A crise financeira e a política monetária no Brasil

A crise financeira iniciada em 2007 gerou uma grande recessão nos Estados Unidos e abalou a economia global com consequências nefastas para o crescimento e a taxa de desemprego em vários países. Os principais Bancos Centrais do mundo passaram a dar maior importância para políticas que garantam a estabilidade financeira. É consensual a necessidade de avanços regulatórios e de medidas prudenciais capazes de reduzir os riscos financeiros, mas existem divergências quanto ao uso da taxa básica de juros, não só como um instrumento necessário para garantir a estabilidade de preços, como também para garantir a estabilidade financeira e evitar a formação de bolhas. O Brasil viveu nos últimos vinte anos um período de grande expansão do mercado de crédito, fruto das estabilidades econômica e financeira. O Banco Central do Brasil teve atuação exitosa durante a crise e demonstrou habilidade em utilizar instrumentos de política monetária e medidas macroprudenciais de forma complementar. Nos últimos quatro anos, as condições macroeconômicas se deterioraram e o Brasil atravessou um período de crescimento baixo, inflação próxima ao teto da meta e aumento do endividamento. Enquanto as políticas macroprudenciais foram capazes de evitar a formação de bolhas, as políticas fiscal e monetária foram demasiadamente expansionistas. Neste período houve um enfraquecimento na função-reação do Banco Central, que deixou de respeitar o princípio de Taylor.

Debt maturity determinants in Brazil: evidence from private and public corporate borrowings

This study provides an empirical investigation of the determinants of long-term debt maturity in Brazil. We built a unique database that includes privately placed debt and public debt for 308 publicly traded, non-financial Brazilian companies, from 2009 to 2013. We perform GMM panel analyses using as dependent variables the amount of long-term debt payable in more than one, three, and five years for total debt, BNDES (Brazilian Development Bank) debt and corporate bonds. The results show that the BNDES finances less risky firms, i.e., those that are larger, older, more tangible and more transparent. We also find support for information asymmetry theories, as companies with higher transparency levels have similar leverage levels relative to others but higher proportions of long-term debt in their capital structures. Regarding debt levels, we find that more levered companies are larger, less profitable, more tangible and have fewer growth opportunities. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to address the determinants of long-term debt maturity in Brazil that uses various specifications of long-term debt and that examines different types of debt.

Implied Hazard Rates Analysis Through Brazilian Corporate Debt

No Brasil, o mercado de crédito corporativo ainda é sub-aproveitado. A maioria dos participantes não exploram e não operam no mercado secundário, especialmente no caso de debêntures. Apesar disso, há inúmeras ferramentas que poderiam ajudar os participantes do mercado a analisar o risco de crédito e encorajá-los a operar esses riscos no mercado secundário. Essa dissertação introduz um modelo livre de arbitragem que extrai a Perda Esperada Neutra ao Risco Implícita nos preços de mercado. É uma forma reduzida do modelo proposto por Duffie and Singleton (1999) e modela a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros através de uma Função Constante por Partes. Através do modelo, foi possível analisar a Curva de Perda Esperada Neutra ao Risco Implícita através dos diferentes instrumentos de emissores corporativos brasileiros, utilizando Títulos de Dívida, Swaps de Crédito e Debêntures. Foi possível comparar as diferentes curvas e decidir, em cada caso analisado, qual a melhor alternativa para se tomar o risco de crédito da empresa, via Títulos de Dívida, Debêntures ou Swaps de Crédito.

Deregulation and The 2007-2008 Housing/Debt Crisis Analysis of the Housing/Debt Crisis of 2007-2008 and its impact on the Financial Strength and Vulnerability of the United States and Global Economy

One looming question has persisted in the minds of economists the world over in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 American Housing and Debt Crisis: How did it begin and who is responsible for making this happen? Another two-part question is: What measures were implemented to help end the crisis and what changes are being implemented to ensure that it will never happen again? Many speculate that the major contributing factor was the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 that prompted a virtual feeding frenzy among the banking community when new calls from Capitol Hill encouraged home ownership in America as well as the secondary mortgage market which skyrocketed thereafter. The Glass-Steagall Act will be among many of the topics explored in this paper along with the events leading up to the 2007-2008 housing/debt crisis as well as the aftermath.

