HDL-C and HDL-C/ApoA-I predict long-term progression of glycemia in established type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE: Low HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) and small HDL particle size may directly promote hyperglycemia. We evaluated associations of HDL-C, apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I), and HDL-C/apoA-I with insulin secretion, insulin resistance, HbA1c, and long-term glycemic deterioration, reflected by initiation of pharmacologic glucose control.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The 5-year Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study followed 9,795 type 2 diabetic subjects. We calculated baseline associations of fasting HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I with HbA1c and, in those not taking exogenous insulin (n = 8,271), with estimated β-cell function (homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function [HOMA-B]) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Among the 2,608 subjects prescribed lifestyle only, Cox proportional hazards analysis evaluated associations of HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I with subsequent initiation of oral hypoglycemic agents (OHAs) or insulin.

RESULTS: Adjusted for age and sex, baseline HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I were inversely associated with HOMA-IR (r = -0.233, -0.134, and -0.230; all P < 0.001; n = 8,271) but not related to HbA1c (all P > 0.05; n = 9,795). ApoA-I was also inversely associated with HOMA-B (r = -0.063; P = 0.002; n = 8,271) adjusted for age, sex, and HOMA-IR. Prospectively, lower baseline HDL-C and HDL-C/apoA-I levels predicted greater uptake (per 1-SD lower: hazard ratio [HR] 1.13 [CI 1.07-1.19], P < 0.001; and HR 1.16 [CI 1.10-1.23], P < 0.001, respectively) and earlier uptake (median 12.9 and 24.0 months, respectively, for quartile 1 vs. quartile 4; both P < 0.01) of OHAs and insulin, with no difference in HbA1c thresholds for initiation (P = 0.87 and P = 0.81). Controlling for HOMA-IR and triglycerides lessened both associations, but HDL-C/apoA-I remained significant.

CONCLUSIONS: HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I were associated with concurrent insulin resistance but not HbA1c. However, lower HDL-C and HDL-C/apoA-I predicted greater and earlier need for pharmacologic glucose control.

Should I stay or should I go – Factors associated with hospitalization risk among older persons in Sweden

An increasingly older population will most likely lead to greater demands on the health care system, as older age is associated with an increased risk of having acute and chronic conditions. The number of diseases or disabilities is not the only marker of the amount of health care utilized, as persons may seek hospitalization without a disease and/or illness that requires hospital healthcare. Hospitalization may pose a severe risk to older persons, as exposure to the hospital environment may lead to increased risks of iatrogenic disorders, confusion, falls and nosocomial infections, i.e., disorders that may involve unnecessary suffering and lead to serious consequences. Aims: The overall aim of this thesis was to describe and explore individual trajectories of cognitive development in relation to hospitalization and risk factors for hospitalization among older persons living in different accommodations in Sweden and to explore older persons' reasons for being transferred to a hospital. Methods: The study designs were longitudinal, prospective and descriptive, and both quantitative and qualitative methods were used. Specifically, latent growth curve modelling was used to assess the association of cognitive development with hospitalization. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyse factors associated with hospitalization risk overtime. In addition, an explorative descriptive design was used to explore how home health care patients experienced and perceived their decision to seek hospital care. Results: The most common reasons for hospitalization were cardiovascular diseases, which caused more than one-quarter of first hospitalizations among the persons living in ordinary housing and nursing home residents (NHRs). The persons who had been hospitalized had a lower mean level of cognitive performance in general cognition, verbal, spatial/fluid, memory and processing speed abilities compared to those who had not been hospitalized. Significantly steeper declines in general cognition, spatial/fluid and processing speed abilities were observed among the persons who had been hospitalized. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that the number of diseases, number of drugs used, having experienced a fall and being assessed as malnourished according to the Mini Nutritional Assessment scale were related to an increased hospitalization risk among the NHRs. Among the older persons living in ordinary housing, the risk factors for hospitalization were related to marital status, i.e., unmarried persons and widows/widowers had a decreased hospitalization risk. In addition, among social factors, receipt of support from relatives was related to an increased hospitalization risk, while receipt of support from friends was related to a decreased risk. The number of illnesses was not associated with the hospitalization risk for older persons in any age group or for those of either sex, when controlling for other variables. The older persons who received home health care described different reasons for their decisions to seek hospital care. The underlying theme of the home health care patients’ perceptions of their transfer to a hospital involved trust in hospitals. This trust was shared by the home health care patients, their relatives and the home health care staff, according to the patients. Conclusions: This thesis revealed that middle-aged and older persons who had been hospitalized exhibited a steeper decline in cognition. Specifically, spatial/fluid, processing speed, and general cognitive abilities were affected. The steeper decline in cognition among those who had been hospitalized remained even after controlling for comorbidities. The most common causes of hospitalization among the older persons living in ordinary housing and in nursing homes were cardiovascular diseases, tumours and falls. Not only health-related factors, such as the number of diseases, number of drugs used, and being assessed as malnourished, but also social factors and marital status were related to the hospitalization risk among the older persons living in ordinary housing and in nursing homes. Some risk factors associated with hospitalization differed not only between the men and women but also among the different age groups. The information provided in this thesis could be applied in care settings by professionals who interact with older persons before they decide to seek hospital care. To meet the needs of an older population, health care systems need to offer the proper health care at the most appropriate level, and they need to increase integration and coordination among health care delivered by different care services.

