Estimating Nonlinear DSGE Models by the Simulated Method of Moments

This paper studies the application of the simulated method of moments (SMM) for the estimation of nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Monte Carlo analysis is employed to examine the small-sample properties of SMM in specifications with different curvature. Results show that SMM is computationally efficient and delivers accurate estimates, even when the simulated series are relatively short. However, asymptotic standard errors tend to overstate the actual variability of the estimates and, consequently, statistical inference is conservative. A simple strategy to incorporate priors in a method of moments context is proposed. An empirical application to the macroeconomic effects of rare events indicates that negatively skewed productivity shocks induce agents to accumulate additional capital and can endogenously generate asymmetric business cycles.

The costs of alcohol, illegal drugs, and tobacco in Canada, 2002.

Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate costs attributable to substance use and misuse in Canada in 2002. Method: Based on information about prevalence of exposure and risk relations for more than 80 disease categories, deaths, years of life lost, and hospitalizations attributable to substance use and misuse were estimated. In addition, substance-attributable fractions for criminal justice expenditures were derived. Indirect costs were estimated using a modified human capital approach. Results: Costs of substance use and misuse totaled almost Can. $40 billion in 2002. The total cost per capita for substance use and misuse was about Can. $1,267: Can. $463 for alcohol, Can. $262 for illegal drugs, and Can. $541 for tobacco. Legal substances accounted for the vast majority of these costs (tobacco: almost 43% of total costs; alcohol: 37%). Indirect costs or productivity losses were the largest cost category (61%), followed by health care (22%) and law enforcement costs (14%). More than 40,000 people died in Canada in 2002 because of substance use and misuse: 37,209 deaths were attributable to tobacco, 4,258 were attributable to alcohol, and 1,695 were attributable to illegal drugs. A total of about 3.8 million hospital days were attributable to substance use and misuse, again mainly to tobacco. Conclusions: Substance use and misuse imposes a considerable economic toll on Canadian society and requires more preventive efforts.

A NOVEL METHOD OF DETECTING HIV/AIDS USING MICROWAVES

HIV/AIDS is one of the most destructive epidemics in ever recorded history claims an estimated 2.4 –3.3 million lives every year. Even though there is no treatment for this pandemic Elisa and Western Blot tests are the only tests currently available for detecting HIV/AIDS. This article proposes a new method of detecting HIV/AIDS based on the measurement of the dielectric properties of blood at the microwave frequencies. The measurements were made at the S-band of microwave frequency using rectangular cavity perturbation technique with the samples of blood from healthy donors as well as from HIV/AIDS patients. An appreciable change is observed in the dielectric properties of patient samples than with the normal healthy samples and these measurements were in good agreement with clinical results. This measurement is an alternative in vitro method of diagnosing HIV/AIDS using microwaves.

A semi-automatic method for segmentation and 3D modeling of glioma tumors from brain MRI

This work presents an efficient method for volume rendering of glioma tumors from segmented 2D MRI Datasets with user interactive control, by replacing manual segmentation required in the state of art methods. The most common primary brain tumors are gliomas, evolving from the cerebral supportive cells. For clinical follow-up, the evaluation of the pre- operative tumor volume is essential. Tumor portions were automatically segmented from 2D MR images using morphological filtering techniques. These seg- mented tumor slices were propagated and modeled with the software package. The 3D modeled tumor consists of gray level values of the original image with exact tumor boundary. Axial slices of FLAIR and T2 weighted images were used for extracting tumors. Volumetric assessment of tumor volume with manual segmentation of its outlines is a time-consuming proc- ess and is prone to error. These defects are overcome in this method. Authors verified the performance of our method on several sets of MRI scans. The 3D modeling was also done using segmented 2D slices with the help of a medical software package called 3D DOCTOR for verification purposes. The results were validated with the ground truth models by the Radi- ologist.

Entwicklung, in-house Validierung und Anwendung des ganzheitlichen Verfahrens Biokristallisation für die Unterscheidung von Weizen-, Möhren- und Apfelproben aus unterschiedlichem Anbau und Verarbeitungsschritten

