The rise and fall of open solar flux during the current grand solar maximum

We use geomagnetic activity data to study the rise and fall over the past century of the solar wind flow speed VSW, the interplanetary magnetic field strength B, and the open solar flux FS. Our estimates include allowance for the kinematic effect of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow speed. As well as solar cycle variations, all three parameters show a long-term rise during the first half of the 20th century followed by peaks around 1955 and 1986 and then a recent decline. Cosmogenic isotope data reveal that this constitutes a grand maximum of solar activity which began in 1920, using the definition that such grand maxima are when 25-year averages of the heliospheric modulation potential exceeds 600 MV. Extrapolating the linear declines seen in all three parameters since 1985, yields predictions that the grand maximum will end in the years 2013, 2014, or 2027 using VSW, FS, or B, respectively. These estimates are consistent with predictions based on the probability distribution of the durations of past grand solar maxima seen in cosmogenic isotope data. The data contradict any suggestions of a floor to the open solar flux: we show that the solar minimum open solar flux, kinematically corrected to allow for the excess flux effect, has halved over the past two solar cycles.

An extension of an over-dispersion test for count data

While over-dispersion in capture–recapture studies is well known to lead to poor estimation of population size, current diagnostic tools to detect the presence of heterogeneity have not been specifically developed for capture–recapture studies. To address this, a simple and efficient method of testing for over-dispersion in zero-truncated count data is developed and evaluated. The proposed method generalizes an over-dispersion test previously suggested for un-truncated count data and may also be used for testing residual over-dispersion in zero-inflation data. Simulations suggest that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is standard normal and that this approximation is also reasonable for small sample sizes. The method is also shown to be more efficient than an existing test for over-dispersion adapted for the capture–recapture setting. Studies with zero-truncated and zero-inflated count data are used to illustrate the test procedures.

Seasonal and interannual variability in the Mozambique Channel from moored current observations

Direct observations from an array of current meter moorings across the Mozambique Channel in the south-west Indian Ocean are presented covering a period of more than 4 years. This allows an analysis of the volume transport through the channel, including the variability on interannual and seasonal time scales. The mean volume transport over the entire observational period is 16.7 Sv poleward. Seasonal variations have a magnitude of 4.1 Sv and can be explained from the variability in the wind field over the western part of the Indian Ocean. Interannual variability has a magnitude of 8.9 Sv and is large compared to the mean. This time scale of variability could be related to variability in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), showing that it forms part of the variability in the ocean-climate system of the entire Indian Ocean. By modulating the strength of the South Equatorial Current, the weakening (strengthening) tropical gyre circulation during a period of positive (negative) IOD index leads to a weakened (strengthened) southward transport through the channel, with a time lag of about a year. The relatively strong interannual variability stresses the importance of long-term direct observations.

