Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Do women in female-dominated occupations exit the labour market more? Evidence from Italy, Spain, Denmark and the UK

Literature on sex occupational segregation has typically focused on the micro and macro determinants of it, on mobility patterns over the life course, on implications of segregation and mobility for gender inequalities. Rarely the link between sex-type occupations and women’s risk of labour market interruptions over family formation has been explored. In this piece of work we shall analyse whether women who are working in the female-dominated, male-dominated or integrated occupations have more or less chances to remain attached to the labour market, controlling for qualifications, class, sector and contract positions. By drawing from ECHP, and comparing Italy, Spain, Denmark and the UK, we shall in particular see whether such connection varies across countries with different institutional and cultural configurations.We find that, ceteris paribus, only in the UK the sex-composition of an occupation matters: women in female occupations are more likely to move to inactivity than women in mixed or male occupations. In the other countries considered the main cleavages lie elsewhere. In Italy what matters most is the sector of employment (public vs. private). In Spain the sector is relevant too, but also social class and the type of contract held (permanent vs. temporary). In Denmark women’s transitions to inactivity are largely independent of human capital and job characteristics.

Global mass wasting during the Middle Ordovician: Meteoritic trigger or plate-tectonic environment ?

Mass wasting at continental margins on a global scale during the Middle Ordovician has recently been related to high meteorite influx. Although a high meteorite influx during the Ordovician should not be neglected, we challenge the idea that mass wasting was mainly produced by meteorite impacts over a period of almost 10 Ma. Having strong arguments against the impact-related hypothesis, we propose an alternative explanation, which is based on a re-evaluation of the mass wasting sites, considering their plate-tectonic distribution and the global sea level curve. A striking and important feature is the distribution of most of the mass wasting sites along continental margins characterised by periods of magmatism, terrane accretion and continental or back-arc rifting, respectively, related to subduction of oceanic lithosphere. Such processes are commonly connected with seismic activity causing earthquakes, which can cause downslope movement of sediment and rock. Considering all that, it seems more likely that most of this mass wasting was triggered by earthquakes related to plate-tectonic processes, which caused destabilisation of continental margins resulting in megabreccias and debris flows. Moreover, the period of mass wasting coincides with sea level drops during global sea level lowstand. In some cases, sea level drops can release pore-water overpressure reducing sediment strength and hence promoting instability of sediment at continental margins. Reduced pore-water overpressure can also destabilise gas hydrate-bearing sediment, causing slope failure, and thus resulting in submarine mass wasting. Overall, the global mass wasting during the Middle Ordovician does not need meteoritic trigger. (C) 2010 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

Morphostructural analysis of an alpine debris flows catchment: implication for debris supply

Rock slope instabilities are implicitly linked to the supply of sediment and debris recharging channels prone to debris flow. Hence, the incorporation of bedrock structure and terrain morphology can be relevant in the analysis of sediment budget and debris flow hazard assessment. Here, the mode of debris production of the Manival catchment (northern French Alps) is documented by the study of its morphostructural aspects extracted from high resolution DEM. Terrain implication in the process of debris supply is evaluated by: a) A systematic classification of the major morphological units based on the slope gradient that enables a spatial analysis of zones of debris production and deposition. b) A detailed structural analysis performed on DEM in order to identify potential unstable slopes. c) An analysis of the gullies orientation that informs in term of structural control of the sources zones. d) Localisation of high density joints sets that document about whether sources of continuous debris production are controlled by the structural setting of the catchment. These DEM-based indicators can be used as proxies for assessing the influences of the current topography and enable to quantify a degree of susceptibility to mass wasting and hillslope erosion activity. This present contribution suggests some directions for characterizing sediment flux dynamic in small alpine catchment.

