Currency Issues and Options for an Independent Scotland

In this paper we take on the role of a ‘virtual consultant’ to a potentially independent Scotland. What should the exchange rate regime of an independent Scotland look like? We argue that the current proposal of the Scottish government to remain part of the sterling zone is doomed to failure, both because it falls short of a full political and monetary union and because it fails to recognize the reality of the Scottish economy post independence. We argue that the only tenable solution for an independent Scotland is to have a separate currency and for this currency to have some flexibility against Scotland’s main trading partners. One option offered here is managed float or crawl against a basket of currencies.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Decision Errors, Legal Uncertainty and Welfare: a General Treatment

This paper provides a general treatment of the implications for welfare of legal uncertainty. We distinguish legal uncertainty from decision errors: though the former can be influenced by the latter, the latter are neither necessary nor sufficient for the existence of legal uncertainty. We show that an increase in decision errors will always reduce welfare. However, for any given level of decision errors, information structures involving more legal uncertainty can improve welfare. This holds always, even when there is complete legal uncertainty, when sanctions on socially harmful actions are set at their optimal level. This transforms radically one’s perception about the “costs” of legal uncertainty. We also provide general proofs for two results, previously established under restrictive assumptions. The first is that Effects-Based enforcement procedures may welfare dominate Per Se (or object-based) procedures and will always do so when sanctions are optimally set. The second is that optimal sanctions may well be higher under enforcement procedures involving more legal uncertainty.

Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Female residents experiencing medical errors in general internal medicine: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Doctors, especially doctors-in-training such as residents, make errors. They have to face the consequences even though today's approach to errors emphasizes systemic factors. Doctors' individual characteristics play a role in how medical errors are experienced and dealt with. The role of gender has previously been examined in a few quantitative studies that have yielded conflicting results. In the present study, we sought to qualitatively explore the experience of female residents with respect to medical errors. In particular, we explored the coping mechanisms displayed after an error. This study took place in the internal medicine department of a Swiss university hospital. METHODS: Within a phenomenological framework, semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight female residents in general internal medicine. All interviews were audiotaped, fully transcribed, and thereafter analyzed. RESULTS: Seven main themes emerged from the interviews: (1) A perception that there is an insufficient culture of safety and error; (2) The perceived main causes of errors, which included fatigue, work overload, inadequate level of competences in relation to assigned tasks, and dysfunctional communication; (3) Negative feelings in response to errors, which included different forms of psychological distress; (4) Variable attitudes of the hierarchy toward residents involved in an error; (5) Talking about the error, as the core coping mechanism; (6) Defensive and constructive attitudes toward one's own errors; and (7) Gender-specific experiences in relation to errors. Such experiences consisted in (a) perceptions that male residents were more confident and therefore less affected by errors than their female counterparts and (b) perceptions that sexist attitudes among male supervisors can occur and worsen an already painful experience. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers an in-depth account of how female residents specifically experience and cope with medical errors. Our interviews with female residents convey the sense that gender possibly influences the experience with errors, including the kind of coping mechanisms displayed. However, we acknowledge that the lack of a direct comparison between female and male participants represents a limitation while aiming to explore the role of gender.

Type II Errors in IO Multipliers

This paper compares methods for calculating Input-Output (IO) Type II multipliers. These are formulations of the standard Leontief IO model which endogenise elements of household consumption. An analytical comparison of the two basic IO Type II multiplier methods with the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach identifies the treatment of non-wage income generated in production as a central problem. The multiplier values for each of the IO and SAM methods are calculated using Scottish data for 2009. These results can be used to choose which Type II IO multiplier to adopt where SAM multiplier values are unavailable.

Separation of free amino acids in human plasma by capillary electrophoresis with laser induced fluorescence: potential for emergency diagnosis of inborn errors of metabolism.

