The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England - an assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans

Climate change is expected to produce reductions in water availability in England, potentially necessitating adaptive action by the water industry to maintain supplies. As part of Ofwat's fifth Periodic Review (PR09), water companies recently released their draft Water Resources Management Plans, setting out how each company intends to maintain the balance between the supply and demand for water over the next 25 years, following Environment Agency guidelines. This paper reviews these plans to determine company estimates of the impact of climate change on water supply relative to other resource pressures. The approaches adopted for incorporating the impact in the plans and the proposed management solutions are also identified. Climate change impacts for individual resource zones range from no reductions in deployable output to greater than 50% over the planning period. The estimated national aggregated loss of deployable output under a “core” climate scenario is ~520 Ml/d (3% of deployable output) by 2034/35, the equivalent of the supply of one entire water company (South West Water). Climate change is the largest single driver of change in water supplies over the planning period. Over half of the climate change impact is concentrated in southern England. In extreme cases, climate change uncertainty is of the same magnitude as the change under the core scenario (up to a loss of ~475 Ml/d). 44 of the 68 resource zones with available data are estimated to have a climate change impact. In 35 of these climate change has the greatest impact although in 10 zones sustainability reductions have a greater impact. Of the overall change in downward pressure on the supply-demand balance over the planning period, ~56% is accounted for by increased demand (620 Ml/d) and supply side climate change accounts for ~37% (407 Ml/d). Climate change impacts have a cumulative impact in concert with other changing supply side reducing components increasing the national pressure on the supply-demand balance. Whilst the magnitude of climate change appears to justify its explicit consideration, it is rare that adaptation options are planned solely in response to climate change but as a suite of options to provide a resilient supply to a range of pressures (including significant demand side pressures). Supply-side measures still tend to be considered by water companies to be more reliable than demand-side measures.

How do markets manage water resources? An experiment

We experimentally test how a private monopoly, a duopoly and a public utility allocate water of differing qualities to households and farmers. Most of our results are in line with the theoretical predictions. Overexploitation of the resources is observed independently of the market structure. Stock depletion for the public utility is the fastest, followed by the private duopoly and private monopoly. On the positive aspects of centralized public management, we find that the average quality to price ratio offered by the public monopoly is substantially higher than that offered by the private monopoly or duopoly.

Limnology of Macrobrachium amazonicum grow-out ponds subject to high inflow of nutrient-rich water and different stocking and harvest management

We evaluated the water characteristics and particle sedimentation in Macrobrachium amazonicum (Heller 1862) grow-out ponds supplied with a high inflow of nutrient-rich water. Prawns were subject to different stocking and harvesting strategies: upper-graded juveniles, lower-graded juveniles, non-graded juveniles + selective harvesting and traditional farming (non-grading juveniles and total harvest only). Dissolved oxygen, afternoon N-ammonia and N-nitrate and soluble orthophosphate were lower in the ponds in comparison with inflow water through the rearing cycle. Ponds stocked with the upper population fraction of graded prawns showed higher turbidity, total suspended solids and total Kjeldahl nitrogen than the remaining treatments. An increase in the chemical oxygen demand:biochemical oxygen demand ratio from inlet (4.9) to pond (7.1-8.0) waters indicated a non-readily biodegradable fraction enhancement in ponds. The sedimentation mean rate ranged from 0.08 to 0.16 mm day(-1) and sediment contained >80% of organic matter. The major factors affecting pond ecosystem dynamic were the organic load (due to primary production and feed addition) and bioturbation caused by stocking larger animals. Data suggest that M. amazonicum grow-out in ponds subjected to a high inflow of nutrient-rich water produce changes in the water properties, huge accumulation of organic sediment at the pond bottom and non-readily biodegradable material in the water column. However, the water quality remains suitable for aquaculture purposes. Therefore, nutrient-rich waters, when available, may represent a source of unpaid nutrients, which may be incorporated into economically valued biomass if managed properly.

