Development of pollutant build-up parameters for MIKE URBAN for Southeast Queensland, Australia

Accurate estimation of input parameters is essential to ensure the accuracy and reliability of hydrologic and water quality modelling. Calibration is an approach to obtain accurate input parameters for comparing observed and simulated results. However, the calibration approach is limited as it is only applicable to catchments where monitoring data is available. Therefore, methodology to estimate appropriate model input parameters is critical, particularly for catchments where monitoring data is not available. In the research study discussed in the paper, pollutant build-up parameters derived from catchment field investigations and model calibration using MIKE URBAN are compared for three catchments in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Additionally, the sensitivity of MIKE URBAN input parameters was analysed. It was found that Reduction Factor is the most sensitive parameter for peak flow and total runoff volume estimation whilst Build-up rate is the most sensitive parameter for TSS load estimation. Consequently, these input parameters should be determined accurately in hydrologic and water quality simulations using MIKE URBAN. Furthermore, an empirical equation for Southeast Queensland, Australia for the conversion of build-up parameters derived from catchment field investigations as MIKE URBAN input build-up parameters was derived. This will provide guidance for allowing for regional variations in the estimation of input parameters for catchment modelling using MIKE URBAN where monitoring data is not available.

A study of water binding, mobility and dehydration in contact lens hydrogels using NMR

Hydrogel polymers are used for the manufacture of soft (or disposable) contact lenses worldwide today, but have a tendency to dehydrate on the eye. In vitro methods that can probe the potential for a given hydrogel polymer to dehydrate in vivo are much sought after. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has been shown to be effective in characterising water mobility and binding in similar systems (Barbieri, Quaglia et al., 1998, Larsen, Huff et al., 1990, Peschier, Bouwstra et al., 1993), predominantly through measurement of the spin-lattice relaxation time (T1), the spinspin relaxation time (T2) and the water diffusion coefficient (D). The aim of this work was to use NMR to quantify the molecular behaviour of water in a series of commercially available contact lens hydrogels, and relate these measurements to the binding and mobility of the water, and ultimately the potential for the hydrogel to dehydrate. As a preliminary study, in vitro evaporation rates were measured for a set of commercial contact lens hydrogels. Following this, comprehensive measurement of the temperature and water content dependencies of T1, T2 and D was performed for a series of commercial hydrogels that spanned the spectrum of equilibrium water content (EWC) and common compositions of contact lenses that are manufactured today. To quantify material differences, the data were then modelled based on theory that had been used for similar systems in the literature (Walker, Balmer et al., 1989, Hills, Takacs et al., 1989). The differences were related to differences in water binding and mobility. The evaporative results suggested that the EWC of the material was important in determining a material's potential to dehydrate in this way. Similarly, the NMR water self-diffusion coefficient was also found to be largely (if not wholly) determined by the WC. A specific binding model confirmed that the we was the dominant factor in determining the diffusive behaviour, but also suggested that subtle differences existed between the materials used, based on their equilibrium we (EWC). However, an alternative modified free volume model suggested that only the current water content of the material was important in determining the diffusive behaviour, and not the equilibrium water content. It was shown that T2 relaxation was dominated by chemical exchange between water and exchangeable polymer protons for materials that contained exchangeable polymer protons. The data was analysed using a proton exchange model, and the results were again reasonably correlated with EWC. Specifically, it was found that the average water mobility increased with increasing EWe approaching that of free water. The T1 relaxation was also shown to be reasonably well described by the same model. The main conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the hydrogel EWe is an important parameter, which largely determines the behaviour of water in the gel. Higher EWe results in a hydrogel with water that behaves more like bulk water on average, or is less strongly 'bound' on average, compared with a lower EWe material. Based on the set of materials used, significant differences due to composition (for materials of the same or similar water content) could not be found. Similar studies could be used in the future to highlight hydrogels that deviate significantly from this 'average' behaviour, and may therefore have the least/greatest potential to dehydrate on the eye.

Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

International rigid contact lens prescribing

Rigid lenses have been fitted less since the introduction of soft lenses nearly 40 years ago. Data that we have gathered from annual contact lens fitting surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA between 2000 and 2008 facilitate an accurate characterization of the pattern of the decline of rigid lens fitting during the first decade of this century. There is a trend for rigid lenses to be utilized primarily for refitting those patients who are already successful rigid lens wearers—most typically older females being refit with higher Dk materials. Rigid lenses are generally fitted on a full-time basis (four or more days of wear per week) without a planned replacement schedule. Orthokeratology is especially popular in the Netherlands, but is seldom prescribed in the other countries surveyed.

Trends in Australian contact lens prescribing during the first decade of the 21st Century (2000–2009)

Purpose: The aim was to document contact lens prescribing trends in Australia between 2000 and 2009. ---------- Methods: A survey of contact lens prescribing trends was conducted each year between 2000 and 2009. Australian optometrists were asked to provide information relating to 10 consecutive contact lens fittings between January and March each year. ---------- Results: Over the 10-year survey period, 1,462 practitioners returned survey forms representing a total of 13,721 contact lens fittings. The mean age (± SD) of lens wearers was 33.2 ± 13.6 years and 65 per cent were female. Between 2006 and 2009, rigid lens new fittings decreased from 18 to one per cent. Low water content lenses reduced from 11.5 to 3.2 per cent of soft lens fittings between 2000 and 2008. Between 2005 and 2009, toric lenses and multifocal lenses represented 26 and eight per cent, respectively, of all soft lenses fitted. Daily disposable, one- to two-week replacement and monthly replacement lenses accounted for 11.6, 30.0 and 46.5 per cent of all soft lens fittings over the survey period, respectively. The proportion of new soft fittings and refittings prescribed as extended wear has generally declined throughout the past decade. Multi-purpose lens care solutions dominate the market. Rigid lenses and monthly replacement soft lenses are predominantly worn on a full-time basis, whereas daily disposable soft lenses are mainly worn part-time.---------- Conclusions: This survey indicates that technological advances, such as the development of new lens materials, manufacturing methods and lens designs, and the availability of various lens replacement options, have had a significant impact on the contact lens market during the first decade of the 21st Century.

Central and peripheral oxygen transmissibility thresholds to avoid corneal swelling during open eye soft contact lens wear

This study was designed to derive central and peripheral oxygen transmissibility (Dk/t) thresholds for soft contact lenses to avoid hypoxia-induced corneal swelling (increased corneal thickness) during open eye wear. Central and peripheral corneal thicknesses were measured in a masked and randomized fashion for the left eye of each of seven subjects before and after 3 h of afternoon wear of five conventional hydrogel and silicone hydrogel contact lens types offering a range of Dk/t from 2.4 units to 115.3 units. Curve fitting for plots of change in corneal thickness versus central and peripheral Dk/t found threshold values of 19.8 and 32.6 units to avoid corneal swelling during open eye contact lens wear for a typical wearer. Although some conventional hydrogel soft lenses are able to achieve this criterion for either central or peripheral lens areas (depending on lens power), in general, no conventional hydrogel soft lenses meet both the central and peripheral thresholds. Silicone hydrogel contact lenses typically meet both the central and peripheral thresholds and use of these lenses therefore avoids swelling in all regions of the cornea. ' 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater 92B: 361–365, 2010