Free amino acids (AAs) in human plasma are derivatized with 3-(4-carboxybenzoyl)quinoline-2-carboxaldehyde (CBQCA) and analyzed by capillary electrophoresis (CE) with laser induced fluorescence (LIF) detection. The labeling procedure is significantly improved over results reported previously. Derivatization can be completed in 40 min, with concentrations as low as 4 x 10(-8) M successfully labeled in favourable cases. Twenty-nine AAs (including 2 internal standards) are identified and can be reproducibly separated in 70 min. Migration time RSD values for 23 of these AAs were calculated and found in the range from 0.5 to 4%. The rapid derivatization procedure and the resolution obtained in the separation are sufficient for a semi-quantitative, emergency diagnosis of several inborn errors of metabolism (IEM). Amino acid profiles for both normal donor plasma samples and plasma samples of patients suffering from phenylketonuria, tyrosinemia, maple syrup urinary disease, hyperornithinemia, and citrullinemia are studied.

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

Errors sintàctics del gènere gramatical durant la cirurgia de gliomes cerebrals

Les bases neurals del processament sintàctic del gènere no han estat gairebé estudiades. En aquest estudi hem utilitzat el mapeig cerebral, durant la cirurgia de gliomes cerebrals per a estudiar les estructures cortico-subcorticals implicades en el processament del gènere i determinar si aquestes són comunes a altres àrees de la producció del llenguatge. Amb l’estimulació cerebral directa hem observat alteracions sintàctiques del gènere, al estimular la circumvolució frontal inferior, la part posterior circumvolució temporal mitja, i en el nucli caudat. També hem pogut observar, una doble dissociació entre el gènere gramatical i la producció de la paraula, corroborant les teories d’un model independent en la producció del llenguatge.

The cognitive errors and coping patterns of child molesters as assessed by external observers: a pilot study

Cognitive errors (CE) and coping strategies (CS) are the focus of most cognitive-behavioral treatments for incarcerated child molesters. Several studies have reported differences in CEs and CSs between child molesters and controls. However, the vast majority of these studies assessed cognitive errors and coping using questionnaires, which are known to present a number of important limitations. This pilot study aimed to compare the CEs and CSs of N = 17 incarcerated child abusers and N = 12 controls using observer-rated methods, namely the Cognitive Error Rating Scale (CERS; Drapeau et al., 2005) and the Coping Action Pattern Rating Scale (CAPRS; Perry, Drapeau, & Dunkley, 2005). Results showed that child molesters presented more cognitive errors, in particular positive selective abstraction, and lower coping functioning, such as escape strategies. Treatment and research implications, including the use of observer-rated methods, are discussed.

Change in cognitive errors and coping over the course of brief psychodynamic intervention.

OBJECTIVE: Cognitive change over the course of psychodynamic psychotherapy has been postulated by several models, but has rarely been studied. Based on the adaptive skills model (Badgio, Halperin, & Barber, 1999), it is reasonable to expect that very brief dynamic psychotherapy may be associated with change in coping patterns and cognitive errors (also known as cognitive distortions) y. METHOD: N = 50 outpatients presenting with various psychiatric disorders and undergoing 4 sessions of Brief Psychodynamic Intervention (BPI; Despland, Drapeau, & de Roten, 2005; Despland, Michel, & de Roten, 2010) were included in this naturalistic study (mean age: 31 years; 56% female; all Caucasian). Cognitive errors and coping strategies were assessed using the Cognitive Errors Rating Scale (Drapeau et al., 2008) and Coping Patterns Rating Scale (Perry et al., 2005). These observer rated methods were applied to the verbatim transcriptions of all 4 therapy sessions completed by each patient. RESULTS: Results indicate change in both cognitive errors and coping patterns over the course of BPI, including an increase in the Overall Coping Functioning and a decrease in unhelpful coping processes, such as isolation, which reflects a shift in participant appraisal towards stress appraised as a challenge at the end of treatment. These changes predicted symptom change at the end of treatment. While cognitive errors also changed over the course of BPI, no predictive effect was found with regard to symptom change. CONCLUSIONS: These results are interpreted within the framework of common change principles in psychotherapy. Implications and future research are discussed.

The London health inequalities forecast: Technical document

This paper describes the data and methods used in the London health inequalities forecast: A briefing on inequalities in life expectancy and deaths from cancers, heart disease and stroke in London. Links to relevant data sources and further information are also provided where possible.