Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Regime Switching and Temporal Conditional Default Correlation in Credit Default Swap Valuation: The Market liquidity effect

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

The Optimal Response to Default: Renegotiation or Extended Maturity?

This paper reinforces the argument of Harding and Sirmans (2002) that the observed preference of lenders for extended maturity rather than renegotiation of the principle in the case of loan default is due to the superior incentive properties of the former. Specifically, borrowers have a greater incentive to avoid default under extended maturity because it reduces the likelihood that they will be able to escape paying off the full loan balance. Thus, although extended maturity leaves open the possibility of foreclosure, it will be preferred to renegotiation as long as the dead weight loss from foreclosure is not too large.

US Corporate Default Swap Valuation: The Market Liquidity Hypothesis and Autonomous Credit Risk

This paper develops a reduced form three-factor model which includes a liquidity proxy of market conditions which is then used to provide implicit prices. The model prices are then compared with observed market prices of credit default swaps to determine if swap rates adequately reflect market risks. The findings of the analysis illustrate the importance of liquidity in the valuation process. Moreover, market liquidity, a measure of investors. willingness to commit resources in the credit default swap (CDS) market, was also found to improve the valuation of investors. autonomous credit risk. Thus a failure to include a liquidity proxy could underestimate the implied autonomous credit risk. Autonomous credit risk is defined as the fractional credit risk which does not vary with changes in market risk and liquidity conditions.

A Simple Theory of Increasing Penalties for Repeat Offenders

A feature of many penal codes is that punishments are more severe for repeat offenders, yet economic models have had a hard time providing a theoretical justification for this practice. This paper offers an explanation based on the wage penalty suffered by individuals convicted of crime. While this penalty probably deters some first-timers from committing crimes, it actually hampers deterrence of repeat offenders because of their diminished employments opportunities. We show that in this setting, an escalating penalty scheme is optimal and time consistent.

Is Group Lending A Good Enforcement Scheme for Achieving High Repayment Rates?: Evidence from Field Experiments in Vietnam

Microfinance institutions employ various kinds of incentive schemes but estimating the effect of each scheme is not easy due to endogeneity bias. We conducted field experiments in Vietnam to capture the role of joint liability, monitoring, cross-reporting, social sanctions, communication and group formation in borrowers’ repayment behavior. We find that joint liability contracts cause serious free-riding problems, inducing strategic default and lowering repayment rates. When group members observe each others’ investment returns, participants are more likely to choose strategic default. Even after introducing a cross-reporting system and/or penalties among borrowers, the default rates and the ratios of participants who chose strategic default under joint liability are still higher than those under individual lending. We also find that joint liability lending often failed to induce mutual insurance among borrowers. Those who had been helped or who had repaid a little in the previous round were more likely to default strategically and repay a little again in the current round and those who paid large amounts were always the same individuals.

Competition of the mechanisms : how Chinese home appliance firms coped with default risk of trade credit?

During the transition period from a planned economy to a market economy in 1990s of China, there was a considerable accrual of deferred payment, and default due to inferior enforcement institutions. This is a very common phenomenon in the transition economies at that time. Interviews with home electronics appliance firms revealed that firms coped with this problem by adjusting their sales mechanisms (found four types), and the benefit of institutions was limited. A theoretical analysis claim that spot and integration are inferior to contracts, a contract with a rebate on volume and prepayment against an exclusive agent can realize the lowest cost and price. The empirical part showed that mechanisms converged into a mechanism with the rebate on volume an against exclusive agent and its price level is the lowest. The competition is the driving force of the convergence of mechanisms and improvement risk management capacity.

Aircraft flight trajectory deviation in the standard instrument departures. Operators penalties.

In the recent years many problems are emerging due to the aircraft noise on the airport surrounding areas. The solution to this problem is not easy considering that the neighbourhood asks for the reduction of the number of aircraft operations and the airlines ask for a growing demand in the number of operations in the major airports. So the airport and regulatory authorities try to get a solution imposing a fine to the aircraft which its actual trajectory differs from the nominal one more than a lateral deviation. But, which is the value of this deviation?. The current situation is that many operators have to pay a lot of money for exceeding a deviation which has been established without operational criteria. This paper presents the results of a research program which is being carried out by the authors which aims to determine the "delta" deviation to be used for this purpose. In addition it is proposed a customized method per SID and per airport to be used for determining the maximum allowed lateral deviation by which if the aircraft is within it, then none fine will be imposed.

