialidade Comunicação Visual e Expressão Plástica

Epidemiology and prevention of cardiovascular disease in the Seychelles Islands (Indian Ocean)

This article presents selected findings and lessons from a cardiovascular research and prevention program initiated in 1989 in the Republic of Seychelles, a country in demographic and epidemiological transition. Rapid and sustained aging of the population (e.g., two-fold increase of people aged 30-39 from 1979 to 1995) implies, over the next few decades, further dramatic increase of the burden of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD). Epidemiological surveillance shows high age-specific rates of CVD (particularly stroke), high prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis (plaques in carotid and femoral arteries), high prevalence of classical modifiable risk factors in the adult population (particularly hypertension), and substantial proportions of children with overweight. Stagnant life expectancy in men and an increase in women have been observed over the last two decades; this occurred despite largely improved health services and reduced infant mortality rates, and may reflect the large CVD burden found in middle-aged men (less so in middle-aged women). A national program of prevention of CVD has been initiated since 1991, which includes a mix of interventions to reduce risk factors in the general population and in high-risk individuals. Substantial research to back the prevention program indeed shows, at the moment, epidemiological patterns in Seychelles similar to those observed in Western countries (e.g., an association between peripheral atherosclerosis [as a proxy of CVD] and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol, smoking, diabetes, and [inversely] walking). This clearly supports the view that promotion of healthy lifestyles and control of conventional risk factors should be the main targets for CVD prevention and control.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

Same wording, distinct concepts? Testing differences between expectancies and motives in a mediation model of alcohol outcomes.

Per definition, alcohol expectancies (after alcohol I expect X), and drinking motives (I drink to achieve X) are conceptually distinct constructs. Theorists have argued that motives mediate the association between expectancies and drinking outcomes. Yet, given the use of different instruments, do these constructs remain distinct when assessment items are matched? The present study tested to what extent motives mediated the link between expectancies and alcohol outcomes when identical items were used, first as expectancies and then as motives. A linear structural equation model was estimated based on a national representative sample of 5,779 alcohol-using students in Switzerland (mean age = 15.2 years). The results showed that expectancies explained up to 38% of the variance in motives. Together with motives, they explained up to 48% of the variance in alcohol outcomes (volume, 5+ drinking, and problems). In 10 of 12 outcomes, there was a significant mediated effect that was often higher than the direct expectancy effect. For coping, the expectancy effect was close to zero, indicating the strongest form of mediation. In only one case (conformity and 5+ drinking), there was a direct expectancy effect but no mediation. To conclude, the study demonstrates that motives are distinct from expectancies even when identical items are used. Motives are more proximally related to different alcohol outcomes, often mediating the effects of expectancies. Consequently, the effectiveness of interventions, particularly those aimed at coping drinkers, should be improved through a shift in focus from expectancies to drinking motives.

Environmental determinants of infectious and parasitic diseases

A review of the role of the environment as a determinant of infectious and parasitic diseases is presented. Historical considerations and the several environmental classifications of diseases are introduced. In a broader perspective the subject is analyzed in view of the emergence of the environmental health area, with its new paradigms. A review of epidemiological studies about environmental sanitation conditions and measures is presented, analyzing the conclusions derived from 256 studies. Finally, an epidemiological study carried out in Betim, Minas Gerais is briefly described, in order to illustrate the potentiality of this kind of study. Setting priorities of interventions regarding diarrhea control was the aim of this investigation. Conclusion about the role of this approach to optimize preventive measures for the control of infectious and parasitic diseases, of sound importance to the reality of the developing world, is stated.

Pharmacological inhibition of interleukin-15 prevents colitis and associated bone loss in IL-10 knockout mice

