Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a generic crop model template in the cropping system model APSIM

The Agricultural Production Systems slMulator, APSIM, is a cropping system modelling environment that simulates the dynamics of soil-plant-management interactions within a single crop or a cropping system. Adaptation of previously developed crop models has resulted in multiple crop modules in APSIM, which have low scientific transparency and code efficiency. A generic crop model template (GCROP) has been developed to capture unifying physiological principles across crops (plant types) and to provide modular and efficient code for crop modelling. It comprises a standard crop interface to the APSIM engine, a generic crop model structure, a crop process library, and well-structured crop parameter files. The process library contains the major science underpinning the crop models and incorporates generic routines based on physiological principles for growth and development processes that are common across crops. It allows APSIM to simulate different crops using the same set of computer code. The generic model structure and parameter files provide an easy way to test, modify, exchange and compare modelling approaches at process level without necessitating changes in the code. The standard interface generalises the model inputs and outputs, and utilises a standard protocol to communicate with other APSIM modules through the APSIM engine. The crop template serves as a convenient means to test new insights and compare approaches to component modelling, while maintaining a focus on predictive capability. This paper describes and discusses the scientific basis, the design, implementation and future development of the crop template in APSIM. On this basis, we argue that the combination of good software engineering with sound crop science can enhance the rate of advance in crop modelling. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Grasses and legumes as cover crop in no-tillage system in northeastern Pará Brazil

Studies to select one or more species of coverage plants adapted to Amazonian soil and climate conditions of the Amazon are a promising strategy for the improvement of environmental quality, establishing no-till agricultural systems, and thereby reducing the impacts of monoculture farming. The aim of this study was to assess the persistence time, half-life time, macronutrient content and accumulation, and C:N ratio of straw coverage in a Ultisol in northeastern Pará. Experimental design was randomized blocks with five treatments and five replicates. Plants were harvested after 105 days, growth and biomass production was quantified. After 84 days, soil coverage was 97, 85, 52, 50, and 15% for signalgrass (Brachiaria brizantha) (syn. Urochloa), dense crowngrass (Panicum purpurascens), jack bean (Canavalia ensiformes), pearl millet (Pennisetum americanum) and sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea,), respectively. Signalgrass yielded the greatest dry matter production (9,696 kg ha-1). It also had high C:N ratio (38.4), long half-life (86.5 days) and a high persistence in the field. Jack bean also showed high dry matter production (8,950 kg ha-1), but it had low C:N ratio (17.4) and lower half-life time (39 days) than the grasses. These attributes indicate that signalgrass and jack bean have a high potential for use as cover plants in no-till agricultural systems in the State of Pará.

Crop sequences in no-tillage system: effects on soil fertility and soybean, maize and rice yield

Decomposing crop residues in no-tillage system can alter soil chemical properties, which may consequently influence the productivity of succession crops. The objective of this study was to evaluate soil chemical properties and soybean, maize and rice yield, grown in the summer, after winter crops in a no-tillage system. The experiment was carried out in Jaboticabal, SP, Brazil (21 ° 15 ' 22 '' S; 48 ° 18 ' 58 '' W) on a Red Latosol (Oxisol), in a completely randomized block design, in strip plots with three replications. The treatments consisted of four summer crop sequences (maize monocrop, soybean monocrop, soybean/maize rotation and rice/bean/cotton rotation) combined with seven winter crops (maize, sunflower, oilseed radish, pearl millet, pigeon pea, grain sorghum and sunn hemp). The experiment began in September 2002. After the winter crops in the 2005/2006 growing season and before the sowing of summer crops in the 2006/2007 season, soil samples were collected in the layers 0-2.5; 2.5-5.0; 5-10; 10-20; and 20-30 cm. Organic matter, pH, P, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, and H + Al were determined in each soil sample. In the summer soybean/maize rotation and in maize the organic matter contents and P levels were lower, in the layers 0-10 cm and 0-20 cm, respectively. Summer rice/bean/cotton rotation increased soil K levels at 0-10 cm depth when sunn hemp and oilseed radish had previously been grown in the winter, and in the 0-2.5 cm layer for millet. Sunn hemp, millet, oilseed radish and sorghum grown in the winter increased organic matter contents in the soil down to 30 cm. Higher P levels were found at the depths 0-2.5 cm and 0-5 cm, respectively, when sunn hemp and oilseed radish were grown in the winter. Highest grain yields for soybean in monoculture were obtained in succession to winter oilseed radish and sunn hemp and in rotation with maize, after oilseed radish, sunn hemp and millet. Maize yields were highest in succession to winter oilseed radish, millet and pigeon pea. Rice yields were lowest when grown after sorghum.