Die Qualität ökologischer Produkte wird über den Prozess und nicht am Produkt selbst bestimmt. Die zunehmende Nachfrage nach ökologischen Produkten fordert Methoden, die den Prozess am Produkt zeigen (Authentizitätsprüfung). Eine Literaturstudie für die vorliegende Habilitationsschrift ergab, dass ganzheitliche Verfahren sich dazu besonders eignen. Zu solchen ganzheitlichen Verfahren gehört die Biokristallisation. Bei diesem Verfahren kristallisiert eine Mischung aus Probe und CuCl2 auf einer Glasplatte zu einem Bild, das sowohl visuell, als auch computergestützt ausgewertet werden kann. Es wurden zunächst alle Schritte im Labor dokumentiert und entsprechende Standardarbeitsanweisungen erstellt. Mit einem eigens entwickelten Computerprogramm werden die Bedingungen während der Probenaufbereitung und Kristallisation für jede Probe und jedes Bild erfasst. Mit einer Texturanalyse können auch die für diese Arbeiten erstellte große Menge an Bildern ausgewertet und die Ergebnisse statistisch bearbeitet werden. Damit ist es möglich das Verfahren und Methoden für Weizen- und Möhrenproben zu charakterisieren. Es wurden verschiedene Einflussgrößen untersucht. Das Verfahren ist besonders gegenüber Änderungen in der Probenvorbereitung (z.B. Vermahlung, Mischungsverhältnis) empfindlich. Es wurde sowohl die Methodenstreuung, als auch der Anteil einzelner Schritte an der Gesamtstreuung für Weizen-, Möhren- und Apfelproben ermittelt. Die Verdampfung und Kristallisation hat den größten Anteil an der Gesamtstreuung. Die Durchführung eines Laboreignungstests zeigte, dass die so dokumentierten und charakterisierten Methoden in anderen Laboratorien erfolgreich eingesetzt werden können. Das Verfahren wurde für die nominale Unterscheidung von Weizen-, Möhren- und Apfelproben aus unterschiedlichem Anbau und Verarbeitungsschritten eingesetzt. Weizen-, Möhren- und Apfelproben aus definiertem Anbau können signifikant unterschieden werden. Weizen-, Möhren- und Apfelproben vom Erzeuger (Markt) konnten im Paarvergleich (ökologisch, konventionell) teilweise signifikant getrennt werden. Das Verfahren ist auch für die Charakterisierung von verarbeiteten Proben einsetzbar. Es konnte der Einfluss von Saftherstellung, Erwärmung und Alterung signifikant gezeigt werden. Darüber hinaus lässt sich das Verfahren auf weitere Probenarten anwenden. Das Verfahren arbeitet ganzheitlich, d.h. es werden keine Einzelstoffe analytisch bestimmt, sondern als Ergebnis wird ein Bild erhalten. Die Textur- und Struktureigenschaften dieses Bildes können mit standardisierten Methoden ausgewertet werden.

Desenvolvimento de um método in vivo para melhor compreender a pele do obeso

O impacto da obesidade na fisiopatologia da pele humana parece relacionar-se com diversas dermatoses, resultado da alteração da sua fisiologia normal, incluindo alterações na função barreira e na função de “envelope”. Contudo, a informação disponível é ainda escassa devido às diversas complexidades do tema. Este trabalho pretende contribuir para a definição de uma metodologia de abordagem experimental para estudar, de forma objectiva, as alterações funcionais que caracterizam a pele obesa. O presente estudo, transversal, incluiu 28 voluntárias, do sexo feminino, saudáveis, com idade média 23±5 anos de idade, após consentimento informado. Foi realizada uma única medição de caracterização das diversas funções cutâneas obtidas por meios não invasivos em condições controladas. As variáveis consideradas relevantes foram, a hidratação (superficial e profunda) a função de barreira e o comportamento biomecânico, medidos em 4 áreas anatómicas distintas. Através do SPSS (v 20.0) realizámos uma análise estatística univariada com cálculo de medidas de tendência central e de dispersão. Recorremos aos testes de Pearson e de Spearman, para as variáveis que seguiam, ou não, uma distribuição normal, respectivamente, adoptando um grau de confiança de 95% . Os resultados permitem propor uma metodologia para o estudo da pele, aplicável ao doente obeso, incluindo a escolha das áreas anatómicas e das variáveis adequadas ao objetivo pretendido.

Fermentation of resistant starches: influence of in vitro models on colon carcinogenesis

Resistant starch type 2 (RS2) and type 3 (RS3) containing preparations were digested using a batch (a) and a dynamic in vitro model (b). Furthermore, in vivo obtained indigestible fractions from ileostomy patients were used (c). Subsequently these samples were fermented with human feces with a batch and a dynamic in vitro method. The fermentation supernatants were used to treat CAC02 cells. Cytotoxicity, anti-genotoxicity against hydrogen peroxide (comet assay) and the effect on barrier function measured by trans-epithelial electrical resistance were determine. Dynamically fermented samples led to high cytotoxic activity, probably due to additional compounds added during in vitro fermentation. As a consequence only batch fermented samples were investigated further. Batch fermentation of RS resulted in an anti-genotoxic activity ranging from 9-30% decrease in DNA damage for all the samples, except for RS2-b. It is assumed that the changes in RS2 structures due to dynamic digestion resulted in a different fermentation profile not leading to any anti-genotoxic effect. Additionally, in vitro batch fermentation of RS caused an improvement in integrity across the intestinal barrier by approximately 22% for all the samples. We have demonstrated that batch in vitro fermentation of RS2 and RS3 preparations differently pre-digested are capable of inhibiting the initiation and promotion stage in colon carcinogenesis in vitro.

