Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Complete agent based simulation of mini-grids

EuroPES 2009

Evaluating the role of energy efficiency labels: the case of Dish Washers

4 p.

Evaluating the Role of Energy Efficiency Labels: the Case of Dish Washers

27 p.

Compliance verification methodology for renewable generation integration. Application to island power grids

261 p.

Optimisation of fuel usage and steam availability in the power and steam plant of a paper mill

This paper presents the results of a project aimed at minimising fuel usage while maximising steam availability in the power and steam plant of a large newsprint mill. The approach taken was to utilise the better regulation and plant wide optimisation capabilities of Advanced Process Control, especially Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques. These have recently made their appearance in the pulp and paper industry but are better known in the oil and petrochemical industry where they have been used for nearly 30 years. The issue in the power and steam plant is to ensure that sufficient steam is available when the paper machines require it and yet not to have to waste too much steam when one or more of the machines suffers an outage. This is a problem for which MPC is well suited. It allows variables to be kept within declared constraint ranges, a feature which has been used, effectively, to increase the steam storage capacity of the existing plant. This has resulted in less steam being condensed when it is not required and in significant reductions in the need for supplementary firing. The incidence of steam being dump-condensed while also supplementary firing the Combined Heat & Power (CHP) plant has been reduced by 95% and the overall use of supplementary firing is less than 30% of what it was. In addition the plant runs more smoothly and requires less operator time. The yearly benefit provided by the control system is greater than £200,000, measured in terms of 2005 gas prices.

Electrotactile touch surface by using transparent graphene

In this work we present a flexible Electrostatic Tactile (ET) surface/display realized by using new emerging material graphene. The graphene is transparent conductor which successfully replaces previous solution based on indium-thin oxide (ITO) and delivers more reliable solution for flexible and bendable displays. The electrostatic tactile surface is capable of delivering programmable, location specific tactile textures. The ET device has an area of 25 cm 2, and consists of 130 μm thin optically transparent (>76%) and mechanically flexible structure overlaid unobtrusively on top of a display. The ET system exploits electro vibration phenomena to enable on-demand control of the frictional force between the user's fingertip and the device surface. The ET device is integrated through a controller on a mobile display platform to generate fully programmable range of stimulating signals. The ET haptic feedback is formed in accordance with the visual information displayed underneath, with the magnitude and pattern of the frictional force correlated with both the images and the coordinates of the actual touch in real time forming virtual textures on the display surface (haptic virtual silhouette). To quantify rate of change in friction force we performed a dynamic friction coefficient measurement with a system involving an artificial finger mimicking the actual touch. During operation, the dynamic friction between the ET surface and an artificial finger stimulation increases by 26% when the load is 0.8 N and by 24% when the load is 1 N. © 2012 ACM.

Estimation of the natural purification rate of a eutrophic lake after pollutant removal

Pollution resulting from increased human activities is threatening Lake Donghu, its effects being characterized by serious eutrophication. A steady increase of phosphorus loading is the most important factor of the lake eutrophication. Pollution external control projects are being implemented and will be accomplished before the year 2010. In order to predict the restoration rate by the lake's self-purification after the projects of external control, a model of predicting the removal rate of total phosphorus (TP) from lake water is developed, and a brief method of estimating the release and export rate of sediment phosphorus is suggested. Results show that, on the premise of external loading fully controlled. The restoration needs about 55 years or more. Obviously, the great P pool in the sediment will be a limiting factor of preventing the improvement of water quality after the external loading is under control. Based on the estimation we conclude that after the external control projects before 2010, in order to restore the lake in a few years, although highly cost, the first step must be the sediment dredging to remove internal loading. The second step is diverting water of River Changjiang into the lake to accelerate the improvement of lake water. Otherwise, removal of pollutant sources will become meaningless. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

一种通用访问控制管理模型

目前的访问控制管理模型都是针对某种特定的访问控制模型提出的，不能适应多访问控制模型共存于一个大型系统的情况，一个管理模型不能同时适用于多访问控制模型的主要原因是管理者管理范围定义包含了某种访问控制模型中特有的组件．通过使用各种访问控制模型中共有的主体和权限来定义管理模型中的管理范围，将管理模型与访问控制模型之间的关系抽象为一个用于计算策略相关管理范围的函数，提出了一种能够用来管理不同访问控制模型的通用访问控制管理模型，为了便于模型实际使用，在模型中引入管理空间的概念与实际组织结构相对应，形成分布式访问控制管理结构，同时模型严格区分了管理空间的直接管理者和间接管理者在管理权限上的不同，使得管理者具有一定的自治性．最后讨论了管理模型中的管理规则和语义，证明了模型的完备性，并讨论和分析了针对不同访问控制模型的policy~*算法．