Iron Uptake and Homeostasis in Microorganisms

Preface. Iron is considered to be a minor element employed, in a variety of forms, by nearly all living organisms. In some cases, it is utilised in large quantities, for instance for the formation of magnetosomes within magnetotactic bacteria or during use of iron as a respiratory donor or acceptor by iron oxidising or reducing bacteria. However, in most cases the role of iron is restricted to its use as a cofactor or prosthetic group assisting the biological activity of many different types of protein. The key metabolic processes that are dependent on iron as a cofactor are numerous; they include respiration, light harvesting, nitrogen fixation, the Krebs cycle, redox stress resistance, amino acid synthesis and oxygen transport. Indeed, it is clear that Life in its current form would be impossible in the absence of iron. One of the main reasons for the reliance of Life upon this metal is the ability of iron to exist in multiple redox states, in particular the relatively stable ferrous (Fe2+) and ferric (Fe3+) forms. The availability of these stable oxidation states allows iron to engage in redox reactions over a wide range of midpoint potentials, depending on the coordination environment, making it an extremely adaptable mediator of electron exchange processes. Iron is also one of the most common elements within the Earth’s crust (5% abundance) and thus is considered to have been readily available when Life evolved on our early, anaerobic planet. However, as oxygen accumulated (the ‘Great oxidation event’) within the atmosphere some 2.4 billion years ago, and as the oceans became less acidic, the iron within primordial oceans was converted from its soluble reduced form to its weakly-soluble oxidised ferric form, which precipitated (~1.8 billion years ago) to form the ‘banded iron formations’ (BIFs) observed today in Precambrian sedimentary rocks around the world. These BIFs provide a geological record marking a transition point away from the ancient anaerobic world towards modern aerobic Earth. They also indicate a period over which the bio-availability of iron shifted from abundance to limitation, a condition that extends to the modern day. Thus, it is considered likely that the vast majority of extant organisms face the common problem of securing sufficient iron from their environment – a problem that Life on Earth has had to cope with for some 2 billion years. This struggle for iron is exemplified by the competition for this metal amongst co-habiting microorganisms who resort to stealing (pirating) each others iron supplies! The reliance of micro-organisms upon iron can be disadvantageous to them, and to our innate immune system it represents a chink in the microbial armour, offering an opportunity that can be exploited to ward off pathogenic invaders. In order to infect body tissues and cause disease, pathogens must secure all their iron from the host. To fight such infections, the host specifically withdraws available iron through the action of various iron depleting processes (e.g. the release of lactoferrin and lipocalin-2) – this represents an important strategy in our defence against disease. However, pathogens are frequently able to deploy iron acquisition systems that target host iron sources such as transferrin, lactoferrin and hemoproteins, and thus counteract the iron-withdrawal approaches of the host. Inactivation of such host-targeting iron-uptake systems often attenuates the pathogenicity of the invading microbe, illustrating the importance of ‘the battle for iron’ in the infection process. The role of iron sequestration systems in facilitating microbial infections has been a major driving force in research aimed at unravelling the complexities of microbial iron transport processes. But also, the intricacy of such systems offers a challenge that stimulates the curiosity. One such challenge is to understand how balanced levels of free iron within the cytosol are achieved in a way that avoids toxicity whilst providing sufficient levels for metabolic purposes – this is a requirement that all organisms have to meet. Although the systems involved in achieving this balance can be highly variable amongst different microorganisms, the overall strategy is common. On a coarse level, the homeostatic control of cellular iron is maintained through strict control of the uptake, storage and utilisation of available iron, and is co-ordinated by integrated iron-regulatory networks. However, much yet remains to be discovered concerning the fine details of these different iron regulatory processes. As already indicated, perhaps the most difficult task in maintaining iron homeostasis is simply the procurement of sufficient iron from external sources. The importance of this problem is demonstrated by the plethora of distinct iron transporters often found within a single bacterium, each targeting different forms (complex or redox state) of iron or a different environmental condition. Thus, microbes devote considerable cellular resource to securing iron from their surroundings, reflecting how successful acquisition of iron can be crucial in the competition for survival. The aim of this book is provide the reader with an overview of iron transport processes within a range of microorganisms and to provide an indication of how microbial iron levels are controlled. This aim is promoted through the inclusion of expert reviews on several well studied examples that illustrate the current state of play concerning our comprehension of how iron is translocated into the bacterial (or fungal) cell and how iron homeostasis is controlled within microbes. The first two chapters (1-2) consider the general properties of microbial iron-chelating compounds (known as ‘siderophores’), and the mechanisms used by bacteria to acquire haem and utilise it as an iron source. The following twelve chapters (3-14) focus on specific types of microorganism that are of key interest, covering both an array of pathogens for humans, animals and plants (e.g. species of Bordetella, Shigella, , Erwinia, Vibrio, Aeromonas, Francisella, Campylobacter and Staphylococci, and EHEC) as well as a number of prominent non-pathogens (e.g. the rhizobia, E. coli K-12, Bacteroides spp., cyanobacteria, Bacillus spp. and yeasts). The chapters relay the common themes in microbial iron uptake approaches (e.g. the use of siderophores, TonB-dependent transporters, and ABC transport systems), but also highlight many distinctions (such as use of different types iron regulator and the impact of the presence/absence of a cell wall) in the strategies employed. We hope that those both within and outside the field will find this book useful, stimulating and interesting. We intend that it will provide a source for reference that will assist relevant researchers and provide an entry point for those initiating their studies within this subject. Finally, it is important that we acknowledge and thank wholeheartedly the many contributors who have provided the 14 excellent chapters from which this book is composed. Without their considerable efforts, this book, and the understanding that it relays, would not have been possible. Simon C Andrews and Pierre Cornelis

Offering 802.11 MAC frame transport over multiband OFDM for consumer devices

A method to map all the variants of the IEEE 802.11 MAC frames into the Multiband OFDM based ECMA-368 Physical standard is proposed, without contravening the standard. The transportation of IEEE 802.11 MAC frames over ECMA-368 allows for the migration current of Wireless LAN applications towards a Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN) solution. This system benefits the Consumer Electronics Market as the high data-rate WPAN is capable of transporting broadcast-quality video while the same system can also transport existing applications available today, maintaining existing effort, products and backward-compatibility(1).

