International market selection model for large Chinese contractors

An increasing number of construction contractors are actively participating in international markets. One of the most fundamental issues confronting contractors moving offshore is where to do business. Although international market selection is a much studied topic, the market choices made by construction firms have attracted little attention. This paper aims to identify factors that influence internationalmarket selection and to develop an international market selection model for construction firms. The market entry choices of 39 large international Chinese contractors across 87 countries were investigated through logistic regression analysis. The results indicate that international contractors prefer to enter countries with large market potential, small culture distance, and, surprisingly, high country risk and high competitive intensity. Moreover, large, experienced contractors are more willing to compete in international markets. Contrary to generally accepted belief, geographic distance is not revealed to have any significant influence on international market selections by Chinese contractors. This paper will be of interest to contractors considering international market selection as part of their global expansion strategy.

Role of index bonds in an optimal dynamic asset allocation model with real subsistence consumption

We investigate the role of index bonds in a dynamic consumption and asset allocation model where the rate of real consumption at any given time cannot fall below a fixed level. An explicit form of the optimal consumption and portfolio rule for a class of Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility functions is derived. Consumption increases above the subsistence level only when wealth exceeds a threshold value. Risky investments in equity and nominal bonds are initially proportional to the excess of wealth over a lower bound, and then increase nonlinearly with wealth. The desirability of investing in the risky assets are related to the agent’s risk preference, the equity premium, and the inflation risk premium. The demand for index bonds is also obtained. The results should be useful for the management of defined benefit pension funds, university endowments, and other portfolios which have a withdrawal pre-commitment in real terms.

A sunburnt country – storms, surges and sea levels : of insurance and flooding rains

Increasing population pressures and life-style choices are resulting in more people living in areas that are at risk of inundation from rising sea levels and flooding. However, following natural disaster events, such as the 2011 Queensland floods, many Australians discovered they were uninsured. Either their insurance policies did not cover flood; or multiple (and confusing) water-related definitions led them to believe they had cover when they did not. Several theories are analysed to try to explain what is a world-wide underinsurance problem but these do not provide an answer to the problem. This research focuses on uncovering the reasons consumers fail to adequately insure for flood and other water-related events. Recent Australian legislative attempts to overcome insureds’ confusion of water related definitions are examined for this purpose. The authors conclude that Australian and other) legislators should set a maximum premium for a minimum amount of flood and sea related cover; and restrict the building and style of homes in flood prone areas.

Risk of Several Cancers is Higher in Urban Areas after Adjusting for Socioeconomic Status. Results from a Two-Country Population-Based Study of 18 Common Cancers

Some studies suggest that there are urban-rural variations in cancer incidence but whether these simply reflect urban-rural socioeconomic variation is unclear. We investigated whether there were urban-rural variations in the incidence of 18 cancers, after adjusting for socioeconomic status. Cancers diagnosed between 1995 and 2007 were extracted from the population-based National Cancer Registry Ireland and Northern Ireland Cancer Registry and categorised by urban-rural status, based on population density of area of residence at diagnosis (rural 15 people per hectare). Relative risks (RR) were calculated by negative binomial regression, adjusting for age, country and three area-based markers of socioeconomic status. Risks were significantly higher in both sexes in urban than rural residents with head and neck (males RR urban vs. rural = 1.53, 95 % CI 1.42-1.64; females RR = 1.29, 95 % CI 1.15-1.45), esophageal (males 1.21, 1.11-1.31; females 1.21, 1.08-1.35), stomach (males 1.36, 1.27-1.46; females 1.19, 1.08-1.30), colorectal (males 1.14, 1.09-1.18; females 1.04, 1.00-1.09), lung (males 1.54, 1.47-1.61; females 1.74, 1.65-1.84), non-melanoma skin (males 1.13, 1.10-1.17; females 1.23, 1.19-1.27) and bladder (males 1.30, 1.21-1.39; females 1.31, 1.17-1.46) cancers. Risks of breast, cervical, kidney and brain cancer were significantly higher in females in urban areas. Prostate cancer risk was higher in rural areas (0.94, 0.90-0.97). Other cancers showed no significant urban-rural differences. After adjusting for socioeconomic variation, urban-rural differences were evident for 12 of 18 cancers. Variations in healthcare utilization and known risk factors likely explain some of the observed associations. Explanations for others are unclear and, in the interests of equity, warrant further investigation. © 2014 The New York Academy of Medicine.

The value premium and time-varying volatility

Numerous studies have documented the failure of the static and conditional capital asset pricing models to explain the difference in returns between value and growth stocks. This paper examines the post-1963 value premium by employing a model that captures the time-varying total risk of the value-minus-growth portfolios. Our results show that the time-series of value premia is strongly and positively correlated with its volatility. This conclusion is robust to the criterion used to sort stocks into value and growth portfolios and to the country under review (the US and the UK). Our paper is consistent with evidence on the possible role of idiosyncratic risk in explaining equity returns, and also with a separate strand of literature concerning the relative lack of reversibility of value firms' investment decisions.

Within - versus between - country differences in risk attitudes: implications for cultural comparisons

Cultural comparisons enjoy increasing popularity in economics. Since cultural comparison must abandon random allocation to treatments, it is unclear whether differences found between countries can be attributed to country characteristics or are merely driven by differences in subject pools. In experiments in two Chinese cities and at two campuses in Ethiopia, we show that within-country differences are negligible. Differences between the two countries, on the other hand, are large.

