Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.

Designing dietary interventions: a reappraisal of the demographic and socio-economic determinants of dietary choice in the UK

The facilitation of healthier dietary choices by consumers is one of the key elements of the UK Government’s food strategy. Designing and targeting dietary interventions requires a clear understanding of the determinants of dietary choice. Conventional analysis of the determinants of dietary choice has focused on mean response functions which may mask significant differences in the dietary behaviour of different segments of the population. In this paper we use a quantile regression approach to investigate how food consumption behaviour varies amongst UK households in different segments of the population, especially in the upper and lower quantiles characterised by healthy or unhealthy consumption patterns. We find that the effect of demographic determinants of dietary choice on households that exhibit less healthy consumption patterns differs significantly from that on households that make healthier consumption choices. A more nuanced understanding of the differences in the behavioural responses of households making less-healthy eating choices provides useful insights for the design and targeting of measures to promote healthier diets.

Attitudinal and demographic determinants of diet quality and implications for policy targeting

Background:  Poor diet quality is a major public health concern that has prompted governments to introduce a range of measures to promote healthy eating. For these measures to be effective, they should target segments of the population with messages relevant to their needs, aspirations and circumstances. The present study investigates the extent to which attitudes and constraints influence healthy eating, as well as how these vary by demographic characteristics of the UK population. It further considers how such information may be used in segmented diet and health policy messages. Methods:  A survey of 250 UK adults elicited information on conformity to dietary guidelines, attitudes towards healthy eating, constraints to healthy eating and demographic characteristics. Ordered logit regressions were estimated to determine the importance of attitudes and constraints in determining how closely respondents follow healthy eating guidelines. Further regressions explored the demographic characteristics associated with the attitudinal and constraint variables. Results:  People who attach high importance to their own health and appearance eat more healthily than those who do not. Risk-averse people and those able to resist temptation also eat more healthily. Shortage of time is considered an important barrier to healthy eating, although the cost of a healthy diet is not. These variables are associated with a number of demographic characteristics of the population; for example, young adults are more motivated to eat healthily by concerns over their appearance than their health. Conclusions:  The approach employed in the present study could be used to inform future healthy eating campaigns. For example, messages to encourage the young to eat more healthily could focus on the impact of diets on their appearance rather than health.

Predicting outcomes following cognitive behavior therapy in child anxiety disorders: the influence of genetic, demographic and clinical information

Background. Within a therapeutic gene by environment (GxE) framework, we recently demonstrated that variation in the Serotonin Transporter Promoter Polymorphism; 5HTTLPR and marker rs6330 in Nerve Growth Factor gene; NGF is associated with poorer outcomes following cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for child anxiety disorders. The aim of this study was to explore one potential means of extending the translational reach of G×E data in a way that may be clinically informative. We describe a ‘risk-index’ approach combining genetic, demographic and clinical data and test its ability to predict diagnostic outcome following CBT in anxious children. Method. DNA and clinical data were collected from 384 children with a primary anxiety disorder undergoing CBT. We tested our risk model in five cross-validation training sets. Results. In predicting treatment outcome, six variables had a minimum mean beta value of 0.5: 5HTTLPR, NGF rs6330, gender, primary anxiety severity, comorbid mood disorder and comorbid externalising disorder. A risk index (range 0-8) constructed from these variables had moderate predictive ability (AUC = .62-.69) in this study. Children scoring high on this index (5-8) were approximately three times as likely to retain their primary anxiety disorder at follow-up as compared to those children scoring 2 or less. Conclusion. Significant genetic, demographic and clinical predictors of outcome following CBT for anxiety-disordered children were identified. Combining these predictors within a risk-index could be used to identify which children are less likely to be diagnosis free following CBT alone or thus require longer or enhanced treatment. The ‘risk-index’ approach represents one means of harnessing the translational potential of G×E data.