Análise comportamental : um estudo por análise de sobrevivência, aplicada a cartões de crédito

A capacidade de adaptação e rapidez de decisão, distinguem as empresas que melhor conseguem competir e crescer no mercado global. Para atuar rapidamente, as organizações precisam de sistemas de informação cada vez mais eficazes, surgindo recentemente uma nova função considerada fundamental para as empresas, que é a de Cientista de Dados. É neste contexto e para responder aos desafios atuais e futuros, que surgem sistemas de informação cada vez mais avançados, suportados por modelos de análise e visualização estatística. Este trabalho consiste em criar uma metodologia de desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão de incumprimento e perfil do consumidor, aplicado a cartões de crédito, com base numa exposição de análise comportamental, utilizando técnicas de análise de sobrevivência. São definidas técnicas de tratamento dos dados recolhidos, estimado modelo não-paramétrico de Kaplan-Meier e vários modelos de Cox de riscos proporcionais. Com recurso à curva ROC, dependente do tempo, à AUC e ao índice de Gini, conclui-se que o modelo final apresenta um desempenho positivo para identificar os clientes em situação de incumprimento ou com propensão a incumprir.

Association of HDL cholesterol and triglycerides with mortality in patients with heart failure

It has been demonstrated that there is an association between serum lipoproteins and survival rate in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, as well as in patients with non-ischemic causes of heart failure. We tested the hypothesis of an association between serum lipoprotein levels and prognosis in a cohort of outpatients with heart failure, including Chagas' heart disease. The lipid profile of 833 outpatients with heart failure in functional classes III and IV of the New York Heart Association, with a mean age of 46.9 ± 10.6 years, 655 (78.6%) men and 178 (21.4%) women, was studied from April 1991 to June 2003. The survival rate was estimated by the Kaplan-Meyer's method and the Cox proportional hazards models. Etiology of heart failure was ischemic cardiomyopathy in 171 (21%) patients, Chagas' heart disease in 144 (17%), hypertensive cardiomyopathy in 136 (16%), and other etiologies in 83 (10%). In 299 (36%) patients, heart failure was ascribed to idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Variables significantly associated with mortality were age (hazard ratio, HR = 1.02; 95%CI = 1.01-1.03; P = 0.0074), male gender (HR = 1.77; 95%CI = 1.2-2.62; P = 0.004), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (HR = 1.81; 95%CI = 1.16-2.82; P = 0.0085), serum triglycerides (HR = 0.97; 95%CI = 0.96-0.98; P < 0.0001), and HDL cholesterol (HR = 0.99; 95%CI = 0.99-1.0; P = 0.0280). Therefore, higher serum HDL cholesterol and higher serum triglycerides were associated with lower mortality in this cohort of outpatients with heart failure.

Predictors of death and vascular events in the elderly - The Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-The goal of the present study was to identify risk factors for vascular disease in the elderly. Methods-We conducted a prospective study of control subjects from a population-based study of stroke in Perth, Western Australia, that was completed in 1989 to 1990 and used record linkage and a survey of survivors to identify deaths and nonfatal vascular events. Data validated through reference to medical records were analyzed with the use of Cox proportional hazards models. Results-Follow-up for the 931 subjects was 88% complete. By June 24, 1994, 198 (24%) of the subjects had died (96 from vascular disease), and there had been 45 nonfatal strokes or myocardial infarctions. The hazard ratio for diabetes exceeded 2.0 for all end points, whereas the consumption of meat >4 times weekly was associated with a reduction in risk of less than or equal to 30%. In most models, female sex and consumption of alcohol were associated with reduced risks, whereas previous myocardial infarction was linked to an increase in risk. Conclusions-There are only limited associations between lifestyle and major vascular illness in old age. Effective health promotion activities in early and middle life may be the key to a longer and healthier old age.

