Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

Genetic algorithms: a survey

Genetic algorithms provide an alternative to traditional optimization techniques by using directed random searches to locate optimal solutions in complex landscapes. We introduce the art and science of genetic algorithms and survey current issues in GA theory and practice. We do not present a detailed study, instead, we offer a quick guide into the labyrinth of GA research. First, we draw the analogy between genetic algorithms and the search processes in nature. Then we describe the genetic algorithm that Holland introduced in 1975 and the workings of GAs. After a survey of techniques proposed as improvements to Holland's GA and of some radically different approaches, we survey the advances in GA theory related to modeling, dynamics, and deception

Soft condensed matter: A survey and a proposal

Pn this perspective on the increasingly important field of soft condensed matter science, I make the case for a concentrated multidisciplinary effort to develop the area in India. I base my arguments on its demonstrated potential for new 'emergent' phenomena, interesting table-top experiments, and applications.

Status Survey of the Malabar Pied Hornbill in the Dandeli Region, Northern Western Ghats, India

The Malabar Pied Hornbill, Anthracoceros coronatus, is a near threatened species, endemic to the tropical deciduous forests of central and southern India and Sri Lanka. The Dandeli region in Karnataka (India) is believed to be the last stronghold of this species in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot. Being a rapidly developing area with a growing human population, the threats to this species and their habitat are mounting, especially due to a large number of hydroelectric projects and habitat fragmentation caused by paper and plywood industries. This study evaluated the change in population status of the Malabar Pied Hornbill over a 23 year period and defined priorities for the long term conservation and monitoring of hornbills in Dandeli. Encounter rates of hornbills were also analysed in relation to the density and species richness of trees and fruiting trees, basal area, canopy cover and distance from river. Hornbill encounters were not significantly different compared to the earlier study carried out by Reddy in 1988, but were significantly different across the five sites in the current study. Higher numbers of hornbills were encountered closer to the river, but these results were only marginally significant. The mean numbers of hornbills recorded at the two roost sites identified in Dandeli were 26 +/- 4.47 (n=16 counts) and 31.78 +/- 3.53 (n=14 counts) respectively. The study also helped build local awareness about the species, train local Forest Department staff in monitoring hornbills and develop a management plan for its conservation.

Landscape valuation through discrete choice experiments: Current practice and future research reflections

This work has been presented in: V Conference AERNA, Faro (Portugal), 30 May 2012-1 June 2012 and IV Workshop on Valuation Methods in Agro-food and Environmental Economics, Castelldefels (Barcelona, Spain), 12 July 2012-13 July 2012.

Survey of the fatty acid composition of Canadian beef: Backfat and longissimus lumborum muscle

[EN]A survey of Canadian retail beef was undertaken with emphasis on the trans fatty acid (TFA) and conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) isomers, and compared with current health recommendations. Thirty striploin steaks were collected in the winter and summer from major grocery stores in Calgary (Alberta, Canada). Steak fatty acid compositions (backfat and longissimus lumborum muscle analysed separately) showed minor seasonal differences with lower total saturates (PB0.05) and higher total monounsaturates (PB 0.01) in winter, but no differences in total polyunsaturated fatty acids. The ratio of n-6 and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid in longissimus lumborum averaged 5.8. The average TFA content in longissimus lumborum was 0.128 g 100 g_1 serving size, and 10t-18:1 was found to be the predominant isomer (32% of total trans), while vaccenic acid was second most abundant (15% of total trans). The CLA content in longissimus lumborum was similar to that of backfat, ranging from 0.43 to 0.60% of total fatty acids and rumenic acid represented 60% of total isomers. Overall, there is still room for improvement in the saturated, mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acid composition of Canadian beef to meet general dietary guidelines for human consumption and additional targets should include reducing 10t-18:1 while increasing both rumenic and vaccenic acids.