The impacts of learning styles, learning patterns and demographic factors on learners’ performance in a blended learning environment

Many studies have widely accepted the assumption that learning processes can be promoted when teaching styles and learning styles are well matched. In this study, the synergy between learning styles, learning patterns, and gender as a selected demographic feature and learners’ performance were quantitatively investigated in a blended learning setting. This environment adopts a traditional teaching approach of ‘one-sizefits-all’ without considering individual user’s preferences and attitudes. Hence, evidence can be provided about the value of taking such factors into account in Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems (AEHSs). Felder and Soloman’s Index of Learning Styles (ILS) was used to identify the learning styles of 59 undergraduate students at the University of Babylon. Five hypotheses were investigated in the experiment. Our findings show that there is no statistical significance in some of the assessed factors. However, processing dimension, the total number of hits on course website and gender indicated a statistical significance on learners’ performance. This finding needs more investigation in order to identify the effective factors on students’ achievement to be considered in Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems (AEHSs).

How reliable is internet-based self-reported identity, socio-demographic and obesity measures in European adults?

In e-health intervention studies, there are concerns about the reliability of internet-based, self-reported (SR) data and about the potential for identity fraud. This study introduced and tested a novel procedure for assessing the validity of internet-based, SR identity and validated anthropometric and demographic data via measurements performed face-to-face in a validation study (VS). Participants (n = 140) from seven European countries, participating in the Food4Me intervention study which aimed to test the efficacy of personalised nutrition approaches delivered via the internet, were invited to take part in the VS. Participants visited a research centre in each country within 2 weeks of providing SR data via the internet. Participants received detailed instructions on how to perform each measurement. Individual’s identity was checked visually and by repeated collection and analysis of buccal cell DNA for 33 genetic variants. Validation of identity using genomic information showed perfect concordance between SR and VS. Similar results were found for demographic data (age and sex verification). We observed strong intra-class correlation coefficients between SR and VS for anthropometric data (height 0.990, weight 0.994 and BMI 0.983). However, internet-based SR weight was under-reported (Δ −0.70 kg [−3.6 to 2.1], p < 0.0001) and, therefore, BMI was lower for SR data (Δ −0.29 kg m−2 [−1.5 to 1.0], p < 0.0001). BMI classification was correct in 93 % of cases. We demonstrate the utility of genotype information for detection of possible identity fraud in e-health studies and confirm the reliability of internet-based, SR anthropometric and demographic data collected in the Food4Me study.

Concordant Phylogeographies of 2 Malaria Vectors Attest to Common Spatial and Demographic Histories

The phylogeography of South American lineages is a topic of heated debate. Although a single process is unlikely to describe entire ecosystems, related species, which incur similar habitat limitations, can inform the history for a subsection of assemblages. We compared the phylogeographic patterns of the cytochrome oxidase I marker from Anopheles triannulatus (N = 72) and previous results for A. darlingi (N = 126) in a broad portion of their South American distributions. Both species share similar population subdivisions, with aggregations northeast of the Amazon River, in southern coastal Brazil and 2 regions in central Brazil. The average (ST) between these groups was 0.39 for A. triannulatus. Populations northeast of the Amazon and in southeastern Brazil are generally reciprocally monophyletic to the remaining groups. Based on these initial analyses, we constructed the a priori hypothesis that the Amazon and regions of high declivity pose geographic barriers to dispersal in these taxa. Mantel tests confirmed that these areas block gene flow for more than 1000 km for both species. The efficacy of these impediments was tested using landscape genetics, which could not reject our a priori hypothesis but did reject simpler scenarios. Results form summary statistics and phylogenetics suggest that both lineages originated in central Amazonia (south of the Amazon River) during the late Pleistocene (579 000 years ago) and that they followed the same paths of expansion into their contemporary distributions. These results may have implications for other species sharing similar ecological limitations but probably are not applicable as a general paradigm of Neotropical biogeography.