Soil aggregation in a crop-livestock integration system under no-tillage

Grazing intensities can influence soil aggregation, which can be temporarily and permanently affected. The objective of this study was to evaluate the aggregate stability in water at the end of a soybean cycle and during pasture development in a crop-livestock integration system under no-tillage and grazing intensities. The experiment was initiated in 2001, in a dystrophic Red Latosol, after soybean harvest. Treatments consisted of pasture (black oat + Italian ryegrass) at heights of 10, 20 and 40 cm, grazed by young cattle, and a control (no grazing), followed by soybean cultivation, in a randomized block design. Soil samples were collected at the end of the soybean cycle (May/2007), during animal grazing (September/2007) and at the end of the grazing cycle (November/2007). The grazing period influences aggregate distribution, since in the September sampling (0-5 cm layer), there was a higher proportion of aggregates > 4.76 mm at all grazing intensities. Soil aggregation is higher in no-tillage crop-livestock integration systems in grazed than in ungrazed areas.

Carbon balance and crop residue management in dynamic equilibrium under a no-till system in Campos Gerais

The adoption of no-tillage systems (NT) and the maintenance of crop residues on the soil surface result in the long-term increase of carbon (C) in the system, promoting C sequestration and reducing C-CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the C sequestration rate and the minimum amount of crop residues required to maintain the dynamic C equilibrium (dC/dt = 0) of two soils (Typic Hapludox) with different textural classes. The experiment was arranged in a 2 x 2 x 2 randomized block factorial design. The following factors were analyzed: (a) two soil types: Typic Hapludox (Oxisol) with medium texture (LVTM) and Oxisol with clay texture (LVTA), (b) two sampling layers (0-5 and 5-20 cm), and (c) two sampling periods (P1 - October 2007; P2 - September 2008). Samples were collected from fields under a long-term (20 years) NT system with the following crop rotations: wheat/soybean/black oat + vetch/maize (LVTM) and wheat/maize/black oat + vetch/soybean (LVTA). The annual C sequestration rates were 0.83 and 0.76 Mg ha-1 for LVTM and LVTA, respectively. The estimates of the minimum amount of crop residues required to maintain a dynamic equilibrium (dC/dt = 0) were 7.13 and 6.53 Mg ha-1 year-1 for LVTM and LVTA, respectively. The C conversion rate in both studied soils was lower than that reported in other studies in the region, resulting in a greater amount of crop residues left on the soil surface.

Soybean root growth and crop yield in reponse to liming at the beginning of a no-tillage system

Analyzing the soil near crop roots may reveal limitations to growth and yield even in a no-tillage system. The purpose of the present study was to relate the chemical and physical properties of soil under a no-tillage system to soybean root growth and plant yield after five years of use of different types of limestone and forms of application. A clayey Oxisol received application of dolomitic and calcitic limestones and their 1:1 combination in two forms: surface application, maintained on the soil surface; and incorporated, applied on the surface and incorporated mechanically. Soil physical properties (resistance to mechanical penetration, soil bulk density and soil aggregation), soil chemical properties (pH, exchangeable cations, H+Al, and cation exchange capacity) and plant parameters (root growth system, soybean grain yield, and oat dry matter production) were evaluated five years after setting up the experiment. Incorporation of lime neutralized exchangeable Al up to a depth of 20 cm without affecting the soil physical properties. The soybean root system reached depths of 40 cm or more with incorporated limestone, increasing grain yield an average of 31 % in relation to surface application, which limited the effect of lime up to a depth of 5 cm and root growth up to 20 cm. It was concluded that incorporation of limestone at the beginning of a no-tillage system ensures a favorable environment for root growth and soybean yield, while this intervention does not show long-term effects on soil physical properties under no-tillage. This suggests that there is resilience in the physical properties evaluated.