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.

Effects of a novel galactooligosaccharide on the faecal microbiota of healthy and inflammatory bowel disease cats during a randomized, double-blind, cross-over feeding study

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a common gastrointestinal disorder of cats with no known aetiological agent. Previous work has suggested that the faecal microbiota of IBD cats is significantly different from that of healthy cats, including significantly lower bifidobacteria, bacteroides and total counts in IBD cats and significantly lower levels of sulfate-reducing bacteria in healthy cats. Prebiotics, including galactooligosaccharides (GOS), have been shown to elicit a bifidogenic effect in humans and other animals. The purpose of the current study was to examine the impact of a novel GOS supplementation on the faecal microbiota of healthy and IBD cats during a randomized, double-blind, cross-over feeding study. Eight oligonucleotide probes targeting specific bacterial populations and DAPI stain (total bacteria) were used to monitor the feline faecal microbiota. Overall, inter-animal variation was high; while a trend of increased bifidobacterial levels was seen with GOS supplementation it was not statistically significant in either healthy or IBD cats. No significant differences were observed in the faecal microbiota of IBD cats and healthy cats fed the same diet. Members of the family Coriobacteriaceae (Atopobium cluster) were found to be the most abundant bacteria in the feline microbiota.

Carbon balance of UK peatlands: current state of knowledge and future research challenges

The retention of peatland carbon (C) and the ability to continue to draw down and store C from the atmosphere is not only important for the UK terrestrial carbon inventory, but also for a range of ecosystem services, the landscape value and the ecology and hydrology of ~15% of the land area of the UK. Here we review the current state of knowledge on the C balance of UK peatlands using several studies which highlight not only the importance of making good flux measurements, but also the spatial and temporal variability of different flux terms that characterise a landscape affected by a range of natural and anthropogenic processes and threats. Our data emphasise the importance of measuring (or accurately estimating) all components of the peatland C budget. We highlight the role of the aquatic pathway and suggest that fluxes are higher than previously thought. We also compare the contemporary C balance of several UK peatlands with historical rates of C accumulation measured using peat cores, thus providing a long-term context for present-day measurements and their natural year-on-year variability. Contemporary measurements from 2 sites suggest that current accumulation rates (–56 to –72 g C m–2 yr–1) are at the lower end of those seen over the last 150 yr in peat cores (–35 to –209 g C m–2 yr–1). Finally, we highlight significant current gaps in knowledge and identify where levels of uncertainty are high, as well as emphasise the research challenges that need to be addressed if we are to improve the measurement and prediction of change in the peatland C balance over future decades.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UKMeteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is underestimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

On the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport to climate change in coupled climate models

The CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) models show a consistent intensification and poleward shift of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean during the 21st century. However, the responses of the Antarctic Circumpolar Currents (ACC) show great diversity in these models, with many even showing reductions in transport. To obtain some understanding of diverse responses in the ACC transport, we investigate both external atmospheric and internal oceanic processes that control the ACC transport responses in these models. While the strengthened westerlies act to increase the tilt of isopycnal surfaces and hence the ACC transport through Ekman pumping effects, the associated changes in buoyancy forcing generally tend to reduce the surface meridional density gradient. The steepening of isopycnal surfaces induced by increased wind forcing leads to enhanced (parameterized) eddy-induced transports that act to reduce the isopycnal slopes. There is also considerable narrowing of the ACC that tends to reduce the ACC transport, caused mainly by the poleward shifts of the subtropical gyres and to a lesser extent by the equatorward expansions of the subpolar gyres in some models. If the combined effect of these retarding processes is larger than that of enhanced Ekman pumping, the ACC transport will be reduced. In addition, the effect of Ekman pumping on the ACC is reduced in weakly stratified models. These findings give insight into the reliability of IPCC-class model predictions of the Southern Ocean circulation, and into the observed decadal-scale steady ACC transport.

How is open solar magnetic flux lost over the solar cycle?