Importance of international linkages for local know-how flows. Some econometric evidence from Belgium

External knowledge is an important input for the innovation process of firms. Increasingly, this knowledge is likely to originate fromoutside of their national borders. This explains the preoccupationof policymakers with stimulating local technology transfers coming from international firms. We find that firms that have access to the international technology market are more likely to transfer technology to the local economy. In doing so, we qualify the traditional assertion that multinational firms are more likelyto transfer technology to the local economy. Once controlled for the superior access to the international technology market that multinationals enjoy, we find that these firms are not more likelyto transfer technology to the local economy compared to exportingor local firms that have access to the international technology market. In summary, the main result of this paper is that it isnot so much the international character of the firms, but rathertheir access to the international technology market that is important for generating external knowledge transfers to the local economy.

Implementation, elimination of weakly dominated strategies and evolutionary dynamics

This paper is concerned with the realism of mechanisms that implementsocial choice functions in the traditional sense. Will agents actually playthe equilibrium assumed by the analysis? As an example, we study theconvergence and stability properties of Sj\"ostr\"om's (1994) mechanism, onthe assumption that boundedly rational players find their way to equilibriumusing monotonic learning dynamics and also with fictitious play. Thismechanism implements most social choice functions in economic environmentsusing as a solution concept the iterated elimination of weakly dominatedstrategies (only one round of deletion of weakly dominated strategies isneeded). There are, however, many sets of Nash equilibria whose payoffs maybe very different from those desired by the social choice function. Withmonotonic dynamics we show that many equilibria in all the sets ofequilibria we describe are the limit points of trajectories that havecompletely mixed initial conditions. The initial conditions that lead tothese equilibria need not be very close to the limiting point. Furthermore,even if the dynamics converge to the ``right'' set of equilibria, it stillcan converge to quite a poor outcome in welfare terms. With fictitious play,if the agents have completely mixed prior beliefs, beliefs and play convergeto the outcome the planner wants to implement.

Bubbles and capital flows

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as a substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles could eventually provide a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.

Geometry, petrology and growth of a shallow crustal laccolith : the Torres del Paine Mafic Complex (Patagonia)