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus via Boar Semen into Switzerland as an Example of a PRRSV-Free Country

Switzerland is currently porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) free, but semen imports from PRRSV-infected European countries are increasing. As the virus can be transmitted via semen, for example, when a free boar stud becomes infected, and the risk of its import in terms of PRRSV introduction is unknown, the annual probability to accidentally import the virus into Switzerland was estimated in a risk assessment. A quantitative stochastic model was set up with data comprised by import figures of 2010, interviews with boar stud owners and expert opinion. It resulted in an annual median number of 0.18 imported ejaculates (= imported semen doses from one collection from one donor) from PRRSV-infected boars. Hence, one infected ejaculate would be imported every 6 years and infect a mean of 10 sows. These results suggest that under current circumstances, there is a substantial risk of PRRSV introduction into Switzerland via imported boar semen and that measures to enhance safety of imports should be taken. The time from infection of a previously negative boar stud to its detection had the highest impact on the number of imported 'positive' ejaculates. Therefore, emphasis should be placed on PRRSV monitoring protocols in boar studs. Results indicated that a substantial increase in safety could only be achieved with much tighter sampling protocols than currently performed. Generally, the model could easily be customized for other applications like other countries or regions or even sow farms that want to estimate their risk when purchasing semen from a particular boar stud.

A risk-based model for inspection and maintenance of cross-country petroleum pipeline

The existing method of pipeline health monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, is both time-wasting and expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been presented. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests efficient design and operation philosophy, construction methodology and logical insurance plans. The risk-based model uses Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique, to identify the factors that influence failure on specific segments and analyzes their effects by determining probability of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis. From this, the effect of a failure caused by each risk factor can be established in terms of cost, and the cumulative effect of failure is determined through probability analysis. The technique does not totally eliminate subjectivity, but it is an improvement over the existing inspection method.

Analytic hierarchy process analyses risk of operating cross-country petroleum pipelines in India

The existing method of pipeline health monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, is both time-wasting and expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been presented. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests an efficient design and operation philosophy, construction methodology, and logical insurance plans. The risk-based model uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to identify the factors that influence failure on specific segments and to analyze their effects by determining probability of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis. From this, the effect of a failure caused by each risk factor can be established in terms of cost, and the cumulative effect of failure is determined through probability analysis. The technique does not totally eliminate subjectivity, but it is an improvement over the existing inspection method.

Country strategic risk and knowledge management:a proposed framework for improvement

The world is in a period of reflection about social and economic models. In particular there is a review of the capacities that countries have for improving their competitiveness. The experiences in a society are part of the process of learning and knowledge development in that society: especially in the development of communities. Risks appear continually in the process of the search for, analysis and implementation of solutions to problems. This paper discusses the issues related to the improvement of productivity and knowledge in a society, the risk that poor or even declining productivity brings to the communities and the need to develop people that support the decision making process in communities.The approach to improve the communities' development is through the design of a research programme in knowledge management based on distance learning. The research programme implementation is designed to provide value added to the decisions in communities in order to use collective intelligence, solve collective problems and to achieve goals that support local solutions. This program is organized and focused on four intelligence areas, artificial, collective, sentient and strategic. These areas are productivity related and seek to reduce the risk of lack of competitiveness through formal and integrated problem analysis. In a country such as Colombia, where different regions face varying problems to solve and there is a low level of infrastructure, the factors of production such as knowledge, skilled labour and "soft" infrastructure can be a way to develop the society.This entails using the local physical resources adequately for creating value with the support of people in the region to lead the analysis and search for solutions in the communities. The paper will describe the framework and programme and suggest how it could be applied in Colombia.

Coproducing flood risk management through citizen involvement: insights from cross-country comparison in Europe

Across Europe, citizens are increasingly expected to participate in the implementation of flood risk management (FRM), by engaging in voluntary-based activities to enhance preparedness, implementing property-level measures, and so forth. Although citizen participation in FRM decision making is widely addressed in academic literature, citizens’ involvement in the delivery of FRM measures is comparatively understudied. Drawing from public administration literature, we adopted the notion of “coproduction” as an analytical framework for studying the interaction between citizens and public authorities, from the decision-making process through to the implementation of FRM in practice. We considered to what extent coproduction is evident in selected European Union (EU) member states, drawing from research conducted within the EU project STAR-FLOOD (Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements). On the basis of a cross-country comparison between Flanders (Belgium), England (United Kingdom), France, the Netherlands, and Poland, we have highlighted the varied forms of coproduction and reflected on how these have been established within divergent settings. Coproduction is most prominent in discourse and practice in England and is emergent in France and Flanders. By contrast, FRM in the Netherlands and Poland remains almost exclusively reliant on governmental protection measures and thereby consultation-based forms of coproduction. Analysis revealed how these actions are motivated by different underlying rationales, which in turn shape the type of approaches and degree of institutionalization of coproduction. In the Netherlands, coproduction is primarily encouraged to increase societal resilience, whereas public authorities in the other countries also use it to improve cost-efficiency and redistribute responsibilities to its beneficiaries.

A risk worth taking: perceived risk as moderator of satisfaction, loyalty, and willingness-to-pay premium price

This research investigates the moderating role of perceived risk in the relationship between satisfaction, loyalty, and willingness to pay premium price (WTP). A total of 364 respondents were recruited from Amazon's Mechanical Turk panel. Financial, social, performance, and psychological risks have significant negative effects on the relationship between satisfaction and WTP, whereas only financial risks have significant negative effects on the relationship between loyalty and WTP. Using moderated mediation analysis, we found that the mediating effects of loyalty diminish significantly in high social risk conditions and diminish completely in high financial risk conditions.