Habitat mapping effort at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary – Current status and future needs

With elevating interest to establish conservation efforts for groundfish stocks and continued scrutiny over the value of marine protected areas along the west coast, the importance of enhancing our knowledge of seabed characteristics through mapping activities is becoming increasingly more important, especially in a timely manner. Shortly after the inception of the Seabed Mapping Initiative instituted with the US Geological Survey (USGS), the National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) assembled a panel of habitat mapping experts. They determined that the status of existing data sets and future data acquisition needs varied widely among the individual sanctuaries and that more detailed site assessments were needed to better prioritize mapping efforts and outline an overall joint strategy. To assist with that specific effort and provide pertinent information for the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary’s (OCNMS) Management Plan Review, this report summarizes the mapping efforts that have taken place at the site to date; calculates a timeframe for completion of baseline mapping efforts when operating under current data acquisition limitations; describes an optimized survey strategy to dramatically reduce the required time to complete baseline surveying; and provides estimates for the needed vessel sea-days (DAS) to accomplish baseline survey completion within a 2, 5 and 10 year timeframe. (PDF contains 38 pages.)

Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary Habitat Mapping: Survey report and classification of side scan sonar data from surveys HMPR-114-2004-02 and HMPR-116-2005-01.

The Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) continues to invest significant resources into seafloor mapping activities along Washington’s outer coast (Intelmann and Cochrane 2006; Intelmann et al. 2006; Intelmann 2006). Results from these annual mapping efforts offer a snapshot of current ground conditions, help to guide research and management activities, and provide a baseline for assessing the impacts of various threats to important habitat. During the months of August 2004 and May and July 2005, we used side scan sonar to image several regions of the sea floor in the northern OCNMS, and the data were mosaicked at 1-meter pixel resolution. Video from a towed camera sled, bathymetry data, sedimentary samples and side scan sonar mapping were integrated to describe geological and biological aspects of habitat. Polygon features were created and attributed with a hierarchical deep-water marine benthic classification scheme (Greene et al. 1999). For three small areas that were mapped with both side scan sonar and multibeam echosounder, we made a comparison of output from the classified images indicating little difference in results between the two methods. With these considerations, backscatter derived from multibeam bathymetry is currently a costefficient and safe method for seabed imaging in the shallow (<30 meters) rocky waters of OCNMS. The image quality is sufficient for classification purposes, the associated depths provide further descriptive value and risks to gear are minimized. In shallow waters (<30 meters) which do not have a high incidence of dangerous rock pinnacles, a towed multi-beam side scan sonar could provide a better option for obtaining seafloor imagery due to the high rate of acquisition speed and high image quality, however the high probability of losing or damaging such a costly system when deployed as a towed configuration in the extremely rugose nearshore zones within OCNMS is a financially risky proposition. The development of newer technologies such as intereferometric multibeam systems and bathymetric side scan systems could also provide great potential for mapping these nearshore rocky areas as they allow for high speed data acquisition, produce precisely geo-referenced side scan imagery to bathymetry, and do not experience the angular depth dependency associated with multibeam echosounders allowing larger range scales to be used in shallower water. As such, further investigation of these systems is needed to assess their efficiency and utility in these environments compared to traditional side scan sonar and multibeam bathymetry. (PDF contains 43 pages.)

Pre-construction coral survey of the M/V Wellwood Grounding Site: April 23-24, 2002

This report documents abundance and cover for selected elements of the benthic coral reef assemblage at the site of the 1984 grounding of the M/V Wellwood on Molasses Reef, Florida Keys. The purpose of the effort was to establish a pre-construction baseline before the installation of reef modules at the site. The installation process is intended to stabilize fractured substrates that were recently exposed by storm impacts, and to provide three-dimensional relief in order to enhance reef community recovery. It is hoped that the restoration effort will result in a biological assemblage with the character of the transition community that would exist there had the incident not occurred. To date, the assemblage has developed the character of a comparatively featureless hard ground similar in composition to hard ground areas and transition zones surrounding the grounding site. These data will allow scientists and resource managers to better track the trajectory of recovery following the installation of modules. Direct counts of scleractinian and gorgonian corals, hydrocorals of the genus Millepora, and zoanthids of the genus Palythoa were made in three areas within and around the grounding site. The site is poorly developed with respect to scleractinian colony size and cover compared to surrounding areas. Key scleractinian species necessary for the development of topographic relief in the area denuded by the grounding are not well represented in the current community. Though gorgonian cover and richness is similar in all study areas, gorgonian community recovery in the damaged area is not complete. Unlike surrounding areas, one species, Pseudopterogorgia americana, accounts for over half of all corals at the grounding site, over 80% of all gorgonians, and nearly all the coral cover. Based on these findings and other observations made in the 18 years since the grounding, recommendations are made that should be considered in the course of human intervention targeted at stabilizing and enhancing the site. (PDF contains 24 pages.)