The default mode network is functionally and structurally disrupted in amnestic mild cognitive impairment — a bimodal MEG–DTI study

Over the past years, several studies on Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) have reported Default Mode Network (DMN) deficits. This network is attracting increasing interest in the AD community, as it seems to play an important role in cognitive functioning and in beta amyloid deposition. Attention has been particularly drawn to how different DMN regions are connected using functional or structural connectivity. To this end, most studies have used functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), Positron Emission Tomography (PET) or Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI). In this study we evaluated (1) functional connectivity from resting state magnetoencephalography (MEG) and (2) structural connectivity from DTI in 26 MCI patients and 31 age-matched controls. Compared to controls, the DMN in the MCI group was functionally disrupted in the alpha band, while no differences were found for delta, theta, beta and gamma frequency bands. In addition, structural disconnection could be assessed through a decreased fractional anisotropy along tracts connecting different DMN regions. This suggests that the DMN functional and anatomical disconnection could represent a core feature of MCI.

Segregation of Heterotrimeric G Proteins in Cell Surface Microdomains: Gq Binds Caveolin to Concentrate in Caveolae, whereas Gi and Gs Target Lipid Rafts by Default

Select lipid-anchored proteins such as glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored proteins and nonreceptor tyrosine kinases may preferentially partition into sphingomyelin-rich and cholesterol-rich plasmalemmal microdomains, thereby acquiring resistance to detergent extraction. Two such domains, caveolae and lipid rafts, are morphologically and biochemically distinct, contain many signaling molecules, and may function in compartmentalizing cell surface signaling. Subfractionation and confocal immunofluorescence microscopy reveal that, in lung tissue and in cultured endothelial and epithelial cells, heterotrimeric G proteins (Gi, Gq, Gs, and Gβγ) target discrete cell surface microdomains. Gq specifically concentrates in caveolae, whereas Gi and Gs concentrate much more in lipid rafts marked by GPI-anchored proteins (5′ nucleotidase and folate receptor). Gq, apparently without Gβγ subunits, stably associates with plasmalemmal and cytosolic caveolin. Gi and Gs interact with Gβγ subunits but not caveolin. Gi and Gs, unlike Gq, readily move out of caveolae. Thus, caveolin may function as a scaffold to trap, concentrate, and stabilize Gq preferentially within caveolae over lipid rafts. In N2a cells lacking caveolae and caveolin, Gq, Gi, and Gs all concentrate in lipid rafts as a complex with Gβγ. Without effective physiological interaction with caveolin, G proteins tend by default to segregate in lipid rafts. The ramifications of the segregated microdomain distribution and the Gq-caveolin complex without Gβγ for trafficking, signaling, and mechanotransduction are discussed.

Medial prefrontal cortex and self-referential mental activity: Relation to a default mode of brain function

Medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) is among those brain regions having the highest baseline metabolic activity at rest and one that exhibits decreases from this baseline across a wide variety of goal-directed behaviors in functional imaging studies. This high metabolic rate and this behavior suggest the existence of an organized mode of default brain function, elements of which may be either attenuated or enhanced. Extant data suggest that these MPFC regions may contribute to the neural instantiation of aspects of the multifaceted “self.” We explore this important concept by targeting and manipulating elements of MPFC default state activity. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, subjects made two judgments, one self-referential, the other not, in response to affectively normed pictures: pleasant vs. unpleasant (an internally cued condition, ICC) and indoors vs. outdoors (an externally cued condition, ECC). The ICC was preferentially associated with activity increases along the dorsal MPFC. These increases were accompanied by decreases in both active task conditions in ventral MPFC. These results support the view that dorsal and ventral MPFC are differentially influenced by attentiondemanding tasks and explicitly self-referential tasks. The presence of self-referential mental activity appears to be associated with increases from the baseline in dorsal MPFC. Reductions in ventral MPFC occurred consistent with the fact that attention-demanding tasks attenuate emotional processing. We posit that both self-referential mental activity and emotional processing represent elements of the default state as represented by activity in MPFC. We suggest that a useful way to explore the neurobiology of the self is to explore the nature of default state activity.

Default taxonomy: Ernst Mayr’s view of the microbial world

This perspective is a response to a taxonomic proposal by E. Mayr [“Two empires or three?” (1998) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 95, 9720–9723]. Mayr has suggested that the now accepted classification of life into three primary domains, Archaea, Bacteria, and Eucarya—originally proposed by myself and others—be abandoned in favor of the earlier Prokaryote–Eukaryote classification. Although the matter appears a taxonomic quibble, it is not that simple. At issue here are differing views as to the nature of biological classification, which are underlain by differing views as to what biology is and will be—matters of concern to all biologists.