Bone loss secondary to inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) is largely explained by activated T cells producing cytokines that trigger osteoclastogenesis and accelerate bone resorptionwhile inhibiting bone formation. In IBD, elevated expression of interleukin (IL)-15, a T cell growth factor, plays a central role in T cell activation, pro-inflammatory cytokine production and the development of colitis. We previously reported that IL-15 enhances RANKL-induced osteoclastogenesis and that an IL-15 antagonist, CRB-15, prevents weight and bone loss in a mousemodel of dextran sulfate sodium-induced colitis.We hypothesized that inhibition of IL-15 signalingmight prevent bone loss in IL-10 deficient (IL10−/−) mice, that develop spontaneous bowel inflammation associatedwith osteopeniawhen they are no longer raised under germ-free conditions.Mice received anIL-15 antagonist (CRB-15, 5 μg/day, n=5) or IgG2a (5 μg/day, n=4) fromweek 10 to 14 of age. The severity of colitis was assessed by histology and bowel cytokine gene expression by real time PCR. Bone mass and architecturewere evaluated by ex vivo DXA on femur and micro-computed tomography on femur and vertebra. Bodyweight gainwas similar in the two groups. After 4 weeks, colonwas 29% shorter in CRB-15 treatedmice (p<0.006), a sign of reduced inflammation. Histological analysis indicated a transmural infiltration of inflammatory cells, lymphoepithelial lesions and increased size of villi (histological score=4/6) in IgG2a treated mice, whereas colon from CRB-15 treated mice exhibited mild infiltration of inflammatory cells of the lamina propria, no mucosal damages and a minimal increased size of villi (histological score=1.6/6). Levels of TNFα, IL-17 and IL-6 mRNA in the colon were significantly reduced in CRB-15 treated mice (p<0.04 vs IgG2), indicating a decrease in colon inflammation. CRB-15 improved femur BMD (+10.6% vs IgG2a, p<0.002), vertebral trabecular bone volume fraction (BV/TV, +19.7% vs IgG2a, p<0.05) and thickness (+11.6% vs IgG2a, p<0.02). A modest but not significant increase in trabecular BV/TV was observed at the distal femur. Cortical thicknesswas also higher at themidshaft femur in CRB-15 treatedmice (+8.3% vs IgG2a, p<0.02). In conclusion, we confirm and extend our results about the effects of CRB-15 in colitis. Antagonizing IL-15 may exert favorable effects on intestinal inflammation and prevent bone loss and microarchitecture alterations induced by colitis. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled ECTS 2011. Disclosure of interest: B. Brounais-Le Royer Grant / Research Support from Novartis Consumer Health Foundation, S. Ferrari-Lacraz: none declared, D. Velin: none declared, X. Zheng: none declared, S. Ferrari: none declared, D. Pierroz: none declared.

Attitudes of the public towards policies to address obesity

Key points Obesity and the related health burden is a growing problem in Ireland. Understanding public attitudes to policy interventions is important, as it provides a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of interventions and the readiness of the general public for policy implementation. The present research aimed to determine public acceptance of a range of policies to address obesity in Ireland. To this end, a survey of attitudes towards obesity-oriented policies among a nationally representative sample of the population of Irish adults was conducted. Strikingly high levels of public support were evident for a wide range of obesity-oriented interventions. The findings support prior research on behaviour change in key policy areas such as diet and smoking which demonstrates that support for interventions tends to decrease as the intrusiveness of interventions increases. Consistent with previous research, socio-demographic factors only explain a small portion (2 - 6%) of the variance in policy support. Overall, the findings indicate substantial public readiness for addressing obesity in Ireland, particularly through child-focused policies, informational measures, subsidies for healthy foods and co-operation between government and the food industry. - See more at: http://www.safefood.eu/Publications/Research-reports/Attitudes-of-the-public-towards-policies-to-addres

Interventions on obesity

This briefing paper provides a summary of the effectiveness of interventions to prevent obesity among children and young people.

Indications of public health in the English regions - 7: mental health

This report is the eigth in the series, "Indications of Public Health in the English Regions" commissioned by the Chief Medical Officer and has been produced jointly by the Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) and the North East PHO. This report presents a wide range of data on the factors which can give rise to poor mental health, the mental health status of populations, provision of interventions of care for mental illness, service user experience and traditional outcomes such as suicide. In 2006, the United Kingdom rated third highest across 25 EU member states for the number of drinks consumed in one sitting. This Regional Indications report is produced alongside the new national strategy Safe. Sensible. Social: The next steps in the National Alcohol Strategy.

The philosophical foundations of classical "rDzogs chen" in Tibet : investigating the distinction between dualistic mind (sems) and primordial knowing (ye shes)