1. ABSTRACTS - RÉSUMÉSSCIENTIFIC ABSTRACT - ENGLISH VERSIONGeometry, petrology and growth of a shallow crustal laccolith: the Torres del Paine Mafi c Complex (Patagonia)The Torres del Paine intrusive complex (TPIC) is a composite mafic-granitic intrusion, ~70km2, belonging to a chain of isolated Miocene plutons in southern Patagonia. Their position is intermediate between the Mesozoic-Cenozoic calc-alkaline subduction related Patagonian batholith in the West and the late Cenozoic alkaline basaltic back-arc related plateau lavas in the East. The Torres del Paine complex formed during an important reconfiguration of the Patagonian geodynamic setting, with a migration of magmatism from the arc to the back-arc, possibly related to the Chile ridge subductionThe complex intruded the flysch of the Cretaceous Cerro Toro and Punta Barrosa Formations during the Miocene, creating a well-defined narrow contact aureole of 200-400 m width.In its eastern part, the Torres del Paine intrusive complex is a laccolith, composed of a succession of hornblende-gabbro to diorite sills at its base, with a total thickness of ~250m, showing brittle contacts with the overlying granitic sills, that form spectacular cliffs of more than 1000m. This laccolith is connected, in the western part, to its feeding system, with vertical alternating sheets of layered gabbronorite and Hbl-gabbro, surrounded and percolated by diorites. ID-TIMS U-Pb on zircons on feeder zone (FZ) gab- bros yield 12.593±0.009Ma and 12.587±0.009Ma, which is identifcal within error to the oldest granite dated so far by Michel et al. (2008). In contrast, the laccolith mafic complex is younger than than the youngest granite (12.50±0.02Ma), and has been emplaced from 12.472±0.009Ma to 12.431 ±0.006Ma, by under-accretion beneath the youngest granite at the interface with previously emplaced mafic sills.The gabbronorite crystallization sequence in the feeder zone is dominated by olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene, while amphibole forms late interstitial crystals. The crystallization sequence is identical in Hornblende-gabbro from the feeder zone, with higher modal hornblende. Gabbronorite and Hornblende-gabbro both display distinct Eu and Sr positive anomalies. In the laccolith, a lower Hornblende-gabbro crystallized in sills and evolved to a high alkali shoshonitic series. The Al203, Ti02, Na20, K20, Ba and Sr composition of these gabbros is highly variable and increases up to ~50wt% Si02. The lower hornblende-gabbro is characterized by kaersutite anhedral cores with inclusions of olivine, clino- and orthopyroxene and rare apatite and An70 plagioclase. Trace element modelling indicates that hornblende and clinopyroxene are in equilibrium with a liquid whose composition is similar to late basaltic trachyandesitic dikes that cut the complex. The matrix in the lower hornblende gabbro is composed of normally zoned oligoclase, Magnesio-hornblende, biotite, ilmenite and rare quartz and potassium feldspar. This assemblage crystallized in-situ from a Ba and Sr-depleted melts. In contrast, the upper Hbl-gabbro is high-K calc-alkaline. Poikilitic pargasite cores have inclusions of euhedral An70 plagioclase inclusions, and contain occasionally clinopyroxene, olivine and orthopyroxene. The matrix composition is identical to the lower hornblende-gabbro and similar to the diorite. Diorite bulk rock compositions show the same mineralogy but different modal proportions relative to hornblende-gabbrosThe Torres del Paine Intrusive Complex isotopic composition is 87Sr/86Sr=0.704, 143Nd/144Nd=0.5127, 206Pb/204Pb=18.70 and 207Pb/204Pb=15.65. Differentiated dioritic and granitic units may be linked to the gabbroic cumulates series, with 20-50% trapped interstitial melt, through fractionation of olivine-bearing gabbronorite or hornblende-gabbro fractionation The relative homogeneity of the isotopic compositions indicate that only small amounts of assimilation occurred. Two-pyroxenes thermometry, clinopyroxene barometry and amphibole-plagioclase thermometry was used to estimate pressure and temperature conditions. The early fractionation of ultramafic cumulates occurs at mid to lower crustal conditions, at temperatures exceeding 900°C. In contrast, the TPIC emplacement conditions have been estimated to ~0.7±0.5kbar and 790±60°C.Based on field and microtextural observations and geochemical modelling, fractionation of basaltic-trachyandesitic liquids at intermediate to lower crustal levels, has led to the formation of the Torres del Paine granites. Repetitive replenishment of basaltic trachy- andesitic liquid in crustal reservoirs led to mixed magmas that will ascend via the feeder zone, and crystallize into a laccolith, in the form of successive dioritic and gabbroic sills. Dynamic fractionation during emplacement concentrated hornblende rich cumulates in the center of individual sills. Variable degrees.of post-emplacement compaction led to the expulsion of felsic liquids that preferentially concentrated at the top of the sills. Incremental sills amalgamation of the entire Torres del Paine Intrusive