A randomised, double-blind, placebo controlled cross-over study to determine the gastrointestinal effects of consumption of arabinoxylanoligosaccharides enriched bread in healthy volunteers

BACKGROUND: Prebiotics are food ingredients, usually non-digestible oligosaccharides, that are selectively fermented by populations of beneficial gut bacteria. Endoxylanases, altering the naturally present cereal arabinoxylans, are commonly used in the bread industry to improve dough and bread characteristics. Recently, an in situ method has been developed to produce arabinoxylan-oligosaccharides (AXOS) at high levels in breads through the use of a thermophilic endoxylanase. AXOS have demonstrated potentially prebiotic properties in that they have been observed to lead to beneficial shifts in the microbiota in vitro and in murine, poultry and human studies. METHODS: A double-blind, placebo controlled human intervention study was undertaken with 40 healthy adult volunteers to assess the impact of consumption of breads with in situ produced AXOS (containing 2.2 g AXOS) compared to non-endoxylanase treated breads. Volatile fatty acid concentrations in faeces were assessed and fluorescence in situ hybridisation was used to assess changes in gut microbial groups. Secretory immunoglobulin A (sIgA) levels in saliva were also measured. RESULTS: Consumption of AXOS-enriched breads led to increased faecal butyrate and a trend for reduced iso-valerate and fatty acids associated with protein fermentation. Faecal levels of bifidobacteria increased following initial control breads and remained elevated throughout the study. Lactobacilli levels were elevated following both placebo and AXOS-breads. No changes in salivary secretory IgA levels were observed during the study. Furthermore, no adverse effects on gastrointestinal symptoms were reported during AXOS-bread intake. CONCLUSIONS: AXOS-breads led to a potentially beneficial shift in fermentation end products and are well tolerated.

Effects of absorbing aerosols in cloudy skies: a satellite study over the Atlantic Ocean

We present a method for deriving the radiative effects of absorbing aerosols in cloudy scenes from satellite retrievals only. We use data of 2005–2007 from various passive sensors aboard satellites of the “A-Train” constellation. The study area is restricted to the tropical- and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. To identify the dependence of the local planetary albedo in cloudy scenes on cloud liquid water path and aerosol optical depth (AOD), we perform a multiple linear regression. The OMI UV-Aerosolindex serves as an indicator for absorbing-aerosol presence. In our method, the aerosol influences the local planetary albedo through direct- (scattering and absorption) and indirect (Twomey) aerosol effects. We find an increase of the local planetary albedo (LPA) with increasing AOD of mostly scattering aerosol and a decrease of the LPA with increasing AOD of mostly absorbing aerosol. These results allow us to derive the direct aerosol effect of absorbing aerosols in cloudy scenes, with the effect of cloudy-scene aerosol absorption in the tropical- and subtropical Atlantic contributing (+21.2±11.1)×10−3 Wm−2 to the global top of the atmosphere radiative forcing.

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.

The Determination of Total Hydrogen, Carbon, Nitrogen and Sulfur in Silicates, Silicate Rocks, Soils and Sediments

Determinations of the volatile elements carbon, hydrogen, sulfur and nitrogen in many geological RM, performed with the LECO CHN and SC analysers, are presented. The method allowed the determination of S in concentrations from a few % m/m to 0.001% m/m or less, of C from % m/m to 0.01% m/m and of H from % m/m to 0.004% m/m. Accuracy was usually better than the XRF method (for S). All obtained values passed the Sutarno-Steger test, which establishes that vertical bar(mean(analysed) - mean(certified))vertical bar/ S(certified) < 2, for the cases with an appropriate number of determinations (n > 10 for each element). It was possible to perform routine determination of C, H and S with the instrumentation, coupled with the determination of major and minor elements in geological materials. Determination of nitrogen could also be performed on an exploratory basis, with improvements in the method dependent on the future availability of more reference materials with reliable composition of this element.