Thoracic aorta calcification detected by electron beam tomography predicts all-cause mortality

Background: The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent marker of increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality. However, the predictive value of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), which can be additionally identified without further scanning during assessment of CAC, is unknown. Methods: We followed a cohort of 8401 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 53 +/- 10 years, 69% men) undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and TAC and CAC testing with electron beam computed tomography. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality based on the presence of TAC. Results: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 124 (1.5%) deaths were observed. Overall survival was 96.9% and 98.9% for those with and without detectable TAC, respectively (p < 0.0001). Compared to those with no TAC, the hazard ratio for mortality in the presence of TAC was 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.65, p < 0.0001) in unadjusted analysis. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking and family history of premature coronary artery disease, and presence of CAC the relationship remained robust (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.27, p = 0.015). Likelihood ratio chi(2) statistics demonstrated that the addition of TAC contributed significantly in predicting mortality to traditional risk factors alone (chi(2) = 13.62, p = 0.002) as well as risk factors + CAC (chi(2) = 5.84, p = 0.02) models. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of TAC was associated with all-cause mortality in our study; this relationship was independent of conventional CVD risk factors as well as the presence of CAC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Viral Load Predicts New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, Independent of CD4 T Lymphocyte Value

Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.

Increased muscle sympathetic nerve activity predicts mortality in heart failure patients

Background: Previous studies have associated neurohumoral excitation, as estimated by plasma norepinephrine levels, with increased mortality in heart failure. However, the prognostic value of neurovascular interplay in heart failure (HF) is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that the muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) and forearm blood flow would predict mortality in chronic heart failure patients. Methods: One hundred and twenty two heart failure patients, NYHA II-IV, age 50 +/- 1 ys, LVEF 33 +/- 1%, and LVDD 7.1 +/- 0.2 mm, were followed up for one year. MSNA was directly measured from the peroneal nerve by microneurography. Forearm blood flow was obtained by venous occlusion plethysmography. The variables were analyzed by using univariate, stepwise multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: After one year, 34 pts died from cardiac death. The univariate analysis showed that MSNA, forearm blood flow, LVDD, LVEF, and heart rate were significant predictors of mortality. The multivariate analysis showed that only MSNA (P = 0.001) and forearm blood flow (P = 0.003) were significant independent predictors of mortality. On the basis of median levels of MSNA, survival rate was significantly lower in pts with >49 bursts/min. Similarly, survival rate was significantly lower in pts with forearm blood flow <1.87 ml/min/100 ml (P = 0.002). Conclusion: MSNA and forearm blood flow predict mortality rate in patients with heart failure. It remains unknown whether therapies that specifically target these abnormalities will improve survival in heart failure. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differential Persistence of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance Mutation Classes

Methods. We studied participants with acute and/or early HIV infection and TDR in 2 cohorts (San Francisco, California, and Sao Paulo, Brazil). We followed baseline mutations longitudinally and compared replacement rates between mutation classes with use of a parametric proportional hazards model. Results. Among 75 individuals with 195 TDR mutations, M184V/I became undetectable markedly faster than did nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutations (hazard ratio, 77.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 14.7-408.2; P < .0001), while protease inhibitor and NNRTI replacement rates were similar. Higher plasma HIV-1 RNA level predicted faster mutation replacement, but this was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 1.71 log(10) copies/mL; 95% CI, .90-3.25 log(10) copies/mL; P = .11). We found substantial person-to-person variability in mutation replacement rates not accounted for by viral load or mutation class (P < .0001). Conclusions. The rapid replacement of M184V/I mutations is consistent with known fitness costs. The long-term persistence of NNRTI and protease inhibitor mutations suggests a risk for person-to-person propagation. Host and/or viral factors not accounted for by viral load or mutation class are likely influencing mutation replacement and warrant further study.