Complex has lasted for ~160ka.RESUME SCIENTIFIQUE - VERSION FRANÇAISEGéométrie, pétrologie et croissance d'un laccolite peu profond : Le complexe ma- fique du Torres del Paine (Patagonie)Le Complexe Intrusif du Torres del Paine (CITP) est une intrusion bimodale, d'environ 70km2, appartenant à une chaîne de plutons Miocènes isolés, dans le sud de la Patago-nie. Leur position est intermédiaire entre le batholite patagonien calco-alcalin, à l'Ouest, mis en place au Mesozoïque-Cenozoïque dans un contexte de subduction, et les basal-tes andésitiques et trachybasaltes alcalins de plateau, plus jeune, à l'Est, lié à l'ouverture d'un arrière-arc.A son extrémité Est, le CITP est une succession de sills de gabbro à Hbl et de diorite, sur une épaisseur de ~250m, avec des évidences de mélange. Les contacts avec les sills de granite au-dessus, formant des parois de plus de 1000m, sont cassants. Ce laccolite est connecté, dans sa partie Ouest, à une zone d'alimentation, avec des intrusions sub-ver- ticales de gabbronorite litée et de gabbro à Hbl, en alternance. Celles-ci sont traversées et entourées par des diorites. Les zircons des gabbros de la zone d'alimentation, datés par ID-TIMS, ont cristallisés à 12.593±0.009Ma et 12.587±0.009Ma, ce qui correspond au plus vieux granite daté à ce jour par Michel et al. (2008). A l'inverse, les roches manques du laccolite se sont mises en place entre 12.472±0.009Ma et 12.431 ±0.006Ma, par sous-plaquage successifs à l'interface avec le granite le plus jeune daté à ce jour (12.50±0.02Ma).La séquence de cristallisation des gabbronorites est dominée par Ol, Plg, Cpx et Opx, alors que la Hbl est un cristal interstitiel. Elle est identique dans les gabbros à Hbl de la zone d'alimentation, avec ~30%vol de Hbl. Les gabbros de la zone d'alimentation montrent des anomalies positives en Eu et Sr distinctes. Dans le laccolite, le gabbro à Hbl inférieur évolue le long d'une série shoshonitique, riche en éléments incompatibles. Sa concentration en Al203, Ti02, Na20, K20, Ba et Sr est très variable et augmente rapide-ment jusqu'à ~50wt% Si02. Il est caractérisé par la présence de coeurs résorbés de kaer- sutite, entourés de Bt, et contenant des inclusions d'OI, Cpx et Opx, ou alors d'Ap et de rares Plg (An70). Hbl et Cpx ont cristallisés à partir d'un liquide de composition similaire aux dykes trachy-andesite basaltique du CITP. La matrice, cristallisée in-situ à partir d'un liquide pauvre en Ba et Sr, est composée d'oligoclase zoné de façon simple, de Mg-Hbl, Bt, llm ainsi que de rares Qtz et KF. Le gabbro à Hbl supérieur, quant à lui, appartient à une suite chimique calco-alcaline riche en K. Des coeurs poecilitiques de pargasite con-tiennent de nombreuses inclusions de Plg (An70) automorphe, ainsi que des Ol, Cpx et Opx. La composition de la matrice est identique à celle des gabbros à Hbl inférieurs et toutes deux sont similaires à la minéralogie des diorites. Les analyses sur roches totales de diorites montrent la même variabilité que celles de gabbros à Hbl, mais avec une ten-eur en Si02 plus élevée.La composition isotopique des liquides primitifs du CITP a été mesurée à 87Sr/86Sr=0.704, 143Nd/144Nd=0.5127, 206Pb/204Pb=18.70 et 207Pb/204Pb=15.65. Les granites et diorites différenciés peuvent être reliés à des cumulais gabbronoritiques (F=0.74 pour les granites et F=1-0.5 pour les diorites) et gabbroïques à Hbl (fractionnement supplémentaire pour les granites, avec F=0.3). La cristallisation de 20 à 50%vol de liquide interstitiel piégé dans les gabbros du CITP explique leur signature géochimique. Seules de faibles quantités de croûte continentale ont été assimilées. La température et la pression de fractionnement ont été estimées, sur la base des thermobaromètres Opx-Cpx, Hbl-Plg et Cpx, à plus de 900°C et une profondeur correspondant à la croûte inférieure-moyenne. A l'inverse, les conditions de cristallisation de la matrice des gabbros et diorites du laccolite ont été estimées à 790±60°C et ~0.7±0.5kbar.Je propose que les liquides felsiques du CITP se soient formés par cristallisation frac-tionnée en profondeur des assemblages minéralogiques observés dans les gabbros du CITP, à partir d'un liquide trachy-andesite basaltique. La percolation de magma dans les cristaux accumulés permet la remontée du mélange à travers la zone d'alimentation, vers le laccolite, où des sills se mettent en place successivement. L'amalgamation de sills dans le CITP a duré ~160ka.Le CITP s'est formé durant une reconfiguration importante du contexte géodynamique en Patagonie, avec un changement du magmatisme d'arc vers un volcanisme d'arrière- arc. Ce changement est certainement lié à la subduction de la ride du Chili.RESUME GRAND PUBLIC - VERSION FRANÇAISEGéométrie, pétrologie et croissance d'une chambre magmatique peu profonde : Le complexe mafique du Torres del Paine (Patagonie)Le pourtour de l'Océan Pacifique est caractérisé par une zone de convergence de plaques tectoniques, appelée zone de subduction, avec le plongement de croûte océa-nique sous les Andes dans le cas de la Patagonie. De nombreux volcans y sont associés, formant la ceinture