A ‘cost-per-wear’ model based on contact lens replacement frequency

Purpose: The aim was to construct and advise on the use of a cost-per-wear model based on contact lens replacement frequency, to form an equitable basis for cost comparison. ---------- Methods: The annual cost of professional fees, contact lenses and solutions when wearing daily, two-weekly and monthly replacement contact lenses is determined in the context of the Australian market for spherical, toric and multifocal prescription types. This annual cost is divided by the number of times lenses are worn per year, resulting in a ‘cost-per-wear’. The model is presented graphically as the cost-per-wear versus the number of times lenses are worn each week for daily replacement and reusable (two-weekly and monthly replacement) lenses.---------- Results: The cost-per-wear for two-weekly and monthly replacement spherical lenses is almost identical but decreases with increasing frequency of wear. The cost-per-wear of daily replacement spherical lenses is lower than for reusable spherical lenses, when worn from one to four days per week but higher when worn six or seven days per week. The point at which the cost-per-wear is virtually the same for all three spherical lens replacement frequencies (approximately AUD$3.00) is five days of lens wear per week. A similar but upwardly displaced (higher cost) pattern is observed for toric lenses, with the cross-over point occurring between three and four days of wear per week (AUD$4.80). Multifocal lenses have the highest price, with cross-over points for daily versus two-weekly replacement lenses at between four and five days of wear per week (AUD$5.00) and for daily versus monthly replacement lenses at three days per week (AUD$5.50).---------- Conclusions: This cost-per-wear model can be used to assist practitioners and patients in making an informed decision in relation to the cost of contact lens wear as one of many considerations that must be taken into account when deciding on the most suitable lens replacement modality.

Global trends in prescribing contact lenses for extended wear

Extended wear has long been the ‘holy grail’ of contact lenses by virtue of the increased convenience and freedom of lifestyle which they accord; however, this modality enjoyed only limited market success during the last quarter of the 20th century. The introduction of silicone hydrogel materials into the market at the beginning of this century heralded the promise of successful extended wear due to the superior oxygen performance of this lens type. To assess patterns of contact lens fitting, including extended wear, over the past decade, up to 1000 survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA each year between 2000 and 2009. Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fits or refits performed after receiving the survey form. Analysis of returned forms revealed that, averaged over this period, 9% of all soft lenses prescribed were for extended wear, with national figures ranging from 2% in Japan to 17% in Norway. The trend over the past decade has been for an increase from about 5% of all soft lens fits in 2000 to a peak of between 9 and 12% between 2002 and 2007, followed by a decline to around 7% in 2009. A person receiving extended wear lenses is likely to be an older female who is being refitted with silicone hydrogel lenses for full-time wear. Although extended wear has yet again failed to fulfil the promise of being the dominant contact lens wearing modality, it is still a viable option for many people.

Twenty first century trends in silicone hydrogel contact lens fitting : an international perspective

Silicone hydrogel contact lenses were introduced into the market in 1999. To assess prescribing trends of this lens type since then, up to 1000 survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA each year between 2000 and 2008. Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fits or refits performed after receiving the survey form. Analysis of returned forms revealed a rapid increase in the prescribing of silicone hydrogel lenses over the survey period. In 2008, silicone hydrogel lenses represented 36% of all soft lenses prescribed. The categorization of the majority of lenses prescribed as ‘refits’ is primarily attributed to the mass conversion of lens wearers from hydrogel to silicone hydrogel lenses. Silicone hydrogels may soon represent the majority of soft contact lenses prescribed.

Daily disposable contact lens prescribing around the world

Daily disposable contact lenses were introduced into the market 16 years ago. Data that we have gathered from annual contact lens fitting surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA between 2000 and 2008 indicates an overall increase in daily disposable lens fitting during this period. Daily disposable lenses are especially popular in Japan, Norway and the UK. There is a trend for these lenses to be fitted on a part-time basis. Males are over-represented in daily disposable lens fitting—a trend that is especially evident in Canada. Daily disposable lens wearers are about two years younger than wearers of reusable lenses in Japan and The Netherlands. The convenience and health benefits of daily disposable lenses are expected to fuel continued growth in this sector.

Demographics of international contact lens prescribing

Knowledge of differences in the demographics of contact lens prescribing between nations, and changes over time, can assist (a) the contact lens industry in developing and promoting various product types in different world regions, and (b) practitioners in understanding their prescribing habits in an international context. Data that we have gathered from annual contact lens fitting surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA between 2000 and 2008 reveal an ageing demographic, with Japan being the most youthful. The majority of fits are to females, with statistically significant differences between nations, ranging from 62 per cent of fits in Norway to 68 per cent in Japan. The small overall decline in the proportion of new fits, and commensurate increase in refits, over the survey periodmay indicate a growing rate of conversion of lens wearers to more advanced lens types, such as silicone hydrogels. � 2009 British Contact Lens Association.