Risks Associated With Tendinitis: Effects From Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Psychological Status Among Brazilian Workers

Background Self-reported tendinitis/tenosynovitis was evaluated by gender, age group, skin color, family income, and educational and psychological status. Methods The study was carried out in a representative sample of formally contracted Brazilian workers from a household survey. A total of 54,660 participants were included. Occupations were stratified according to estimated prevalences of self-reported injuries. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed, and all variables were analyzed in two occupational groups. Results The overall prevalence rate of tendinitis/tenosynovitis was 3.1%: 5.5% in high-prevalence occupations (n=10,726); and 2.5% in low-prevalence occupations (n=43,934). White female workers between the ages of 45 and 64 years and at a higher socioeconomic level were more likely to report tendinitis/tenosynovitis regardless of their occupational category. An adjusted OR = 3.59 [95% CI: 3.15-4.09] was found between tendinitis/tenosynovitis and psychological status. Conclusion Among formally contracted Brazilian workers, higher income can imply greater physical and psychological demands that, regardless of occupational stratum, increase the risk of tendinitis/tenosynovitis. Am. J. Ind. Med. 53:72-79, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Explaining sleep duration in adolescents: The impact of socio-demographic and lifestyle factors and working status

Previous studies found students who both work and attend school undergo a partial sleep deprivation that accumulates across the week. The aim of the present study was to obtain information using a questionnaire on a number of variables (e.g., socio-demographics, lifestyle, work timing, and sleep-wake habits) considered to impact on sleep duration of working (n = 51) and non-working (n = 41) high-school students aged 14-21 yrs old attending evening classes (19:00-22:30h) at a public school in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected for working days and days off. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to assess the factors associated with sleep duration on weekdays and weekends. Work, sex, age, smoking, consumption of alcohol and caffeine, and physical activity were considered control variables. Significant predictors of sleep duration were: work (p < 0.01), daily work duration (8-10h/day; p < 0.01), sex (p = 0.04), age 18-21 yrs (0.01), smoking (p = 0.02) and drinking habits (p = 0.03), irregular physical exercise (p < 0.01), ease of falling asleep (p = 0.04), and the sleep-wake cycle variables of napping (p < 0.01), nocturnal awakenings (p < 0.01), and mid-sleep regularity (p < 0.01). The results confirm the hypotheses that young students who work and attend school showed a reduction in night-time sleep duration. Sleep deprivation across the week, particularly in students working 8-10h/day, is manifested through a sleep rebound (i.e., extended sleep duration) on Saturdays. However, the different roles played by socio-demographic and lifestyle variables have proven to be factors that intervene with nocturnal sleep duration. The variables related to the sleep-wake cyclenaps and night awakeningsproved to be associated with a slight reduction in night-time sleep, while regularity in sleep and wake-up schedules was shown to be associated with more extended sleep duration, with a distinct expression along the week and the weekend. Having to attend school and work, coupled with other socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, creates an unfavorable scenario for satisfactory sleep duration.

Demographic characteristics and prevalence of serologic markers among blood donors who use confidential unit exclusion (CUE) in Sao Paulo, Brazil: implications for modification of CUE polices in Brazil

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated demographic profiles and prevalence of serologic markers among donors who used confidential unit exclusion (CUE) to assess the effectiveness of CUE and guide public policies regarding the use of CUE for enhancing safety versus jeopardizing the blood supply by dropping CUE. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of whole blood donations at a large public blood center in Sao Paulo from July 2007 through June 2009, compared demographic data, and confirmed serologic results among donors who used and who have never used CUE (CUE never). RESULTS: There were 265,550 whole blood units collected from 181,418 donors from July 2007 through June 2009. A total of 9658 (3.6%) units were discarded, 2973 (1.1%) because CUE was used at the current donation (CUE now) and 6685 (2.5%) because CUE was used in the past (CUE past). The CUE rate was highest among donors with less than 8 years of education (odds ratio [OR], 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.51-3.08). CUE now donations were associated with higher positive infectious disease marker rates than CUE never donations (OR, 1.41; CI, 1.13-1.77), whereas CUE past donations were not (OR, 1.04; CI, 0.75-1.45). CONCLUSION: The CUE process results in a high rate of unit discard. CUE use on an individual donation appears predictive of a high-risk marker-positive donation and, thus, appears to contribute modestly to blood safety. The policy of discarding units from donors who have previously CUE-positive donations does not improve safety and should be discontinued.