Physical quality of an Oxisol under an integrated crop-livestock-forest system in the Brazilian Cerrado

Soil physical quality is an important factor for the sustainability of agricultural systems. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate soil physical properties and soil organic carbon in a Typic Acrudox under an integrated crop-livestock-forest system. The experiment was carried out in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Treatments consisted of seven systems: integrated crop-livestock-forest, with 357 trees ha-1 and pasture height of 30 cm (CLF357-30); integrated crop-livestock-forest with 357 trees ha-1 and pasture height of 45 cm (CLF357-45); integrated crop-livestock-forest with 227 trees ha-1 and pasture height of 30 cm (CLF227-30); integrated crop-livestock-forest with 227 trees ha-1 and pasture height of 45 cm (CLF227-45); integrated crop-livestock with pasture height of 30 cm (CL30); integrated crop-livestock with pasture height of 45 cm (CL45) and native vegetation (NV). Soil properties were evaluated for the depths of 0-10 and 10-20 cm. All grazing treatments increased bulk density (r b) and penetration resistance (PR), and decreased total porosity (¦t) and macroporosity (¦ma), compared to NV. The values of r b (1.18-1.47 Mg m-3), ¦ma (0.14-0.17 m³ m-3) and PR (0.62-0.81 MPa) at the 0-10 cm depth were not restrictive to plant growth. The change in land use from NV to CL or CLF decreased soil organic carbon (SOC) and the soil organic carbon pool (SOCpool). All grazing treatments had a similar SOCpool at the 0-10 cm depth and were lower than that for NV (17.58 Mg ha-1).

Soil Aggregation, Organic Carbon Concentration, and Soil Bulk Density As Affected by Cover Crop Species in a No-Tillage System

Soil aggregation and the distribution of total organic carbon (TOC) may be affected by soil tillage and cover crops. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of crop rotation with cover crops on soil aggregation, TOC concentration in the soil aggregate fractions, and soil bulk density under a no-tillage system (NTS) and conventional tillage system (CTS, one plowing and two disking). This was a three-year study with cover crop/rice/cover crop/rice rotations in the Brazilian Cerrado. A randomized block experimental design with six treatments and three replications was used. The cover crops (treatments) were: fallow, Panicum maximum, Brachiaria ruziziensis, Brachiaria brizantha, and millet (Pennisetum glaucum). An additional treatment, fallow plus CTS, was included as a control. Soil samples were collected at the depths of 0.00-0.05 m, 0.05-0.10 m, and 0.10-0.20 m after the second rice harvest. The treatments under the NTS led to greater stability in the soil aggregates (ranging from 86.33 to 95.37 %) than fallow plus CTS (ranging from 74.62 to 85.94 %). Fallow plus CTS showed the highest number of aggregates smaller than 2 mm. The cover crops affected soil bulk density differently, and the millet treatment in the NTS had the lowest values. The cover crops without incorporation provided the greatest accumulation of TOC in the soil surface layers. The TOC concentration was positively correlated with the aggregate stability index in all layers and negatively correlated with bulk density in the 0.00-0.10 m layer.

Development of an Expert System for Forecasting Frost on Bridges and Roadways in Iowa, HR-305, 1991

An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.

Development and Implementation of an Expert System for Forecasting Fog on US Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, HR-357, 1996

Several accidents, some involving fatalities, have occurred on U.S. Highway 30 near the Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Corn Sweeteners plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A contributing factor to many of these accidents has been the large amounts of water (vapor and liquid) emitted from multiple sources at ADM's facility located along the south side of the highway. Weather and road closure data acquired from IDOT have been used to develop a database of meteorological conditions preceding and accompanying closure of Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids. An expert system and a FORTRAN program were developed as aids in decision making with regard to closure of Highway 30 near the plant. The computer programs were used for testing, evaluation, and final deployment. Reports indicate the decision tools have been successfully implemented and were judged to be helpful in forecasting road closures and in reducing costs and personnel time in monitoring the roadway.