Determination of the quality index of a Paleudult under sunflower culture and different management systems

Soil is an essential resource for life and its properties are susceptible to be modified by tillage systems. The impact of management practices on soil functions can be assessed through a soil quality index. It is interesting to assess soil quality in different soil types. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the soil quality index of a Paleudult under different management conditions and sunflower culture. The experiment was carried out in Botucatu (SP, Brazil), in an 11-year non-tilled area used for growing soybean and maize during summer and black oat or triticale in winter. Four management systems were considered: no-tillage with a hoe planter (NTh), no-tillage with a double-disk planter (NTd), reduced tillage (RT) and conventional tillage (CT). Soil samples were taken from the planting lines at harvest time. To determine the soil quality indices, following the methodology proposed by Karlen and Stott (1994), three main soil functions were assessed: soil capacity for root development, water storage capacity of the soil and nutrient supply capacity of the soil. The studied Paleudult was considered a soil with good quality under all the observed management systems. However, the soil quality indices varied between treatments being 0.64, 0.68, 0.86 and 0.79 under NTh, NTd, RT and CT, respectively. Physical attributes such as resistance to penetration and macroporosity increased the soil quality index in RT and CT compared to NTh and NTd. The soil quality indices obtained suggested that the evaluated soil is adequate for sunflower production under our study conditions. In view of the SQI values, RT is the most suitable management for this site since it preserves soil quality and provides an acceptable sunflower yield. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Water management and river basins in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Network for Cooperation in Integrated Water Resource Management for Sustainable Development in Latin America and the Caribbean N° 41

• Editorial remarks.-- Open discussion: Tariffs and subsidies: the current situation and trends in the region ; State-owned utilities and the flight from public law: challenges and trends ; Challenges and opportunities in access to water and sanitation in rural areas.-- Meetings: Proposals based on the Water and Environment Initiative consensuses.-- News of the Network: Peru’s Compensation Mechanisms for Ecosystem Services Act ; Ecuador’s Act on Water Resources and Water Use and Exploitation ; The environmental dynamics of groundwater in Mexico ; The Water Citizenship Programme in the province of Mendoza, Argentina.-- Internet and WWW News

Network for Cooperation in Integrated Water Resource Management for Sustainable Development in Latin America and the Caribbean No. 42

Editorial remarks.-- Open discussion: Conceptual change in regulation in a model of public service provision ; Policies and institutional frameworks for drinking water supply and sanitation ; Strategies for low-carbon development in megacities in Latin America ; Adapting to climate change in water management in the irrigation sector.-- Meetings: Towards a vision on natural resource governance for equality ; Water resources faced with uncertainty and the risk of climate change ; Regulation challenges in the water sector.-- News of the Network: Lessons to be drawn from the interprovincial Colorado River flow distribution agreement ; Rural drinking water programme in Chile ; Ecuador’s Act on Water Resources and Water Use and Exploitation.-- Internet and WWW News

Herbicides in the upper Poxim River, Sergipe, and the risk of contamination of water resources

Increased agricultural activity in watershed areas has been causing concern over contamination by herbicides in agricultural areas. The problem becomes more important when contamination can affect water for human consumption, as happens with water from the Poxim river, which supplies the city of Aracaju, capital of the State of Sergipe. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of contamination by herbicides to both surface and groundwater in the upper sub-basin of the Poxim River, and to detect the presence of the active ingredients Diuron and Ametrine up-river from the sugar-cane plantations. Risk analysis was carried out using criteria from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the GUS index, and the GOSS method. It was observed that several active ingredients are at risk of leaching, demonstrating the importance of monitoring the river to control both the quality of water and the frequency and volume of herbicides used in the region. Based on the results, monitoring was carried out bi-monthly from July 2009 to July 2010 at two sampling points. Water samples were analyzed in the laboratory, where the presence of Diuron and Ametrine was noted. Water quality in the Sub-basin of the Rio Poxim is being influenced by the use of herbicides in the region. There was an increase in herbicide concentration in the surface water during the rainy season, possibly caused by soil runoff.