Sao Paulo Lung Transplantation Waiting List: Patient Characteristics and Predictors of Death

Introduction. Nowadays, lung transplantation (LTx) allocation in Brazil is based mainly oil waiting time. There is a need to evaluate the equity of the current lung allocation system. Objectives. We sought to (1) determine the characteristics of registered patients on the waiting list and (2) identify predictors of death on the list. Materials and Methods. We analyzed the medical records as well as clinical and laboratory data of 164 patients registered on the waiting list from 2001 to June 2008. Predictors of mortality were obtained using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results. Patients who were registered on the waiting list showed a mean age of 36.1 +/- 15.0 vs. 42.2 +/- 15.7 years, considering those who did versus did not, die on the list, respectively (P = .054). Emphysema was the most prevalent underlying disease among the patients who did not die on the list (28.8%); its prevalence was low among the patients who died on the list (6.5%; P = .009). The following variables correlated with the probability of death on the waiting list: emphysema or bronchiectasis diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.15; P = .002); activated partial thromboplastin time > 30 seconds (HR = 3.28; P = .002); serum albumin > 3.5 g/dL (HR = 0.41; P = .033); and hemoglobin saturation > 85% (HR = 0.44; P = .031). Conclusions. Some variables seemed to predict death on the LTx waiting list; these characteristics should be used to improve the LTx allocation criteria in Brazil.

The Association of Hemoglobin A1c With Incident Heart Failure Among People Without Diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

OBJECTIVE-This study sought to investigate an association of HbA1c (A1C) with incident heart failure among individuals without diabetes and compare it to fasting glucose. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We studied 11,057 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study without heart failure or diabetes at baseline and estimated hazard ratios of incident heart failure by categories of A1C (<5.0, 5.0-5.4 [reference], 5 5-59, and 6.0-6.4%) and fasting glucose (<90, 90-99 [reference], 100-109, and 110-125 mg/dl) using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS-A total of 841 cases of incident heart failure hospitalization or deaths (International Classification of Disease, 9th/10th Revision, 428/150) occurred during a median follow-up of 14.1 years (incidence rate 5.7 per 1,000 person-years). After the adjustment for covariates including fasting glucose, the hazard ratio of incident heart failure was higher in individuals with A1C 6.0-6.4% (1.40 [95% CI, 1 09-1.79]) and 5.5-6.0% (1.16 [0.98-1 37]) as compared with the reference group. Similar results were observed when adjusting for insulin level or limiting to heart failure cases without preceding coronary events or developed diabetes during follow-up. In contrast, elevated fasting glucose was not associated with heart failure after adjustment for covariates and A1C. Similar findings were observed when the top quartile (A1C, 5.7-6.4%, and fasting glucose, 108-125 mg/dl) was compared with the lowest quartile (<5 2% and <95 mg/dl, respectively). CONCLUSIONS-Elevated A1C (>= 5.5-6 0%) was associated with incident heart failure in a middle-aged population without diabetes, suggesting that chronic hyperglycemia prior to the development of diabetes contributes to development of heart failure. Diabetes 59:2020-2026, 2010

Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Tongue and Floor of the Mouth: Analysis of Survival Rate and Independent Prognostic Factors in the Amazon Region

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) accounts for more than 95% of all malignant neoplasms in the oral cavity. Although several studies have shown the epidemiology of this cancer in Brazil, there do not seem to be any studies that describe the prognostic factors related to OSCC in the Amazon region. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the survival rate and prognostic significance of different factors in patients from this region affected by OSCC. Data from 85 patients with histologically confirmed squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue and floor of the mouth identified from the Ofir Loyola Hospital archives were collected and analyzed using univariate (log-rank test) and multivariate (Cox proportional hazard model) tests. The overall 5-year survival rate was found to be 27%. Univariate analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher for younger (<= 45 y) female patients, patients with T1-2 tumors and clinically clear neck nodes (N0), patients with early stage cancers (AJCC stage I-II), and patients treated with surgical procedures. However, multivariate analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher only in the younger patients and those who underwent surgical treatment. The age of the patient at the moment of diagnosis and treatment with surgical procedures were the only independent prognostic factors that affected the 5-year survival rate of the patients in this region.

Icodextrin as salvage therapy in peritoneal dialysis patients with refractory fluid overload