Urea and sugarcane straw nitrogen balance in a soil-sugarcane crop system

The objectives of this study were to evaluate nitrogen utilization by sugarcane ratoon from two sources, applied urea and sugarcane straw covering soil surface (trash blanket), besides the recovery of N from both sources in the soil-plant system. The following treatments were established in a randomized block design with four replicates: T1, vinasse-urea (100 kg ha-1 of urea-N) mixture applied on the total area of the soil covered with cane trash labeled with 15N; T2, vinasse-urea mixture (urea labeled with 15N; 100 kg ha-1 of urea-N) applied on the total area of the soil covered with non-labeled sugarcane trash; and T3, urea-15N (100 kg ha-1 of urea-N) applied in furrows at both sides of cane rows, with previous surface application of vinasse, onto soil without trash covering. The vinasse was applied at a rate of 100 m³ ha-1 in all treatments. The experiment was carried out on a Yellow Red Podzolic soil (Paleudalf), from October 1997 to August 1998, in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. The nitrogen use efficiency of urea by the sugarcane ratoon was 21%, while that of the sugarcane straw was 9%. The main contributions of N from sugarcane trash, during one cycle, are the preservation and increase of the organic N in soil. The tendency for a lower accumulation of urea-N in the sugarcane plant, in the soil surface covered with sugarcane residue, was compensated by the assimilation of N from trash mineralization. Nitrogen derived from cane trash was more available to plants in the second half of the ratoon cycle

Soil biological attributes in pastures of different ages in a crop-livestock integrated system

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the pasture (Urochloa brizantha) component age on soil biological properties, in a crop-livestock integrated system. The experiment was carried out in a Brazilian savannah (Cerrado) area with 92 ha, divided into six pens of approximately 15 ha. Each pen represented a different stage of the pasture component: formation, P0; one year, P1; two years, P2; three years, P3; and final with 3.5 years, Pf. Samples were taken in the 0-10 cm soil depth. The soil biological parameters - microbial biomass carbon (MBC), microbial biomass respiration (C-CO2), metabolic quotient (qCO2), microbial quotient (q mic), and total organic carbon (TOC) - were evaluated and compared among different stages of the pasture, and between an adjacent area under native Cerrado and another area under degraded pasture (PCD). The MBC, q mic and TOC increased and qCO2 reduced under the different pasture stages. Compared to PCD, the pasture stages had higher MBC, q mic and TOC, and lower qCO2. The crop-livestock integrated system improved soil microbiological parameters and immobilized carbon in the soil in comparison to the degraded pasture.

Fusarium wilt incidence and common bean yield according to the preceding crop and the soil tillage system

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of preceding crops and tillage systems on the incidence of Fusarium wilt (Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. phaseoli) and common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) yield. The cultivar BRS Valente was cultivated under center‑pivot irrigation in the winter seasons of 2003, 2004 and 2005, after several preceding crops established in the summer seasons. Preceding crops included the legumes Cajanus cajan (pigeon pea), Stylosanthes guianensis, and Crotalaria spectabilis; the grasses Pennisetum glaucum (millet), Sorghum bicolor (forage sorghum), Panicum maximum, and Urochloa brizantha; and a consortium of maize (Zea mays) and U. brizantha (Santa Fé system). Experiments followed a strip‑plot design, with four replicates. Fusarium wilt incidence was higher in the no‑tillage system. Higher disease incidences corresponded to lower bean yields in 2003 and 2004. Previous summer cropping with U. brizantha, U. brizantha + maize consortium, and millet showed the lowest disease incidence. Therefore, the choice of preceding crops must be taken into account for managing Fusarium wilt on irrigated common bean crops in the Brazilian Cerrado.