While the syncretistic Tibetan tradition known as rDzogs chen ("Great Perfection") has attracted considerable attention over the past few decades, its philosophical foundations remain largely unknown to those unacquainted with its primary sources. This thesis looks at the essentials of rDzogs chen philosophy through the lens of two principal distinctions that the tradition has considered indispensable for understanding its distinctive views and practices: dualistic mind (sems) versus primordial knowing (ye shes) and dharmakâya versus the 'ground of all' (kun gzhi) conditioned experience. Arguing that the distinctions provided classical rDzogs chen scholars with a crucial framework for (a) articulating the necessary conditions of nondual primordial knowing, the conditio sine qua non of rNying ma soteriology, and (b) schematizing the relationship between the exoteric and esoteric vehicles of Indian Buddhism within a unifying conception of the Buddhist path as the progressive disclosure of primordial knowing, the thesis shows how the rDzogs chen philosophy of mind has been integral to the tradition's complex soteriology. The thesis consists of two parts: (1) a detailed philosophical investigation of the distinctions and (2) an anthology of previously untranslated Tibetan materials on the distinctions accompanied by critical editions and introductions. The first part systematically invesigates the nature and scope of the distinctions and traces their evolution and complex relationships with Indian Buddhist Cittamâtra, Madhyamaka, Pramàriavàda, and Vajrayâna views. It concludes with an exploration of some soteriological implications of the mind/primordial knowing distinction that became central to rDzogs chen path hermeneutics in the classical period as authors of rDzogs chen path summaries used this distinction to reconcile progressivist sutric and non-progressivist tantric models of the Buddhist path. The translations and texts included in part two of the thesis consist of (a) a short treatise from Klong chen pa's Miscellaneous Writings entitled Sems dang ye shes kyi dris lan (Reply to Questions Concerning Mind and Primordial Knowing), (b) selected passages on the distinctions from this author's monumental summary of the rDzogs chen snying thig system, the Theg mchog mdzod (Treasury of the Supreme Vehicle), and (c) an excerpt on rDzogs chen distinctions taken from 'Jigs med gling pa's (1729-1798) 18th century Klong chen sNying thig path summary entitled Treasury of Qualities (Yon tan mdzod) along with a word-by- word commentary by Yon tan rgya mtsho (b. 19th c.).

Delivering Equality Of Opportunity In Schools - An Action Plan for Educational Inclusion

This action plan focuses on addressing the educational needs of children and young people from disadvantaged communities, from pre-school through second-level education (3 to18 years). Its frame of reference is based on the definition of “educational disadvantage” in the Education Act (1998) as: “...the impediments to education arising from social or economic disadvantage which prevent students from deriving appropriate benefit from education in schools.” The action plan is, therefore, one element of a continuum of interventions to address disadvantage, which include second-chance education and training and access measures for adults to support increased participation by under-represented groups in further and higher education. A further element of this continuum is the ongoing development of provision for pupils with special educational needs in light of the enactment of the Education for Persons with Special Needs Act (2004) and the establishment of the National Council for Special Education.

Delivering Equality Of Opportunity In Schools - An Action Plan for Educational Inclusion - Summary

This action plan focuses on addressing the educational needs of children and young people from disadvantaged communities, from pre-school through second-level education (3 to18 years). Its frame of reference is based on the definition of “educational disadvantage” in the Education Act (1998) as: “...the impediments to education arising from social or economic disadvantage which prevent students from deriving appropriate benefit from education in schools.” The action plan is, therefore, one element of a continuum of interventions to address disadvantage, which include second-chance education and training and access measures for adults to support increased participation by under-represented groups in further and higher education. A further element of this continuum is the ongoing development of provision for pupils with special educational needs in light of the enactment of the Education for Persons with Special Needs Act (2004) and the establishment of the National Council for Special Education.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Obesity prevention opinions of school stakeholders: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: In general, schools are an important setting to implement current recommendations for obesity prevention in children because the vast majority of children attend school. This study investigated the opinions of different school stakeholders on the feasibility and acceptability of current obesity prevention strategies that could be implemented in Swiss schools. METHODS: Research methods were comprised of a qualitative study which included school directors, physical education teachers, catering staff, school nurses and health educators, parents of young adolescents, and young adolescents interviewed (N = 40) categorized into 6 focus groups. Open-ended questions were used to determine the participants' opinion regarding current obesity prevention recommendations, and healthy eating and physical activity promotion strategies. RESULTS: All participants approved the implementation of nutritional standards for food and drinks sold in schools, but thought that increasing the attractiveness of healthy options was the best strategy to improve eating habits. Enjoying participation in physical activity classes or after-school activities was stressed. Participants suggested offering classes for all students with poor physical condition, independent of weight status. Stakeholders called for governmental support and global coordination of interventions balanced with providing schools with enough autonomy to adapt programs relevant to their individual circumstances. They recommended integrating all school stakeholders in obesity prevention initiatives, with special attention to students and local authorities. CONCLUSIONS: Participants agreed that schools are a crucial setting to implement childhood obesity prevention strategies. They called on school stakeholders to join efforts aiming to encourage healthy behaviors and to support and reinforce parents' efforts by spreading consistent and coherent health messages.