Microbiological quality assessment of sand and water from three selected beaches of South Coast, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

This study aimed to assess the sanitary quality of water, and wet and dry sand from three beaches located in the South Coast region of Sao Paulo State, Brazil, selected taking into account the frequency of tourists and the water quality (good, fair and poor). Thirty-six water samples each of wet and dry sand and seawater were collected monthly over a period of one year and analyzed for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB: thermotolerant coliforms, Escherichia coli, and enterococci), presumptive Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Candida albicans and dermatophytes. The results revealed FIB concentrations more elevated in dry sand followed by wet sand and water. P. aeruginosa and presumptive S. aureus were detected with a similar frequency in water and sand samples, but maximum concentrations and geometric means were higher in dry sand. C. albicans was detected only in water samples whereas the dermatophyte Microsporum sp. was isolated exclusively from dry and wet sand samples. This evaluation showed also that the environment had a significant influence on P. aeruginosa but not on presumptive S. aureus concentrations. According to threshold values proposed in the literature for E. coli and enterococci dry sand densities, none of the beaches would be considered of sufficient quality for recreational activities.

Lake Ladoga: Water Resources for the Sustainable Development of North-Western Russia and Finland

The aim of this project was to evaluate the present state and possible changes of water resources in Lake Ladoga and its drainage basin for the purposes of the sustainable development of North-Western Russia and Finland. The group assessed the state of the water resources in quantitative and qualitative terms, taking the system of sustainable development indicators suggested by the International Commission on Sustainable Development as a basis for assessment. These include pressure indicators (annual withdrawals of ground and surface water, domestic consumption of water per capita), state indicators (ground water reserves, concentration of faecalcoliform in fresh water, biochemical oxygen demand), and response indicators (waste-water treatment coverage, density of hydrological networks). The group proposed the following additional indicators and indices for the complex evaluation of the qualitative and quantitative state of the region's water resources: * Pressure indicators (external load, coefficient of anthropogenic pressure) * State indicators and indices (concentrations of chemicals in water, concentrations of chemicals in sediments, index of water pollution, critical load, critical limit, internal load, load/critical load, concentration/critical limit, internal load/external load, trophic state, biotic indicators and indices) * Response indicators (discharges of pure water, polluted water, partly treated water and the ratio between these, trans-boundary fluxes of pollutants, state expenditure on environmental protection, human life span) The assessment considered both temporal and spatial aspects and produced a regional classification of the area according to the index of water pollution. Mathematical models were developed to describe and forecast the processes under way in the lake and can be used to estimate the influence of climatic changes on the hydrological regime, as well as the influence of anthropogenic load on the trophic state of Lake Ladoga and to assess the consequences of accidental discharges of polluting admixtures of different kinds into the lake. The results of this mathematical modelling may be of use to decision-makers responsible for the management of water resources.

The impact of sustainable construction and knowledge management on sustainability goals. A review of the venezuelan renewable energy sector

The recognition of the relevance of energy, especially of the renewable energies generated by the sun, water, wind, tides, modern biomass or thermal is growing significantly in the global society based on the possibility it has to improve societies′ quality of life, to support poverty reduction and sustainable development. Renewable energy, and mainly the energy generated by large hydropower generation projects that supply most of the renewable energy consumed by developing countries, requires many technical, legal, financial and social complex processes sustained by innovations and valuable knowledge. Besides these efforts, renewable energy requires a solid infrastructure to generate and distribute the energy resources needed to solve the basic needs of society. This demands a proper construction performance to deliver the energy projects planned according to specifications and respecting environmental and social concerns, which implies the observance of sustainable construction guidelines. But construction projects are complex and demanding and frequently face time and cost overruns that may cause negative impacts on the initial planning and thus on society. The renewable energy issue and the large renewable energy power generation and distribution projects are particularly significant for developing countries and for Latin America in particular, as this region concentrates an important hydropower potential and installed capacity. Using as references the performance of Venezuelan large hydropower generation projects and the Guri dam construction, this research evaluates the tight relationship existing between sustainable construction and knowledge management and their impact to achieve sustainability goals. The knowledge management processes are proposed as a basic strategy to allow learning from successes and failures obtained in previous projects and transform the enhancement opportunites into actions to improve the performance of the renewable energy power generation and distribution projects.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Geology, hydrology, and quality of water in the Madera area, San Joaquin Valley, California /

Three folded maps in pocket.