Information access survey: Western Visayas, Philippines

The aim of this report is to provide brief profiles of the main stakeholders within the aquatic resources and fisheries sectors in Western Visayas, to describe their access to information, and the communication between and within stakeholder groups, organizations and institutions within the sector. The report goes on to identify current needs and key action points which might maximize efficient communication. (PDF contains 68 pages)

Taxonomic and ecological survey of the flora of Calvert County, Maryland

Resulted from a occasional field trips on the Patuxent River, 1964-1968. Taxonomy and ecology survey following the quarter method (Cottam and Curtis, 1956) Includes: Literature review: Forests, soils, ecology; Materials and Methods: location, criteria, map of Calvert county; Results: descriptive, species of trees sampled; soils, ecology; discussion: vegetational, soils, ecology; Summary; Climate; Physical features of Calvert County; Botanical descriptions; Tables, Current checklist of vascular plants; selective bibliography

Survey on the status of Computational Design research and practice

This report presents the results from a survey of current practice in the use of design optimization conducted amongst UK companies. The survey was completed by the Design Optimization Group in the Department of Engineering at Cambridge University. The general aims of this research were to understand the current status of design optimization research and practice and to identify ways in which the use of design optimization methods and tools could be improved.

The resource appraisal survey of clupeids in Kainji Lake, Nigeria

This study includes an analysis of the trawl survey that was carried out by the Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project in May, 1997. The objective of the survey was to assess the biomass and the potential yield of clupeids and the carrying capacity of the beach seine fishery in the entire Kainji Lake (Nigeria). The biomass of the beach seine by-catch was also estimated. The density (kg /km super(3)) of the clupeids was higher in the Bussa and Foge than in the other stations. The lowest density of clupeids was in the Anfani station followed by Jetty, both in the southern basin. These stations were the deepest parts of all the areas trawled, measuring between 37-120 m of depth. There was an inverse correlation between depth trawled and the catch rates of clupeids, though the correlation was poor. The average annual biomass of the clupeids was estimated at 36,769.85 Mt in the entire Lake with an MSY of 11,705.95 Mt. The smaller species, Sierrathrissa leonensis, made up about 97% of the total clupeid population in the lake and occurred at a shallower depth than the larger species Pellonula afzeliusi. From the clupeid production statistics in 1996, it is estimated that the MSY is already overshot by 34%. Therefore, about 698 beach seines instead of the present 810 would be sufficient for sustainable exploitation of the clupeid stocks. Because of the substantial by-catch in the beach seines, this fishing method was banned from Kainji Lake in 1997. An offshore open water seine net is recommended to replace the beach seines on the lake. The number of these nets should not exceed 500. The current ban on beach seine is supported by this study. Nevertheless, and since the ban may not be 100% effective, effort should concentrate on maintaining that the number of beach seines must be kept at most at the present level. Recommendation is made against the introduction of the pair trawling not only from an economic point of view but also for resource conservation, legal and social reasons. The development of this fishery could pose a serious danger to continuity of stocks. It is proposed that priority be given to the development of an open water seine which is at the same level of exploitation as the beach seine and requires similar cost to acquire. (PDF contains 39 pages)

The nutritional status of pre-school children, Kainji Lake communities, Nigeria: a follow-up survey