The Sun's open magnetic field, magnetic flux dragged out into the heliosphere by the solar wind, varies by approximately a factor of 2 over the solar cycle. We consider the evolution of open solar flux in terms of a source and loss term. Open solar flux creation is likely to proceed at a rate dependent on the rate of photospheric flux emergence, which can be roughly parameterized by sunspot number or coronal mass ejection rate, when available. The open solar flux loss term is more difficult to relate to an observable parameter. The supersonic nature of the solar wind means open solar flux can only be removed by near-Sun magnetic reconnection between open solar magnetic field lines, be they open or closed heliospheric field lines. In this study we reconstruct open solar flux over the last three solar cycles and demonstrate that the loss term may be related to the degree to which the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is warped, i.e., locally tilted from the solar rotation direction. This can account for both the large dip in open solar flux at the time of sunspot maximum as well as the asymmetry in open solar flux during the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle. The observed cycle-to-cycle variability is also well matched. Following Sheeley et al. (2001), we attribute modulation of open solar flux by the degree of warp of the HCS to the rate at which opposite polarity open solar flux is brought together by differential rotation.

Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.

Spin-up and adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and global pycnocline

A theory is presented for the adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and global pycnocline to a sudden and sustained change in wind forcing. The adjustment timescale is controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity across the ACC, the mean width of the ACC, the surface area of the ocean basins to the north, and deep water formation in the North Atlantic. In particular, northern sinking may have the potential to shorten the timescale and reduce its sensitivity to Southern Ocean eddies, but the relative importance of northern sinking and Southern Ocean eddies cannot be determined precisely, largely due to limitations in the parameterization of northern sinking. Although it is clear that the main processes that control the adjustment timescale are those which counteract the deepening of the global pycnocline, the theory also suggests that the timescale can be subtly modified by wind forcing over the ACC and global diapycnal mixing. Results from calculations with a reduced-gravity model compare well with the theory. The multidecadal-centennial adjustment timescale implies that long observational time series will be required to detect dynamic change in the ACC due to anthropogenic forcing. The potential role of Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy activity in determining both the equilibrium state of the ACC and the timescale over which it adjusts suggests that the response to anthropogenic forcing may be different in coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that parameterize and resolve mesoscale eddies.

Ice crystals growing from vapor in supercooled clouds between −2.5° and −22°C: testing current parameterization methods using laboratory data

The physical and empirical relationships used by microphysics schemes to control the rate at which vapor is transferred to ice crystals growing in supercooled clouds are compared with laboratory data to evaluate the realism of various model formulations. Ice crystal growth rates predicted from capacitance theory are compared with measurements from three independent laboratory studies. When the growth is diffusion- limited, the predicted growth rates are consistent with the measured values to within about 20% in 14 of the experiments analyzed, over the temperature range −2.5° to −22°C. Only two experiments showed significant disagreement with theory (growth rate overestimated by about 30%–40% at −3.7° and −10.6°C). Growth predictions using various ventilation factor parameterizations were also calculated and compared with supercooled wind tunnel data. It was found that neither of the standard parameterizations used for ventilation adequately described both needle and dendrite growth; however, by choosing habit-specific ventilation factors from previous numerical work it was possible to match the experimental data in both regimes. The relationships between crystal mass, capacitance, and fall velocity were investigated based on the laboratory data. It was found that for a given crystal size the capacitance was significantly overestimated by two of the microphysics schemes considered here, yet for a given crystal mass the growth rate was underestimated by those same schemes because of unrealistic mass/size assumptions. The fall speed for a given capacitance (controlling the residence time of a crystal in the supercooled layer relative to its effectiveness as a vapor sink, and the relative importance of ventilation effects) was found to be overpredicted by all the schemes in which fallout is permitted, implying that the modeled crystals reside for too short a time within the cloud layer and that the parameterized ventilation effect is too strong.

Patents for plants: context and current status

One of the important themes in any discussion concerning the application of genetic transformation technology in horticulture or elsewhere is the role of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). This term covers both the content of patents and the confidential expertise, usually related to methodology and referred to as “Trade Secrets”. This review will explain the concepts behind patent protection, and will discuss the wide-ranging scope of existing patents that cover novel genotypes of plants as well as all aspects of transgenic technology, from selectable markers and novel promoters to methods of gene introduction. Although few of these patents have any significant commercial value there are a small number of key patents that may restrict the “freedom to operate” of any company seeking to exploit the methods in the production of transgenic varieties. Over the last twenty years, these restrictions have forced extensive cross-licensing between ag-biotech companies and have been one of the driving forces behind the consolidation of these companies. Although such issues may have limited relevance in the horticultural sector, and are often considered to be of little interest to the academic scientist working in the public sector, they are of great importance in any debate about the role of “public-good breeding” and of the relationship between the public and private sectors.