The Limits of political compromise: debt ceilings and political competition

We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political competition in an economy where political parties alternate in office. Due to rent-seeking motives, incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level. Parties cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each party curbs excessive spending when in office if it expects future governments to do the same. In contrast to the received literature, we find that strict limits on government borrowing can exacerbate political-economy distortions by rendering a political compromise unsustainable. This tends to happen when political competition is limited. Conversely, a tight limit on the public debt fosters a compromise that yields the efficient outcome when political competition is vigorous, saving the economy from immiseration. Our analysis thus suggests a legislative tradeoff between restricting political competition and constraining the ability of governments to issue debt.

Credit ratings and government bonds evidence before, during and after the european debt crisis

Neste projeto, investigamos se as agências de rating e as taxas de juro de longo prazo da dívida soberana tiveram uma influência recíproca antes, durante e após a crise da dívida soberana Europeia. Esta análise é realizada, estimando a relação existente entre os ratings da dívida soberana ou taxas de juro e factores macroeconomicos e estruturais, através de uma diferente aplicação de metodologias utilizadas para este efeito. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que, no período da crise soberana, os ratings e as taxas de juros tiveram um mútuo impacto, sugerindo que as descidas dos ratings podem ter conduzido a profecias auto-realizáveis, levando países relativamente estáveis a um eventual incumprimento

Delays in stabilization or in reforms? The debt crisis

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s' debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long-run approach. Revising this long-run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade-policy reforms, with a model in which terms-of-trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.

Evaluation of recycled tiles and OSB ceiling materials in closed broiler house prototypes

This study aimed at evaluating the thermal performance of a modular ceiling system for poultry houses. The reduced- and distorted-scale prototypes used ceiling modules made of reforested wood and were covered with recycled long-life package tiles. The following parameters were measured for 21 days: tile internal surface temperature (ST), globe temperature and humidity index (WBGT), and radiant heat load (RHL). Measurements were made at times of highest heat load (11:00 am, 13:00 pm, and 03:00 pm). Collected data were analyzed by R statistics software. Means were compared by multiple comparison test (Tukey) and linear regression was performed, both at 5% significance level. The results showed that the prototype with the ceiling was more efficient to reduce internal tile surface temperature; however, this was not sufficient to provide a comfortable environment for broilers during the growout. Therefore, other techniques to provide proper cooling are required in addition to the ceiling.

The debt crisis: a re-appraisal

The 1980s' debt crisis is a landmark in developing economies' growth and stabilization. According to the most quoted empirical articles, external shocks and vicissitudes gave rise to crisis just because of delays in stabilization policies, engendered by internal conflicts and institutional immaturity. I review some of these papers, and find out some problems - in the measurement of shocks and foreign indebtedness, namely - whose corrections lead to opposite results: external shocks and foreign indebtedness explain that crisis regardless of domestic policies. At the same time, the strong correlation of income distribution to terms of trade changes and foreign indebtedness suggest that inequality may have contributed differently to that crisis: either through an economic channel, or through a political channel based on delays in reforms.

World inflation and foreign debt: the case of the improper deflator

Includes bibliography

The real cost of the external debt for the creditor and for the debtor

Includes bibliography

Debt financing rollercoaster: Latin American and Caribbean access to international bond markets since the debt crisis, 1982-2012

Includes bibliography

Ajuste del balance de pagos, política crediticia y control del endeudamiento externo = Balance-of-payments adjustment, credit policy and control of the external debt

Incluye Bibliografía

Debt for nature: a swap whose time has gone?

Includes bibliography

Finding solutions to the debt problems of developing countries: report of the Executive Committee on Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations (New York, 20 May 1999)

Includes bibliography