基于Biba和Clark-Wilson策略的混合强制完整性模型

商业应用需要实施完整性策略保护.Biba模型提供了一种简洁的多级完整性控制方案,但是需要引入可信主体来保证实施的可用性.而Clark-Wilson模型通过可监控的状态转换提供了一种完备的完整性保护,但其复杂性影响了该模型的完整实现.提出的模型以Biba严格完整性策略为基础,同时根据可信主体在其生命周期所属的状态实施Biba低水标策略.对可信主体在其生命周期发生的状态转换及相应的低水标参数调整,采用Clark-Wilson模型来进行监控.在有效解决了Biba策略的可用性问题和Clark-Wilson模型监控量过大给系统带来的配置和运行负担问题的同时,继承它们的优点.证明了该策略融合方案是可行的、安全的.

模型无关的无定标视觉伺服控制

本文首先介绍了视觉伺服的一般原理 .然后提出了一种模型无关的无定标视觉伺服控制方法 ,在这种方法中不需要机器人模型和摄像机模型 ,应用方差最小化的原理推导出了模型无关的无定标视觉伺服控制律 .此外还给出了图像雅可比矩阵的递推公式 .文章最后通过一个轨线跟踪的仿真实验验证了算法的正确性和有效性

一种新型柔索驱动并联机器人的模型样机

提出一种新型并联机器人机构 ,利用张紧柔索驱动该并联机器人·通过运动学和动力学分析、工作空间分析、轨迹规划、误差分析 ,设计并制作了模型样机本体、驱动与控制模块 ,开发了机器人语言 ,控制模型样机完成指定动作·实验结果表明 ,这种新型并联机器人是可行的 ,适用于轻型机床等设备·该机器人在某一速度范围内工作时 ,会产生较明显的振动 ,并伴有噪声 ,因此要提高机器人的性能还必须设法抑制其振动

7000米载人潜水器推进器故障容错控制分配研究

介绍了7000米载人潜水器推进系统的组成和推进器布置,描述了潜水器控制分配问题,对推进器推力和期望控制量进行了归一化处理.根据载人潜水器的推进器布置,建立了系统的控制分配模型,设计了推进器故障容错处理策略,研究了基于推力最小二范数的载人潜水器控制分配求解方法.采用基于伪逆矩阵与定点分配的混合控制分配求解算法,在半物理仿真平台上实验验证了控制分配求解算法的正确性和有效性.

一种具有波浪补偿和防晃功能的船用起重机

船用特种起重机是指在海浪环境中进行起吊作业的专用起重机器人，其需要解决的主要问题是波浪运动的补偿和摆动的抑制。本文针对此采用并串联结构机器人的理论和技术，提出了能实现海浪补偿与防晃一体化的起重机方案，对方案的机构原理、测量方法、控制方法和非对称液压缸的建模等都进行了具体的分析与论证。最后得出结论：现有技术水平能够实现海浪补偿与防晃一体化，研制特种起重机是可行的。本项研究的科学意义在于探索在海浪环境

Stochastic E2F activation and reconciliation of phenomenological cell-cycle models.

The transition of the mammalian cell from quiescence to proliferation is a highly variable process. Over the last four decades, two lines of apparently contradictory, phenomenological models have been proposed to account for such temporal variability. These include various forms of the transition probability (TP) model and the growth control (GC) model, which lack mechanistic details. The GC model was further proposed as an alternative explanation for the concept of the restriction point, which we recently demonstrated as being controlled by a bistable Rb-E2F switch. Here, through a combination of modeling and experiments, we show that these different lines of models in essence reflect different aspects of stochastic dynamics in cell cycle entry. In particular, we show that the variable activation of E2F can be described by stochastic activation of the bistable Rb-E2F switch, which in turn may account for the temporal variability in cell cycle entry. Moreover, we show that temporal dynamics of E2F activation can be recast into the frameworks of both the TP model and the GC model via parameter mapping. This mapping suggests that the two lines of phenomenological models can be reconciled through the stochastic dynamics of the Rb-E2F switch. It also suggests a potential utility of the TP or GC models in defining concise, quantitative phenotypes of cell physiology. This may have implications in classifying cell types or states.