de feu. Mais seuls quelques pourcents de tout le magma traversant la croûte terrestre parviennent à la surface et la majeure partie cristallise en profondeur, dans des chambres magmatiques. Quelles est leur forme, croissance, cristallisation et durée de vie ? Le complexe magmatique du Torres del Paine représente l'un des meilleurs endroits au monde pour répondre à ces questions. Il se situe au sud de la Patagonie, formant un massif de 70km2. Des réponses peuvent être trouvées à différentes échelles, variant de la montagne à des minéraux de quelques 1000ème de millimètres.Il est possible de distinguer trois types de roches : des gabbros et des diorites sur une épaisseur de 250m, surmontées par des parois de granite de plus de 1000m. Les contacts entre ces roches sont tous horizontaux. Entre granites et gabbro-diorite, le contact est net, indiquant que le second magma s'est mis en place au contact avec un magma plus ancien, totalement solidifié. Entre gabbros et diorites, les contacts sont diffus, souvent non-linéaires, indiquant à l'inverse la mise en contact de magmas encore partiellement liquides. Dans la partie Ouest de cette chambre magmatique, les contacts entre roches sont verticaux. Il s'agit certainement du lieu de remplissage de la chambre magmatique.Lors du refroidissement d'un magma, différents cristaux vont se former. Leur stabilité et leur composition varient en fonction de la pression, de la température ou de la chimie du magma. La séquence de cristallisation peut être définie sur la base d'observations microscopiques et de la composition chimique des minéraux. Différents gabbros sont ainsi distingués : le gabbro à la base est riche en hornblende, d'une taille de ~5mm, sans inclusion de plagioclase mais avec des cristaux d'olivine, clinopyroxene et orthopyroxene inclus ; le gabbro supérieur est lui-aussi riche en hornblende (~5mm), avec les mêmes inclusions additionnées de plagioclase. Ces cristaux se sont formés à une température supérieure à 900°C et une profondeur correspondant à la croûte moyenne ou inférieure. Les minéraux plus fin, se trouvant hors des cristaux de hornblende des deux gabbros, sont similaires à ceux des diorites : plagioclase, biotite, hornblende, apatite, quartz et feldspath alcalin. Ces minéraux sont caractéristiques des granites. Ils ont cristallisé à ~790°C et ~2km de profondeur.La cristallisation des minéraux et leur extraction du magma par gravité provoque un changement progressif de la composition de ce dernier. Ainsi, après extraction d'olivine et d'orthopyroxene riches en Mg, de clinopyroxene riche en Ca, de plagioclase riche en Ca et Al et d'hornblende riche en Ca, Al et Mg, le liquide final sera appauvri en ces élé-ments. Un lien peut ainsi être proposé entre les diorites dont la composition est proche du liquide de départ, les granites dont la composition est similaire au liquide final, et les gabbros dont la minéralogie correspond aux minéraux extraits.L'utilisation de zircons, un minéral riche en U dont les atomes se transforment en Pb par décomposition radioactive au cours de millions d'années, permet de dater le refroidissement des roches qui les contiennent. Ainsi, il a été observé que les roches de la zone d'alimentation, à l'Ouest du complexe magmatique, ont cristallisés il y a 12.59±0.01 Ma, en même temps que les granites les plus vieux, se trouvant au sommet de la chambre magmatique, datés par Michel et al. (2008). Les deux roches pourraient donc avoir la même origine. A l'inverse, les gabbros et diorites de la chambre magmatique ont cristallisé entre 12.47±0.01Ma et 12.43±0.01Ma, les roches les plus vieilles étant à la base.En comparant la composition des roches du Torres del Paine avec celles d'autres en-tités géologiques de Patagonie, les causes du magmatisme peuvent être recherchées. A l'Ouest, on trouve en effet des intrusions granitiques, plus anciennes, caractéristiques de zones de convergence de plaque tectonique, alors qu'à l'Est, des laves basaltiques plus jeunes sont caractéristiques d'une dynamique d'extension. Sur la base des compositions chimiques des roches de ces différentes entités, l'évolution progressive de l'une à l'autre a pu être démontrée. Elle est certainement due à l'arrivée d'une dorsale océanique (zone d'extension crustale et de création de croûte océanique par la remontée de magma) dans la zone de subduction, le long des Andes.Je propose que, dans un premier temps, des magmas granitiques sont remontés dans la chambre magmatique, laissant d'importants volumes de cristaux dans la croûte pro-fonde. Dans un second épisode, les cristaux formés en profondeur ont été transportés à travers la croûte continentale, suite au mélange avec un nouveau magma injecté. Ces magmas chargés de cristaux ont traversé la zone d'alimentation avant de s'injecter dans la chambre magmatique. Différents puises ont été distingués, injectés dans la chambre magmatique du sommet à la base concernant les granites, puis à la base du granite le plus jeune pour les gabbros et diorites. Le complexe magmatique du Torres del Paine s'est construit sur une période totale de 160'000±20'000 ans.