Background Icodextrin is a high molecular weight, starch-derived glucose polymer, which is capable of inducing sustained ultrafiltration over prolonged (12–16 hour) peritoneal dialysis (PD) dwells. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of icodextrin to alleviate refractory, symptomatic fluid overload and prolong technique survival in PD patients. Methods A prospective, open-label, pre-test/post-test study was conducted in 17 PD patients (8 females/9 males, mean age 56.8 ± 2.9 years) who were on the verge of being transferred to haemodialysis because of symptomatic fluid retention that was refractory to fluid restriction, loop diuretic therapy, hypertonic glucose exchanges and dwell time optimisation. One icodextrin exchange (2.5 L 7.5%, 12-hour dwell) was substituted for a long-dwell glucose exchange each day. Results Icodextrin significantly increased peritoneal ultrafiltration (885 ± 210 ml to 1454 ± 215 ml, p < 0.05) and reduced mean arterial pressure (106 ± 4 to 96 ± 4 mmHg, p < 0.05), but did not affect weight, plasma albumin concentration, haemoglobin levels or dialysate:plasma creatinine ratio. Diabetic patients (n = 12) also experienced improved glycaemic control (haemoglobin Alc decreased from 8.9 ± 0.7% to 7.9 ± 0.7%, p < 0.05). Overall PD technique survival was prolonged by a mean of 11.6 months (95% CI 6.0–17.3 months). On multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, extension of technique survival by icodextrin was only significantly predicted by baseline net daily peritoneal ultrafiltration (adjusted HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.13–5.62, p < 0.05). Conclusions Icodextrin significantly improved peritoneal ultrafiltration and extended technique survival in PD patients with symptomatic fluid overload, especially those who had substantially impaired peritoneal ultrafiltration.

Acute symptoms, not rectally administered sucralfate, predict for late radiation proctitis: Longer term follow-up of a phase III trial - trans-Tasman radiation oncology group

Image : To assess the potential for sucralfate administered rectally to reduce the risk of late rectal morbidity in patients undergoing nonconformal radiotherapy (RT) for carcinoma of the prostate and to study the variables potentially contributing to late rectal morbidity and particularly to explore the relationship between acute and late toxicity. Image : Eighty-six patients with localized prostate carcinoma were randomized in a double-blind, placebo-controlled study to a daily enema of 3 g of sucralfate in a 15-mL suspension or the same suspension without sucralfate. The enema began the first day of RT and was continued for 2 weeks after treatment completion. The primary end point of the study was acute Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG)/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) toxicity; however, the patients were followed for an additional 5 years on a 6-month basis. The evaluation included late RTOG/EORTC toxicity and a patient self-assessment questionnaire. Image : With a median follow-up of 5 years, the Kaplan-Meier probability of late Grade 2 RTOG/EORTC toxicity was 12% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2–22%) for placebo and 5% (95% CI 0–12%) for sucralfate (p = 0.26). The probability of late rectal bleeding was 59% (95% CI 45–73%) for placebo and 54% (95% CI 40–68%) for sucralfate. No statistically significant difference was found between the treatment arms for the peak incidence of any of the other patient self-assessment variables. Cox proportional hazards modeling indicated acute RTOG/EORTC toxicity of Grade 2 or greater was associated with a hazard ratio of 2.74 (95% CI 1.31–5.73) for the development of late toxicity of Grade 1 or greater. Substituting the patient self-assessment variables for acute RTOG/EORTC toxicity revealed that rectal pain of a moderate or severe grade during RT was the best predictor of the subsequent development of late toxicity, with a hazard ratio of 3.44 (95% CI 1.68–7). Image : The results of this study do not support the use of sucralfate administered rectally as a method for reducing the late toxicity of nonconformal RT for prostate cancer. There appears to be an association between the development of acute and subsequent late toxicity, although the nature of this association remains to be determined

Pregnancy rates and predictors in women with HIV/AIDS in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess incidence and predictors of first pregnancy among women with HIV/AIDS. METHODS: Prospective cohort study was conducted in Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, between 1996 and 2003. This study comprised 225 women with HIV/AIDS followed up until their first pregnancy or first censored event (hysterectomy, tubal ligation, menopause, 50 years of age, loss to follow-up, death or the end of December 2003). Pregnancy and abortion rates were estimated, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify baseline characteristics associated with pregnancy risk. RESULTS: The women were followed up for 565 person/years with a median follow-up of 3 years per women. The mean age was 32 years (SD: 7), and 54.7% were white. There were 60 pregnancies in 39 women, and 18 were terminated (induced abortions), accounting for a rate of 6.9% and 2.1% women/year, respectively. Repeated pregnancies occurred in 33.3% of the women (13/39). Higher pregnancy risk was seen among younger women (HR=3.42; 95%CI: 1.69;6.95) and those living with their partners (HR=1.89; 95%CI: 1.00;3.57). Lower pregnancy risk was associated with higher education level (HR=0.43; 95%CI: 0.19;0.99) and use of antiretroviral therapy (HR=061; 95%CI: 0.31;1.17). CONCLUSIONS: Lower pregnancy rates were found in our cohort than in the general population. Sociodemographic characteristics should be taken into consideration in the management of reproductive health in HIV-positive childbearing age women. Reproductive and family planning counseling must be incorporated into HIV/AIDS programs for women to help preventing HIV transmission to their partners and offspring.