Lu-Hf and U-Pb age determination of Capivarita Anorthosite in the Dom Feliciano Belt, Brazil

The Capivarita Anorthosite, formed in an intraplate environment and later metamorphosed under amphibolites fades conditions, is exposed in the Dom Feliciano Belt as part of the Brasiliano magmatic arc and occurs as a roof-pedant in, or is even intruded by, 0.6 Ga post-collisional granites. In this work, magmatic and metamorphic minerals were dated using the LA-MC-ICP-MS in situ method. U-Pb magmatic and metamorphic zircon dating yielded an age of 1573 +/- 21 Ma and of 606 +/- 6 Ma, respectively, whereas the igneous titanite dating yielded an age of 1530 +/- 33 Ma and the metamorphic ages were 651 +/- 9 Ma and 601 +/- 5 Ma. The Lu-Hf model ages showed two clusters from 1.81 to 2.03 Ga (calf from +2.21 to +6.42) and 2.55-2.62 Ga (epsilon epsilon Hf from -4.59 to -5.64). This intraplate magmatism can be connected to a very important episode of continental accretion in an extensional setting from the fragmentation of the supercontinent during the Early Mesoproterozoic. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diphtheria toxoid conformation in the context of its nanoencapsulation within liposomal particles sandwiched by chitosan

Chitosan (alpha alpha-(1-4)-amino-2-deoxy-beta beta-D-glucan) is a deacetylated form of chitin, a polysaccharide from crustacean shells. Its unique characteristics, such as positive charge, biodegradability, biocompatibility, nontoxicity, and rigid structure, make this macromolecule ideal for an oral vaccine delivery system. We prepared reverse-phase evaporation vesicles (REVs) sandwiched by chitosan (Chi) and polyvinylic alcohol (PVA). However, in this method, there are still some problems to be circumvented related to protein stabilization. During the inverted micelle phase of protein nanoencapsulation, hydrophobic interfaces are expanded, leading to interfacial adsorption, followed by protein unfolding and aggregation. Here, spectroscopic and immunological techniques were used to ascertain the effects of the Hoffmeister series ions on diphtheria toxoid (Dtxd) stability during the inverted micelle phase. A correlation was established between the salts used in aqueous solutions and the changes in Dtxd solubility and conformation. Dtxd alpha alpha-helical content was quite stable, which led us to conclude that encapsulation occurred without protein aggregation or without exposition of hydrophobic residues. Dtxd aggregation was 98% avoided by the kosmotropic, PO

In vitro evaluation of Cu and Fe bioavailability in cashew nuts by off-line coupled SEC-UV and SIMAAS

In this work Cu and Fe bioavailability in cashew nuts was evaluated using in vitro method. Extractions with simulated gastric and intestinal fluids and dialysis procedures were applied for this purpose. The proteins separation and quantification were performed by size exclusion chromatography (SEC) coupled on-line to ultra-violet (UV) and off-line to simultaneous multielement atomic absorption spectrometry (SIMAAS). The SEC-UV and SIMAAS profiles of the protein fractions obtained by alkaline extraction (NaOH) and precipitation with HCl indicated the presence of high and low molecular weight species in the range between >75 kDa and 9.3 kDa. Almost 83% of Cu and 78% of Fe were extracted during cashew nut digestion and 90% of both elements were dialyzed. With these results it is possible to assume that 75% of Cu and 70% of Fe present in cashew nut could be bioavailable. The SEC-UV and SIMAAS chromatographic profiles obtained after in vitro gastrointestinal digestion reveal that Cu and Fe not dialyzed can be associated to a compound of 9.2 kDa. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The reduction of Cu(II)/neocuproine complexes by some polyphenols: Total polyphenols determination in wine samples

A new method is presented for spectrophotometric determination of total polyphenols content in wine. The procedure is a modified CUPRAC method based on the reduction of Cu(II), in hydroethanolic medium (pH 7.0) in the presence of neocuproine (2,9-dimethyl-1,10-phenanthroline), by polyphenols, yielding a Cu(I) complexes with maximum absorption peak at 450 nm. The absorbance values are linear (r = 0.998, n = 6) with tannic acid concentrations from 0.4 to 3.6 mu mol L(-1). The limit of detection obtained was 0.41 mu mol L(-1) and relative standard deviation 1.2% (1 mu mol L(-1); n = 8). Recoveries between 80% and 110% (mean value of 95%) were calculated for total polyphenols determination in 14 commercials and 2 synthetic wine samples (with and without sulphite). The proposed procedure is about 1.5 more sensitive than the official Folin-Ciocalteu method. The sensitivities of both methods were compared by the analytical responses of several polyphenols tested in each method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.