This survey was carried out to provide the Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project (KLFPP), whose overall goal is the improvement of the standard of living of fishing communities around Kainji Lake, Nigeria, managing the fisheries on a sustainable basis, with follow-up data for long-term monitoring and evaluation of the overall project goal. A similar survey, conducted in 1996, provided the baseline against which data from the current survey was evaluated. In a cross-sectional survey, anthropometric data was collected from 576 children aged 3-60 months in 282 fisherfolk households around the southern sector of Kainji Lake, Nigeria. In addition, data was collected on the nutritional status and fertility of the mothers, vaccination coverage of children and child survival indicators. For control purposes, 374 children and 181 mothers from non-fishing households around Kainji Lake were likewise covered by the survey. A standardised questionnaire was used to collect relevant data, while anthropometric measurements were made using appropriate equipment. Data compilation and analysis was carried out with a specially designed Microsoft Access application, using NCHS reference data for the analysis of anthropometric measurements. Statistical significance testing was done using EPI-INFO" software. The results of the follow-up survey indicate a slight increase in the percentage of stunted pre-school children in fishing households around Kainji Lake, from 40% in 1996 to 41% in 1999. This increase is however not statistically significant (p= 0.704). Over the same period, the percentage of stunted children in non-fishing households increased from 37% to 39% (p= 0.540), which is also not statistically significant. Likewise, there were no statistically significant differences between the 1996 and 1999 results for the prevalence of either wasted or underweight children in fishing households. The same applies to children from non-fishing households. In addition, vaccination coverage remains very low while infant and child mortality rates continue to be extremely high with about 1 in 5 children dying before their fifth birthday. There has been no perceptible and lasting improvement in the standard of living of fishing households over the course of the second project phase as indicated by the persistently high prevalence of stunting. The situation is the same for the control group, indicating that for the region as a whole, a number of factors beyond the immediate influence of the project continue to negatively impact on the standard of living. The results also show that the project activities have not had any negative long-term effect on the nutritional status of the beneficiaries. (PDF contains 44 pages)

Beyond the blur: Construction and characterization of the first autonomous AO system and An AO survey of magnetar proper motions

Adaptive optics (AO) corrects distortions created by atmospheric turbulence and delivers diffraction-limited images on ground-based telescopes. The vastly improved spatial resolution and sensitivity has been utilized for studying everything from the magnetic fields of sunspots upto the internal dynamics of high-redshift galaxies. This thesis about AO science from small and large telescopes is divided into two parts: Robo-AO and magnetar kinematics.

In the first part, I discuss the construction and performance of the world’s first fully autonomous visible light AO system, Robo-AO, at the Palomar 60-inch telescope. Robo-AO operates extremely efficiently with an overhead < 50s, typically observing about 22 targets every hour. We have performed large AO programs observing a total of over 7,500 targets since May 2012. In the visible band, the images have a Strehl ratio of about 10% and achieve a contrast of upto 6 magnitudes at a separation of 1′′. The full-width at half maximum achieved is 110–130 milli-arcsecond. I describe how Robo-AO is used to constrain the evolutionary models of low-mass pre-main-sequence stars by measuring resolved spectral energy distributions of stellar multiples in the visible band, more than doubling the current sample. I conclude this part with a discussion of possible future improvements to the Robo-AO system.

In the second part, I describe a study of magnetar kinematics using high-resolution near-infrared (NIR) AO imaging from the 10-meter Keck II telescope. Measuring the proper motions of five magnetars with a precision of upto 0.7 milli-arcsecond/yr, we have more than tripled the previously known sample of magnetar proper motions and proved that magnetar kinematics are equivalent to those of radio pulsars. We conclusively showed that SGR 1900+14 and SGR 1806-20 were ejected from the stellar clusters with which they were traditionally associated. The inferred kinematic ages of these two magnetars are 6±1.8 kyr and 650±300 yr respectively. These ages are a factor of three to four times greater than their respective characteristic ages. The calculated braking index is close to unity as compared to three for the vacuum dipole model and 2.5-2.8 as measured for young pulsars. I conclude this section by describing a search for NIR counterparts of new magnetars and a future promise of polarimetric investigation of a magnetars’ NIR emission mechanism.