Endogeneizing know-how flows through the nature of R&D investments

In this paper we carefully link knowledge flows to and from a firm s innovation process with this firm s investment decisions. Three types of investments are considered: investments in applied research, investments in basic research, and investments in intellectual property protection. Only when basic research is performed, can the firm effectively access incoming knowledge flows and these incoming spillovers serve to increase the efficiency of own applied research. The firm can at the same time influence outgoing knowledge flows, improving appropriability of its innovations, by investing in protection. Our results indicate that firms with small budgets for innovation will not invest in basic research. This occurs in the short run, when the budget for know-how creation is restricted, or in the long-run, when market opportunities are low, when legal protection is not very important, or, when the pool of accessible and relevant external know-how is limited. The ratio of basic to applied research is non-decreasing in the size of the pool of accessible external know-how, the size and opportunity of the market, and, the effectiveness of intellectual property rights protection. This indicates the existence of economies of scale in basic research due to external market related factors. Empirical evidence from a sample of innovative manufacturing firms in Belgium confirms the economies of scale in basic research as a consequence of the firm s capacity to access external knowledge flows and to protectintellectual property, as well as the complementarity between legal and strategic investments.

Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks ( crises ) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) the most important one shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Recent evidence from Spanish regions

In recent years, Spain has received unprecedented immigration flows. Between 2001 and 2006 the fraction of the population born abroad more than doubled, increasing from4.8% to 10.8%. For Spanish provinces with above-median inflows (relative to population),immigration increased by 24% the number of high school dropouts while only increasingcollege graduates by 11%. We study different channels by which regional labor markets haveabsorbed the large increase in relative supply of low educated workers. We identify theexogenous supply shock using historical immigrant settlement patterns by country of origin.Using data from the Labor Force Survey and the decennial Census, we find a large expansion ofemployment in high immigration regions. Disaggregating by industry, the absorption operatedthrough large increases in the share of low-educated workers, compared to the same industry inlow-immigration regions. We do not find changes in sectoral specialization. Overall, andperhaps surprisingly, the pattern of absorption is very similar to the one found in the US.

Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents,dubbed gross capital flows, over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show thatgross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. Whenforeigners invest in a country, domestic agents invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flowsare also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners invest more domestically and domesticagents invest more abroad. During crises, total gross flows collapse and there is a retrenchmentin both inflows by foreigners and outflows by domestic agents. These patterns hold for differenttypes of capital flows and crises. This evidence sheds light on the sources of fluctuations drivingcapital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. Our findings seem consistent withcrises affecting domestic and foreign agents asymmetrically, as would be the case under thepresence of sovereign risk or asymmetric information.